Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[Nanker]

The Bills just need to let him AIR IT OUT!

[Magox]

Just now, eball said:

 

Hmm...a 2-QB system.  Interesting take. 

 

I agree with you, by the way, that Allen's "floor" is not nearly what some are making it out to be.

 

Corrected

[ddaryl]

He is a classic boom or bust player or somewheres in between.

 

Until he plays everything anyone says is just opinion.

 

Personally I will start to make up my mind when I'm watching him actually play NFL games in preseason and then some...

 

everyones is burning out on other peoples opinion on the matter

Edited May 7, 2018 by ddaryl

[billybob71]

All these so called pundits on that list seem to be spewing forth the same regurgitated message. I guess that's what they get paid to do- have polarizing opinions without much thought or research. From what I have watched of the kid I don't see major accuracy issues there are some inconsistencies but what qb prospect doesn't have them? He has one of the most natural and effortless throwing motions and quick  releases I have seen in my 40+ years of watching football. The big question is whether he can read defenses and process quickly but  hell thats a big question with all of em. If he proves he can do this watch out we will have ourselves guite a qb my friends!!!

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Allen certainly was running for his life more than any other QB

 

Rosen manipulates the pocket well but can’t shrug off a defender or create in the pocket like Allen

So when he gets swallowed up in the pocket he’s mostly consumed by the pressure. Maybe that’s what you saw

 

As for Rudolph with his very low number that is definitely a by product of the spread

 

Yeah, it may be that Rosen spends more time in the pocket, so he looks more pressured than he is to me.

 

With Rudolph, thinking about it - I'm not overall a big college football fan - nothing against it, just hasn't fit in our schedule/lifestyle to watch it much.  So I'm wondering if part of what I saw as Rudolph reacting to pressure was actually designed roll-outs in the air-raid offense he ran, that I failed to recognize as such through lower familiarity with that type of offense.

 

I think the most interesting set of statistics I saw this year were generated by my man Kzoo Mike, so I'm gonna give him a little bump here. 

 

He looked at the NFL success or failure of college QB in 3 different bins for college rushing yards and college passing yards, then compared the college stats to the current draft crop.  His bottom line was college QB with a moderate amount of offense gained by rushing were most successful in the NFL - either high (>17.5%) or low (<0.5%) translated less well.   At first I was like "WTF?" but then, when I started to think about it, it kind of made sense - since college stats bin sacks in with rushing yards, maybe very low rushing yards indicates poor pocket awareness or inadequate mobility.  On the other end, high rushing yardage may mean a guy isn't proficient at making reads and progressing.

 

I'd like to see his data set (have asked 2x) for which NFL QB he binned where - but it's definitely the most thought-provoking and novel set of metrics I've seen.  I know you're not a stats geek but give it a look. 

 

Anyway he concluded there were 2 draftee QB who avoided the "highest bust rate" bins by both criteria.  Those were Allen and Mayfield.

 

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

If you  make it about film and stats, Allen is always going to look poor. 

He's not a production pick, he's a projection pick. 

[RollBillsRoll]

19 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West,

No kidding? I didn't even realize that, I knew he wasn't highly recruited coming out of JUCO,  but I I figured with all the hype he was POTY or similar. Interesting that coaches in his own conference weren't impressed but the NFL guys went nuts for him. Will be fun to watch his career arc.

[Soda Popinski]

I voted accuracy but I believe it is actually a correctable issue for him with mechanics and fundamental work also WRs who can actually catch helps too.   

 

The high football IQ is encouraging, the arm is encouraging, the senior bowl tape is encouraging, running a pro style offense with protections called out at the line is encouraging.   

[GG]

19 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

I don't like that imaginary stuff anyway, because like you said, he could've just as easily had 1 more incompletion, 1 more interception, 1 more TD, 50 more yards, etc. 

And the 1 and a half more catches is entirely dependent on him not having thrown any extra passes too. If Allen had simply thrown and completed 1 more pass per game, his stats would be 58% completion percentage in 2017 and 57.6% in 2016.

 

Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

 

That's why stats only tell you part of the story, and I have a feeling that many of the people who harp on the 57% completion percentage made up their minds about inaccuracy and won't let go, game film be damned.   The trouble with the analogy to Bull Durham, etc is that it tries to compare Allen's stats to an action that is solely under Allen's control, like hitting away from a defender, vs something that requires an action from another player, like a WR making the catch.

 

So, I'll offer up the 2017 Hawaii game as an example.  Allen came out with a pretty bad stat line 9 for 19, 1TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks.  That should be enough to send the pitchforks in high gear.  But upon closer inspection, you will find a different story.  of the 10 incompletes, there were 4 cringe-worthy dropped passes and a hail mary to end the 1st half.  Otherwise, there were really only 2 passes where the receiver didn't have a chance at all.  

 

The only criticism of his play in that game was 1 misguided pass that would have been a pick-6 in the NFL.  But for 18 other passes, he was on target for nearly all of them

[Buffalo716]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, it may be that Rosen spends more time in the pocket, so he looks more pressured than he is to me.

 

With Rudolph, thinking about it - I'm not overall a big college football fan - nothing against it, just hasn't fit in our schedule/lifestyle to watch it much.  So I'm wondering if part of what I saw as Rudolph reacting to pressure was actually designed roll-outs in the air-raid offense he ran, that I failed to recognize as such through lower familiarity with that type of offense.

 

I think the most interesting set of statistics I saw this year were generated by my man Kzoo Mike, so I'm gonna give him a little bump here. 

 

He looked at the NFL success or failure of college QB in 3 different bins for college rushing yards and college passing yards, then compared the college stats to the current draft crop.  His bottom line was college QB with a moderate amount of offense gained by rushing were most successful in the NFL - either high (>17.5%) or low (<0.5%) translated less well.   At first I was like "WTF?" but then, when I started to think about it, it kind of made sense - since college stats bin sacks in with rushing yards, maybe very low rushing yards indicates poor pocket awareness or inadequate mobility.  On the other end, high rushing yardage may mean a guy isn't proficient at making reads and progressing.

 

I'd like to see his data set (have asked 2x) for which NFL QB he binned where - but it's definitely the most thought-provoking and novel set of metrics I've seen.  I know you're not a stats geek but give it a look. 

 

Anyway he concluded there were 2 draftee QB who avoided the "highest bust rate" bins by both criteria.  Those were Allen and Mayfield.

 

 

 

 

Thanks! I always like to look at some advanced stats...

 

well it may not be fool proof I definitely think their may be some correlation there

 

like you said, A QB with high rushing yards may be prone to bailing pockets early and never become a true QB

 

while one with little or nagative yards may have a problem feeing pressure or avoiding it...

 

there is definitely a happy medium and I think Allen feels pressure well and can escape it as good as anyone

[BigBuff423]

On 5/6/2018 at 1:47 AM, BigDingus said:

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. 

 

People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB.

 

Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from.

**********************************************************************

1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) -

"The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:
MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?
ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?
JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?
ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players"

"I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown.

 

There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

 

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

 

 

2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) -

 

(Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to

take him"

 

 

3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) -

(Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL."

 

 

4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) -

(Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive."

 

5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) -
 

"I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him"

6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) -

"The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season."

 

7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) -
 

(Pick Grade: F)  The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.

This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor.

 

8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) -

(Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support."

 

 

9. Nate Davis (USA Today) -

"Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge"

 

 

10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) -

(Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma.

He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback.

The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork.

The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get."

 

11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) -

"I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen"

 

12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up"

 

13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years"

 

14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) -
 

"Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems."

 

**********************************************************************

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

 

I'm hoping the Twitter account, Old Takes Exposed is taking note of each of these and IF and when Josh Allen becomes  the legit franchise QB of the Buffalo Bills, everyone one of these ninnies are brought back to their freezing cold take. Josh Allen may NOT be the QB answer we've long been searching for, but I love when people make these concrete statements as though they're fact. I was not an Allen guy prior to Draft, I wanted either Rosen or the Bills to wait and get Rudolph in the 2nd - and not trade away picks b/c I think the team really needed them - but to say definitively one way or the other at this point, is foolish. 

 

Now that Allen will be wearing a Bills uni, I am fully on board the Allen train and hoping he proves ever doubter wrong and that he commands a prolific Bills Offense for the next 15 years to multiple Lombardi trophies. If he flames out - then so be it but the Bills did what many on this board wanted: go and get your guy, no waiting, no hedging, no letting him "fall in our lap"....go get him. They did that and we now know, they didn't "luck" into him because if they had really liked Rosen more than Allen, they could have just chosen him. This means they got the guy they wanted and since no future picks were surrendered, they have the Draft capital and Cap space next year to build around him, after he's had a year to get the Rookie dust off his shoulders. 

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, RollBillsRoll said:

No kidding? I didn't even realize that, I knew he wasn't highly recruited coming out of JUCO,  but I I figured with all the hype he was POTY or similar. Interesting that coaches in his own conference weren't impressed but the NFL guys went nuts for him. Will be fun to watch his career arc.

 

Coaches don't vote for all-conference teams. That's media.

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Coaches don't vote for all-conference teams. That's media.

 

I haven’t checked in a while but it was always coaches that voted when I played

 

All conference teams in CFB are usually voted on by the coaches

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, TheElectricCompany said:

If you  make it about film and stats, Allen is always going to look poor. 

He's not a production pick, he's a projection pick. 

 

Film, you say?

 

 

 

 

[Westside Madness]

What came to mind is that for the last several years watching Bills games, I think my assessment of a quarterback comes down to one simple play. Can you or cant you? Can you throw a 15 yard out route that hits the receiver and has a low % of being intercepted (based on ball placement)?

 

I understand there are tons of other plays and attributes, etc. But if I sit and think about it, this is the one play that none of our QBs have been able to make. Either inaccurate (out of bounds, too far ahead of the WR, into the ground, etc.) or snack food for the DB/LB.

 

Once I see a few of these completed per game, I will start to develop some confidence in our offense. That being said, the criticisms that have been made about Allen support him not being able to make this throw. Hopefully it was footwork and that is getting worked out. Otherwise, hopefully McCarron can make the throw.

 

And as a reminder, I know there is a lot more involved in the overall success of a QB, just sharing this recurring thought that haunts me every time I watch a Bills game.

[John from Riverside]

On 5/6/2018 at 12:08 AM, Fadingpain said:

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

Jesus give it a rest

[Wayne Arnold]

5 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

What came to mind is that for the last several years watching Bills games, I think my assessment of a quarterback comes down to one simple play. Can you or cant you? Can you throw a 15 yard out route that hits the receiver and has a low % of being intercepted (based on ball placement)?

 

That being said, the criticisms that have been made about Allen support him not being able to make this throw.

 

I take it you've never seen Josh Allen play?

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

What came to mind is that for the last several years watching Bills games, I think my assessment of a quarterback comes down to one simple play. Can you or cant you? Can you throw a 15 yard out route that hits the receiver and has a low % of being intercepted (based on ball placement)?

 

I understand there are tons of other plays and attributes, etc. But if I sit and think about it, this is the one play that none of our QBs have been able to make. Either inaccurate (out of bounds, too far ahead of the WR, into the ground, etc.) or snack food for the DB/LB.

 

Once I see a few of these completed per game, I will start to develop some confidence in our offense. That being said, the criticisms that have been made about Allen support him not being able to make this throw. Hopefully it was footwork and that is getting worked out. Otherwise, hopefully McCarron can make the throw.

 

And as a reminder, I know there is a lot more involved in the overall success of a QB, just sharing this recurring thought that haunts me every time I watch a Bills game.

........

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I take it you've never seen Josh Allen play?

 

Lol yea

 

the deep out is one of the best balls in his inventory 

[Westside Madness]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

........

I apologize for posting a viewpoint that doesn't directly attack or support Allen. That might derail the positive and conducive dialog being had here. Ironically, the constant back and forth arguing over Allen is actually in line with the intention of the OP, so my post is the outlier.

 

Carry on. I am sure one side will convince the other side of their position and views. Its bound to happen.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Westside Madness

[Wayne Arnold]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Lol yea

 

the deep out is one of the best balls in his inventory 

 

Seriously. Even the harshest Allen critics will say "At least he can hit a 15 yard out as well as I've ever seen."