Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

 

 

The o-line and Benjamin stuff is about next year. And frankly, the first year performance of a rookie QB is not worth worrying about. Even the ones who turn out to be good are often bad the first year. And Allen may well spend that first year on the bench.

 

As for his performance this year vs. last year there are some concerns there. But comparing yards totals and TD totals is absolutely flat-out ridiculous. He threw 373 passes in 2016 and 270 in 2017. Of course he threw for much less yards and TDs. He did have some regression but using qualitative rather than quantitative stats here shows nothing. As for the quantitative problems, it's been reported very widely that he lost all of his best players this year, and that caused a lot of problems. Believe that or not, but that's most of the reason.

 

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

[billspro]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To the OP: Would you consider changing your poll to allow more than one choice?

 

 

 

billspro, you're correct that completion percentage is different than accuracy, and it would be lazy if people just look at his completion percentage and say "accuracy issues"

 

That said, people who watch a lot of film (like every game of every QB) and take careful notes assume nothing - they call what they see, and they do see accuracy issues at a higher rate than other QB prospects this year (Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold).

 

I haven't watched every game, but I watched enough film of all the QB to say I do see accuracy issues with Allen sometimes, just as I did with Jackson, and they concerned me more because with Jackson I could link them to obvious mechanical issues (footwork, hip) but with Allen I couldn't.  Now Jordan Palmer is on record saying there was an issue he identified and Allen is working on, and it's one I think I wouldn't have picked up on (overstriding with his lead foot).

 

I'm not trying to be a downer here, in the past I've been one who argued I don't see why QB can't improve their mechanics.  I've also been wrong 2x recently in arguing for that.

 

Reading defense is also an issue.  I put that lower down because I think all QB entering the NFL have a lot to learn there - much simpler Ds in college, and slower game speed.

 

The passes I saw that were inaccurate were usually swing passes. I do think he gets lazy with his mechanics in that area of the field. I also see him throw the ball too hard on shorter throws, he needs to work on his touch throws. The cool thing about Allen is you can see him throw into very tight windows (because his WRs were terrible) accurately on tape. I think his accuracy will look much better than people think by the time the season starts. 

 

I saw inaccuracy on Kizers tape last year and Jackson’s tape this year. The only area I felt Allen was inaccurate was swing passes. I also got ripped on last year for saying Watson was a very accurate QB.

 

If I am wrong though we are in big trouble because inaccurate QBs don’t make it in the NFL.

[LeGOATski]

Accuracy issues. 

 

They're well-documented. It's the major thing he has to improve on in order to be successful.

 

I'm sure they'll help him out with scheme and play calling. Daboll seems qualified enough to get it done.

[The Now Moment]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

I stopped reading after the first guy said he won't be successful because of his stats.  The stats argument is for the lazy people who don't care to look at game film

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted “ability to read a defense” because honestly, that is a concern for any QB coming out of college. Can you adjust to what pro defenses will throw at you.

[billspro]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The o-line and Benjamin stuff is about next year. And frankly, the first year performance of a rookie QB is not worth worrying about. Even the ones who turn out to be good are often bad the first year. And Allen may well spend that first year on the bench.

 

As for his performance this year vs. last year there are some concerns there. But comparing yards totals and TD totals is absolutely flat-out ridiculous. He threw 373 passes in 2016 and 270 in 2017. Of course he threw for much less yards and TDs. He did have some regression but using qualitative rather than quantitative stats here shows nothing. As for the quantitative problems, it's been reported very widely that he lost all of his best players this year, and that caused a lot of problems. Believe that or not, but that's most of the reason.

 

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

 

I actually think Allen will have more time to throw in the NFL and his WRs will probably create more separation. People just assume because he was playing in a bad conference that his job as the QB would be easier. That is not the case. 41% pressure rate would get in any QBs head, combining  that with WRs being blanketed and that is a tough combo. The QB position is very reliant on the talent around them. 

 

I honestly dont think Rosen or Mayfield would have done better than Allen on Wyoming. Darnold may have done better because he has better anticipation than Allen at this point.

Edited May 6, 2018 by billspro

[Logic]

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Logic said:

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

 

False!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

 

False!

Please do explain in some detail with your own “opinion” how this is False! 

 

 

I’ll say it again

if anyone here was truly excellent in evaluating NFL talent they wouldn’t be here they’d have a job in the NFL in some function or another.  You’d be able to put Mel Keiper out of a job.  

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Was about to say the same.

 

That said I voted coaching. Dave Culley is the biggest question mark on the staff for me. 

Culley AND Castillo.  I really wish we would’ve replaced both of those guys.  They scare the crap out of me

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

 

Right on on all points.  I think it was Badlands Meanie who went off to watch Allen game films and came back to say pretty much the same, something like "I can't tell if that guy's any good or not"  We just need to see.

 

I'm surprised by the Rosen and the Rudolph percentages.  I'll have to think about this, but they both (watching film but not taking notes on each play) gave me the "feel" they were under pressure more than they were.  I'll have to think about that.  Perhaps it reflects their relative lack of mobility?

[Buffalo716]

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, hemma said:

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

 

Well, yes, but then the other guys rise to 71% or 75% or 78% or something.

 

You're right, the draft's over and we just have to wait and see at this point.  But to think he'll get "4 years and judge" is unfortunately just impractical in today's FA NFL.  In 4 years we have to make a decision about picking up his option and negotiating a new contract.  He needs to be playing well enough to decide if he's "worth the big bucks" by year 3.

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

 

Now there you go, 716, mixing up accuracy with completion percentage

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, yes, but then the other guys rise to 71% or 75% or 78% or something.

 

You're right, the draft's over and we just have to wait and see at this point.  But to think he'll get "4 years and judge" is unfortunately just impractical in today's FA NFL.  In 4 years we have to make a decision about picking up his option and negotiating a new contract.  He needs to be playing well enough to decide if he's "worth the big bucks" by year 3.

 

Now there you go, 716, mixing up accuracy with completion percentage

 

I know they aren’t mutual... 

 

but he played under center well over 40% in a pro style offense.

 

he wasn’t in an air raid or spread which inflated his stats.

 

yes, he had some inaccurate throws, a lot of it was due to footwork 

 

he has ALOT of other throws on tape where he is very accurate as well.

 

He also had to run for his life behind a porous oline.

 

If I had to forecast Joshs stats in an air raid, I think It would correlate to at least 62-63% because the scheme and nobody would say he’s super inaccurate 

 

EJ was 65% in college and I can tell you RN haplesss that Allen throws a MUCH BETTER ball than EJ

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I know they aren’t mutual... 

 

but he played under center well over 40% in a pro style offense.

 

he wasn’t in an air raid or spread which inflated his stats.

 

yes, he had some inaccurate throws, a lot of it was due to footwork 

 

he has ALOT of other throws on tape where he is very accurate as well.

 

He also had to run for his life behind a prodous o line.

 

If I had to forecast Joshs stats in an air raid, I think It would correlate to at least 62-63% because the scheme and nobody would say he’s super inaccurate 

 

EJ was 65% in college and I can tell you RN haplesss that Allen throws a MUCH BETTER ball than EJ

 

When I worry about Allen's accuracy, for me (and I'm sure in part for you), it's not his completion percentage that bothers me.

 

It's the throws he makes where I don't see an obvious mechanical thing, and the ball doesn't go where it should.  Yeah, he's under pressure, yeah some of them might be WR misreading the coverage or mistaking their route against the coverage they see.  But you can see IMO the same thing in the pro day and at the combine in some of his throws.  Now maybe it's a footwork issue, if so it's subtle to me.   The available film doesn't always make it possible to see, too.  (I wish they had more topical announcing at those things)

 

And yes, Allen has his moments where he just throws lasers, no one could do it better.  Which is, of course, why our Draft Brain Trust decided the risk/benefit was favorable.  I'm also sure the kind of offense he ran and the fact that he played under center came into the e v a l.

 

EJ was said to have "zip code accuracy" despite his 65%+ completion percentage for the same reason IMO - throws where his WR bailed him out but the ball just wasn't where it should have been.

[Billsflyer12]

Stats will never be able to tell you everything about what a player can do.  They can provide a lot of information, along with historical reference that paint a probability of success.  And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of a top-10 pick.

 

Is is possible he could be the outlier from the past decade of data, YES.  Do I hope he is the outlier, YES.  Was Tom Brady an outlier, YES. But the overall data picture tells us historically his probilility of success is really small.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When I worry about Allen's accuracy, for me (and I'm sure in part for you), it's not his completion percentage that bothers me.

 

It's the throws he makes where I don't see an obvious mechanical thing, and the ball doesn't go where it should.  Yeah, he's under pressure, yeah some of them might be WR misreading the coverage or mistaking their route against the coverage they see.  But you can see IMO the same thing in the pro day and at the combine in some of his throws.  Now maybe it's a footwork issue, if so it's subtle to me.

 

And yes, Allen has his moments where he just throws lasers, no one could do it better.  Which is, of course, why our Draft Brain Trust decided the risk/benefit was favorable.

 

EJ was said to have "zip code accuracy" despite his 65%+ completion percentage for the same reason IMO - throws where his WR bailed him out but the ball just wasn't where it should have been.

 

Yes, EJ had area code accuracy. High and wide, low and and away etc. he struggled to put it on the $$$ anytime

 

When Josh is right, he is on the $$$... perfectly on the chest in stride... he has to build off that

 

and yes there are throws he missed on tape that make me scratch my head. But mechanics , especially lower body, are so important for repetition and so hard to see sometimes 

 

100 times out of 100 when Brady does his drop, his lower body is on point. His base and stride and feet are all in unison and perfect 

 

Josh isn’t at that point, and he can still have a habit of using all arm over his lower body... hence he sails some swing passes because he thinks he can just use his arm, when he really needs to have his waist , legs and base under control 

 

I feel like this is what Palmer had been doing with him the most 

[Fadingpain]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.

 

Don't see your point.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.

 

Don't see your point.

 

 

 

Allen isn’t highly innacurate.  Add 1 completion a game to compensate for his drops, which there were 1 a game... and his completion % is above 60% and nobody is saying he’s super innacurate 

 

He throws a great deep and mid ball

 

1 completion a game is nothing, he could’ve easily been a 60% passer

 

its not far off 

 

if he was 100 completions off their would be major concern 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[RochesterRob]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

  But, but I was told many times here that QB's would not be available after 2018 ala most Ford sedans.  So, they ARE making QB's?  Lt. Dan?  You got new legs!

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

So inaccurate...

 

What are you trying to say? Do you think he IS An accurate passet?

[TUBSTER]

There are plenty of QB's that don't turn out well because of accuracy, but that doesn't mean all of them do.  Here are some QB's that threw under 60% in their college career:

Brett Favre 52.4%

Matt Ryan 59.9%

Matthew Stafford 57.1%

Michael Vick 56%

Jim Kelly 55.6%

Joe Montana 52%

Dan Marino 57.6%

 

Josh Allen 56.2%

 

Also note that if Allen had completed 1 and 1/2 more passes per game this year he would have been at 62% instead of 56%

 

[Billsflyer12]

5 minutes ago, TUBSTER said:

There are plenty of QB's that don't turn out well because of accuracy, but that doesn't mean all of them do.  Here are some QB's that threw under 60% in their college career:

Brett Favre 52.4%

Matt Ryan 59.9%

Matthew Stafford 57.1%

Michael Vick 56%

Jim Kelly 55.6%

Joe Montana 52%

Dan Marino 57.6%

 

Josh Allen 56.2%

 

Also note that if Allen had completed 1 and 1/2 more passes per game this year he would have been at 62% instead of 56%

 

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

[TUBSTER]

16 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

Yes, that does make sense.  Just trying to point out not every great QB threw 70% in college so he has a small chance at not sucking.

[Tyrod's friend]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

1 completion a game is nothing, he could’ve easily been a 60% passer

 

its not far off 

 

 

Not pointing this at Buffalo716, but generally every one that is simply parroting what Allen has said about this "1 pass a game" bullsh!t.

The guy completed 156 passed as a senior. Increasing his completions by 11 (1 per game, presumably) suggests a 7% increase in his accuracy. If you think increasing, and maintaining an improvement by 7% is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm not talking here about changing environments - I'm talking about constant environments and making that move. 

It's just not. 

This is basically the "Crash Davis" argument you are making. The incremental move IS incredibly difficult - which is why (using the Bull Durham example) there are so few guys that can do it. 

You are making an absurd argument when you make it. It IS A BIG DEAL and it IS hard to do. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.  

WRT Tyrod you are correct.  

 

WRT Allen I think it’s a bit too early to make a definitive statement as to his NFL performance.   

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[Buffalo716]

42 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

Not pointing this at Buffalo716, but generally every one that is simply parroting what Allen has said about this "1 pass a game" bullsh!t.

The guy completed 156 passed as a senior. Increasing his completions by 11 (1 per game, presumably) suggests a 7% increase in his accuracy. If you think increasing, and maintaining an improvement by 7% is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm not talking here about changing environments - I'm talking about constant environments and making that move. 

It's just not. 

This is basically the "Crash Davis" argument you are making. The incremental move IS incredibly difficult - which is why (using the Bull Durham example) there are so few guys that can do it. 

You are making an absurd argument when you make it. It IS A BIG DEAL and it IS hard to do. 

 

They have a bottom 10 line in college football and ran on 1st down and 2nd down mostly leaving Allen I’m 3rd in long like we did to TT a lot 

 

All I said was, and I believe I was the first to parrot it because i did watch every snap of the past season was that Allen wasn’t far off from being a +60 percent passer which is very respectable in that offense and behind that line

 

11 drops over 11 games or 1 completion a game is not huge

 

He projects well to the NFL because he has good experience and tape under center. He can complete 60% in the NFL

 

im not saying he will be some 65% guy but he can push the ball down the field and get to 60%

 

He is a risky pick but can pan out. His chances are good here I like them

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Wayne Arnold]

59 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

What are you trying to say? Do you think he IS An accurate passet?

 

What gave it away? The examples of perfect precision passes?

[Tyrod's friend]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

11 drops over 11 games or 1 completion a game is nothing.

IT IS NOT NOTHING. Increasing your productivity in any endeavor by nearly 10% and maintaining that performance level is F'ING HARD. People try to do it all the time and fail, and in particular in sports. The guy that moves from being a .250 hitter to being a .270 hitter? That happens a lot? No, not really. 

It's a bullsh!t claim and using 11 completions fails to take into consideration that he doesn't throw the ball much. More over, 11 drops? The guy benefited from among the best numbers on dropped balls among the big four.

You are making an idiotic argument here. Drop it or not, but I'm done with responding.

 

[Buffalo716]

37 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

IT IS NOT NOTHING. Increasing your productivity in any endeavor by nearly 10% and maintaining that performance level is F'ING HARD. People try to do it all the time and fail, and in particular in sports. The guy that moves from being a .250 hitter to being a .270 hitter? That happens a lot? No, not really. 

It's a bullsh!t claim and using 11 completions fails to take into consideration that he doesn't throw the ball much. More over, 11 drops? The guy benefited from among the best numbers on dropped balls among the big four.

You are making an idiotic argument here. Drop it or not, but I'm done with responding.

 

 

See ya. He still had a decent amount of dropped balls I can promise you. It’s not even an exact stat by the NCAA

 

as much as Lamar, no, but a bit more than 1 a game.

 

He had 2-3 in a few games

 

Hes the Bills QB and I’m going to back him. He was a consensus top 4 QB in The best QB draft in a while. Even if he was my #4 I still see all the positive things he can do as a QB

 

He is not Jamarcus or JP or EJ innacurate 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[billsfan89]

You can get really down on a QB prospect if you want to and you can make a prospect seem way better than he is if you want to. Allen is a tantalizing QB prospect for various reasons but he is also a risky QB prospect for various reasons. Allen has all the physical tools you want in a QB. He is tall, built like a tank, and Allen has maybe the strongest arm in recent memory. On top of that Allen has the work ethic, intelligence, and by all accounts the leadership intangibles. 

 

But Allen has accuracy issues and smaller issues with footwork and reading a defense. But a lot of people have observed that a lot of Allen's accuracy numbers may have been deflated for various reasons and that Allen's bad footwork and reading of defenses are more a result of offensive line issues he had to play through in college. 

 

I didn't like the pick and I would have went with Rosen, but McBeane as a regime isn't afraid to take risks. They saw Allen as the higher potential player and they went with him. It wasn't the move I would have done but these coaches and scouts know these prospects and that was the call they made. They want the guy they think can be a star QB and were willing to take on the risk. 

[yungmack]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

Magical thinking. Because so many teams need a "franchise QB," the taking of any reasonably sentient QB in the first round therefore magical makes that QB a "franchise QB." In a sane world, he'd have been a late 2nd to a mid 3rd round pick, maybe later  considering his major shortcomings.

[HappyDays]

The correct answer is the one that isn't listed. His ability to handle pressure. That's arguably the biggest concern with most college QBs transitioning to the NFL. Part of the problem is Allen was under pressure way too often in college so it's hard to get a good read on how well he can handle it. But there is too much film where he leaves the pocket early, or panics under perceived pressure and rushes a throw for no reason. I don't think anyone can know for sure if that is fixable. He was able to get away with some of that stuff in college because he was so much bigger and more athletic than his small school competition, but in the NFL he'll have to be much better.

Edited May 6, 2018 by HappyDays

[BigDingus]

2 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

 

I don't like that imaginary stuff anyway, because like you said, he could've just as easily had 1 more incompletion, 1 more interception, 1 more TD, 50 more yards, etc. 

And the 1 and a half more catches is entirely dependent on him not having thrown any extra passes too. If Allen had simply thrown and completed 1 more pass per game, his stats would be 58% completion percentage in 2017 and 57.6% in 2016.

 

Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Right on on all points.  I think it was Badlands Meanie who went off to watch Allen game films and came back to say pretty much the same, something like "I can't tell if that guy's any good or not"  We just need to see.

 

I'm surprised by the Rosen and the Rudolph percentages.  I'll have to think about this, but they both (watching film but not taking notes on each play) gave me the "feel" they were under pressure more than they were.  I'll have to think about that.  Perhaps it reflects their relative lack of mobility?

 

Allen certainly was running for his life more than any other QB

 

Rosen manipulates the pocket well but can’t shrug off a defender or create in the pocket like Allen

 

So when he gets swallowed up in the pocket he’s mostly consumed by the pressure. Maybe that’s what you saw

 

As for Rudolph with his very low number that is definitely a by product of the spread

[Stanley Lombardi]

13 hours ago, Mickey said:

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

Subtle as a sledgehammer.  My regards!

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Stats will never be able to tell you everything about what a player can do.  They can provide a lot of information, along with historical reference that paint a probability of success.  And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of a top-10 pick.

 

Is is possible he could be the outlier from the past decade of data, YES.  Do I hope he is the outlier, YES.  Was Tom Brady an outlier, YES. But the overall data picture tells us historically his probilility of success is really small.

 

 

The overall data picture tells us very little or nothing. There just isn't a large enough sample of guys from the last 15 years or so who had completion percentages below 60% and yet were picked in the top ten. 

 

Three guys? Stafford, Ryan and Allen? Are there any more?

 

What this tells you is that he is an outlier for being picked in the top ten. Guys with completion percentages as low as that, and there are probably hundreds of them over the last 15 years, are generally not considered pro prospects. Yet Allen was, and a top ten guy besides. Why? Because stats don't tell the whole story. Because when the professional evaluators looked at his game they saw some bad signs and a lot of good ones too, and the good outweighed the bad.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Wayne Arnold]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

 

Allen improved greatly as a senior from a mental standpoint. Was much, much less of a gunslinger than he was in 2016. Unfortunately, his teammates got worse. It took until the second half of the season for the freshmen to reach the point where they weren't a massive hindrance.

 

Also unfortunately, Allen injured his shoulder at exactly the wrong time - during the 10th game when the offense was starting to get hot. He had to miss the last two regular season games - and you could tell how valuable he was to the offense simply through those two games: 7 points against Fresno State, and a loss to the worst team in college football.

 

All-conference picks are meaningless.

[Magox]

Is Allen truly a classic boom or bust sort of prospect?  That's the word you hear from some of the pundits and the people who like to repeat what they hear.  

Why is it that he has been labeled as such from some quarters?

 

The supposed reasons are:

 

A) He has a low completion percentage, the often quoted 56% rate.  The narrative that has been written is that if you have a low completion percentage throughout your college career the odds show that QB's tend to have a uphill mountain to overcome and that this usually is indicative of a QB not having a successful NFL career.

 

B) He is another QB in the mold of others who were known to have big arms with little accuracy who went on to be busts, therefore Allen fits that mold.

 

C) He has terrible footwork and most QB's who have terrible footwork usually are not able to correct that problem as they get into the NFL.

 

Those are the most-often cited narratives that you hear about Allen and why he is a classic boom or bust sort of prospect.

 

I wholeheartedly disagree.

 

A) Looking at his completion percentage as virtually a be - all - and - end -all metric is silly and entirely without context.   Look at EJ Manuel,  I believe he had a 65% completion average his last year in college and people pointed to that as proof that he was not inaccurate.  Yet when you watched the film on him the passes were primarily short passes and usually they weren't well placed.  Watching the tape on Allen and you'll see that he isn't nearly as inaccurate as his reputation among pundits.  When you look back at all his throws he must have either have been forced out of the pocket or hurried on his throws on at least 40% of his passes.  Not to mention that didn't have a good group of WR's that could separate. 

 

B) The big one that comes to mind is J. Russell, huge arm that ended up being a bust.  He was mainly a bust because he simply didn't have the intestinal fortitude and desire to succeed.  Not to mention that aside from his big arm and some running ability there wasn't that much to him.  This is simply not the case with Allen.  The guy is a leader and has the desire to improve and persevere. 

 

C) Yeah, his footwork had issues because he was running for his life extending plays.  Don't get me wrong, as another poster pointed out his inaccurate short passes largely also had to do with him not resetting his feet properly when he looked to check down.  I do believe that he will get that corrected and we have begun to see evidence of that in the Senior bowl.

 

I happen to think he has a much higher floor then what we hear repeated over and over.  To be honest, I think his floor is much closer to where Bortles is than a J. Russell.  I also happen to believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that he ends up being a better QB in this league than Flacco.  And I think there is a legitimate possibility that he could end up being similar in the mold of a Roethlisberger.    I believe that because my view is that he has elite escape capability to extend plays and the arm and accuracy to punish teams down the field and when you combine that with his size/strength and athletic ability that is a deadly trifecta to possess.   

 

I think he'll be a decent in the pocket passer, but where he'll make a name for himself will be outside of the tackles similar to that of a Rodgers or Roethlisberger.

 

The Bills just need to ease him along with a heavy dose of the run, RPO and play action passes and cut the field in half for him.    Get him a good line and another WR and I think we'll see that we have found our franchise QB.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Magox

[eball]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The Bills just need to ease him along with a heavy dose of the run, RPO and play action passes and cut the field in half for him.    Get him a good line and another QB and I think we'll see that we have found our franchise QB.

 

Hmm...a 2-QB system.  Interesting take. 

 

I agree with you, by the way, that Allen's "floor" is not nearly what some are making it out to be.

 

The ceiling is the roof.

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by eball