"So You're Telling Me There's (Not) a Chance Bills Aren't Awful"- Rotoworld's Fantasy and Season Preview

[Midwest1981]

Evan Silva, a notorious critic of Josh Allen ("notorious critic" is kind), as well as practically every move the Bills made this offseason, is absolutely in the camp that Buffalo is a bonafide contender for the top overall pick in 2019.  His opinion isn't isolated, as evidenced by the MMQB article that has Buffalo going 2-14.  I personally DO expect a down year, given the shuffled offensive line, a WR/TE core that most Bills' fans admit can be improved upon, and a brutal schedule- particularly in the first-half (5 road games; 3 home games are against quality teams in the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots).  But this merciless analysis has to represent a worst-case scenario...

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down

 

Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes):

 

"The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. Allen’s howitzer arm and 86th-percentile athleticism give him upside in the same way Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, and Paxton Lynch's did. When Allen does play – and he is likely to see the field this year – he’ll have to overcome the NFL’s least-talented supporting cast. Nevertheless, the fact that Allen is likely to make ten-plus starts as a rookie puts him on two-quarterback-league radars.

Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games. Benjamin battled a series of knee injuries in Carolina and continued to in Buffalo, tearing his meniscus a month after the trade and requiring offseason surgery. Benjamin doesn’t get open, can’t create after the catch, has always been inefficient with his targets, and has bad knees. Not only has Josh Hermsmeyer’s Game Speed data shown Benjamin runs at a league-basement pace for his position, Next Gen Stats revealed Benjamin’s speed was below average for tight ends last year. Next Gen also ranked Benjamin dead last and second to last in yards of separation at target in each of the last two years. In what projects as a poor Bills passing game, Benjamin’s lone fantasy appeal is projected target volume. 

2018 Vegas Win Total

The Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces. A game-winning 49-yard touchdown by Bengals WR Tyler Boyd bounced the Ravens from the postseason in Week 17, while the Chargers were a far superior team. The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."

 

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Stank_Nasty]

Good lord. What did the bills ever do to this guy? 

[Aussie Joe]

Isn’t it better to be written off by these scrubs and have no pressure going into the season? 

 

Id rather the Bills be the “under the radar” team that might catch some of their opponents by surprise..

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Good lord. What did the bills ever do to this guy? 

One of Brandon's 'indiscretions'?

 

OK, troops.  Revisit this thread at season's end, and see how close the 'expert' was.  If wildly inaccurate, then Evan's handlers/bosses deserve public ridicule.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I felt dirty after reading this. More pessimistic than even some of the posters on here...

[The Red King]

Click-bait idiocy.  This year's "The Bills season is over before it started."

 

Seriously, did a Buffalo Bill pee in this guy's cereal or something at some point?  ?

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I felt dirty after reading this. More pessimistic than even some of the posters on here...

The first time I saw the playoff remarks in quotes I knew he’d fit right in around here with a certain handful. 

[Buddo]

This is someone who is purely stats driven. So it's no great surprise he would go down that pessimistic route, as there aren't enough 'stats' on many of the Bills to base much of anything on.

The thing I did find rather ironic, is that he's blasting Benjamin for being slow, yet ignoring the obvious 'injured' reasons for that being the case. As I said, purely 'stats' driven.

 

Seems to me that it's a fundamental problem with NFL commentary these days, in that so much of it is driven by fantasy football stuff, which in fairness to Silva, is what I believe the article has its foundations in.

 

Tbh, unless it's someone on the D, there likely aren't going to be many FF stars for the Bills, outside of Shady, at least that can be identified right now.

[CommonCents]

It’s slow season for anyone covering sports and the NFL in particular. Go look at the article in the Detroit Free Press, a writer went on a rant about how Patricia is in danger of losing his players already. Apparently the writer doesn’t like that MP makes his players run, even worse they run in front of the media members, he is worried what goes on when they aren’t there! 

 

 

[FappyTheClown]

[MrEpsYtown]

Not sure things are much different last year. This team is going to win some games because of a very good defense that creates turnovers at a ridiculous rate. The weakest link on that defense, just so happened to be the heart of the defense, and that was Preston Brown. He was replaced by a athletic freak of a player in Edmunds. Even with growing pains, Edmunds will be better from day 1 simply based on athleticism and size. Plus the addition of a real 1 technique in Star should make a big difference. We also lacked sacks, and while I don't think Trent Murphy is some elite sack guy, what it does it makes the defensive line rotation much better, which should keep guys fresh and allow them to get after the quarterback. Instead of the rotation being Yarborough and some guy named Nordy...its going to be Murphy to Lawson. 

 

The offense is a different story. It sucked last year, and will likely suck this year...at least to start. Daboll is the huge difference here as I think he can get McCarron or Peterman or Allen to get the ball out quick to receivers. (I really hope Allen sits the first 8 games) The offensive line is not good, but I do think Wood and Incognito were very overrated...Wood more than Richie...but Richie looked awful at times last year. To me, Wood has been bad for a few years now and he was never great.  

 

My point...if you don't feel like reading all of that, is that we made the playoffs because of an opportunistic defense that is now better. Our offense was bad and will likely still be bad, but I think our offensive coordinator and the new system will make a difference.  This team could go 4-12 or could go 10-6. Not much different from last year...it will take a few lucky breaks and opportunistic times to make this work. 

[BillsFan17]

Silva is clown shoes and he goes out of his way now to try and ish all over the Bills. Why? Because he gives garbage take and our fan base really doesnt tolerate it, so we fire back and now mr. Sensitive tries nonstop to rip on the Bills.

 

I tweeted at him that it's not that Bills care that you think they are the worst, it's more or less him having the worst takes about the Bills.

[TPS]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Not sure things are much different last year. This team is going to win some games because of a very good defense that creates turnovers at a ridiculous rate. The weakest link on that defense, just so happened to be the heart of the defense, and that was Preston Brown. He was replaced by a athletic freak of a player in Edmunds. Even with growing pains, Edmunds will be better from day 1 simply based on athleticism and size. Plus the addition of a real 1 technique in Star should make a big difference. We also lacked sacks, and while I don't think Trent Murphy is some elite sack guy, what it does it makes the defensive line rotation much better, which should keep guys fresh and allow them to get after the quarterback. Instead of the rotation being Yarborough and some guy named Nordy...its going to be Murphy to Lawson. 

 

The offense is a different story. It sucked last year, and will likely suck this year...at least to start. Daboll is the huge difference here as I think he can get McCarron or Peterman or Allen to get the ball out quick to receivers. (I really hope Allen sits the first 8 games) The offensive line is not good, but I do think Wood and Incognito were very overrated...Wood more than Richie...but Richie looked awful at times last year. To me, Wood has been bad for a few years now and he was never great.  

 

My point...if you don't feel like reading all of that, is that we made the playoffs because of an opportunistic defense that is now better. Our offense was bad and will likely still be bad, but I think our offensive coordinator and the new system will make a difference.  This team could go 4-12 or could go 10-6. Not much different from last year...it will take a few lucky breaks and opportunistic times to make this work. 

The weakest link last year Was the run D after they traded Dareus. 

[baskingridgebillsfan]

i am not going the narrative that the bills will be one of the worst teams in the league.   The defense should be better than last year.  As weak as the wide receivers looks they will could have a healthy Benjamin for the season.  The qb play will be better.  Sure it maybe a transition year but to say the team won't be in the 6-10 range is kind of lazy 

[hondo in seattle]

Just another guy with a poor opinion of the Bills and I don't care.

There are certainly spots on the roster to worry about.  But there are some strengths on the roster that barely got mentioned by Silva.

 

The D looks improved.  The O has a lot of questions with a new OC, QB, and OL.  We'll see.

 

 

[plenzmd1]

I think it is a good article...just cause it does not slurp the Bills does not mean it wrong. I am terrified of Josh Allen, rooting like hell for him, but i don't think he gets it done. Silva is a analytics/stats guy..and the numbers do stare the Bills were fortunate last year and bound for a regression..much like the Raiders numbers did the year before last. Now, there is a legitimate argument that numbers/stats do not tell the whole story..and especially in such a short season that the NFL is..but I tend to trust them.

 

I hope I am wrong..especially the first month as it appears I will be at 4 of the first 5 games...but think it will be a long year for the fellas.

[4_kidd_4]

Rabble rabble!

[aristocrat]

big question mark at the most important position. if we get qb play equivalent to Kizer or Trubisky we will be top pick contenders. But if we can get average or better we will be wild card contenders.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

13 minutes ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

Rabble rabble!

Thanks.  Now I've got the Hamburglar stuck in my head.  At least he doesn't have an accompanying tune.

[BuffaloBill]

The issue is that the Bills have been at best a middling team for nearly two decades.  You can throw on top of that that the QB position is in heavy transition with three completely unproven players, an o-line that is now in the midst of a major shuffle and a coach that still has not proven himself over time.  The mix of these factors would weigh heavily on the side of a poor season for the Bills when viewed from the outside.

 

The Bills best hope is that they have a very solid D and they get at least average production out of the offense.  If so we are probably looking at another 8-8 type season.  Anything better than this will largely rest on getting one or two breaks and getting better than average production out of the QB position.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down

 

Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes):

 

"The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. (...)

Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games.

2018 Vegas Win Total
(...) The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."

 

"But other than THAT, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

[dma0034]

My biggest problem is making the playoffs and they are worse than the Jets and Dolphins? Dolphins are garbage.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I felt dirty after reading this. More pessimistic than even some of the posters on here...

 

Agreed, after I read that I needed a "good tidy"

[H2o]

"The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East"............  ............ 

 

The Dolphins don't have more talent than us, nor do the Jets. If I was a betting man I would take the over because I believe we get at least 7 wins this year. 

[elroy16]

The analytic guys LOVE Tyrod and his low int numbers. silva trashed McDermott after he benched Tyrod and said Sean was putting himself above the team. 

 

It's fine to side with analytics, but silva takes the Buffalo pessimism to a weird level. He recently called them the worst run organization in football. Had he said from 2000-2016, it would be hard to argue to hard against him. Now they have owners willing to spend whatever they need, a front office that has people going up for GM jobs elsewhere and are highly regarded, and what looks like a promising young coach. I don't see it.

Edited June 11, 2018 by elroy16

[Epstein's Mother]

2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

The Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces.

 

I'm tired of reading these stats.  The Bills lost to the Saints and Chargers back to back by 67 points (+ 10 in the other 14 games). Haven't we all heard that good teams find a way to win close games and bad teams find a way to lose them?

[Enemarty]

1 hour ago, Buddo said:

This is someone who is purely stats driven. So it's no great surprise he would go down that pessimistic route, as there aren't enough 'stats' on many of the Bills to base much of anything on.

The thing I did find rather ironic, is that he's blasting Benjamin for being slow, yet ignoring the obvious 'injured' reasons for that being the case. As I said, purely 'stats' driven.

 

Seems to me that it's a fundamental problem with NFL commentary these days, in that so much of it is driven by fantasy football stuff, which in fairness to Silva, is what I believe the article has its foundations in.

 

Tbh, unless it's someone on the D, there likely aren't going to be many FF stars for the Bills, outside of Shady, at least that can be identified right now.

Bingo.  He's right, we're awful in the fantasy department, other than perhaps the team defense stat.  Which is why his rant is so off the mark.  He ignores the likely strength of the team, as it doesn't fit his fantasy perspective.  I also agree with others that our O-line may not have taken as much of a hit as portrayed.  I don't see playoffs this year, more like the 6-8 win range.  But it will be fun to watch the team grow. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, The Red King said:

Click-bait idiocy.  This year's "The Bills season is over before it started."

Seriously, did a Buffalo Bill pee in this guy's cereal or something at some point?  ?

 

I think he drafted Sammy Watkins in his fantasy league or something.

Or perhaps it was Dareus just before the substances suspension.

 

Fantasy geek has Bills players underperform,  has Bills players "P*ss in his Wheaties" - all same thing

 

Mind you, the Bills might be awful - a lot of unknowns, and a lot depending on our coaches. 

If Daboll is who he was in his last NFL OC stint, it won't be pretty.  If he's learned something, could be good.

[Midwest1981]

I'm not going to argue that the Playoffs this year is a stretch- and I can certainly see how an outsider wouldn't be bullish on them either, considering the questions at major positions on the roster that we have, such as QB, WR, and two or three positions along the offensive line.  But some of these comments are just uncalled for and gratuitous, like the shots at Josh Allen and his "upside" rivaling that of JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, etc.  Or his 2017 finish in the Mountain West Conference award honors, neglecting to mention (FWIW) that he was 2nd-team the year before.

 

I do think that 2018 will be a season mostly of struggle- while the Bills will be growing together as an offense they probably empirically do and will have the toughest first-half slate out of any team in the NFL, even allowing for the fluidity of NFL schedules (at Ravens; CHARGERS; at Vikings; at Packers; TITANS; at Texans; at Colts; PATRIOTS).  My guess is we only win 1-3 of those but that the second half is another story and that's when Allen's introduction to the NFL begins.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Midwest1981

[yungmack]

Whether or not he dislikes the Bills, seems to me his assessment of Allen and Benjamin is based on facts. While I hope Allen turns into a star, he is most definitely a very long shot based on his entire career to date.

[Jay_Fixit]

Has anyone ever been able to trust a guy named Evan?

[The Red King]

Oh, to be clear, while I still predict 9-7, I openly admit there can be regression and do not attack/insult people who suggest there might be (people who say there will is another story...I hate opinion states as fact).  I fully respect people that put them around six wins even if I don't agree with them.  Two wins, while technically possible, is just silly (and if they win two or less games I'll openly admit I was wrong).  Buffalo plays Miami and the Jets twice, and those two game alone are normally worth 2-3 wins.  So, the argument is either Buffalo will win two against those two teams, and fail to beat any other team...or Buffalo won't even win two of four against those two.  Now, I realize the Jets drafting a rookie QB automatically makes them a much-improved, better then Buffalo team by default (wait, did I forget /sarcasm tag?), but still...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I didn’t see it as all that negative. Just taking a position on where the bills will be this season, from a fantasy perspective and Vegas over/under. 

 

Are there any avid and good fanstasy players on here that think any bills are fantasy locks?

 

Maybe the defense is worth a pick up, I wouldn’t look at any anyone other than McCoy (if he’s around late) with a the ‘?’s right now. 

 

 

[transient]

Wow.  It takes serious work to be that negative.  Kudos on the effort, if nothing else.

 

I think it may be Chris Ivory he's mad at, "McCoy’s backups are uninspiring to be kind in inefficient 30-year-old washed-up grinder Chris Ivory...", though I think in a roundabout way he also just called Travaris a space cadet, "and journeyman space back Travaris Cadet."

[Don Beebe]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

Click-bait idiocy.  This year's "The Bills season is over before it started."

 

Seriously, did a Buffalo Bill pee in this guy's cereal or something at some point?  ?

I haven't yet but I will If I get a chance. I am not a Bill just a fan, but I would be happy to help.

[JinxedBill1]

Honestly, I don't see a high win total myself.  This take though shows some bias.  Who cares?

 

When will Bills fans stop worrying about what other people think?  This happens year in and year out and most still acting surprised. 

 

How many times do you need to not get invited to the dance to be surprised when your not invited again to the dance?

[billspro]

He forgot the part where the Bills have a top ten defence.

[billsredneck1]

i for one am expecting a great season. our run d and sack totals will be very much improved. vontae davis will be just as good as gaines last year. our rookies...edmunds, johnson and neal will have an immediate impact....not to mention....well i just think they crushed this draft from top to bottom.

 

our playcalling and passing attack will improve 100% and even though the schedule looks rough to start, we will be in a great position to go on a second half winning streak.

i fully expect to command a wild card spot. my biggest hope...or worry is the first 2 games against conference perennial playoff teams. however, nobody can game plan for daboll, a.j. and our defense so maybe we can come out of the gate and go at least 2-2 out of the first 4.

 

if we can do that, we may only drop 2 more to the pats...plus maybe a let down somewhere but that puts us at 11-5. i am saying we will be no less than 10-6.

i hope a.j. has great success and i want nate to back him up. if we get a playoff season from a.j. that will only pay great dividends.

 

my bottom line prediction is that we will be able to rest a.j. and play allen the last game as we will have a playoff spot locked up.

[FearLess Price]

Our team is statistically terrible. This only proves stats can only take you so far. This is a fantasy football media person so hes only looking at stats. Hard to make a prediction based on only one piece of data.

 

2 wins? Hell no, well at least get to 4 and might get to 10 wins if daboll and AJM surprise peeps.

 

 

[Buftex]

I hope the kid works out. The way his critics bash him, you would think he was a total off the field jerk or something. 

 

I was listening to a Fantasy Football podcast, and Adam Rank (from NFL Network) was really criticizing Allen too.  It seemed kind of over the top.  He said "Josh Allen is the second coming of Donovan McNabb".  He meant it as an insult.  I was thought to myself, if he is the second coming of Donovan McNabb, than he won't be the bust that so many of these jagoffs are predicting.