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John Wawrow: "better chance of the Bills moving up for a player than moving back"


Logic

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1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Didn't that dude once say he would suck D to get Austin Proehl and Ray Ray McCloud?

It could simply be Sherlock's thing, so it might not be that much of a stretch for him/her

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Everyone hopes to uncover late round gems. That goes with out saying. Percentages say that the top of the draft produces stars though.

QBs and Pass Rushers

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7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, thats why Free Agency was such a big win for Beane.  With 10 draft picks too, he has the ability to anything 

 

With our cap space this and next year, if we don't feel too good about what is in the 2020 draft (due to underclassman) and plan on picking after 20ish. You could argue that next year's one could be easily on the table to shoot up for a generational blue chip pass rusher

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14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Would I? No.

 

Should they? Only if they believe that the guy they're targeting is a future all pro.

 

They literally do not have a single star player on the roster.  It would make some sense.  Hate to give up next year’s first but if they think they’ve found their QB, all options should be on the table.

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2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

With our cap space this and next year, if we don't feel too good about what is in the 2020 draft (due to underclassman) and plan on picking after 20ish. You could argue that next year's one could be easily on the table to shoot up for a generational blue chip pass rusher

 

Yeah, and if we move up high from 9 it may take that.  

 

I still remain skeptical we would move up from 9 just because the cost is so high and the draft is so rich in the first 2 rounds.  I am firmly convinced, and have been all offseason, that Beane will be moving around this draft and will not end it with 10 players drafted.  I have just felt that it was more likely to be after our first pick and Beane could even make more than one trade up in the draft.  

 

With the number of FA's we signed, everything has certainly changed.  He signed about twice as many as I excepted.  So now anything is possible and I think its a lock that at some point, maybe even more than once, Beane will be making upward moves to get a player.

 

If I was to make a mock now...I think I would have the Bills stay at 9 but then make a move to get back into the first to grab another player.  Maybe thats DK then Simmons.  Or DT/EDGE then TJ/Fant.    Or DT/EDGE then Harry/AJ Brown.  So many ways this could play out.  

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Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, and if we move up high from 9 it may take that.  

 

I still remain skeptical we would move up from 9 just because the cost is so high and the draft is so rich in the first 2 rounds.  I am firmly convinced, and have been all offseason, that Beane will be moving around this draft and will not end it with 10 players drafted.  I have just felt that it was more likely to be after our first pick and Beane could even make more than one trade up in the draft.  

 

With the number of FA's we signed, everything has certainly changed.  He signed about twice as many as I excepted.  So now anything is possible and I think its a lock that at some point, maybe even more than once, Beane will be making upward moves to get a player.

 

If I was to make a mock now...I think I would have the Bills stay at 9 but then make a move to get back into the first to grab another player.  Maybe thats DK then Simmons.  Or DT/EDGE then TJ/Fant.    Or DT/EDGE then Harry/AJ Brown.  So many ways this could play out.  

I agree, I think they stay at 9 (unless they get an incredulous offer) but trade up in spots after that 

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4 minutes ago, familykwi said:

Can't imagine why I'm being insulted for not knowing the guy, but thanks for clarifying that.  Apparently I don't read sites he contributes to. 

 

What I have read indicates the cost of moving up, at the top of the draft in particular, does not usually result in a net gain.  I also believe there is enough evidence to support the idea that the draft is an inexact science, so putting more eggs in a single basket to get a particular guy instead of identifying multiple guys is statistically unsound.  Not every high pick is a stud and not every stud was a high pick.  That's all I'm saying.  I'd rather have multiple chances personally.

 

I'd love to go back over the last 10 drafts for example and see how many trade up guys paid off vs trade down players.  Julio was a hit and so far, so is Mahomes, but Watkins was a real miss.  I wonder how it all actually shook out.

It is not an insult to state more people know him than you.  It is a fact and he is not only the AP reporter but has contributed to the wall for a while.

 

I agree with you on general about moving up vs moving down expect in two circumstances:

  • The player you want has specific skills which fit your scheme hard to find and may not be available
  • You may not have space for slots so packaging up helps you from just not cutting your draft picks

Personally I prefer to trade picks for extra picks following year.  It gives you two things - accumulate number of picks and gives you picks during year to trade if a player becomes available.

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The more I think about it, the more I think I don’t want them trading their 2nd/3rd round pick just to move up a few spots in the first round for a non QB...The Bills are not 1 player away from contending for a super bowl imo...they are going to need another solid draft to build the core of the team.

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18 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

I’ve on occasion had a story or two linked on TwoBillsDrive.

 

jw

You stated that you usually don't posts opinions about the draft. That is in contrast to your copious thoughts on exotic beers. Your haughty sneering of the favored beers of the blue collar population that leans toward Miller and Bud is a an example how you set yourself apart in the upper balcony of the opera house. :)

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1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Josh Allen please.

Gamechanger.

1 hour ago, familykwi said:

Trading for Bennett was completely different.  That roster did not have numerous holes.  We've filled some, but not all holes in FA.  I did blow a gasket at the "high end talent" Watkins trade.  I'm also not in love with the trades up for both Allen and Johnson last year. 

What didn't you love about the trade up for Johnson?

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1 hour ago, TPS said:

This regime doesn’t let info like that leak. 


Meh. They literally let a picture of their QB board from last year get onto Twitter. Ben Albright knew for like 4 months that the Bills were all in on Allen. They're not infallible.

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Me posting this thread during a slow news time and then vanishing:

giphy.gif

I was only away from the computer for two hours, and this thing is already at 6 pages.

Man, I love how crazy Bills fans are! ?

1 hour ago, john wawrow said:

 

That warrow guy's a dope.

 

jw


He's alright.

I mean he's no Paul Westerberg, but....few are.

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Just now, eball said:

I just want the Bills to have a Josh Allen on the field for every play except special teams. 


I mean....can we teach one of the Joshes to kick a ball? Having a Josh Allen in all three phases would really be ideal.

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Just now, Logic said:


I mean....can we teach one of the Joshes to kick a ball? Having a Josh Allen in all three phases would really be ideal.

 

That’s the ultimate goal, but it will take time. 

 

#BuffaloAllens

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I know he comes to the board from time to time and I respect that - but IF he has any “source” on this it is simply a plant to get other teams thinking - the days of the Bills leaking anything are over. I wouldn’t put any stock in this.

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2 hours ago, Logic said:



Verrrrry interesting. In one of the comments below, someone asks him if thats just opinion or if he's actually heard anything. He replies that he doesn't really HAVE draft opinions. Take that for what you will...

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if we went back but then up again with later picks. I think we come out with less players than we currently have picks but that could spin a lot of ways still 

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would be shocked if they moved up for Oliver.  There is a strong chance he would be there at 9 and Wilkins certainly will be there at 9, and Oliver isnt that much better of a prospect than Wilkins.  Simmons is better than both and can be had later too.  

 

Im guessing if Beane is willing to move up it will be to try and nab Quennin or Allen.  Either would be a sick addition.  

 

How bad would this board melt down if the Beane traded up to get DK?  LOL.  This board hates trade ups for WR's hehe

Word on the street (i.e., albert breer) is that some teams have oliver pegged significantly higher than the conventional mock draft wisdom.

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it is all about getting as many playmakers on the field as possible .  If they love a player and can get up and get him for the cost of their second round pick then go for it.  I wonder is Wonder is Williams or Bosa slip to 5.  Maybe a second qb goes top 5 and somebody likes Allen more than Bosa.  

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