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ESPN 2018 NFL Preview - Bills Ranked 32nd with Super Bowl Chance of 0.1%


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6 minutes ago, teef said:

i don't take it seriously at all.  i come on here to talk about the bills and kid around.  you came up with a specific name and avatar so people would notice you.  it seems like you take internet forums a bit too seriously.  again, i don't need a computer to get attention.  you seem like you need to be "creative" for anyone to actually take notice of you.  it's sad.

it's not.  he's trying to deflect so he doesn't have to face how sad his existence is.  if you realized that you weren't interesting, you might try the same thing as allenwillbust.

If you recognize he's doing it for attention then why do you keep giving it to him.

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2 minutes ago, AllenWillBust said:

 

OMG, you have it backwards...  

says the guy who is desperate for attention.

Just now, Warcodered said:

If you recognize he's doing it for attention then why do you keep giving it to him.

he needs it and i have a weak schedule today. it kinda worked out perfectly for us.

 

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12 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Based on what.

 

A QB who's only half of football tossed 5 INTS?

Well, certainly not one half of football last year, no.  That is seemingly the basis for virtually all the doom and gloom and snark from the national media folks. If your question is serious, here is my view.

 

1. Peterman's performance in camp and preseason indicates significant growth in his understanding and awareness.  Do I think he is a "savior"?  Of course not.  I think he is adequate to hold down the fort until Allen is ready.  He will throw more interceptions than Taylor in all likelihood, but he will also throw more completions and probably more touchdowns.  When people discuss Taylor's lack of turnovers, they never mention his incredible rate of 3 and outs.  I think Peterman will be better, on balance, than Taylor.  He will at least be willing to throw the ball.

2. Dennison is gone and I believe we will have a much more diverse and adaptable scheme this year, which will help to grind out first downs and avoid continual 3 and out drives.  The scheme will help Peterman to manage the offense.

3. The common belief is we have the "worst group of WRs in the game".  I call BS on that.  In reality, a healthy Benjamin, Jones, and Kerley are actually better that what they started with last year.  Is that great, no its not.  They have weapons at tight end and in the backfield to compliment and this seems adequate to me, and better than we were last year at this time.

4. The OL is problematic certainly.  Ugly performance in preseason.  However, we know from past experience that Groy can play, so can Dawkins, and Mills is serviceable.  Ducasse is a weak point, but his play improved over the course of last year and he is playing a new position.  Miller need to perform, Ducasse needs to get it sooner than later, and the line needs to gell.  I expect them to struggle early in protection but get better as the year progresses.  Losing Richie hurts.

5. I have also heard people say the Bills have the worst DL in the NFL.  Again, I call BS.  We have not seen the entire starting unit together this preseason, so questions remain, but this is improved from last year not worse.  Is it good enough when scheming for opponents, we will see.

6. Edmunds is not the player yet he will be by mid year or year end, but he has shown improvement with game action.  Major upgrade over Preston Brown.  Milano's struggles in the preseason have been disconcerting but he was very good last year and seemed to respond well to McD taking him off the starting unit for a couple of weeks.  Depth here could be better but is at least as good as last year and I believe a little better.

7. CB 2 along with nickel CB are concerns.  One area (in addition to OL)  that I think they may have taken a step back.

 

All in all, I expect a bit of a rough start.  If they can go 2 and 2 or even 1 and 3 to start while some of this comes together a bit, I think they are good enough for 7 to 9 wins.  A 2 and 5 start is a distinct possibility. 6 wins is the absolute floor in my mind and 10 the absolute best (if they get off to a better start than expected) , but more likely somewhere in the middle.

 

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31 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Did you go to school on Bangkok?

 

30 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

No.  Gugny.

Gugny is a village in the administrative district of Gmina Trzcianne, within Mońki County, Podlaskie Voivodeship, in north-eastern Poland.

 

but I thought you were 100% American 

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10 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

If we avoid major injuries the Bills will win 9-10 games this year. Gotta have faith and Billieve!

 

Peterman will prove half the haters wrong and our O-line will magically look good with him under center.

 

hater:  definition, someone who is hoping that the 5-INT man doesn't fall on his face again and ruin the 2018 season before half-time of Week 1.

 

 

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I'm (not) sorry but as a Bills fan I love this. Always the under dog and always looked over. "Analysts" continually pick against the Bills and rightfully so with this roster. There's nothing greater than proving the national media wrong and showing that even with all the stats these analysts can't figure out the Bills. Before we get all pessimistic let's wait and see a full actual game that counts. 

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9 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

If we avoid major injuries the Bills will win 9-10 games this year. Gotta have faith and Billieve!

 

Peterman will prove half the haters wrong and our O-line will magically look good with him under center.

 

I'm on board. LET'S GO BABY

 

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3 hours ago, thurst44 said:

True. Lazy journalisming annoys me though, and the fact that it happens almost every year and yet they keep on doing it is tiresome. They're ESPN for crying out loud -- they're supposed to be the gold standard (key word: supposed).

It's not "lazy journalism."

 

All these people can do is analyze past metrics and make speculations about the future, which is very hard to do.

 

Further, there is always a lot of ups and downs in the league from 1 year to the next.

 

After 3 or 4 weeks, we'll know who the good teams are, who the bad teams are, who's greatly improved, who's a lot worse, etc.

 

And then it will be much easier to make rankings for 2018.

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

It's not "lazy journalism."

 

All these people can do is analyze past metrics and make speculations about the future, which is very hard to do.

 

Further, there is always a lot of ups and downs in the league from 1 year to the next.

 

After 3 or 4 weeks, we'll know who the good teams are, who the bad teams are, who's greatly improved, who's a lot worse, etc.

 

And then it will be much easier to make rankings for 2018.

 

 

This was an ESPN ranking, not 538. Not all of sports reporting is based on metrics, and I doubt these rankings are. Based on past metrics, I don't think we would come out 32 for defense. These are mostly written for provocation and in any case I walked right into it. We'll see how the season goes.

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On paper it's easy to see how someone would say this.  Also, given that we have young players that are learning it is quite clear that big plays are going to happen against the defense.  For instance, suppose Edmunds takes off and plays well.  You have to hope Milano does too.  To me, in his second year, he's been more hesitant and lost at times than Edmunds.

 

Then there are issues at CB opposite White that might limit what Frasier can do schematically.

 

Offensively, it's all about the line and I think this is one of the worse one in the league.  You are not going very far with terrible offensive line play I don't care who you are.

Edited by NewEraBills
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Bills:  Projected wins:  6.3 (Ranked 32)

Jets:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 31)

Browns:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 30)

 

So the Bills have more projected wins but they aren't better than the Jets despite playing more or less the same schedule?  What?

 

I mean, I don't think we are going to be good... but ranked 32nd overall is kind of surprising.

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12 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said:

I get the offense, but the D ranking is silly

The Bills Defesne last year was:

 

26th in YGP

20th in yards per play

30th in 1st down per game

18th in 3rd down %

18th in Pts per game.

 

The defense may be worse without getting as many turnovers as they did last year

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2 questions:

 

1. Does anyone think that ESPN has ever once ranked an NHL, NBA, MLB, or NFL team that made the playoffs the previous year as last overall when making predictions the following year?  The only one I can think of as a possibility is the Florida Marlins a while back when they had an all out purge.  We lost Preston Brown, Eric Wood and Tyrod Taylor.  This is just ridiculous and based on nothing.

 

2.  If last year's roster played for another franchise, let's call it the Titans for argument's sake, had identical 2017 results and made identical offseason moves to us, would they get moved to 32 by ESPN?  That is highly doubtful to me.  Their rankings are uniform dependent.  It's the Bills so 32.  Titans, move them to 22.  Steelers, they'd be ranked 8.  Jets?  14.  Cards? 26.  Pats?  Next 9 Super Bowls are in the bag.

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6 minutes ago, berg1029 said:

Bills:  Projected wins:  6.3 (Ranked 32)

Jets:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 31)

Browns:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 30)

 

So the Bills have more projected wins but they aren't better than the Jets despite playing more or less the same schedule?  What?

 

I mean, I don't think we are going to be good... but ranked 32nd overall is kind of surprising.

 

That's the part I don't get.  If you are the worse team in the league, you're not going to win 6 games.

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4 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

The Bills Defesne last year was:

 

26th in YGP

20th in yards per play

30th in 1st down per game

18th in 3rd down %

18th in Pts per game.

 

The defense may be worse without getting as many turnovers as they did last year

Losing Preston Brown for Edmunds has moved us down past roughly one third of the league aggregate?  

7 minutes ago, berg1029 said:

Bills:  Projected wins:  6.3 (Ranked 32)

Jets:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 31)

Browns:  Projected wins:  6 (Ranked 30)

 

So the Bills have more projected wins but they aren't better than the Jets despite playing more or less the same schedule?  What?

 

I mean, I don't think we are going to be good... but ranked 32nd overall is kind of surprising.

I find it interesting that they project the worst records to be 6-10.  Are the best 10-6?

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4 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

That's the part I don't get.  If you are the worse team in the league, you're not going to win 6 games.

 

I've taken it as just meaning that the parity in the league is better than usual.  Looking at the list of teams, it's hard to find the equivalent of the Browns from last year.  There are no clear cut losers this year

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16 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

That's the part I don't get.  If you are the worse team in the league, you're not going to win 6 games.

 

special teams are a hidden variable, Bills haven't bothered with ST for a long time now

 

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3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

special teams are a hidden variable, Bills haven't bothered with ST for a long time now

 

McD loves special teams. He kept at least three guys just for special teams that aren't kickers or holders, Holmes, Jones and Lacey, who weren't needed at their regular positions. 

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Somehow, a playoff team from last year, losing their QB who led a feeble passing game...is now worse than 0-16 Cleveland?   Maybe it's the O-line mess that has as much to do with that ranking as anything.  The QB is a big ?? but if they can limit turnovers it's not going to be a complete disaster.  I guess the pundits don't think Peterman or Allen can play at all.

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