Dane Bruglers 7 Round Mock

[FLFan]

https://theathletic.com/5418352/2024/04/17/nfl-mock-draft-2024-full-seven-rounds-dane-brugler/?source=user_shared_article

 

I was not sure where else to post this but mods please merge if appropriate.

 

For those of you with Athletic access, Brugler’s 7 round mock draft posted today.  Linked above. If you are not familiar with him, he publishes  an excellent compendium and ranking of NFL draft prospects each year that can also be found on the Athletic. He has the Bills trading up with Jacksonville to 17 using their first this year, two fourths, and a second next year to take Brian Thomas.  He has us with Cole Bishop, Safety in the second, and Javon Baker, WR in the third.  This seems like an excellent result to me, but certainly interested in what the more knowledgeable draft gurus around here think.
 

 I would be thrilled with Thomas in particular. Bishop seems more of a box safety but does have some cover skills as well.  Baker is a potential replacement to Gabe’s role on this team, but with more ability to get open in intermediate routes.  Good YAC ability as well. 

 

 

Edited April 17 by FLFan

[MikePJ76]

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

 

 

The positional break down looks right but I'd rather see a CB than a safety.    Using a second round pick on a safety in a mediocre safety draft would not be ideal from the positional standpoint.    You can draft and develop safeties from all over the board and they are a dime a dozen in free agency.   Be pretty dumb to take an "ok" prospect safety at 60, IMO.   Two outside WR and two OL would be very logical for this draft class.

[Mat68]

I would rather flip edge and safety.  Go edge at 60 and safety at 163.  I do not see much difference in the safety prospects as a whole to draft one at 60.  Im not depending on Von to bounce back at his age.  I think you need to add guy ready for snaps immediately.  Edwards and Rapp is an ok pairing. Im not sure there is a safety in the class better than either.  Not looking for elite traits for the position the need to invest a day 2 pick seems unnecessary.    

[BuffAlone]

I'd be thrilled with Thomas And Baker! But I agree,maybe DL instead of S @60. Or even a cb 

[MikePJ76]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

I would rather flip edge and safety.  Go edge at 60 and safety at 163.  I do not see much difference in the safety prospects as a whole to draft one at 60.  Im not depending on Von to bounce back at his age.  I think you need to add guy ready for snaps immediately.  Edwards and Rapp is an ok pairing. Im not sure there is a safety in the class better than either.  Not looking for elite traits for the position the need to invest a day 2 pick seems unnecessary.    

The next two edge players picked in his mock after The Bills pick at 60

 

67 Commanders Adisa Isaac Edge Penn State

 

75 Bears Chris Braswell Edge Alabama

 

FWIW he has the ravens doing this at 62

 

62 Ravens Xavier Legette WR South Carolina

[corta765]

32 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

This would be a very ideal draft to me

[boyst]

13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The positional break down looks right but I'd rather see a CB than a safety.    Using a second round pick on a safety in a mediocre safety draft would not be ideal from the positional standpoint.    You can draft and develop safeties from all over the board and they are a dime a dozen in free agency.   Be pretty dumb to take an "ok" prospect safety at 60, IMO.   Two outside WR and two OL would be very logical for this draft class.

this also takes out the belief that justin simmons is an option, which i think he is post june 1

[DrDawkinstein]

I'd take it. Of course, now that it has been mocked means it 100% will not happen.

[Logic]

Dane Brugler is one of the best.

His yearly "Beast" Draft guide is worth the $1.99 a month Athletic subscription all by itself. Absolutely indispensible.

[KDIGGZ]

Javon Baker in round 4 would be an absolute steal. I doubt he's still available. He could be a potential WR1 type eventually

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

The next two edge players picked in his mock after The Bills pick at 60

 

67 Commanders Adisa Isaac Edge Penn State

 

75 Bears Chris Braswell Edge Alabama

 

FWIW he has the ravens doing this at 62

 

62 Ravens Xavier Legette WR South Carolina

I would take Isaac or Braswell at 60 over Bishop.  I think either guy can step into a full rotation at edge without a drop off.  Possible for either to take the other edge spot of

Von doesnt perform. 

[gonzo1105]

Bishop is my favorite safety in the draft. Might not be a great schematic fit as it stands now but a hell of a player. I actually like this draft if it were to play out this way 

[billsfan_34]

26 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I would rather flip edge and safety.  Go edge at 60 and safety at 163.  I do not see much difference in the safety prospects as a whole to draft one at 60.  Im not depending on Von to bounce back at his age.  I think you need to add guy ready for snaps immediately.  Edwards and Rapp is an ok pairing. Im not sure there is a safety in the class better than either.  Not looking for elite traits for the position the need to invest a day 2 pick seems unnecessary.    

Pressure on the QB always makes the defensive backfield better 

[mannc]

33 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Pressure on the QB always makes the defensive backfield better 

Except in the playoffs, where offensive holding is legal…

[schoolhouserock]

Coming away with both Thomas Jr and Baker would be a fantastic result for the Bills.

[DrDawkinstein]

18 minutes ago, mannc said:

Except in the playoffs, where offensive holding is legal…

 

But so is Defensive Holding so it all evens out.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

A solid sensible mock, I do however think that pick 60 is going to be defensive line and not safety. I think they have mentioned in the past that they don’t necessarily look for safeties with high athletic profiles but rather players who are smart and can execute the scheme.
 

Poyer and Hyde were about a 5 on the RAS which is a below average score. Even Hamlin, Edwards and Rapp all are around 7 on the RAS which is fairly average to slightly above average. 

 

I think you are likely to see a safety taken in the 128-163 range as you can probably find a less athletic smart safety to add depth and develop to take over for Edwards in 2025.

 

If I also had to nitpick think that they likely aren’t going twice on offensive line. They generally carry 9 offensive linemen maybe 10 max. I think the top 7 are locks with the starting 5 plus Van Denmark and Anderson likely to make the roster as reserves. I also think between Collins and Clapp they have one of those two make the roster. Which assuming Collins makes the roster puts you at 8 so one more prospect added to the back end depth seems more realistic. I think you are also going to see a corner drafted in somewhere likely at pick 204 if this draft plays out that way. 

[Special K]

Not familiar with Dane Bruglers, but those have been my first two picks in most of the mocks that I have done.👍

Edited April 17 by Special K

[billsfan89]

59 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Pressure on the QB always makes the defensive backfield better 

I also trust McD to find a safety in rounds 4-5 this edge class is not bad but it’s not very deep either

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The positional break down looks right but I'd rather see a CB than a safety.    Using a second round pick on a safety in a mediocre safety draft would not be ideal from the positional standpoint.    You can draft and develop safeties from all over the board and they are a dime a dozen in free agency.   Be pretty dumb to take an "ok" prospect safety at 60, IMO.   Two outside WR and two OL would be very logical for this draft class.

 

What do you think of the suggested trade up, though (swap 1sts, Bills give up a 2nd next year and 2 4th round picks this draft)

[BeastMaster]

Just an awful move if the Bills trade up for not just a kid that isn't ready to be a major contributor next season, but also a player that could very well last up until their pick.

 

There's absolutely no need to go up to 17 for this kid. He's not worth the trade up.

 

If you are gonna do a trade up for BTJ, then you might as well go all in and trade up for one of the top three.

 

I would stand pat and draft Worthy at 28 and hope for a trade back up in the second for Legette or Coleman to pair with Worthy

[RobbRiddick]

I love the idea of going WR in round 1 and again in round 4. If possible I'd like Beane to package some picks and get into the 3rd round for another recover instead of waiting until rd 4. I'm also willing to bet if this happens the 2nd WR selected will end up having a better career than the rd 1 guy.

[turbo044]

31 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Just an awful move if the Bills trade up for not just a kid that isn't ready to be a major contributor next season, but also a player that could very well last up until their pick.

 

There's absolutely no need to go up to 17 for this kid. He's not worth the trade up.

 

If you are gonna do a trade up for BTJ, then you might as well go all in and trade up for one of the top three.

 

I would stand pat and draft Worthy at 28 and hope for a trade back up in the second for Legette or Coleman to pair with Worthy

I understand your rationale, but, I don't think Worthy is anywhere close to the WR as Thomas II,  Picking him at 28 is a severe overdraft.  I would much rather draft Ladd at 28 and trade up to the middle 2nd to grab Legette, Franklin, Worthy or Coleman

[Ga boy]

Forget about moving up.  Just nab Verse or Latu at 28.  Then get either Legette or Coleman in the 2nd.  I really think Coleman would be a beast with JA17 throwing him the tater 🥔. 

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Ga boy said:

Forget about moving up.  Just nab Verse or Latu at 28.  Then get either Legette or Coleman in the 2nd.  I really think Coleman would be a beast with JA17 throwing him the tater 🥔. 

Maybe I have my head in the sand on this one , but where is the Verse dropping into the 20s coming from. I think he’s DE #1 over Turner and I think he’s going to Atlanta or Minnesota imo. I saw Schrager mock him to Miami not that I believe what Schrager says but I’m seeing it more and more and I’m like what? 

[MikePJ76]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Maybe I have my head in the sand on this one , but where is the Verse dropping into the 20s coming from. I think he’s DE #1 over Turner and I think he’s going to Atlanta or Minnesota imo. I saw Schrager mock him to Miami not that I believe what Schrager says but I’m seeing it more and more and I’m like what? 

Brugler has him at 19

 

19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Since Sean McVay became head coach, the Rams have picked in the top 60 six times — all six have been offensive players. But it feels like that will change this year with the Rams back in the first round and needing so many upgrades on defense, including at edge rusher. Verse brings all-day power and disruption with a motor that doesn’t quit.

[BILLSINATL]

A lot of solid safety targets in Day 2. Wish we had gotten the 3rd round comp pick that would have been ideal to select a Safety with. 

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

Brugler has him at 19

 

19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Since Sean McVay became head coach, the Rams have picked in the top 60 six times — all six have been offensive players. But it feels like that will change this year with the Rams back in the first round and needing so many upgrades on defense, including at edge rusher. Verse brings all-day power and disruption with a motor that doesn’t quit.

I guess I just don’t see it. There are 3 DEs in this draft who can be immediate difference makers and 1 of them has a neck fusion and could tumble. Just can’t see Verse or Turner dropping out of the top 15 

[warrior9]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Except in the playoffs, where offensive holding is legal…

Just for 1 team. 

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Javon Baker in round 4 would be an absolute steal. I doubt he's still available. He could be a potential WR1 type eventually

100% agree here.. he is an athletic freak. With Josh.. I dont doubt he would be a super star. I just dont know much about his "instincts" or "football IQ"

[mannc]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

Just for 1 team. 

 

Good point

[julian]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Javon Baker in round 4 would be an absolute steal. I doubt he's still available. He could be a potential WR1 type eventually

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

Edited April 17 by julian

[warrior9]

6 minutes ago, julian said:

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

 

So That's why in my reply to him I mentioned his instincts and football IQ. 

 

I have to wonder if his positioning, route running, etc leaves a lot to be desired. I'll watch some film and get back to you. I'm interested as well. 

[julian]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

 

So That's why in my reply to him I mentioned his instincts and football IQ. 

 

I have to wonder if his positioning, route running, etc leaves a lot to be desired. I'll watch some film and get back to you. I'm interested as well. 

Yeah I’d appreciate that, he seems like the one WR prospect where a lot of the narrative isn’t jiving with his draft position projections.

[DCOrange]

4 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

I keep going back and forth on whether I think the optimal move is to trade up, trade WAY up, or stand pat. This feels like a really good outcome though. Two of my favorite WR prospects in the draft and a good safety prospect. I'll differ to others on how the other Day 3 picks are but if we came out of the draft with Brian Thomas and Javon Baker, I would be very pleased.

21 minutes ago, julian said:

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

Think there's been some rumors that he struggles to learn the playbook, but beyond that, not really sure. It seems like everyone in the draft community says he's underrated but if everyone says it, is he really underrated?

[KDIGGZ]

34 minutes ago, julian said:

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

Played at a smaller school and ran a "slow" 40 (4.54 I believe). He was cooking the corners he faced and that's all you can really do. They probably would have preferred to see him do it against the SEC guys like the guys from Texas etc

[BeastMaster]

1 hour ago, turbo044 said:

I understand your rationale, but, I don't think Worthy is anywhere close to the WR as Thomas II,  Picking him at 28 is a severe overdraft.  I would much rather draft Ladd at 28 and trade up to the middle 2nd to grab Legette, Franklin, Worthy or Coleman

 

Worthy has explosiveness that nobody else has in this draft, and he will be gone early second at best.

 

In a perfect world, we trade back and get Worthy and Coleman or Legette, but I'm fine taking him at 28.

 

If you want Thomas II as your guy, you are giving Josh Allen little to no help for next season because he's not ready to play against NFL defenses, and he may never be.

[No_Matter_What]

5 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

The next two edge players picked in his mock after The Bills pick at 60

 

67 Commanders Adisa Isaac Edge Penn State

 

75 Bears Chris Braswell Edge Alabama

 

FWIW he has the ravens doing this at 62

 

62 Ravens Xavier Legette WR South Carolina

Wait, so Legette is there at 60?

 

Then just pick him and call it a day. Thomas and Legette? Are you serious?

 

If both pan out, we are unstoppable for next 4 years and then we pay one and get comp pick for the other. If one pans out it's still great.

[Rico]

Cole Bishop? NO

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Safety in the 4th or 5th would be my preferred option and trying to land Justin Simmons after the draft