Lance Zierlein: Bills should draft 2 WR in the first 3 rounds

[Beck Water]

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-total-access-should-the-bills-draft-two-receivers-in-the-first-three-rounds

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

 

Bottom line: seems nobody buys Beane's presser about how WR isn't a gaping hole for the Bills.

 

Anyway, Lance Zierlein isn't just a clickbait talking head.  He's the guy who does all the draft profiles for NFL.com, and while his grades and round projections are off, when go back and I read his actual scouting reports for strengths and weaknesses after the player has been in the league a while, I find myself nodding.

 

 

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[SCBills]

This, obviously, makes all the sense in the world unless Beane has inside knowledge of WR’s shaking free post 6/1 with Tre’s $$ freeing up.

 

Its maddening to see some of our social media savvy Bills commentators pretend like this shouldn’t be the case. 
 

We all thought we needed an early round investment WR before we traded Diggs.  Now we’ve lost both our outside guys and unless one believes Shakir can consistently win out there, are left with literally Mack Hollins and Justin Shorter.. ideally our WR5 and WR6. 
 

We need two legitimate outside WR’s.. or at least guys who can win outside.. to just have an offense that makes any sense. 
 

[Bruffalo]

Been saying this since before the Diggs trade, now I'm screaming it. 

[Mat68]

Makes sense to me.  If the guys they deem first rders are gone trade down.  Pick up a third.  Beane has a handful of guys he likes.  Wont know until draft night how the order falls. 

[RobbRiddick]

I said this last week. And if there's no 3rd rounder come draft night, get one in the 4th

[Coach Tuesday]

Been saying it.  Find a way to come away with 2 of the top 6-8 receivers in this draft.  Plus another one later and a few more UDFAs.

[Mr. WEO]

the guy on the left?

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Yes! Yes! Yes! We needed a receiver before Diggs was traded. I think a guy like Tez Walker as a second WR after whomever we draft earlier is an option. We have to be active in addressing this need.

[DCofNC]

Have to agree with him.  The team obviously needed help at WR last year and that was WITH a top 10 WR already on the roster.  With Diggs gone, you can hope for Samuel to stay healthy and match 75% of that production and to have Shakir double his production and then you are theoretically almost even.   That said, you are still down the production of Davis which wasn’t great, but it’s still a pretty sizable chunk of yards and TDs.   
 

I don’t think anybody outside of Buffalo would say the Bills are in a better spot than they were at the end of last year and WR production was a major problem down the stretch. 
 

Doubling down and trying to take two guys who can play the boundaries would be a big investment, but I’d argue a necessary one. 

[Logic]

Agreed.

Even BEFORE Diggs left town, everyone in the world said "the Bills need to get more help for Josh". 

Then we shipped a 100 catch, 1,400 yard a year guy out of town, and Gabe Davis -- who, say what you want about him, scored a lot of touchdowns for this team -- is gone.

Now, when I mention double-dipping in rounds 1 and 2 at WR, I get a lot of pushback and people saying "The Bills have other needs!".

But...if the Bills needed to add a receiver BEFORE Diggs and Davis left town, they DAMNED sure need to add TWO of them now!

I understand the arguments for improving the defense, but to me, nothing trumps surrounding our franchise QB with as much weaponry as possible in terms of importance. Let's end this "Bills don't give Allen enough help" narrative once and for all. 

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Agreed.

Even BEFORE Diggs left town, everyone in the world said "the Bills need to get more help for Josh". 

Then we shipped a 100 catch, 1,400 yard a year guy out of town, and Gabe Davis -- who, say what you want about him, scored a lot of touchdowns for this team -- is gone.

Now, when I mention double-dipping in rounds 1 and 2 at WR, I get a lot of pushback and people saying "The Bills have other needs!".

But...if the Bills needed to add a receiver BEFORE Diggs and Davis left town, they DAMNED sure need to add TWO of them now!

I understand the arguments for improving the defense, but to me, nothing trumps surrounding our franchise QB with as much weaponry as possible in terms of importance. Let's end this "Bills don't give Allen enough help" narrative once and for all. 

I think a trade back double dip is very possible while adding another 3rd or 4th 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Drafting two WR with first three picks is perfectly fine with me. Or using one of the picks to aquire a guy in a trade is fine as well. 

Get an edge with the other pick and a safety early on day 3. 

I'd be fine if they traded multiple day 3 picks to get back into the third round. 

There is probably only 4-5 roster spots up for grabs at this point. 6 if you add another punter.  2 WR, Edge, S, CB  and P. You can trade all the other picks away becuase they either aren't making the team or you can find a LB or CB in UDFA to play Teams. 

[stinky finger]

57 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

Been saying this since before the Diggs trade, now I'm screaming it. 

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Agreed.

Even BEFORE Diggs left town, everyone in the world said "the Bills need to get more help for Josh". 

Then we shipped a 100 catch, 1,400 yard a year guy out of town, and Gabe Davis -- who, say what you want about him, scored a lot of touchdowns for this team -- is gone.

Now, when I mention double-dipping in rounds 1 and 2 at WR, I get a lot of pushback and people saying "The Bills have other needs!".

But...if the Bills needed to add a receiver BEFORE Diggs and Davis left town, they DAMNED sure need to add TWO of them now!

I understand the arguments for improving the defense, but to me, nothing trumps surrounding our franchise QB with as much weaponry as possible in terms of importance. Let's end this "Bills don't give Allen enough help" narrative once and for all. 

I'm good with us grabbing a couple of WR's in the draft between the 1st and early 4th. Still, I think many people see us having added Samuel (who was almost as productive as Gabe was for us in the Commanders offense with Sam Howell as his QB) and think that is a help. They also think the other guys were taking away targets from Shakir, who proved to be a solid and sure-handed weapon down the stretch. 

[Ballhawk]

Quote

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

He knows about some super-duper secret appeal regarding the compensation pick? (Lol)

[Brandon]

I certainly wouldn't argue against it.  They looked like a team that needed a 1st or 2nd round investment at WR even before the season ended.  Now,  they've lost both Davis and Diggs.  Curtis Samuel gives them a few more options,  but I'd still fully support WR picks at 28 and 60.  Aside from safety,  I think the defensive needs align more with depth,  anyway,  at least for 2024,  and they have plenty of 4th and 5th round picks to address those.  

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, H2o said:

I'm good with us grabbing a couple of WR's in the draft between the 1st and early 4th. Still, I think many people see us having added Samuel (who was almost as productive as Gabe was for us in the Commanders offense with Sam Howell as his QB) and think that is a help. They also think the other guys were taking away targets from Shakir, who proved to be a solid and sure-handed weapon down the stretch. 

I like Shakir and Samuel a lot. Both of them. Probably more than most. 

But even so, the Bills WR corps is lacking a few skillsets right now.

Samuel is a guy who can play flanker, slot, and give you some gadget and jet sweep stuff or line up in the backfield. Shakir is a guy who has some degree of inside/outside versatility, but is better in the slot. Both offer good RAC.

The Bills lack a legitimate, viable X receiver (I refuse to count on much offensively from Mack Hollins). They lack size. They lack a red zone threat. They lack someone who is gonna put a bit of fear into the hearts of defenses. They lack a guy that needs to be gameplanned for or who will ever draw extra attention from defenses.

I like Shakir and Samuel (and Kincaid and Knox and Cook), but the Bills need more. They need at least two more legit dudes out there. 

[4merper4mer]

50 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

the guy on the left?

 

Nope

 

 

Wait.  Maybe he just went bald.  Might be him.

Edited April 19 by 4merper4mer

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

I like Shakir and Samuel a lot. Both of them. Probably more than most. 

But even so, the Bills WR corps is lacking a few skillsets right now.

Samuel is a guy who can play flanker, slot, and give you some gadget and jet sweep stuff or line up in the backfield. Shakir is a guy who has some degree of inside/outside versatility, but is better in the slot. Both offer good RAC.

The Bills lack a legitimate, viable X receiver (I refuse to count on much offensively from Mack Hollins). They lack size. They lack a red zone threat. They lack someone who is gonna put a bit of fear into the hearts of defenses. They lack a guy that needs to be gameplanned for or who will ever draw extra attention from defenses.

I like Shakir and Samuel (and Kincaid and Knox and Cook), but the Bills need more. They need at least two more legit dudes out there. 

I agree. I'd be good with jumping up for one of the "big 3" in MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze and letting it ride. Or I'd be good with taking Legette and then finding a way to get another guy like Tez Walker, or Malachi Corley, or Ja'Lynn Polk, or Javon Baker. Either way, they have an opportunity to at least take a shot at doing the right thing by Josh this year. One can only hope Beane has the cajones to tell McDermott to go sit in the corner while he looks out for the Franchise QB. 

[Mr. Wonderful]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

the guy on the left?

 

 

Jim Haslett?

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

I agree. I'd be good with jumping up for one of the "big 3" in MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze and letting it ride. Or I'd be good with taking Legette and then finding a way to get another guy like Tez Walker, or Malachi Corley, or Ja'Lynn Polk, or Javon Baker. Either way, they have an opportunity to at least take a shot at doing the right thing by Josh this year. One can only hope Beane has the cajones to tell McDermott to go sit in the corner while he looks out for the Franchise QB. 

If you look at the draft trade charts, our entire draft is worth less than the Chargers pick at 5 (I think that the first four picks will be QBs after the Vikings trade up to 4). Even if you add in that pick that the Bills got for Diggs, it's not enough. It would have to be 2024 and 2025 firsts, 2024 2nd and that high second in 2025 plus other picks. And all that for a guy that could bust. That's a high price for a non-QB.

[SoonerBillsFan]

33 minutes ago, Logic said:

Agreed.

Even BEFORE Diggs left town, everyone in the world said "the Bills need to get more help for Josh". 

Then we shipped a 100 catch, 1,400 yard a year guy out of town, and Gabe Davis -- who, say what you want about him, scored a lot of touchdowns for this team -- is gone.

Now, when I mention double-dipping in rounds 1 and 2 at WR, I get a lot of pushback and people saying "The Bills have other needs!".

But...if the Bills needed to add a receiver BEFORE Diggs and Davis left town, they DAMNED sure need to add TWO of them now!

I understand the arguments for improving the defense, but to me, nothing trumps surrounding our franchise QB with as much weaponry as possible in terms of importance. Let's end this "Bills don't give Allen enough help" narrative once and for all. 

Kincaid, Samuel, and Shakir will all be better which is a dang solid core. Just add a guy in the draft and move on.

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Kincaid, Samuel, and Shakir will all be better which is a dang solid core. Just add a guy two guys in the draft and move on.

My preferred correction.

[H2o]

Just now, Low Positive said:

If you look at the draft trade charts, our entire draft is worth less than the Chargers pick at 5 (I think that the first four picks will be QBs after the Vikings trade up to 4). Even if you add in that pick that the Bills got for Diggs, it's not enough. It would have to be 2024 and 2025 firsts, 2024 2nd and that high second in 2025 plus other picks. And all that for a guy that could bust. That's a high price for a non-QB.

Just depends on how the board falls. If people start jumping for QB's and people address needs other than taking a WR, then we might be able to sneak a guy between 9-12. I'd trade #28, #60, and next year's 1st for one of MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. You're also taking a chance staying put and hoping the guy you draft works out. But if we don't, I'm good with Legette @ #28 and going after one of the other guys aforementioned. 

 

 

[Virgil]

Can someone please walk me through this desire two use to high picks on a wide receiver?  We currently have 4 pass catchers we are comfortable with, and opportunities at other positions.  I am fully on board with receiver in the first two rounds, but only the one.  Who is this second receiver going to replace on the field.   1st rounder, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. You could also argue Shorter gets a crack.  
 

I’d much rather see us try to get someone that can push for the FS, RG, HB2, and DL depth than a 6th pass catcher 

Edited April 20 by Virgil

[mrags]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

the guy on the left?

 

Well, we sure know it’s not the guy in the middle 

[SoonerBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, Logic said:

My preferred correction.

1st and 4th if so.  Beane isn't going to pick a wr in rounds 1 and 2.  He has faith with his current roster' but...he will add a WR at some point

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Can someone please walk me through this desire to use to high picks on a wide receiver?  We currently have 4 pass catchers we are comfortable with, and opportunities at other positions.  I am fully on board with receiver in the first two rounds, but only the one.  Who is this second receiver going to replace on the field.   1st rounder, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. You could also argue Shorter gets a crack.  
 

I’d much rather see us try to get someone that can push for the FS, RG, HB2, and DL depth than a 6th pass catcher 

Agreed, 1 is all we need.  

[Logic]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

1st and 4th if so.  Beane isn't going to pick a wr in rounds 1 and 2.  He has faith with his current roster' but...he will add a WR at some point

I genuinely don't know how people can make statements like this with so much confidence.

It's the same confidence I heard when people insisted that Stefon Diggs wouldn't be getting traded away this offseason.

No one knows squat.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I have assumed that was the plan all along. We really don’t need much but we absolutely need to hit on playmakers at WR. Give yourself chances

[OldTimer1960]

45 minutes ago, H2o said:

I'm good with us grabbing a couple of WR's in the draft between the 1st and early 4th. Still, I think many people see us having added Samuel (who was almost as productive as Gabe was for us in the Commanders offense with Sam Howell as his QB) and think that is a help. They also think the other guys were taking away targets from Shakir, who proved to be a solid and sure-handed weapon down the stretch. 

I don’t think anyone believes that the Bills are all set at WR.  To me, they need 2, but that won’t solve all of their problems by itself.  So, I feel a modest down year coming.  Get at least 1 receiver, maybe 2 if they are BPA in 1st and 2nd, but don’t expect that will solve the problems of being paper thin on defense this year.

 

The thing I want to avoid is trading next year’s early picks.  They are set up well to get competitive again next year - don’t give those picks away.

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

This, obviously, makes all the sense in the world unless Beane has inside knowledge of WR’s shaking free post 6/1 with Tre’s $$ freeing up.

 

Its maddening to see some of our social media savvy Bills commentators pretend like this shouldn’t be the case. 
 

We all thought we needed an early round investment WR before we traded Diggs.  Now we’ve lost both our outside guys and unless one believes Shakir can consistently win out there, are left with literally Mack Hollins and Justin Shorter.. ideally our WR5 and WR6. 
 

We need two legitimate outside WR’s.. or at least guys who can win outside.. to just have an offense that makes any sense. 
 

People seem to forget about Samuel for some reason. The Bills absolutely need one #1 type boundary receiver

[RyanC883]

34 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Can someone please walk me through this desire to use to high picks on a wide receiver?  We currently have 4 pass catchers we are comfortable with, and opportunities at other positions.  I am fully on board with receiver in the first two rounds, but only the one.  Who is this second receiver going to replace on the field.   1st rounder, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. You could also argue Shorter gets a crack.  
 

I’d much rather see us try to get someone that can push for the FS, RG, HB2, and DL depth than a 6th pass catcher 

 

The thinking is that we do not have WRs who have the ability to win in the playoffs.  There is no one that strikes fear into a DC.  That said, a rookie may not either, but one of the top 3 are likely to come onboard and be producing by the season's end/playoffs, and, since WR is a position where salary's are exploding, it makes sense to get 1 in the 1st and another on a rookie deal.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

54 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Kincaid, Samuel, and Shakir will all be better which is a dang solid core. Just add a guy in the draft and move on.

Problem with that is you're one injury away from that saying Knox, Samuel and Shakir or Kincaid, Shakir and Hollins which doesn't sound as impressive. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Been saying it.  Find a way to come away with 2 of the top 6-8 receivers in this draft.  Plus another one later and a few more UDFAs.

 

I don't think the Bills will likely be able to roster 3 WR's taken in the draft, they usually only roster 5 at most 6 WR's. Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are likely locks to make the roster, Shorter is also there as an option. So if they draft WR's at picks 28 and 60 there will be 5 WR's already a lock to make the roster with Shorter there as a WR6. Seems like this team which has a lack of depth in other areas of the roster is going to not burn a mid-round or even later round pick on a WR after taking two up high just to have competition for Shorter at WR6. 

 

They will always however add in some UDFA's and a "kick the tires" vet at WR like Andy Isabella last year to compete for PS spots and maybe give Shorter some competition. But spending 3 picks at WR is not likely in my opinion. I think a "double dip" at picks 28 and 60 is unlikely unless the value at pick 60 is insane. I think more "realistically" they are likely to go WR at pick 28 or a smaller trade up to the 26-24 range and then address another need at pick 60 (likely D-line or safety) and then go WR again somewhere between picks 128-163 for increased depth and development.  

[H2o]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think anyone believes that the Bills are all set at WR.  To me, they need 2, but that won’t solve all of their problems by itself.  So, I feel a modest down year coming.  Get at least 1 receiver, maybe 2 if they are BPA in 1st and 2nd, but don’t expect that will solve the problems of being paper thin on defense this year.

 

The thing I want to avoid is trading next year’s early picks.  They are set up well to get competitive again next year - don’t give those picks away.

I'm not expecting a down year of any kind. The offseason talk right now is the same exact offseason talk we heard last year. "Two teams in our own division had passed us, this, that, blah, blah, blah," all by the sports network bobbleheads. We're getting Milano back, and one would hope we can have some better fortune on the injury front this year. Also, the young guys like Torrence, Bernard, Williams, and even Spencer Brown should all be better. One would hope Epenesa's numbers increase with more playing time. 

 

I also don't see us as being "paper thin" on defense either. We are transitioning a bit in our DB group, going younger at Safety and cutting Tre. We re-signed Rapp and brought in Mike Edwards at Safety. We let Dodson walk. We added some different, but no worse by any means, depth at DT. We let Floyd walk after a single season, but he faded big time down the stretch after the 2nd Jets game in mid-November. We probably need to add a DE between the 1st and 4th. I know there are guys that I like which fall into that range. I'm sure they have their board set up as well. We probably need to add another depth Safety and another depth CB (maybe 2), both positions which McD and Beane seem to have an eye for. Maybe another depth LB or two depending on what they want the roster to look like. We have 10 picks. If we draft 1 DE, 1 Safety, 2 CB, and 1 LB that's 5/10. Get 2 WR's and that's 7/10. The other 3/10 just a mix and match of whatever.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

50 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Can someone please walk me through this desire to use to high picks on a wide receiver?  We currently have 4 pass catchers we are comfortable with, and opportunities at other positions.  I am fully on board with receiver in the first two rounds, but only the one.  Who is this second receiver going to replace on the field.   1st rounder, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. You could also argue Shorter gets a crack.  
 

I’d much rather see us try to get someone that can push for the FS, RG, HB2, and DL depth than a 6th pass catcher 

Shakir is a speed slot, Samuel is not a pure outside WR, we don't have a bona fide X or Z. One pick X, one pick Z. Pretty simple. Rookie 1 starts at X over Hollins & Shorter, Rookie 2 shares snaps at Z with Samuel and some Shakir. Unless they think they can get a cheap-ish vet plug in at either X or Z post June 1 🤷‍♂️

11 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I don't think the Bills will likely be able to roster 3 WR's taken in the draft, they usually only roster 5 at most 6 WR's. Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are likely locks to make the roster, Shorter is also there as an option. So if they draft WR's at picks 28 and 60 there will be 5 WR's already a lock to make the roster with Shorter there as a WR6. Seems like this team which has a lack of depth in other areas of the roster is going to not burn a mid-round or even later round pick on a WR after taking two up high just to have competition for Shorter at WR6. 

 

They will always however add in some UDFA's and a "kick the tires" vet at WR like Andy Isabella last year to compete for PS spots and maybe give Shorter some competition. But spending 3 picks at WR is not likely in my opinion. I think a "double dip" at picks 28 and 60 is unlikely unless the value at pick 60 is insane. I think more "realistically" they are likely to go WR at pick 28 or a smaller trade up to the 26-24 range and then address another need at pick 60 (likely D-line or safety) and then go WR again somewhere between picks 128-163 for increased depth and development.  

Shorter should have been a priority FA last year not a 5th round pick. He's eminently replaceable, good practice squad option. Hollins is here for special teams unless Shorter beats him out

[yall]

Get me two wide receivers in the first three rounds, and McDermott can have defense for the rest of the draft.

[SoonerBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Problem with that is you're one injury away from that saying Knox, Samuel and Shakir or Kincaid, Shakir and Hollins which doesn't sound as impressive. 

I get where you are coming from, but I don't see Beane drafting WR's in both the 1stand second rounds. 1st and 4th, absolutely. 

 

And all teams have injury issues it just happens.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I get where you are coming from, but I don't see Beane drafting WR's in both the 1stand second rounds. 1st and 4th, absolutely. 

 

And all teams have injury issues it just happens.

Oh I'm not advocating for WR in rounds 1 and 2 and unless WRs were at the top of his board when he picks...he likely won't.  I actually think it's more likely he ends up WR in rounds 2 and 5 than both 1 and 2.

 

[OldTimer1960]

31 minutes ago, H2o said:

I'm not expecting a down year of any kind. The offseason talk right now is the same exact offseason talk we heard last year. "Two teams in our own division had passed us, this, that, blah, blah, blah," all by the sports network bobbleheads. We're getting Milano back, and one would hope we can have some better fortune on the injury front this year. Also, the young guys like Torrence, Bernard, Williams, and even Spencer Brown should all be better. One would hope Epenesa's numbers increase with more playing time. 

 

I also don't see us as being "paper thin" on defense either. We are transitioning a bit in our DB group, going younger at Safety and cutting Tre. We re-signed Rapp and brought in Mike Edwards at Safety. We let Dodson walk. We added some different, but no worse by any means, depth at DT. We let Floyd walk after a single season, but he faded big time down the stretch after the 2nd Jets game in mid-November. We probably need to add a DE between the 1st and 4th. I know there are guys that I like which fall into that range. I'm sure they have their board set up as well. We probably need to add another depth Safety and another depth CB (maybe 2), both positions which McD and Beane seem to have an eye for. Maybe another depth LB or two depending on what they want the roster to look like. We have 10 picks. If we draft 1 DE, 1 Safety, 2 CB, and 1 LB that's 5/10. Get 2 WR's and that's 7/10. The other 3/10 just a mix and match of whatever.

Ok - you could be right.  I just look and see zero depth at safety and iffy starters there.  I see only Elam who has shown very little as depth at corner.  I think anything they get from Miller at DE is a bonus and, while I like Epenesa, I don’t think he and Rousseau form a particularly potent pass rush pair.  There really is no depth behind Oliver either.  I see a good pass rusher as a big need.  A corner to start in case Benford or Douglas get hurt as a big need - and that guy will likely have to start next year as Douglas ages out.  I guess they can live with Rapp and Edwards, but I don’t think they are ideal.

 

Fixes to those problems aren’t all coming in this draft.  Now, if the offense adds a couple of dynamic receivers, maybe they can out score everyone, but I don’t think that is the way to a championship.

 

I certainly hope you’re right.