Staying at #21 and drafting QB ... can you still get a top prospect?

[Rigotz]

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

[Pete]

Drew Brees went in round 2.  Nick Foles went in 3rd.  Brady went in 6th.  Russel Wilson went in 3rd. Aaron Rogers went at 24.

 

So the answer is yes, I think we can draft a great QB at 21

[ricojes]

18 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

Yes, 8 teams that may need a QB, but definitely not guaranteed to take one.  It's an impossible question to answer, there are so many variables that go into the draft.  First you have free agency and trades.  The combine always changes up these ridiculous early mock drafts.  And during the draft, I would assume there will be a trade up from at least one team to get their QB.  That would change the outcome of a lot of teams boards.  If Cincinnati is picking and the top 3 QB's they like are gone, they aren't going to draft a QB.  And that goes for every team.  Could the Bills get a quality QB at 21?  Possibly, I guess...

Edited February 8, 2018 by ricojes

[BuffaloRebound]

Can you get lucky?... yes.   But you're counting on a bunch of QB needy teams in front of you passing.  So I'd say it's not a sound strategy to land your guy.  

[KGun12TD]

YES! I think Rodgers, Cousins, Wilson and a few other were picked past 20th and became franchise QBs.

[Mr. WEO]

Let me check the other QBs at 21 threads before I answer yes or no...

[Mat68]

Possibly Jackson is there.  Eveyone can hold on to Rodgers falling like Marino but the majority of guys picked where Buffalo is Weedon, Brady Quinn, an johny Manziel.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Best of luck without a tradeup.

 

Honestly, I'm starting to think we should tank THIS year. Trade off TT, Shady, Glenn and anyone else with a high price tag, fill holes in draft, sputter to 1-3 wins and then go QB.

 

[yungmack]

10 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

The only teams picking ahead of the Bills who I think will expend a high pick on a QB are the Browns, Jets and Cardinals, and it's quite possible one or more of them fills the slot with a FA or a trade.

[Teddy KGB]

Doubtful.    Gotta trade up.  

 

Should never have traded down.  

[Da webster guy]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

Drew Brees went in round 2.  Nick Foles went in 3rd.  Brady went in 6th.  Russel Wilson went in 3rd. Aaron Rogers went at 24.

 

So the answer is yes, I think we can draft a great QB at 21

 

We can also flip a coin and get tails 10 times in a row, but it's not likely.

 

Beane and McD know they are gone in a few years if they don't keep this team improving.  Can't be done without the QB.   They won't stay put because the odds are too much higher with the first few qb's than the 5th or 6th guy.   If it was your career, wouldn't you want the best odds?

[RochesterRob]

12 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

  I have it on good authority from many here that all these other teams will magically do other than what would be most logical which would be take a QB because the draft expense for them is pretty low.  You are confirming my feeling that we could see a serious run on QB through the first dozen picks.  At that point I would rather get a top 2 player for the DL or LB and stay put at 21 and 22 than burn two ones to get the sixth rated QB.   If these prospects fall heavily into the AFC and are half the players many here claim them to be then we are going to need stout defense and power OL blocking to offset that advantage.

[DCOrange]

It'll probably be close, but based on historical trends, there has been one draft in NFL history in which five QBs were taken in the top 20, so history would suggest there's a decent chance that the #5 QB is still available at 21, which, in the case of this year's draft, is a good prospect IMO.

 

I don't think it's completely necessary to trade up, and I fear that a massive trade up may be too costly, but if the front office thinks that one or two of the QBs are on a different tier than the rest, I wouldn't blame them for doing so. Trading up a few picks to secure one of them makes as much sense for Buffalo as it does for Pittsburgh or New Orleans; probably even more-so.

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

We can also flip a coin and get tails 10 times in a row, but it's not likely.

 

Beane and McD know they are gone in a few years if they don't keep this team improving.  Can't be done without the QB.   They won't stay put because the odds are too much higher with the first few qb's than the 5th or 6th guy.   If it was your career, wouldn't you want the best odds?

  The trouble is this thread points out how expensive that will be.  To move up to slot three will cost much more than two number 1's.  Teams drafting in the top 12 will be well aware of the market which says demand will greatly out strip supply.  I would say that our two number 1's and our high second would be iffy to buy our way into the 12th spot which would be an iffy prospect.  We would have to greatly sweeten that offer to get up to pick 3.  Probably next years one and third to boot.  No way for somebody not named Manning.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I like Rudolph at 21

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The trouble is this thread points out how expensive that will be.  To move up to slot three will cost much more than two number 1's.  Teams drafting in the top 12 will be well aware of the market which says demand will greatly out strip supply.  I would say that our two number 1's and our high second would be iffy to buy our way into the 12th spot which would be an iffy prospect.  We would have to greatly sweeten that offer to get up to pick 3.  Probably next years one and third to boot.  No way for somebody not named Manning.

 

Honestly id go full ditka and trade the farm for #1

[wppete]

I would like to trade Tyrord for a 4th, sign Teddy Bridgewater as a FA and draft Mason Rudolph in the first round. 

[nucci]

25 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

Best of luck without a tradeup.

 

Honestly, I'm starting to think we should tank THIS year. Trade off TT, Shady, Glenn and anyone else with a high price tag, fill holes in draft, sputter to 1-3 wins and then go QB.

 

Sarcasm?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, nucci said:

Sarcasm?

 

Eh. I've got a sinking feeling we're gonna end up with the 6-7th guy this year. No good.

 

Another year of QB fail is too much to stomach.

 

[Kwai San]

27 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

Best of luck without a tradeup.

 

Honestly, I'm starting to think we should tank THIS year. Trade off TT, Shady, Glenn and anyone else with a high price tag, fill holes in draft, sputter to 1-3 wins and then go QB.

 

 

Step.  Away.  From.  The.  Pipe.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Honestly id go full ditka and trade the farm for #1

  Not enough there IMO for the Browns to bite on that.  Then there is the issue of Barkley and his being a guy that comes along only once in ten or fifteen years. If you are going up to one then you take the closer to the sure thing especially when Shady's odometer is closing in on 200,000 miles so to speak.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Kwai San said:

 

Step.  Away.  From.  The.  Pipe.

 

What's your plan, guy?

 

[Happy]

6 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Honestly id go full ditka and trade the farm for #1

 

And how did that end up for him?

[SoCal Deek]

How many times are we going to go over this!  NO, you cannot get a 'top' prospect at 21 or 22.  By definition, if they're a top prospect what are they still doing in the green room at 21?

[Kwai San]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

What's your plan, guy?

 

 

I'd rather watch something rather than nothing.......besides no way they would do that and you know it.

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Honestly id go full ditka and trade the farm for #1

 

1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

And how did that end up for him?

 

[Nineforty]

My friend keeps talking about getting a QB at #21.  I'd hope whichever QB we take (if we do) that we believe they belong at the top of the 1st round.  Would we have the necessary intel on all the other teams to sit pat and draft at 21 if you're convinced on someone? 

 

I want them to be convinced of whoever they take and that means in a weird way that I hope they trade up. Or trade back on one of the picks, acquire more ammunition and make the 2019 draft your QB draft.  I'm really okay with any route they choose here which is funny because they are very different options.

[T-Bomb]

Who wants the 4th or 5th best lol.

[simpleman]

33 minutes ago, T-Bomb said:

Who wants the 4th or 5th best lol.

There is a big difference between the 4th or 5th prospect and the 4th or 5th best NFL QB that comes out of the draft. A prospect is just potential. The 4th or 5th QB drafted may also end up being the best NFL QB of the draft. The draft is a gamble, period!

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by simpleman

[Sweats]

Whaley thought he picked gold when he got EJ.

 

Gold, I tell ya.

[purple haze]

55 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

How many times are we going to go over this!  NO, you cannot get a 'top' prospect at 21 or 22.  By definition, if they're a top prospect what are they still doing in the green room at 21?

 

"Top prospect" is a nebulous term.  Perceived top prospects at all positions wash out yearly.  Players who aren't become All-Pros and Hall of Famers.  No one knows which players will be what.  If a player is good enough to be drafted in the first round they are a top prospect. 

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, joesixpack said:

 

Eh. I've got a sinking feeling we're gonna end up with the 6-7th guy this year. No good.

 

Another year of QB fail is too much to stomach.

 

...especially now that we have the ammo and there are some nice prospects at the top? Wasn’t that the point a gaining all this capital? Time to cash in baby!!!

[ndirish1978]

Love all the people saying yes. Yes, it's a possibility. A possibility the Bills have been banking on for 18 years and has not worked out for us once. 

[Dr. Who]

Might as well take Mike White later in the draft if your plan is Rudolph at 21.  I hope we're more proactive, though none of this would be an issue if we had taken Watson or Mahomes last year.  Tre White is a very nice player, but now we are looking to spend a boatload to get the franchise qb that was arguably sitting there right for us.  (I seem to also recall a rumor that we could have traded ten to the Giants, but had a gentleman's agreement with the Chiefs, so maybe we could have had #2 right now.)  

 

 

[Luxy312]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have us getting the fourth best or fifth best QB in the draft by staying at #21.

But that doesn't really seem realistic.

 

Lets look at the teams ahead of us:

1. Browns - Definitely need a QB

2. Giants - Definitely need a QB

5. Broncos - Definitely need a QB

6. Jets - Definitely need a QB

11. Dolphins - I could see them taking a QB (Tannehill is Meh)

12. Bengals - I could see them taking a QB (Dalton is Meh)

15. Cardinals - Definitely need a QB

17. Chargers - I could see them taking a QB (Rivers is old)

 

And lets not forget about the Saints and Steelers, who could trade up a few spots because Brees and Ben have what... 1-2 years left?

 

So ... that's 8 teams in front of us and 2 behind that probably need QBs.

Maybe Keenum / Cousins / Bridgewater fill two or three openings ... but ...

That doesn't exactly leave us with a top choice. What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

• Kirk Cousins will get paid to be the starter somewhere.  Broncos or Cardinals is my guess as they can both win "now".
• 2 of Keenum/Bridgewater/Bradford will go somewhere.  Bridgewater and Bradford both have stated that they believe they are starters.
• I doubt Nick Foles remains the backup to Wentz.  He's going to get paid by someone, and I'm guessing is out of Philadelphia.
• The Giants don't "definitely" need a QB.  If Eli believes he's going to play another 3-4 years, it is not an urgency for the Giants.
• Phillip Rivers is 36 and Tom Brady is 40.  Tell me how hold he is again.  See Eli Manning for reference.
• Ryan Tannehill is 29 and cap friendly.  Serious doubt that the Dolphins waste first rounder on QB when they have so many other needs.
• Andy Dalton is 30.  Same thing as the Dolphins.
• The only way a team like Pittsburgh or New Orleans trade up is if their guy says they're done or this is their last year.

So the way I see it, there's 4 potential starters that are either free agents or will be moved.  There's 5 teams that are a serious threat to pick a QB if they don't otherwise get one of these other 4 guys.  Free agency and trades will play themselves out well before the draft, so we're going to know what's in play on draft day.

 

The other factor to consider is that there is no clear cut #1 college QB in the draft this year.  All of the 5-6 guys that have been part of the discussion as potential first round talent, have flaws.  It really reminds me an awful lot of the 2006 draft.  5 guys taken in the first two rounds and the best of the lot was Jay Cutler picked at #11, selected after Vince Young and Matt Leinart.

 

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Might as well take Mike White later in the draft if your plan is Rudolph at 21.  I hope we're more proactive, though none of this would be an issue if we had taken Watson or Mahomes last year.  Tre White is a very nice player, but now we are looking to spend a boatload to get the franchise qb that was arguably sitting there right for us.  (I seem to also recall a rumor that we could have traded ten to the Giants, but had a gentleman's agreement with the Chiefs, so maybe we could have had #2 right now.)  

 

 

  Watson is hind sight and Mahomes really has not had much of a chance to display what he can or can not do.

[McBean]

Hand Captain Kirk a blank check and keep the picks. Simple.

[RochesterRob]

11 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

• Kirk Cousins will get paid to be the starter somewhere.  Broncos or Cardinals is my guess as they can both win "now".
• 2 of Keenum/Bridgewater/Bradford will go somewhere.  Bridgewater and Bradford both have stated that they believe they are starters.
• I doubt Nick Foles remains the backup to Wentz.  He's going to get paid by someone, and I'm guessing is out of Philadelphia.
• The Giants don't "definitely" need a QB.  If Eli believes he's going to play another 3-4 years, it is not an urgency for the Giants.
• Phillip Rivers is 36 and Tom Brady is 40.  Tell me how hold he is again.  See Eli Manning for reference.
• Ryan Tannehill is 29 and cap friendly.  Serious doubt that the Dolphins waste first rounder on QB when they have so many other needs.
• Andy Dalton is 30.  Same thing as the Dolphins.
• The only way a team like Pittsburgh or New Orleans trade up is if their guy says they're done or this is their last year.

So the way I see it, there's 4 potential starters that are either free agents or will be moved.  There's 5 teams that are a serious threat to pick a QB if they don't otherwise get one of these other 4 guys.  Free agency and trades will play themselves out well before the draft, so we're going to know what's in play on draft day.

 

The other factor to consider is that there is no clear cut #1 college QB in the draft this year.  All of the 5-6 guys that have been part of the discussion as potential first round talent, have flaws.  It really reminds me an awful lot of the 2006 draft.  5 guys taken in the first two rounds and the best of the lot was Jay Cutler picked at #11, selected after Vince Young and Matt Leinart.

 

  I don't hate you for it but a lot of your reasoning is wishful thinking.  Yes, not all of the 8 in the OP might choose a QB but the odds are far from zero that they do not.  I don't think most teams go by a QB's feel but rather the age listed on the QB's W-2.    Your last paragraph just shoots down the idea of a big trade up.  Glad you brought it up though as a reason not to trade the cow for some magic beans.  

6 minutes ago, McBean said:

Hand Captain Kirk a blank check and keep the picks. Simple.

  For how many Quatloo's?

Edited February 8, 2018 by RochesterRob

[Luxy312]

4 minutes ago, McBean said:

Hand Captain Kirk a blank check and keep the picks. Simple.

 

That's a nice thought, but there's much speculation that the Redskins (despite having traded for and signed Alex Smith) will tag him, such that they maintain some trade value.  I would be shocked if they just let him hit free agency.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I like Rudolph at 21

 

....I think you are correct.....maybe I'm reading too much into it, but Beane personally scouted him twice, first at the WVU game and then at his bowl game......gut feel that this gang is conservative with draft capital and FA dollars......don't see multiple picks invested in one player to move up or major FA dollars (ie. Cousins) invested in one player....thus, maximization of both draft capital and FA dollars conservatively......Rudolph is probably their safe but perhaps unsexy pick at 21/22........just a guess..........