Not really a weak draft for QBs - likely Trade Down opportunities

[IgotBILLStopay]

We have been constantly hearing 2019 will be a weak draft for QBs. But almost any mock I look at has four QBs going in the first round - Haskins, Jones, Murray and Lock.

 

I remember Wentz / Goff were also projected to go later in the first but by the time the draft came round they went 1 and 2. A year later, teams drafting QBs in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes!! and Watson) have come off well - despite mocks in January projecting these guys to be taken much later. And the rookies last year  have done fine and re-energized their respective franchises.

 

Given the recent positive experience with rookie QBs, I predict an early run on QBs this year too with Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville & Washington (maybe Arizona too) all wanting QBs and it will likely take moving into the top 10 to get any of em. Dammit - why did we have to win that meaningless Miami game in Week 17?

 

What does that mean for us? Trade Down Baby!! and get a WR, OL and DL in the first two rounds with an extra 1st or second next year.

[RPbillsfan]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

We have been constantly hearing 2019 will be a weak draft for QBs. But almost any mock I look at has four QBs going in the first round - Haskins, Jones, Murray and Lock.

 

I remember Wentz / Goff were also projected to go later in the first but by the time the draft came round they went 1 and 2. A year later, teams drafting QBs in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes!! and Watson) have come off well - despite mocks in January projecting these guys to be taken much later. And the rookies last year  have done fine and re-energized their respective franchises.

 

Given the recent positive experience with rookie QBs, I predict an early run on QBs this year too with Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville & Washington (maybe Arizona too) all wanting QBs and it will likely take moving into the top 10 to get any of em. Dammit - why did we have to win that meaningless Miami game in Week 17?

 

What does that mean for us? Trade Down Baby!! and get a WR, OL and DL in the first two rounds with an extra 1st or second next year.

I'm thinking three first round QB's in Haskins, Lock and Jones of Duke.  Murray is wildcard as his dynamic plsymaking but size limitations and possible baseball choice make him a "buyer beware" kind of guy you may not want to risk your first round pick.

 

Assume Flacco will fill one of the teams needs.  Thinking Dolphins have too many holes to risk a QB and may be looking at buildingbthe roster, eating a bad year and looking for a QB in 2020.

 

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

Giants and Jags ahead of Bills in the draft order, my thought is Jags move ahead of Giants, trade with Bucs to go from 7 to 5.  Giants grab BPA and see if a QB like Murray falls to them in 2nd round.  Broncos and Redskins left, thinking Flacco goes to skins and Broncos can stay where they are and get 2nd QB of their choice as I think Haskins is going to Jags.

 

Hence, no real trade down for Bills due to QB needs, our best bet is Falcons at 14 looking for big DT need.

[Mountain Man]

13 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

We have been constantly hearing 2019 will be a weak draft for QBs. But almost any mock I look at has four QBs going in the first round - Haskins, Jones, Murray and Lock..

It is a weak QB draft. All 4 of those are weaker than all the top 4 last year. That Jones is being talked about in round 1 is laughable. There hasn't been a QB in years who screams career backup more than Jones

[Alphadawg7]

What’s even better is that this draft is deep at the top on defense.  So that means QBs will slide to our pick too most likely putting us in a really good spot for teams (like Washington) to move up and get their QB without giving up an RG3 or Wentz like Bounty.  

 

So I think we will potentially have a lot of interest in our pick, and as I sit here now I think there is a strong chance we trade with Washington.

[IgotBILLStopay]

 

Quote

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

I will disagree with you there. Dont think either Flacco or Tannehill will be attractive to any of the teams as a first option.

2 minutes ago, Mountain Man said:

It is a weak QB draft. All 4 of those are weaker than all the top 4 last year. That Jones is being talked about in round 1 is laughable. There hasn't been a QB in years who screams career backup more than Jones

These 4 might be objectively weaker than last year's big 4 - but that is not the point of my post. I only mean weaker in terms of draft position relative to last year. All I am saying is that teams might find them good enough to trade into the top 10 or 12 to get them.

[Doc Brown]

Being one spot in front of Denver may be an advantage.  If some team really likes a kid they may try to leapfrog the Broncos.  I don't think we trade with the Fins being in our division, but you never know.  Some teams with aging quarterbacks may make a suprise move and look to move up to draft their QB for the future such as the Redskins, Chargers, and Saints.  Kind of like when the Chiefs moved up for Mahomes.  Just brought that up in case anybody forgot that we could've had Mahomes.

[GunnerBill]

I disagree. I still think it is a weak QB draft. Though Murray declaring does make things interesting. 

[stevewin]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

 in case anybody forgot that we could've had Mahomes.

This is the funniest thing I ever read on this board ? 

[IgotBILLStopay]

Besides Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville, Washington and Arizona (for Murray), there are also rumors suggesting TB might part ways with Jameis WInston and the Raiders may want to move on from Derek Carr. That makes it 8 teams having some interest in drafting a QB. I think if Arizona drafts Murray at #1, all bets are off and we will definitely trade down.

 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=25727321

[Da webster guy]

Tampa and Colts got some serious boosts from trading back last year, and they still got Quentin Nelson and Tampa got Vita Vea.   On top of that they picked up massive draft capital.  Tampa took two excellent corners in the second round with our picks.

 

Also remember two years at this times most mocks had Mahomes as 2nd or 3rd rounder.   QB's will definitely shoot up the boards before April.    Teams get crazy over QB's.

I'm praying for a tradeback.

[mjt328]

41 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

We have been constantly hearing 2019 will be a weak draft for QBs. But almost any mock I look at has four QBs going in the first round - Haskins, Jones, Murray and Lock.

 

I remember Wentz / Goff were also projected to go later in the first but by the time the draft came round they went 1 and 2. A year later, teams drafting QBs in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes!! and Watson) have come off well - despite mocks in January projecting these guys to be taken much later. And the rookies last year  have done fine and re-energized their respective franchises.

 

Given the recent positive experience with rookie QBs, I predict an early run on QBs this year too with Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville & Washington (maybe Arizona too) all wanting QBs and it will likely take moving into the top 10 to get any of em. Dammit - why did we have to win that meaningless Miami game in Week 17?

 

What does that mean for us? Trade Down Baby!! and get a WR, OL and DL in the first two rounds with an extra 1st or second next year.

 

 

It's still a little early on the mock draft front.

Once the Super Bowl is over, the media will start putting more resources into draft coverage.  They will start diving into game film, and begin talking to NFL scouts to see what they really think.  That's when some of these QB prospects start sliding in the mock drafts.

 

I'm not sold yet that an NFL franchise will invest a Top-10 pick into Kyler Murray.  We all know how GMs shy away from short quarterbacks.  Much less one that hasn't 100% committed to playing this sport.

 

With that said - It would be really nice if some trade-down possibilities present themselves.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

29 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Besides Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville, Washington and Arizona (for Murray), there are also rumors suggesting TB might part ways with Jameis WInston and the Raiders may want to move on from Derek Carr. That makes it 8 teams having some interest in drafting a QB. I think if Arizona drafts Murray at #1, all bets are off and we will definitely trade down.

 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=25727321

 

 

Arizona isn't taking Murray.  That was a college coach saying something nice about an opponent last fall and getting blown out of proportion the moment he was hired.

 

Tampa also isn't taking QB early, they brought Arians in to work with Jamies in a vertical offense, which should fit his skill set.

 

There's speculation here locally the Bengals may be looking at a QB too, Dalton's contract is coming up and the team has all but officially hired Zac Taylor as their new coach, who has worked with Tannehill in the past.  The Cincy sports guy on the radio this morning was saying there's some real feelings on trading Dalton now when they can, bring in Tanny has a FA and draft the QB of the future.

 

Oakland / Gruden I wouldn't rule out from doing anything.

 

Denver / NYG / Miami / Jacksonville / Washington are all certainly in play, though there's speculation of Denver trading for Nick Mullens from San Fran after they hired San Fran's QB coach as their OC.

[gjv001]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Being one spot in front of Denver may be an advantage.  If some team really likes a kid they may try to leapfrog the Broncos.  I don't think we trade with the Fins being in our division, but you never know.  Some teams with aging quarterbacks may make a suprise move and look to move up to draft their QB for the future such as the Redskins, Chargers, and Saints.  Kind of like when the Chiefs moved up for Mahomes.  Just brought that up in case anybody forgot that we could've had Mahomes.

I hope you are kidding. We lucked out. Not only did we get the better QB, but we also got Edmonds and White. 

[Rc2catch]

The closer it gets to the draft the more the run on quarterbacks will go. 

In a league where you have to have a franchise quarterback plenty of teams will jump in. Although 9 isn’t ideal it’s not a bad spot as others have said with Denver behind. 

Best case scenario only one quarterback is taken in the top 8, then someone will sell that farm to jump in front of Denver and we can fleece Elway for even more picks if they don’t add someone in free agency 

[MJS]

Quarterbacks always get over drafted. That's good for us if we want to trade down.

 

I'm rooting for all the QB's to put on good performances at the combine, workouts, senior bowl, pro days, etc.

[whatdrought]

A weak class doesnt always dictate draft position for QB. It’s more about value. A team is less likely to trade 2 firsts+ for a guy less certain. That affects the overall worth of the pick.

[CEN-CAL17]

Hopefully we can get Minnesota to trade. They jump Denver to grab QB Lock or Jones.

 

We use pick 19 to grab TJ Hockenson and about 6 picks later trade back into the 1st and grab Josh Jacobs.

[billspro]

I haven’t watched them yet but I will be surprised if they are as good as last years group. 

[CaptnCoke11]

4 hours ago, gjv001 said:

I hope you are kidding. We lucked out. Not only did we get the better QB, but we also got Edmonds and White. 

50 TDs and AFC championship game his first season playing ??   

 

Sign me me up for that over a MLB and a CB

Edited January 19, 2019 by CaptnCoke11

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

We have been constantly hearing 2019 will be a weak draft for QBs. But almost any mock I look at has four QBs going in the first round - Haskins, Jones, Murray and Lock.

 

I remember Wentz / Goff were also projected to go later in the first but by the time the draft came round they went 1 and 2. A year later, teams drafting QBs in the first round (Trubisky, Mahomes!! and Watson) have come off well - despite mocks in January projecting these guys to be taken much later. And the rookies last year  have done fine and re-energized their respective franchises.

 

Given the recent positive experience with rookie QBs, I predict an early run on QBs this year too with Denver, NYG, Miami, Jacksonville & Washington (maybe Arizona too) all wanting QBs and it will likely take moving into the top 10 to get any of em. Dammit - why did we have to win that meaningless Miami game in Week 17?

 

What does that mean for us? Trade Down Baby!! and get a WR, OL and DL in the first two rounds with an extra 1st or second next year.

 

 

 

Goff was always considered very highly ranked.

 

Wentz played at a small school, so it took things like the Senior Bowl and interviews to show that he belonged.

 

"Plenty of quarterback prospects from small schools have found success in the NFL, but they lean on the pre-draft process to prove themselves. The start of Wentz's meteoric rise in NFL Draft circles really happened at the Senior Bowl. In January, Wentz went down to Mobile, Ala. on a mission to prove he belonged despite playing in the FCS. He approached the week of practices at the Senior Bowl knowing he had the mental makeup to fit in. His size, 6’5, made him stand out even next to players from Alabama and Clemson who had just recently played for the FBS national title. The issue was whether the speed of the game would catch up and ultimately overtake Wentz. It didn’t. He looked as comfortable as any quarterback there and quickly showed off his leadership. When the North team did warmups, it was often Wentz leading the way. He was the one directing players, and giving encouragement after a blown play. He was doing all the little things you see the best quarterbacks in the NFL doing."

 

"'I think about a month ago, Carson Wentz was an idle curiosity, a I-AA kid from North Dakota State,' draft analyst Mike Mayock said on NFL Network. 'He went to the Senior Bowl, confirmed his status as a top-tier quarterback, came to the Combine and I think had the cleanest workout of anybody in terms of arm strength, his feet looked good, he showed his athletic ability. For my money, he made some money.'"

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2016/4/21/11477652/jared-goff-carson-wentz-2016-nfl-draft

 

Not the same thing as this year at all. None of these guys are coming out of nowhere from North Dakota State. This really is a pretty weak draft for QBs. It's not as weak as 2013, but it's not a good year.

 

 

 

And while trading down could happen, this isn't the year when it's an obvious likelihood.

 

This year the numbers for us can come from free agency. We're in good cap shape for the first time in a very long time.

 

What they need from the draft this year is core guys, impact guys. And the odds on getting that kind of guy usually drop as you trade down. I'm nearly always hoping for a trade down. Not so much this year.

 

If a QB or two does slide above us, it will hopefully push down a real impact player to us.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Thurman#1

[TigerJ]

6 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

I'm thinking three first round QB's in Haskins, Lock and Jones of Duke.  Murray is wildcard as his dynamic plsymaking but size limitations and possible baseball choice make him a "buyer beware" kind of guy you may not want to risk your first round pick.

 

Assume Flacco will fill one of the teams needs.  Thinking Dolphins have too many holes to risk a QB and may be looking at buildingbthe roster, eating a bad year and looking for a QB in 2020.

 

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

Giants and Jags ahead of Bills in the draft order, my thought is Jags move ahead of Giants, trade with Bucs to go from 7 to 5.  Giants grab BPA and see if a QB like Murray falls to them in 2nd round.  Broncos and Redskins left, thinking Flacco goes to skins and Broncos can stay where they are and get 2nd QB of their choice as I think Haskins is going to Jags.

 

Hence, no real trade down for Bills due to QB needs, our best bet is Falcons at 14 looking for big DT need.

I think the indications are pretty strong that Kyler Murray strongly prefers football.  There are already mocks out there in internet land that have him going in the top ten.  Stay tuned.

[formerlyofCtown]

7 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

I'm thinking three first round QB's in Haskins, Lock and Jones of Duke.  Murray is wildcard as his dynamic plsymaking but size limitations and possible baseball choice make him a "buyer beware" kind of guy you may not want to risk your first round pick.

 

Assume Flacco will fill one of the teams needs.  Thinking Dolphins have too many holes to risk a QB and may be looking at buildingbthe roster, eating a bad year and looking for a QB in 2020.

 

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

Giants and Jags ahead of Bills in the draft order, my thought is Jags move ahead of Giants, trade with Bucs to go from 7 to 5.  Giants grab BPA and see if a QB like Murray falls to them in 2nd round.  Broncos and Redskins left, thinking Flacco goes to skins and Broncos can stay where they are and get 2nd QB of their choice as I think Haskins is going to Jags.

 

Hence, no real trade down for Bills due to QB needs, our best bet is Falcons at 14 looking for big DT need.

I think Tannehill goes to Jags or Skins if released or traded.

Edited January 19, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Inigo Montoya]

I can see Flacco and Foles starting for teams next year.  Not so sure about Tannehill.  I see Tannehill as a higher priced, quality backup on a playoff contending team with a little bit of cap space to burn.  A little bit of QB insurance.

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[Green Lightning]

5 hours ago, gjv001 said:

I hope you are kidding. We lucked out. Not only did we get the better QB, but we also got Edmonds and White. 

Um, tough sell on that take.

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

I think the indications are pretty strong that Kyler Murray strongly prefers football.  There are already mocks out there in internet land that have him going in the top ten.  Stay tuned.

 He should stick with baseball. He would have a mighty small strike zone!

[Bangarang]

6 hours ago, gjv001 said:

I hope you are kidding. We lucked out. Not only did we get the better QB, but we also got Edmonds and White. 

 

Put the pipe down

[#34fan]

Yah... You heard that mostly from the crowd that wanted to justify grabbing our ankles for Allen or Rosen.

 

OF COURSE there are some solid 1st-round QB prospects in this draft... But what's done is done... Right now, we need BPA O-line, and BPA D-line in that order.

 

Hopefully McBeandip doesn't ness this up.

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Glad we have Allen.

 

 

[BobbyC81]

12 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

I'm thinking three first round QB's in Haskins, Lock and Jones of Duke.  Murray is wildcard as his dynamic plsymaking but size limitations and possible baseball choice make him a "buyer beware" kind of guy you may not want to risk your first round pick.

 

Assume Flacco will fill one of the teams needs.  Thinking Dolphins have too many holes to risk a QB and may be looking at buildingbthe roster, eating a bad year and looking for a QB in 2020.

 

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

Giants and Jags ahead of Bills in the draft order, my thought is Jags move ahead of Giants, trade with Bucs to go from 7 to 5.  Giants grab BPA and see if a QB like Murray falls to them in 2nd round.  Broncos and Redskins left, thinking Flacco goes to skins and Broncos can stay where they are and get 2nd QB of their choice as I think Haskins is going to Jags.

 

Hence, no real trade down for Bills due to QB needs, our best bet is Falcons at 14 looking for big DT need.

 

Is Will Grier downgraded for being a Big 12 QB? He put up some good numbers.

[ganesh]

15 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

 

I will disagree with you there. Dont think either Flacco or Tannehill will be attractive to any of the teams as a first option.

These 4 might be objectively weaker than last year's big 4 - but that is not the point of my post. I only mean weaker in terms of draft position relative to last year. All I am saying is that teams might find them good enough to trade into the top 10 or 12 to get them.

Jaguars is a team built to win now.  They will definitely look at the Veteran QB market before jumping to the draft.

[ChattanoogaBills]

Clayton Thornson will be a first round qb this year imo. He started slow this year but finished strong.

[Real McClappy]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I disagree. I still think it is a weak QB draft. Though Murray declaring does make things interesting. 

2017 was a "weak" draft class as well.

 

3 QB's will go in the first, trade down opportunities should rise just like KC and the Texans trading up for Mahomes and Watson.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Real McCoy said:

2017 was a "weak" draft class as well.

 

3 QB's will go in the first, trade down opportunities should rise just like KC and the Texans trading up for Mahomes and Watson.

 

Except I never believed it was. Indeed I was the person saying "these Quarterbacks are good, they are going high and the league likes them." As far as I can see Haskins will go somewhere in the first (I am not convinced he is a genuine 1st round talent but I think he will go somewhere day 1 though I am still a little sceptical that he goes top 10). Kyler Murray could go in the top 10.... to me that depends entirely on how tall he measures at the Combine.

 

If any of the others go in the first round they are significant reaches. If any of them go top 10 the NFL has lost its collective mind.

Edited January 19, 2019 by GunnerBill

[LSHMEAB]

22 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Being one spot in front of Denver may be an advantage.  If some team really likes a kid they may try to leapfrog the Broncos.  I don't think we trade with the Fins being in our division, but you never know.  Some teams with aging quarterbacks may make a suprise move and look to move up to draft their QB for the future such as the Redskins, Chargers, and Saints.  Kind of like when the Chiefs moved up for Mahomes.  Just brought that up in case anybody forgot that we could've had Mahomes.

Rumor is that Elway is high on Lock so you can pretty much just assume he'll bust.

[djp14150]

23 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

I'm thinking three first round QB's in Haskins, Lock and Jones of Duke.  Murray is wildcard as his dynamic plsymaking but size limitations and possible baseball choice make him a "buyer beware" kind of guy you may not want to risk your first round pick.

 

Assume Flacco will fill one of the teams needs.  Thinking Dolphins have too many holes to risk a QB and may be looking at buildingbthe roster, eating a bad year and looking for a QB in 2020.

 

Leaving QB needy teams to Broncos, Giants, Jaguars and Redskins.  Flacco taking one spot, Tannehill possibly another.

 

Giants and Jags ahead of Bills in the draft order, my thought is Jags move ahead of Giants, trade with Bucs to go from 7 to 5.  Giants grab BPA and see if a QB like Murray falls to them in 2nd round.  Broncos and Redskins left, thinking Flacco goes to skins and Broncos can stay where they are and get 2nd QB of their choice as I think Haskins is going to Jags.

 

Hence, no real trade down for Bills due to QB needs, our best bet is Falcons at 14 looking for big DT need.

 

 

I yhink a trade down with washington happens.

[Doc Brown]

27 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Rumor is that Elway is high on Lock so you can pretty much just assume he'll bust.

It's possible, but they didn't draft a QB last year because he wasn't sold on any of them.  I think they just give Keenum the reigns for another year and secretly hope for a horrible season.  The 2020 class seems to be a stronger class on paper at this point with Tua, Fromm, and Herbert probably being top 10 draft picks at this point. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

It's possible, but they didn't draft a QB last year because he wasn't sold on any of them.  I think they just give Keenum the reigns for another year and secretly hope for a horrible season.  The 2020 class seems to be a stronger class on paper at this point with Tua, Fromm, and Herbert probably being top 10 draft picks at this point. 

Could be. The rumors about Lock seem to have some merit, but we'll see. Lot's of smokescreens this time of year. It would be great if a couple of these QB's fly up the board.

[dakrider]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

It's possible, but they didn't draft a QB last year because he wasn't sold on any of them.  I think they just give Keenum the reigns for another year and secretly hope for a horrible season.  The 2020 class seems to be a stronger class on paper at this point with Tua, Fromm, and Herbert probably being top 10 draft picks at this point. 

Elway didn't draft a QB last year because he thought the Broncos were better than they were and would make the playoffs.  He couldn't afford to get a QB to develop and couldn't risk another Paxton Lynch either.  But make no mistake, Elway would have loved to have gotten Allen or Rosen.