Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[BigDingus]

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. 

 

People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB.

 

Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from.

**********************************************************************

1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) -

"The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:
MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?
ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?
JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?
ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players"

"I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown.

 

There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

 

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

 

 

2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) -

 

(Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to

take him"

 

 

3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) -

(Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL."

 

 

4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) -

(Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive."

 

5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) -
 

"I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him"

6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) -

"The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season."

 

7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) -
 

(Pick Grade: F)  The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.

This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor.

 

8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) -

(Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support."

 

 

9. Nate Davis (USA Today) -

"Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge"

 

 

10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) -

(Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma.

He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback.

The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork.

The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get."

 

11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) -

"I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen"

 

12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up"

 

13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years"

 

14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) -
 

"Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems."

 

**********************************************************************

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

[beerme1]

F em all. Revisit this in two or three years.

[reddogblitz]

I voted on accuracy.  Accuracy is a pre requisite to be a QB. I question if it can even be "fixed".

[Aussie Joe]

Beane is either going to look like a genius or he is getting a lot of “ I told u so’s”...

 

There are a few things on your list that concern me...I can’t narrow it to one...

 

But, Beane is no dummy, and has been working on this decision for 12 months so let’s go with it and see how the decision looks pre draft 2020...

 

 

 

[Fadingpain]

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. 

 

People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB.

 

Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from.

**********************************************************************

1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) -

"The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:
MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?
ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?
JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?
ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players"

"I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown.

 

There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

 

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

 

 

2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) -

 

(Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to

take him"

 

 

3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) -

(Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL."

 

 

4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) -

(Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive."

 

5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) -
 

"I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him"

6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) -

"The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season."

 

7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) -
 

(Pick Grade: F)  The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.

This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor.

 

8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) -

(Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support."

 

 

9. Nate Davis (USA Today) -

"Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge"

 

 

10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) -

(Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma.

He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback.

The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork.

The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get."

 

11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) -

"I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen"

 

12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up"

 

13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years"

 

14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) -
 

"Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems."

 

**********************************************************************

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

That is one of the biggest list of nobodies I have ever seen.

I voted o-line.  I also am not sure if this coaching staff can develop a QB.  I believe his accuracy issues are exaggerated.  I also believe his mechanics are easily fixed. 

As to people bringing up his positives, I believe there's a lot more to like than to not like.

[ALF]

I just hope Beane and Jordan Palmer have it right. He will need a good OL and coaching to have a chance . 

[formerlyofCtown]

I hope that myself and the actual experts are correct about the kid.

Edited May 6, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Mickey]

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

57 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

That is one of the biggest list of nobodies I have ever seen.

I voted o-line.  I also am not sure if this coaching staff can develop a QB.  I believe his accuracy issues are exaggerated.  I also believe his mechanics are easily fixed. 

As to people bringing up his positives, I believe there's a lot more to like than to not like.

Was about to say the same.

 

That said I voted coaching. Dave Culley is the biggest question mark on the staff for me. 

[Doc Brown]

My biggest fear besides Allen quoting Modern Family on twitter is that his quality of play in college will transfer to the NFL.  

[Buddo]

Quite honestly, for all of the options have some validity, my biggest concern would be to start him too soon. Imho, he needs a lot of time bench warming, to see what goes on with NFL defenses, and to hone his footwork.

 

I'm concerned that he will look terrific in shorts, especially with the rocket arm he has, but not actually be a better QB now than McCarron, when proper games, and pads, go on.

 

For the moment, it's good that they have him as the 3rd QB on the depth chart, I just hope it stays that way for a fair part of the season at least.

 

The last QB we drafted in the 1st round, was also a guy who needed time to develop, and through roster mismanagement, and an element of bad luck, he never got it. At least this time around, we should have enough competency at the position ahead of Allen, for that not to have to be the case.

 

Another 'issue' I can foresee, is that as and when Allen is 'ready', he is going to have to have a different offense to run than either McCarron or Peterman. Mainly so as to account for using that rocket arm to the best advantage. One thing that does seem as though it's a positive in that respect however, is that Daboll does appear to be capable of doing that sort of thing, as evidenced by the switch of QBs and approach to their offence, that he showed in that game for 'Bama.

[CSBill]

I suppose none of this is a surprise to Beane and McDermott. I don't think they woke up after the draft, read the reviews, and went, "Damn, why didn't someone tell us this?" I am trusting their far more experienced perspective--more than even these "paid-to-write-critical-things" reporters--than our limited view.

 

Yes, there is a rick, Cleveland is getting hammered the same way in the national media for picking Mayfield. If Rosen was that good, why did he fall to 10? And Darnold's interception problem will only get accentuated in the NFL. All had their flaws, and all have their strengths. What was so unique about this draft was the options. If it had only been one of them, that one would have been the number one pick.

 

So, as it is, the people who are getting paid to do this in Buffalo have done pretty well over the past year. I'll go with their far more educated perspective than mine, or that of any hack trying to make a name for himself selling sports columns. 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by CSBill

[8-8 Forever?]

just be smart about it and don't put him on the field this year

[MrEpsYtown]

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[die hard bills fan]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

Perfect

[Kangaxx]

I'll give everyone on this forum a little tip as it seems most people in media/analytics like to grab onto a simple number that shows only a fraction of the whole picture. Completion Percentage ≠ QB Accuracy. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

Get rid of none of the above and replace it with all of the above. I hope I am very wrong tho.

[Trogdor]

25 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

[Wayne Arnold]

5 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I voted on accuracy.  Accuracy is a pre requisite to be a QB. I question if it can even be "fixed".

 

So inaccurate...

 

 

More inaccuracy...

 

 

The horror...

 

 

[starrymessenger]

I've never seen so polarizing a pick. From 30,000 feet it looks as though Allen gets support more from scouts and coaches and less, much less, from media pundits and fans. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and who is wrong. I think this FO and coaching staff have pushed all their chips on the Allen square and if he fails, especially if he fails badly, it will be a heavy indictment of their ability to evaluate players at the most important position on the field. And it may even be reasonable to generalize the result as a comment on whether traditional/conservative ways of thinking about the job requirements are old fashioned and outdated (or not).

Although (as a fan) he would not have been my choice, especially with Rosen on the board, Allen was to me always legit as a first round talent, albeit a risky pick. So boom or bust. 

Im not that concerned about his footwork and related mechanical issues. There is lots of good tape of him doing things the right way to say hat he is capable of overcoming these difficulties with good coaching and reps. The real question has to do with his ability to master the mental aspects required to play the position at a high level. So reading a defence pre-snap, audiblizing as required, reacting to post-snap coverage changes (disguised defensive sets), going through progressions, making the right decisions, overcoming his youthful over- reliance on his cannon arm, knowing when to throw it away rather than play hero-ball, when to take a sack etc...It certainly is a good sign that he's intelligent and has intellectual capacity. The playbook should not be a problem for him. But the required execution depends more on having that instinctive-intuitive ability to react quickly and accurately to the on field action as it develops than mental capacity as such. Having that would enable his outstanding physical gifts to fully translate. Not having "it" means he will fall short, possibly far short, of the lofty expectations the Bills evidently have for him.

I really don't know how this will turn out.

[Trogdor]

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

So inaccurate...

 

 

More inaccuracy...

 

 

The horror...

 

 

Watching actual plays is so unadvanced.  You have to get smarter and look at the more advanced analytics.  Don't ever watch.  Analytics guys are like the geniuses in The Matrix who can watch numbers flow on a screen and tell you exactly what is going on.  

 

Thank God they're not just in baseball anymore.  For years I thought Cal Ripken was a great player until the SABR metrics guys said he was meh.  I can't wait to find out if Deandre Hopkins is as bad as Ripken or if Anthony Fasano is as great as Scott Hatteberg.  

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

 

Where is this mystery quarterback that is great for a whole game?

[drf1835]

So, let me get this right? There are plenty of positive things said about Allen, including by real media experts, and so that is wrong or misleading, as we can only talk about the negative things over and over again, and as the negatives supposedly have been less said, from others here and from all those less known or unknown media people. We should just dig up or focus on flaws, skeletens and concerns about all the qb draft prospects, so lets be just pessimistic and worry, and not be happy we have a chance of having a great qb here.. All those qbs went in the top 10 because of something great, or great potential, despite their risks.

 

There are only so many college qbs that may succeed in the nfl, and when one is there with lots of talent or potential,, a qb needy team needs to roll the dice and go for it, especially when losing so much for so many years without a top 10 rated qb, despite any naysayers, as projected better stars can turn into busts, and projected riskier but talented players can turn into stars, eventually flying above those ofhers. Of course teams can minimize risks by analyzing stats, intangibles and behaviors, or hope good luck is involved, but sometimes it will be a smart team going  against the grain or consensus, and trusting their gut feeling after analying all the good and bad and whether that player fits their team the best.

 

Each of the other 4 qbs in the top 5, could fail because of their stated flaws too. Many thought Luck would be a huge star. He has not been, and has not matched lofty expectations, and has had bad injury and supporting cast luck. Many thought Goff and Wenz would fail. They have far exceeded that, and have exceled.. Stats in college can sometimes can be misleading. Smarter persons can sift through that, and not assume things, as other factors can be involved, like very poor olines, a system or qb that focuses on getting the ball mostly downfield, and poorer receivers, and sometimes the sample size of games played can be smaller. Some stars in college get worse in the nfl; some semistars excel, when supporting casts and systems use their talent  better, or when more learning, experience and effective teachings occur.

 

My opinion thus is: We cannot change what we have now, nor would I necessarily want the other flaws from those other qbs, who were abd are far from perfect, too. The gm, head coach, AND owners seem to all agree Josh Allen is their guy. I will support them, JA, and focus on his abilities, and hope his coaching and Joshs hard work and dedication to be the best and prove the naysayers wrong will make this all work out. Nobody has the answer now what will happen. I just know I am on board with the Bills decision, and will give Allen time to grow as a qb, and not panick by the end of the first year regardless of stats. I will focus on his improvement, as the team also hopefully builds the offense around him, as this is a team game, without tons of supermen in this league who can lead the entire offense on their back.

 

 

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

I just hope Beane and Jordan Palmer have it right. He will need a good OL and coaching to have a chance . 

 

They all do, pretty much.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I’m going with the Lack of Wide Receiver talent.  

 

The excuse was good enough for the last starter so not being hypocritical I will apply it to Allen as well.   

[hemma]

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

[jr1]

Culley

[Victory Formation]

OL and WR issues.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 minutes ago, hemma said:

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

That fits into the excuses for TT last season too.  

[PromoTheRobot]

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

[stinky finger]

24 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Where is this mystery tape of Allen looking great for a whole game? I've seen a lot of highlight videos, but for every good throw he has at least two poor throws. I've seen a lot that would've been interceptions or defended against better defenses. I really hope that he develops, but there seems to be a contingent on this board that think he is game day ready and polished. Do we really need to just ignore the red flags or shout people down to root for him? 

 

Game day ready? polished?

 

Says who?

[PromoTheRobot]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

That fits into the excuses for TT last season too.  

 

Pre-emptive bust calling?

Edited May 6, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[MrEpsYtown]

31 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

 

But people are using that stat and it is just a dumb stat. It says very little. If he throws 10-15, 5 yard bubble screens ala Mayfield, Rudolph, Darnold, then his completion percentage is over sixty. The guy was running a pro style offense that isn't one read and throw to a wide open guy. It involved running the ball and using play action. People are failing to see the whole picture. He's good enough to be a top ten pick in the opinion of pretty much the entire NFL, but he isn't good enough for a bunch of blog writers and message board guys on the internet? It's comical. I get that he has flaws, but using the completion percentage stat is just dumb. 

 

Outside of Rosen, his footwork is better than the rest of these guys. He has, by far, the strongest arm. He made full field reads. He is faster and more athletic than the guy who is 5 inches shorter and weights 30 pounds less. His upside is huge. People who can't see this are blinded by their own bias and the fact that they didn't get their guy and they are clinging to 56%. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

Fake News / Alternate Truths 

 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, APoxOnYou said:

I'll give everyone on this forum a little tip as it seems most people in media/analytics like to grab onto a simple number that shows only a fraction of the whole picture. Completion Percentage ≠ QB Accuracy. 

 

 

Allen does not have accuracy issues, it is a lazy evaluation where people just look at his completion percentage and assume he has accuracy issues. He does miss some routine throws, especially when his footwork gets sloppy. I don't think he misses them at an unusually high rate or anything. I voted for reading a defense because Allen has not shown he can do that on a consistent basis. 

 

Allen needs to work on four things to be great IMO:

 

1) Get into a rhythm early - he needs to focus on easy completions and first downs early in the game

2) Don't force the big play- too often Allen looks past the check down to try and force a downfield throw. 

3) Footwork and timing- if he trusts his footwork and throws with a little more anticipation the short throws will be completed more often

4) Know when to give up on a play- He is going to take too many sacks if he runs around as much as he did in college

 

 

57 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

 

I have seen that drop percentage stat being thrown around, but it is wrong. Allen's WRs had a very high drop percentage. They probably average around 4 drops per game, the Hawaii game was one of the worst, I counted 5 drops on 19 attempts. I don't think Allen's accuracy will be an issue at all, people are going to be surprised by that at training camp. 

[US Egg]

This draft will always be based on Allen, take him out of equation and the Bills 2018 draft looks solid. 

 

I see 3-4 of the non Allen draftees being day one regular participants beyond just on special teams.

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

Thanks for finally being clear on where you stand. Your previous 500 "Allen is the worst QB on the planet" posts were a little ambiguous.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

To the OP: Would you consider changing your poll to allow more than one choice?

 

 

58 minutes ago, billspro said:

Allen does not have accuracy issues, it is a lazy evaluation where people just look at his completion percentage and assume he has accuracy issues. He does miss some routine throws, especially when his footwork gets sloppy. I don't think he misses them at an unusually high rate or anything. I voted for reading a defense because Allen has not shown he can do that on a consistent basis.

 

billspro, you're correct that completion percentage is different than accuracy, and it would be lazy if people just look at his completion percentage and say "accuracy issues"

 

That said, people who watch a lot of film (like every game of every QB) and take careful notes assume nothing - they call what they see, and they do see accuracy issues at a higher rate than other QB prospects this year (Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold).

 

I haven't watched every game, but I watched enough film of all the QB to say I do see accuracy issues with Allen sometimes, just as I did with Jackson, and they concerned me more because with Jackson I could link them to obvious mechanical issues (footwork, hip) but with Allen I couldn't.  Now Jordan Palmer is on record saying there was an issue he identified and Allen is working on, and it's one I think I wouldn't have picked up on (overstriding with his lead foot).

 

I'm not trying to be a downer here, in the past I've been one who argued I don't see why QB can't improve their mechanics.  I've also been wrong 2x recently in arguing for that.

 

Reading defense is also an issue.  I put that lower down because I think all QB entering the NFL have a lot to learn there - much simpler Ds in college, and slower game speed.