Lets Check Back To Reality On The Bills Defense

[corta765]

OK so I am not here to say the Bills defense will suck or be a bad unit. In fact I think they could Top 10ish in the league and looking back on the season see a formidable unit with its best days to come. With that said I have seen a lottt of posters assuming all ready this defense is going to be great with some going as far as Top 5. I love the enthusiasm but we need to take the reality pill a little also.

Consider:

-The Bills have not one but two rookie LB's they basically are playing full time. Milano may not be a rookie and got some seasoning but he himself will still need time to adjust to his role. Assuming Edmunds week 1 will just step in without any mistakes and be lights out is a dangerous bet. I think he could win DROY but the kid will need some games to establish himself and learn the flow. I think Edmunds will rock long term and by mid season be showing his potential but slow down on his immediate impact also.

-The front 7 is injecting potentially three new starters (Edmunds, Murphy, Star) who also will need time as a unit to grow as a group. Could they start the season on a tear? Sure, they also could need a few weeks to adjust and have issues as they find their way.  In no way will this unit struggle against the run like last year I think they will hold their own pretty well, but ascending from bottom 30 to Top 5 is a heck of a leap for a line.

-The secondary while it should be good and could be great is relying on two starters (Vontae Davis & Philip Gaines) who have injury histories. I think Davis history is overstated still exists, but Gaines absolutely has issues. If everyone is healthy that is a major difference in coverage compared to what it looks like if either is out. 

-The Bills defense can still be better but the first half of the schedule especially faces some teams where holding them to 24 pts or less should be seen as a victory. The Chargers, Pats, Packers, Vikings, & Texans (potentially) all offer explosive offenses where just the defense keeping it within a score would be success. Additionally all of these teams have good to great offensive lines, plus a team like Baltimore is returning a guy like Marshall Yanda to the lineup. Remember Seattle's defense started building back in 2011, it wasn't until 2013 which they had their coming out party a full 2 years later.

-The Bills offense will probably have issues moving the ball so the defense will have to be on the field a lot and at points in rough field placement. They managed decently with this last year, but even so it still takes a toll on the defense after a while.

 

Like I said I think this Bills defense actually will be pretty decent and I could see them absolutely near the Top 10. The 2013 defense for Buffalo isn't as highly regarded as 2014 but it finished 10th in ypg after being 22nd the year earlier. Our defense finished 26th last year so jumping in the Top 10 range would be a giant improvement alone. It's rare that teams leap rather then take a step first. A modest improvement this season that sees our defense mold into the unit it wants to be by the end of the season would be great in my eyes.

[formerlyofCtown]

I think the key will be injuries.  If we don't catch the bug this will be a dominant D by week 5.

[Chandler#81]

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

[Jay_Fixit]

 

10 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

You think Star Lotulelei is a poor mans Adolphus Washington and Trent Murphy, who’s played 47 career games is washed up?

 

I can’t wait to read more of you.

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Jay_Fixit

[corta765]

11 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

I think you have some valid points with the d-line. Unless Hughes turns back up or Shaq finds his thing they aren't elite. I do think they can be productive which this coaching staff is good with. LB corp potentially could be dominant in another year or two, this year will take some time but the talent is there at 2 of the 3 spots. Overall if they are even just in the middle defense wise in ypg its good with me.

[oldmanfan]

And if the queen had you know what.....

 

If, if, if.  Long offseason.

[mjd1001]

I have some doubts about this D also...mostly centered on the pass rush.  I do not see it as consistent...or even league average.  They have to show they can put some pressure on the passer.

[FrankoElTanko]

^ agree (w Jay_FixIt)... Washed up at 27 and healthy currently? Poor Man's Adolphus (who has literally HALF of the production as Star, although Star is a NT)? "whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws" I am curious, what (multidimensional) DT were we supposed to acquire to change that and when were we? and did we not try to do exactly as best we could in the 3rd round with H. Phillips, who had over 100tackles from the nose last year? 

 

Are you trolling?

 

 

[Bob in STL]

I think they improved the defensive talent and depth from where they ended last season ... much more so than the offense has. 

 

With Leslie Frazier running the defense I think it is a safe bet they improve from last year.  

[Shaw66]

The year Kuechly arrived, Carolina's defense moved up ten to 15 spots in points defense and yards defense.

 

Yes, a lot of things have to happen, but the Bills have a rookie middle linebacker with a ton of talent, a great pair of corners in Davis and White, a veteran and talented defensive line.   Yes, a lot of things have to come together, but setting a goal of top 5 isn't unreasonable.   It could happen.  

[aristocrat]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

 

Whomp whomp. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

Murphy is washed up going into his 4th season and coming off of his best season, while getting better each year he has played?

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

OK so I am not here to say the Bills defense will suck or be a bad unit. In fact I think they could Top 10ish in the league and looking back on the season see a formidable unit with its best days to come. With that said I have seen a lottt of posters assuming all ready this defense is going to be great with some going as far as Top 5. I love the enthusiasm but we need to take the reality pill a little also.

Consider:

-The Bills have not one but two rookie LB's they basically are playing full time. Milano may not be a rookie and got some seasoning but he himself will still need time to adjust to his role. Assuming Edmunds week 1 will just step in without any mistakes and be lights out is a dangerous bet. I think he could win DROY but the kid will need some games to establish himself and learn the flow. I think Edmunds will rock long term and by mid season be showing his potential but slow down on his immediate impact also.

-The front 7 is injecting potentially three new starters (Edmunds, Murphy, Star) who also will need time as a unit to grow as a group. Could they start the season on a tear? Sure, they also could need a few weeks to adjust and have issues as they find their way.  In no way will this unit struggle against the run like last year I think they will hold their own pretty well, but ascending from bottom 30 to Top 5 is a heck of a leap for a line.

-The secondary while it should be good and could be great is relying on two starters (Vontae Davis & Philip Gaines) who have injury histories. I think Davis history is overstated still exists, but Gaines absolutely has issues. If everyone is healthy that is a major difference in coverage compared to what it looks like if either is out. 

-The Bills defense can still be better but the first half of the schedule especially faces some teams where holding them to 24 pts or less should be seen as a victory. The Chargers, Pats, Packers, Vikings, & Texans (potentially) all offer explosive offenses where just the defense keeping it within a score would be success. Additionally all of these teams have good to great offensive lines, plus a team like Baltimore is returning a guy like Marshall Yanda to the lineup. Remember Seattle's defense started building back in 2011, it wasn't until 2013 which they had their coming out party a full 2 years later.

-The Bills offense will probably have issues moving the ball so the defense will have to be on the field a lot and at points in rough field placement. They managed decently with this last year, but even so it still takes a toll on the defense after a while.

 

Like I said I think this Bills defense actually will be pretty decent and I could see them absolutely near the Top 10. The 2013 defense for Buffalo isn't as highly regarded as 2014 but it finished 10th in ypg after being 22nd the year earlier. Our defense finished 26th last year so jumping in the Top 10 range would be a giant improvement alone. It's rare that teams leap rather then take a step first. A modest improvement this season that sees our defense mold into the unit it wants to be by the end of the season would be great in my eyes.

 

My tongue was partially in cheek when I said the D would be awesome. But I don't think it's impossible either.

[MJS]

There's not really a reality to check back to. All we have are guesses to this point.

 

Your guess is not better than everyone else's guess, by the way.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

And the award for “the most awful and ill-informed post of the day” goes to..... 

 

as for what the OP said. I don’t get what posters you are seeing. From what I’ve seen the majority of what people are saying is it could be a borderline top 10 unit. That’s realistic and it’s something you seem to agree with. I’m not seeing much about the D being over hyped around here honestly. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

How exactly does a 5 year player become a poor mans anything of a 2 year player?  This is one whack take.  

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, White Linen said:

 

How exactly does a 5 year player become a poor mans anything of a 2 year player?  This is one whack take.  

Especially when the young guy was as bad as he was last year. Really really REALLY bad take. 

[Heavy Kevi]

There are question marks on the line.

 

But objectively, the secondary is top 12 at a minimum.

 

I would say this year is set up to be a learning year for the young man at mike, but we won't be upset about the pick.

 

My guess is they will look incredible at times, and dominate a few games.... But get exposed and look like rookies out there just as often.

 

I just need to see consistency in the secondary, growth and flashes from the lb's, and not really much as far as the dline goes. McBeane did the secondary last year, linebacker this year, and I would expect a rebuild of the line next year post-Kyle.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Have people been saying our D would be lights out this year???

 

We all know Lorax and Kyle are slowing down but still steady. Shaw has been a bust thus far. Hughes hasn't been stellar for a couple years. Our other 2 LBs are inexperienced but talented. 

 

All those are big question marks.

 

Our secondary should be excellent.

 

All that said, McDermott is a defensive HC, so I suspect a lot of his time and effort goes to them and, once again, our D carries us into the postseason

[Dadonkadonk]

Great defenses rush the passer and create turnovers.

Good to Very good defenses give up yards and first downs but don't surrender big plays, keep the points against low, and are opportunistic on defense.

Bad defenses can't stop the run, generate little to no pass rush, and have coverage breakdowns.

 

This defense can be very good if the secondary stays healthy.  To become great they need Star and Kyle to push the pocket back.  In addition, they will need Hughes to be a bit more dominant and either a slimmed down Lawson or Murphy to generate pressure from the other side.

 

I would leave Hughes at DE most of the time but I would like to see some packages with Washington at DE and Hughes/Edmunds at LB in the nickel.  

 

I think Murphy has a better chance of being a complete bust than he does of being a double digit sack guy.  PED guy coming off major injury.  Just don't see why this board is so excited about him.  I'm more excited to see Lawson playing at a lower weight.  He has been fat and out of shape since the first game he played.  Playing closer to his college weight hopefully will allow him to get back some of his burst in the pass rush.  If not perhaps the best we can hope is he holds up well against the run as he did last year.  

[FearLess Price]

I actually think our defense has the potential to be one of the best young outfits in the league.

 

Theyre gonna meet bumps in the road, bad games, and everything.

 

They will also surprise and have great games.

 

These kids are talented tho, our secondary is kind of solid CB2 remains to be seen.

 

Were missing one pass rusher we can grab in next years draft and maybe another rotational DT but I like how this defense is being built

 

 

 

[Lfod]

The reality for me is the defense was entertaining when the offense was boring stalling out and living on the sideline.

 

I'm not living in any reality our defense won't be at least very good if not spectacular. They got the job done. Held the Jaguars to 10 points bro, that was reality to me. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Lfod

[4merper4mer]

13 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

And we will all get polio and Walmart will be fresh out of Iron Lungs.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

13 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

Jerry, there's already a thread about your buyout. Please keep your comments to that thread. Thanks.

 

-The Management

[nucci]

13 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I have some doubts about this D also...mostly centered on the pass rush.  I do not see it as consistent...or even league average.  They have to show they can put some pressure on the passer.

we haven't seen anything yet

[Soda Popinski]

I not only think the defense will be better I think it will have better depth than last year.   If you look at the guys McBeane brought in like Milano and Tre White, this talk about Gelling and adjusting to a new team means literally nothing.    White was a Bill the second we drafted him and I believe Star, Murphy, Edmunds will all fit in the exact same way.   As did Gaines when we traded for him.   Star is already familiar with our defense, and Murphy is a veteran who should need zero adjustment time, this is what OTAs are for.   

 

I expect this defense to be MUCH better, the guys collecting paychecks are gone.   

[SoCal Deek]

To me it all comes down to pass rush. My hope is that the coach has a plan to cover for the lack of one. But you never know, maybe we actually see something from Shaq this season. As a former first rounder it’s time for him to step up.

[colin]

15 hours ago, corta765 said:

OK so I am not here to say the Bills defense will suck or be a bad unit. In fact I think they could Top 10ish in the league and looking back on the season see a formidable unit with its best days to come. With that said I have seen a lottt of posters assuming all ready this defense is going to be great with some going as far as Top 5. I love the enthusiasm but we need to take the reality pill a little also.

 

 ***snip***

 

Top 5?

 

Top 5?!?!

 

I know I said we'd be Top 5, but we'll be top 2, and we're not 2, I thought you had one but it's not one, corta nah.

 

Hermes link, ice blue...

 

I'll see myself out.

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

To me it all comes down to pass rush. My hope is that the coach has a plan to cover for the lack of one. But you never know, maybe we actually see something from Shaq this season. As a former first rounder it’s time for him to step up.

i've never been a fan of dc's who are reluctant to blitz .....and frazier is one of those.  i have always contended that the way to beat the best like brady is blitz the crap out of them. so they beat you and complete here and there, but at least by beating them up you have a chance.

 

however, if they want to rely on the front 4 for pressure (which was the problem last year) i'm glad to see they're building a line capable of doing that. would still like to see more blitzing.

[aristocrat]

6 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i've never been a fan of dc's who are reluctant to blitz .....and frazier is one of those.  i have always contended that the way to beat the best like brady is blitz the crap out of them. so they beat you and complete here and there, but at least by beating them up you have a chance.

 

however, if they want to rely on the front 4 for pressure (which was the problem last year) i'm glad to see they're building a line capable of doing that. would still like to see more blitzing.

 

to beat brady the front four have to get to him with the secondary giving them time for coverage sacks.  he can just get that ball out so quick. if we can take away those short throws or at least keep them to short gains that's the ticket.  

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

to beat brady the front four have to get to him with the secondary giving them time for coverage sacks.  he can just get that ball out so quick. if we can take away those short throws or at least keep them to short gains that's the ticket.  

 

100% agree.  People think you have to beat Brady by blitzing. The stats simply do not back that up.  When you blitz him he finds the open guy and gets the ball out so quick he will beat you with a thousand cuts. The book on beating him is you have to get there with 4 and you need to stunt and twist and confuse him who is rushing from where if possible.  And ideally you need to get loose up the middle of the pocket.  Disrupt the middle. Your DBs need to play close to the line and they need to disrupt the receivers early in their routes and then you need refs who let you play a little bit in those short zones.  Do not get me wrong it is darn hard to do.... and you kind of need the right balance of players to do it effectively.  

[Chandler#81]

13 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

And the award for “the most awful and ill-informed post of the day” goes to..... 

 

as for what the OP said. I don’t get what posters you are seeing. From what I’ve seen the majority of what people are saying is it could be a borderline top 10 unit. That’s realistic and it’s something you seem to agree with. I’m not seeing much about the D being over hyped around here honestly. 

 

Murphy had 6 sacks through 2 seasons before being a convicted doper and just 2 PDef in 3 years. Then he blew out his ACL & MCL before the ‘Skins let him go. Maybe being a ‘Has Been’ is incorrect. Perhaps he’s a ‘Never Was’..

Lotulelie has averaged <2 tackles/game, <2.5 Sacks/yr & 1PDef/yr. I can’t believe Carolina would just let him go?. 

One teams’ nasty stank is another teams’ garbage.

 

Progressing to a Top 20 Defense is possible, given familiarity with the scheme. Top 5 to Top 10 is a pipe dream, in my ill- informed opinion.

[blacklabel]

Defense doesn't take as long to gel as an offense. How many starters are returning? Hughes, Williams, Lawson, Alexander, Milano, White, Poyer, Hyde... that's eight. Newcomers are Lotulelei, Murphy, Davis and Edmunds. Murphy and Hughes have both been in the top ten in terms of QB pressures the last few seasons. Last season, Bills lacked a presence in the middle that could eat up space/occupy multiple blockers to free up DEs and LBs. Lotulelei is exactly that, a space-eater that has no issue doing the dirty work in the trenches to free up teammates. Edmunds is in a good place having Alexander to work with him. Davis is a veteran who shouldn't have much trouble picking things up and winning the other starting CB slot. Hyde and Poyer should only get better after having a full year of playing together. Sure, LB can be seen as a question mark, as well as nickel CB but overall, I think they'll be alright. I especially think they'll be better up front with a better crop of players to rotate on the DL.

[aristocrat]

12 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Murphy had 6 sacks through 2 seasons before being a convicted doper and just 2 PDef in 3 years. Then he blew out his ACL & MCL before the ‘Skins let him go. Maybe being a ‘Has Been’ is incorrect. Perhaps he’s a ‘Never Was’..

Lotulelie has averaged <2 tackles/game, <2.5 Sacks/yr & 1PDef/yr. I can’t believe Carolina would just let him go?. 

One teams’ nasty stank is another teams’ garbage.

 

Progressing to a Top 20 Defense is possible, given familiarity with the scheme. Top 5 to Top 10 is a pipe dream, in my ill- informed opinion.

 

except the skins had him playing olb for the first two seasons and then switched him to def end where he flourished in 2016.  we are playing him at def end so the idea is he will continue the great play at def end.  Star was the nose tackle on that d line which allowed for the other guys to put up the stats you love to look at.  That's probably what he will be doing in our defense.  

[Stank_Nasty]

20 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Murphy had 6 sacks through 2 seasons before being a convicted doper and just 2 PDef in 3 years. Then he blew out his ACL & MCL before the ‘Skins let him go. Maybe being a ‘Has Been’ is incorrect. Perhaps he’s a ‘Never Was’..

Lotulelie has averaged <2 tackles/game, <2.5 Sacks/yr & 1PDef/yr. I can’t believe Carolina would just let him go?. 

One teams’ nasty stank is another teams’ garbage.

 

Progressing to a Top 20 Defense is possible, given familiarity with the scheme. Top 5 to Top 10 is a pipe dream, in my ill- informed opinion.

the fact that you are referencing stats for a space eater like star says all I need to know here. the guy was the centerpiece of that run d for years. 

 

space eaters like him aren't paid for raw numbers. they get paid when they do their job, penetrate and eat up space for everyone else. and he's been on of the best at that since he entered the league...…. casey Hampton was a renowned and elite space eater. he averaged a mere 31 tackles a season.

 

like i said. ill-informed.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

the fact that you are referencing stats for a space eater like star says all I need to know here. the guy was the centerpiece of that run d for years. 

 

space eaters like him aren't paid for raw numbers. they get paid when they do their job, penetrate and eat up space for everyone else. and he's been on of the best at that since he entered the league...…. casey Hampton was a renowned and elite space eater. he averaged a mere 31 tackles a season.

 

like i said. ill-informed.

Please explain why- if he’s so great- Carolina allowed to walk. 

PS He’s not

[LeGOATski]

Back to reality.

 

Oh! There goes gravity.

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, Chandler#81 said:

Please explain why- if he’s so great- Carolina allowed to walk. 

PS He’s not

becuz they had plenty of other pieces. they knew a team in need would overpay him a bit and he wasn't quite worth it to them.

 

I believe we overpayed for him but I also believe he's an obvious upgrade..... becuz he will be. hands down. saying he's a poor mans Washington is an incredibly bad take. Washington was absolutely awful last year.

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Please explain why- if he’s so great- Carolina allowed to walk. 

PS He’s not

Chandler I think it all depends on what they plan on using him for

 

He is a space eater....a guy that takes up 2 blockers at a time and lets guys like Edmunds and Milano scrape and make plays

 

Controlling the line of scrimmage is really valuable.   I did NOT want to be relying on Adolphus Washington for this who is frankly soft and gets pushed around up front.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Please explain why- if he’s so great- Carolina allowed to walk. 

PS He’s not

 

That’s your argument?  Seriously?