Kelly the Dog Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Just now, HappyDays said: Correct. Especially on 1st down. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/ One of the reasons passing is successful on first is because it's a run down. If teams did it all the time, like this suggests, those numbers would go down quickly. I bet the best average for a runner is third and long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Shortchaz said: I’m guessing there is some long-term strategy at play here. Work on the passing game now (weather/young Qb/new receivers) so that it’s better when we need it. They only have 2 RBs on the active roster: Gore and Yeldon. They don't want Gore to get more than 20 carries per game and I don't think they really trust Yeldon to run the ball so they are obviously planning to pass a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 We have a 90 year old running back thrust into a starting role If you want #20 around in week 17 you need to limit his carries. Yeldons inability to consistently secure the ball isn't helping matters. I like the WR reverses and draws to help old Franky out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: This is the correct answer. Why anyone would want to take a step back is beyond me. You need to pass to win in this league. Back to the safetyand comfort of the known versus the unknown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted October 6, 2019 Author Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, mattynh said: I disagree. The bills run the ball a high percentage of the time when you compare to the nfl. Not today they weren't. There's not a single team in the league with a pass:run ratio of 3:1 and probably only a tiny handful that are over 2:1 38 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: This is the correct answer. Why anyone would want to take a step back is beyond me. You need to pass to win in this league. I'm not calling for them to take the air out of the ball. Just for Daboll to be a "little" more willing to think strategically about the whole team concept of managing a game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Simon said: Thanks man, didn't see the game today. 35 dropbacks looks a little better than 40. Plus if you listened closely in some of the coach interviews of late, Allen likely didn't actually have a concussion, just was in the protocol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderweb Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Agreed, but to achieve that he needs more depth at running back. He’s a bit afraid to overload Gore and who else does he got? Very true. Yeldon scares me Everytime he touches the ball that he's going to turn it over. We need Singletary back and possibly another RB instead of Yeldon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 I would guess if Devin Singletary was playing today, the run:pass ratio would have been a little closer to even. I don't think Daboll completely trusts Yeldon and as stated earlier, the staff didn't want to overload Frank Gore. Daboll's E-P offense seems to favor the pass by design, or so I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted October 6, 2019 Author Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 34-78-83 said: Plus if you listened closely in some of the coach interviews of late, Allen likely didn't actually have a concussion, just was in the protocol. Seriously? That would be stunning to me. Between the initial hit and his head bouncing off the turf, I assumed it was just a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Simon said: Seriously? That would be stunning to me. Between the initial hit and his head bouncing off the turf, I assumed it was just a foregone conclusion. yeah even after the game during one of the questions, McD answered that he would say Josh had a normal type practice week throwing the ball as opposed to not throwing in team drills as many assumed was part of his "limited" status and "in the protocol" status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Simon said: Thanks man, didn't see the game today. 35 dropbacks looks a little better than 40. Do you have a way to catch the game? Perhas on rerun on NFL Network? I recomend it. It cleaned out my clogged arteries with all the extra pressure. LOL. Yes, a few of the runs were not designed. 2 were B sneeks. A couple were scrambles. One was a nice slide when there was noplace to throw the ball, although someone took a cheap shot on his back anyway. A couple were designed run. Last run was to seal the game by keeping the clock moving. Whatch the gamw if you can. You will be impressed with Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 47 minutes ago, Simon said: Not today they weren't. There's not a single team in the league with a pass:run ratio of 3:1 and probably only a tiny handful that are over 2:1 I'm not calling for them to take the air out of the ball. Just for Daboll to be a "little" more willing to think strategically about the whole team concept of managing a game. Every week there are examples of 3:1 or 2:1 for portions of a game....like you are quoting. Week to week gameplans are developed based on the game and opponent. I get it that you did not like the game plan. I liked it not because it was super successful but because they Have a plan and are executing it. In the big picture they want to win superbowls not just make the playoffs. I believe You have to be able to be a pass first team or a run first team based on the matchup. The nfl is no longer a smash mouth run and atop the run type league. It is more strategy based on matchup league. Sometimes you need to smash and sometimes you need finesse. The thought they need to get “more conservative” is not something I could get behind. They need to be aggressive at the right times and work to reduce the errors by the qb. Just my opinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said: yeah even after the game during one of the questions, McD answered that he would say Josh had a normal type practice week throwing the ball as opposed to not throwing in team drills as many assumed was part of his "limited" status and "in the protocol" status. That doesn't mean that he didn't have a concussion, just that he resolved to the point where he could do football activities by Weds. He had 2 days It's varied from person to person. Again - the team does not choose to put players in the protocol like "protective custody" it's all based upon testing and neurologist exam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billrooter Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: Definitely need to be running more, in this game and in general. Allen is still too green to be Aaron Rodgers (who hasnt done much without a run game either) I agree but I am shocked they didn't bring in a third rb when Singletary was out, Yeldon has had some receptions but hardly carried it. I honestly kept thinking it was going going to bite them in the ass, but they are 4-1. Singletary they said was close last week. did I miss something anyone know if he had a setback? To pretty much totally rely on a 36 year old running back the Bills were playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Definitely need to pound the rock more. More jet sweeps. 3 a game at least. Yeldon actually hits the hole pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hebert19 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 3 hours ago, TroutDog said: I believe when Singletary comes back you’ll see more running. This. Frank can't carry it 30 times a game now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, billrooter said: I agree but I am shocked they didn't bring in a third rb when Singletary was out, Yeldon has had some receptions but hardly carried it. I honestly kept thinking it was going going to bite them in the ass, but they are 4-1. Singletary they said was close last week. did I miss something anyone know if he had a setback? To pretty much totally rely on a 36 year old running back the Bills were playing with fire. Hamstrings tend to linger so they probably wanted to give it another week with bye this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 5 hours ago, Simon said: Before that final drive when they went to clock-killing mode, I think the Bills pass:run ration was close to 3 : 1. Brian Daboll really needs to recognize what kind of defense he's got complimenting him and start approaching his play-calling duties a little less tactically and a little more strategically. There's no reason your 23yr old wet-behind-the-ears QB needs to be dropping back 40 times in a game in which you haven't played from behind for a single second. I think Coach needs to trust his defense and take pressure off his OLine by calling games a bit more conservatively. I see it both ways. As nice as it is that the Bills are winning right now, they probably aren't winning a Super Bowl this year. Even if they make the playoffs, they need crawl before they walk. The Bills under JA have zero playoff experience. Perhaps part of the pass-happy mentality is to focus more on getting Josh the reps and experience now in the passing game, so that he is better for it down the road, and sooner rather than later as a result (as frustrating as it may be at times, because it isn't always working). Lets face it, he still has a long way to go before we consider him a prolific passer. He's improving in certain aspects, and aside from last week, the Bills have been able to overcome whatever shortcomings the Bills have had in the passing game. Maybe part of the thought process is that, because they have such a good defense, they can afford to be aggressive in their offensive play calling. Either it's going to work and the Bills will start pulling away, or it doesn't work and the defense will bail them out, and 4th quarter Josh will step up and do just enough...WHILE he's still learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Lurker said: Teams are over-playing the run, daring Allen to be the difference maker. I like that Daboll has enough confidence in Josh to say, "OK, have it your way. We'll beat you through the air" I like that approach against all teams except for NE. With how well our dedense fares against their offense, just manage the game and run the ball. Keep it close, limit giveaways, and you give yourself a real shot to win. Granted, the Bills did pretty much the opposite last week and still had a good chance in the end, but perhaps without those giveaways, they play with a lead at home againt them. Edited October 7, 2019 by Drunken Pygmy Goat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 4 hours ago, matter2003 said: Analytics shows it is almost never a better choice to run instead of pass based on many factors. I don't know about analytics, but I don't think it's as simple as some posters say. There is an offensive game plan. It's developed by Daboll, but it's certainly approved by McDermott. Daboll doesn't create it in a vacuum. That game plan obviously was based on the notion that the Bills could throw the ball effectively against the Titans. So, sure, we'd like to see the clock running on that second last drive, but the Bills thought they could complete passes, and if they'd completed any, the clock WOULD have been running. It's a head in the sand approach to say we're just going to run it three times to keep the clock running and then punt. That's really conservative with five or six minutes left in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 13 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said: One of the reasons passing is successful on first is because it's a run down. If teams did it all the time, like this suggests, those numbers would go down quickly. I bet the best average for a runner is third and long. Gillislee says, “hi!” But how many times have we heard that Allen isn’t a true franchise QB because he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game? Mahomes, Goff, Minshew, Matt Ryan, and Dak Prescott all got over 300 passing yards yesterday. I mean, stats are important. Amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 I actually feel like passing the ball was the only way to really move it yesterday. The run game didn't do anything until that clock killing drive. I had no issue with them throwing more yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Agreed, but to achieve that he needs more depth at running back. He’s a bit afraid to overload Gore and who else does he got? If only there was a third legitimate option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zevo Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 With this defense there is zero need to throw 45 times and 400 yds to win a game...it’s smart efficient football.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 hours ago, Simon said: Before that final drive when they went to clock-killing mode, I think the Bills pass:run ration was close to 3 : 1. Brian Daboll really needs to recognize what kind of defense he's got complimenting him and start approaching his play-calling duties a little less tactically and a little more strategically. There's no reason your 23yr old wet-behind-the-ears QB needs to be dropping back 40 times in a game in which you haven't played from behind for a single second. I think Coach needs to trust his defense and take pressure off his OLine by calling games a bit more conservatively. meh who cares after a win?? LOL / sarc Seriously though, this was brought up before. It may not look like it, but the Bills do have a good mixture with the pun and pass. Buffalo is 7th in YPg with 139.6 yds and it's NOT because of Josh's running like last season. He's only averaging 31.6 ypg compared to 52.6 ypg from last season. It just appears that they pass more than run. Maybe its because they seem to focus on the run later in games tied or with a lead. Or that we are all focused on watching Josh make that next dumb mistake or 2 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 I think this is an overreaction. Not saying the offense of great by any means, but they are moving the ball pretty well and Allen has been pretty good. Turnovers have been killing them which is why we are not seeing more points. I think Daboll is doing a good job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 A young QB with limited experience shouldn’t have to feel that he’s putting the team on his back every play. We need a solid running game to take the pressure off of Allen and have him more as a game manager, until he learns when and what to do with the ball.....IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sweats said: A young QB with limited experience shouldn’t have to feel that he’s putting the team on his back every play. We need a solid running game to take the pressure off of Allen and have him more as a game manager, until he learns when and what to do with the ball.....IMO. Isnt that what we saw on the game icing drive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 OL had a few guys out. Daboll may have been leaning on the perceived strengths of the group that was out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 hours ago, Simon said: Before that final drive when they went to clock-killing mode, I think the Bills pass:run ration was close to 3 : 1. Brian Daboll really needs to recognize what kind of defense he's got complimenting him and start approaching his play-calling duties a little less tactically and a little more strategically. There's no reason your 23yr old wet-behind-the-ears QB needs to be dropping back 40 times in a game in which you haven't played from behind for a single second. I think Coach needs to trust his defense and take pressure off his OLine by calling games a bit more conservatively. there was no yards running against a stout defense. I do wish McKenzie would be on the field more than he is though. Seems like everytime he touches the Ball something good happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: This offence still is terrible. With a good running attack & good QB'ing they need have tp start scoring more. Daboll is still not winning the coaching battle. Terrible ? I disagree… Raw and in need of some improvement yes, but equally full of potential. They move the ball, then They seem to stumble some but they end strong which is under appreciated Edited October 7, 2019 by ddaryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSarcasm Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) Honestly I'm all for a heavy pass strategy. They should be done with Rex Ryan ball. You have a young QB and in order for him to grow and get better he has got to throw the ball and make reads- he can't do this if he is handing the ball off 80% of the time. ? Edited October 7, 2019 by MrSarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 i'm over simplifying......but you take what the defense gives you ten mostly overloaded to stop the run and did alot of man to man on wr's whats troubling to me, is when the play called isnt there and josh is in scramble mode our wr's are not working back to ball and getting open 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSarcasm Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 12 hours ago, NC Book said: Definitely need to pound the rock more. More jet sweeps. 3 a game at least. Yeldon actually hits the hole pretty hard. Agree with everything except for the Yeldon part. Mr. Fumbles should not be running the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just now, papazoid said: whats troubling to me, is when the play called isnt there and josh is in scramble mode our wr's are not working back to ball and getting open I noticed this some on the INT. There needs to be a better approach to coming back to the ball when Josh is scrambling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring it Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 hours ago, Teddy KGB said: What about the end of the game when they ran it on them when they knew it was coming? What is the basis of your post ? With two backup lineman and without your starting center no less! Sign of a good team is running when they need to! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 The main fact is Josh simply looks better when the Bills are passing at a higher tick. When they are trying to run then make the odd throw and Allen is out of rhythm he gets less accurate. You want the best version of Josh Allen? You gotta throw it. It is just who he is. I thought Daboll called a pretty good game yesterday. There were a couple of calls he would want back but every coach has those. For the most part he did a good job. 10 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I don't know about analytics, but I don't think it's as simple as some posters say. There is an offensive game plan. It's developed by Daboll, but it's certainly approved by McDermott. Daboll doesn't create it in a vacuum. That game plan obviously was based on the notion that the Bills could throw the ball effectively against the Titans. So, sure, we'd like to see the clock running on that second last drive, but the Bills thought they could complete passes, and if they'd completed any, the clock WOULD have been running. It's a head in the sand approach to say we're just going to run it three times to keep the clock running and then punt. That's really conservative with five or six minutes left in the game. And the second play was specifically designed that if the primary option was not there then the easy throw into the flat for the tight end kept the clock running. Unfortunately it wasn't a good throw and Knox dropped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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