Insightful Analysis From Warren Sharp Reveals Potential Red Flags With Josh Allen as QB

[BuffaloMatt]

Easier read 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2761942-wyoming-oc-brent-vigen-qa-is-josh-allen-the-next-carson-wentz

 

[mileena]

Sounds like this Warren Sharp is not that sharp.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 minutes ago, Thurmal34 said:

 

So the seventh pick in the draft is someone that needs to be “fixed”?

 

Awesome!

 

The first pick in the draft may need to learn how to play under center. 

 

Look at it this way... band aid is ripped off and the chips are in the center of the table. It’s either going to be one of the best, or one of the worst pick in franchise history. And we will know in less than 24 months 

 

 

[dakrider]

Wyoming had run the ball successfully the previous 2 years and coach Bohl's philosophy is to run the ball.  Even though they weren't successful they still attempted to run the ball.  What actually resulted is Allen was often left with a lot of 3rd down and longs.  In the NFL, QB's completion percentages for 3rd and long is in the 30's% completion.  As we all know its much more difficult to beat a defense on 3rd down and long than almost any other down.    The offensive line and receivers Wyoming had this year also limited what plays they could run.  Offensively, Allen was the only weapon they had and teams played him accordingly.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

After watching film I'm 100% sure none of his O-Line or WR/TE will be playing in the NFL. That O-Line is just putrid.

[Acantha]

At this point, I think dissecting the stats is just pointless.  There isn't a stat you can pull up on this guy that points to success.  If he works out it will be because of his raw skills and the Bills' ability to bring out the best in him.  The pick is made, he's on the team.  Nothing to do now but wait and hope.

[folz]

If the ONE statistic that he used were a true judge of how good a college QB will be (based on the trust of their college coaching staff), then the draft should have played out in this order:

 

Mayfield

Jackson

Rudolph

Darnold

Rosen

Allen

 

So, is he also saying that Jackson and Rudolph are superior to Darnold or Rosen and should have been the higher picks? If not, then you can't really use that stat to knock another kid. What if certain OCs are just more conservative than others by nature?

Edited April 27, 2018 by folz

[Elite Poster]

59 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

He makes a pretty big assumption that it was because of Allen...and not their offensive line, receivers, etc.  All this shows is that maybe they didn't trust their passing game...not their quarterback.

 

Not to mention the fact that he played in the Mountain West...aka not the south.  There's this little thing called weather.

 

He was the least pressured QB out of all drafted. 

[dorquemada]

3 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

After watching film I'm 100% sure none of his O-Line or WR/TE will be playing in the NFL. That O-Line is just putrid.

 

yup he's on the run every single play and has to make something from the broken play offense. riding the pine for a year, working on his mechanics, and hopefully the Bills improve their passblocking a bit

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

He was the least pressured QB out of all drafted. 

 

based on???

[Elite Poster]

1 minute ago, folz said:

If the ONE statistic that he used were a true judge of how good a college QB will be (based on the trust of their college coaching staff), then the draft should have played out in this order:

 

Mayfield

Jackson

Rudolph

Darnold

Rosen

Allen

 

So, is he also saying that Jackson is superior to Darnold or Rosen and should have been the higher pick?

 

You are taking one piece out of the 100 piece puzzle that says Allen will be bad and trying to make a point.

 

Big picture.

1 minute ago, dorquemada said:

 

yup he's on the run every single play and has to make something from the broken play offense. riding the pine for a year, working on his mechanics, and hopefully the Bills improve their passblocking a bit

 

based on???

 

Stats! His pressure percentage was the lowest out of the top 6. I'll try to find the table.

 

He was also the least accurate under pressure. We got a good one!

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

57 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

No he didn’t blow it. He took a career risk with a boom bust guy. They will either fix the guy and Allen will be John Elway 2.0, or McBeane will be unemployed along with Allen.  There is nothing in between. 

 Yep. Go big or go home. Clearly the staff thought enough of the guy to take him over Rosen. They are far more informed than us, or some on Twitter that came out of nowhere. 

 

I'll wait until he stinks in the pros before crucifying him and the staff. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

When I watch him I feel like he can command and move a offense. Allen needs to work on a few things like all the rookies do, I think with good coaching and a offense that fits the things that he does well that he will succeed. I think if he was the Eagles starting QB that he would be very successful in his rookie year. Beanies main job will be protecting Allen and getting him offensive weapons. His WR's get zero separation, it looks like they run a lot of curls and comeback routs. I'm sure that's by design because of his amazing arm strength. When a guy gets open on the comeback he fires a laser in there that looks to be undefensible. I think if you put him on the Cougars for three years that we would have no chance to draft him at 7.

[jjmac]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen had the lowest drop rate of all the QBs in the draft.

 

His adjusted completion percentage (takes away drops and throw aways) was far and away the worst of all the top QBs in the draft. 

 

And how many other Wyoming players are expected to be drafted?

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

15 minutes ago, jjmac said:

 

And how many other Wyoming players are expected to be drafted?

I'm guessing none, maybe one O-Lineman in the 6th rd.

[Domdab99]

I remember these tweets when I posted them in my thread last week. 

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, jjmac said:

 

And how many other Wyoming players are expected to be drafted?

 

Probably about as many as will be picked from "powerhouses" like Hawaii (47% passes complete, #113 in total D), New Mexico (57%, #67 in total D), Colorado State (50%, #88 in total D), or Central Michigan (58%, #55 in total D).

 

He played bad competition with bad players. 

 

The good teams he played weren't elite defensive powers either. 

 

57% against Iowa (#35 in total D). 37% against Oregon (#42 in total D). 44% against Boise St (#45 in total D). 

Edited April 27, 2018 by jrober38

[jjmac]

On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 3:55 PM, jrober38 said:

 

Probably about as many as will be picked from "powerhouses" like Hawaii (47% passes complete, #113 in total D), New Mexico (57%, #67 in total D), Colorado State (50%, #88 in total D), or Central Michigan (58%, #55 in total D).

 

He played bad competition with bad players. 

 

The good teams he played weren't elite defensive powers either. 

 

57% against Iowa (#35 in total D). 37% against Oregon (#42 in total D). 44% against Boise St (#45 in total D). 

 

My point is that he played with subpar talent around him.

[K-9]

I like the psychological “breakdown” concept by Sharpe; it’s new, so kudos to him for finding a new way to be heard above the other pundits. Speaking of which, when Sharpe or any of these other “analysts” break down EVERY snap a QB prospect has taken in his career while also noting the game situation for EACH one and then discussing several with both the prospect AND his coaches, then I’ll beleive they are on to something half as important. 

[Buffalo716]

What this guy doesn’t realize is every time Allen dropped back to pass he was getting mauled 

 

you can’t air it out all day if you can’t protect the QB

 

Heck, he says coaches will give you confirmation. All His coaches have said that Josh is the savior of the program... and that he IS the offense 

 

He throws, he runs, he buys times.... Bohl believes he is the best

 

That was a bad opinion because you can’t throw 40 times a game when you can’t protect your QB

 

His coaches even say when there is 1 drive left they will take Allen over any QB... that spits in the face of his argument 

On 4/27/2018 at 11:48 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Allen had the lowest drop rate of all the QBs in the draft.

 

His adjusted completion percentage (takes away drops and throw aways) was far and away the worst of all the top QBs in the draft. 

 

Thats really not true though bud, Though it is by some sites. It’s not an exact stat in CFB

 

The stat trackers have him at under 10 drops iirc

 

but I watched every throw from the top 6 and I counted at least 2-3 drops a game Over the 11 game season 

Edited May 1, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Mojo44]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:56 AM, Fan in Chicago said:

Red flags existed on each of the top 5 QBs. There was no clear consensus that any of them is a cant-miss prospect. 

 

This!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[John from Riverside]

I dont see one tweet in there talking about the quality of his pass catchers....none of which where drafted

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[BillsFan17]

I'm 2015 when Coffman was the starter, he threw the ball 241 times while Hill had 281 rushing attempts. If you factor in Allens 60 attempts, then they slightly threw the ball more.

 

In 2016 Allen took over and Hill had 349 carries to Allens' 373 passing attempts. Gentry was also a thousand yard WR and the best target in the passing game.

 

Even then, shows you the philosophy of Wyomings offense. They seemed to be a run heavy team regardless.

 

In 2017, Gentry was gone as was Hill. That's taking away two big time weapons that help a QB. A top tier runner and his best passing option.

 

Again, im not trying to make excuses here, but things need to be put into context.

Edited May 1, 2018 by BillsFan17

[Beast]

So, OP, are you saying we should fire Beane and hire Warren Sapp as our GM?

[Protocal69]

@BuffaloRush You must not play DFS (draftkings or Fanduel) because Warren Sharp did not just come out of nowhere. He has been around for a while now. He puts out a season preview book for fantasy football for a least the last couple of seasons

Edited May 3, 2018 by Protocal69

[Sky Diver]

Allen threw the ball 373 times in 2016 and 270 times in 2017. Wyoming lost a lot of talented offensive players after the 2016 season.

[Heitz]

On 5/1/2018 at 12:40 PM, BillsFan17 said:

I'm 2015 when Coffman was the starter, he threw the ball 241 times while Hill had 281 rushing attempts. If you factor in Allens 60 attempts, then they slightly threw the ball more.

 

In 2016 Allen took over and Hill had 349 carries to Allens' 373 passing attempts. Gentry was also a thousand yard WR and the best target in the passing game.

 

Even then, shows you the philosophy of Wyomings offense. They seemed to be a run heavy team regardless.

 

In 2017, Gentry was gone as was Hill. That's taking away two big time weapons that help a QB. A top tier runner and his best passing option.

 

Again, im not trying to make excuses here, but things need to be put into context.

 

Was just doing some looking and was wondering how it's possible to have 9 Freshmen WRs in 2016 and then even MORE Freshmen WRs in 2017.  In '17 they had 11 Freshman. 4 Sophomores and just one Junior WR.  No Seniors.

 

Who knows what effect that had on the passing game, but I'm guessing at least some...

 

[SoTier]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:49 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Serious question - when was the last time a "boom or bust" QB boomed?

 

I can't find any who were drafted in the first round in the last 2 or 3 decades.  Favre might be the only one during that entire time period but he was a second rounder.  Was Jake Plummer considered a boon-or-bust project?  He was a high second rounder back in '97 IIRC.   Current 2nd round picks like Dalton, Garoppolo, and Carr and third round pick Wilson don't seem to be boom-or-busters, either.  They seem to have been drafted about where they should have been for their measurables and their readiness for the NFL.  Guys drafted on Day 3 can't really be busts because if they become even modestly successful backups, their teams are ahead of the game because nothing much was expected of them. 

[BuffaloRush]

35 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

@BuffaloRush You must not play DFS (draftkings or Fanduel) because Warren Sharp did not just come out of nowhere. He has been around for a while now. He puts out a season preview book for fantasy football for a least the last couple of seasons

 

No I don’t play Draft Kings.  It really seems

that this season he’s gotten quite a bit more mainstream appearances on shows etc

[Fadingpain]

Love all the rationalization going on in this thread.  Everyone playing the "Let's find ways to attack the validity of the tweets" not b/c it is misguided or wrong, but because posters don't like the outcome.

 

Vintage TSW.

 

[H2o]

Yeah, myself being an Allen pessimist, I find this more of a speculative opinion than anything. It could have been choices related to time management or due to the lack of protection or even matchups the coach felt his receivers couldn't win. It doesn't mean the coach had a lack of faith in Allen. The coach has done nothing but rave about this young man everywhere. 

[Billsflyer12]

46 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Allen threw the ball 373 times in 2016 and 270 times in 2017. Wyoming lost a lot of talented offensive players after the 2016 season.

Yet, he ranked 101st out of 133 qualifiers in adjusted completion percentage in 2016.

[Heitz]

Not sure what thread linked to this article, but seems pretty relevant for this thread:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2761942-wyoming-oc-brent-vigen-qa-is-josh-allen-the-next-carson-wentz

 

[Sky Diver]

16 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Yet, he ranked 101st out of 133 qualifiers in adjusted completion percentage in 2016.

 

What is “adjusted completion percentage”?

 

You can put numbers around anything. Whether they mean anything or not is another matter.

[Billsflyer12]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

What is “adjusted completion percentage”?

 

You can put numbers around anything. Whether they mean anything or not is another matter.

Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)

[Augie]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:49 AM, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

Wyoming Head Coach, Craig Bohl, who was 6-18 his two years at Wyoming without Allen, and 16-11 his two years with him, doesn't trust Allen with the game in his hands?  

 

I have often wondered about the quality of coaching he received. Not condemning them, just wondering. It’s my hope that with some serious, first rate NFL coaching he can get past the issues that cause so much trepidation. I know, I know....accuracy is rarely if ever fixed....but a lot of very smart people love him too. Time will tell. 

[Wayne Arnold]

11 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)

 

Where does the ACP account for crappy, outdated passing offense and wide receivers who can't get open.

[schoolhouserock]

I would be interested in seeing this stat when Carson’s Wentz was under center for this same coach. I know they had the same head coach... not sure about OC.

 

It would not surprise me at all if they too had a high percentage of runs. This is an offensive system stat, nothing more.

[Wayne Arnold]

2 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I would be interested in seeing this stat when Carson’s Wentz was under center for this same coach. I know they had the same head coach... not sure about OC.

 

It would not surprise me at all if they too had a high percentage of runs. This is an offensive system stat, nothing more.

 

The head coach and offensive coordinator left North Dakota State when Wentz was a sophomore - before Wentz ever even started a game there.

 

I'll let you all decide what that says about the intelligence and wisdom of Allen's Wyoming coaches.

[Turk71]

Maybe the OC was an idiot, just another possibility.