Randy Mueller - maybe only ~150 draftable players this year

[dave mcbride]

I thought this comment was interesting. The Bills have five picks before 150 and five after that threshold.

 

”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.”

 

https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/

Edited April 15 by dave mcbride

[Brandon]

I've heard that elsewhere in the last few weeks.  If true,  those later picks on day 3 are more worthless than usual for trade purposes.  

 

 

Edited April 15 by Brandon

[ddaryl]

and we have a plethora of 3rd day picks....  

we shall see.

[KDIGGZ]

6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I've heard that elsewhere in the last few weeks.  If true,  those later picks on day 3 are more worthless than usual for trade purposes.  

 

Trade them for next year. This year is a bust anyways. No receivers, new OL, no pass rush, no safeties, and Josh is busy golfing 

[The 9 Isles]

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

and we have a plethora of 3rd day picks....  

we shall see.

 

how Billsy

[GunnerBill]

I have said it about a couple of position groups.... this is a MUCH better draft class than last year through the first 120 or so players on the board. My top 100 finishes on the 3rd/4th borderline this year whereas it was late 4th last year. However, a lot of the guys after that are older prospects who have underachieved in college. I don't think 2023 was particularly strong late either tbh... but 2020-2022 were much deeper than this class. 

[Back2Buff]

No one knows, and anyone that claims is just a liar.

[boyst]

It is amazing because it's a coin.

 

On one side it is better for the team to draft players but this secures them to a contract. For the player this limits their earnings potential.

 

On the other side it is better for the team to fill their roster with UDFA's because they can bring in talented individuals who do not need to be paid the minimums guaranteed in the NFL Draft rounds but for the players they can often exceed the NFL Draft amount with bonuses and such.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

No one knows, and anyone that claims is just a liar.

 

Nobody knows how they will turn out. People can know how talented a pool of prospects it is compared to other years. 

[The Jokeman]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said it about a couple of position groups.... this is a MUCH better draft class than last year through the first 120 or so players on the board. My top 100 finishes on the 3rd/4th borderline this year whereas it was late 4th last year. However, a lot of the guys after that are older prospects who have underachieved in college. I don't think 2023 was particularly strong late either tbh... but 2020-2022 were much deeper than this class. 

Covid am sure played a big part as caused many of these kids to lose a year or two for development. That or some ended staying in school longer than usual and now considered to be "over aged". 

[Logic]

Of course the natural response will be "use the late picks to trade up!" and "trade them for picks next year!", and both of those may sound logical on their face, but...

The key thing to remember is that other teams are surely aware of the late talent drop-off, too, and that when it comes to draft day trades, it takes two to tango.

[Brand J]

I feel like this is roughly the same number every year. It doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things. There are UDFAs who go on to have a more meaningful career than a 1st rounder. 150 might have draftable grades, but of those some shouldn’t have even been drafted.

[MJS]

6th and 7th round players are a crap shoot in any draft anyway. It's up to the scouts to find and identify those diamonds in the rough. And if they don't work out, nobody cares because they were 6th and 7th rounders.

[PromoTheRobot]

Are we finally seeing the result of parents not letting their kids play football in their youth?

[Matt_In_NH]

I thought this was supposed to be the year with a heavy class due to the pandemic, people stayed in college longer and now they are done with their 5th year?    I have also heard NIL is making it easier for people to stay in.....

[KingBoots8]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Are we finally seeing the result of parents not letting their kids play football in their youth?

I think it’s more to do with the fact these kids were probably freshmen when COVID hit and it may have stunted their growth a bit, especially at some of the smaller schools 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think that 150 number is very fluid. Teams all grade different. There's a good chance the last 10-20 prospects are different from team to team. There will be guys on some boards that aren't on others due to difference of opinion, grading or scheme. 

 

While each team may struggle to get that 150, the pool of players viewed as draftable league wide is likely somewhat higher in total.

[Brandon]

10 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Are we finally seeing the result of parents not letting their kids play football in their youth?

 

Probably not.  There have always been bad drafts...the 2000 draft being one of the worst ever.   A few good players here and there,  but for the most part,  that thing was putrid. 

 

If we get three or four in a row,  then you have to wonder. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Brand J said:

I feel like this is roughly the same number every year. It doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things. There are UDFAs who go on to have a more meaningful career than a 1st rounder. 150 might have draftable grades, but of those some shouldn’t have even been drafted.

 

I think it varies a bit more than that. There are drafts that are great at the top, but not that deep. Drafts that are deep but lack elite talent and there are some drafts that are just strong or not strong throughout. It does vary. 

 

For example the class of 2009 produced six first team all pro selections and 56 pro bowl selections from the whole class. 2010 on the other hand produced 35 first team all pros and 133 pro bowl selections. 

[mannc]

This is utter nonsense.  Draftniks say this kind of crap every year…they absolutely love to s**t on every draft class.  It’s just like the people who have “only fifteen players with first-round grades” year after year, which just means their “scale” is broken…

[Sweats]

It doesn't matter where or when you pick, there's always diamonds in the rough in the later rounds......it's our FO's job to figure these out and make it happen.

 

 

[mannc]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nobody knows how they will turn out. People can know how talented a pool of prospects it is compared to other years. 

No, they can’t.  Not in advance.  Perhaps at certain position groups they have an idea, but not the class as a whole, especially when you’re talking about a bunch of day 3 guys.

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it varies a bit more than that. There are drafts that are great at the top, but not that deep. Drafts that are deep but lack elite talent and there are some drafts that are just strong or not strong throughout. It does vary. 

 

For example the class of 2009 produced six first team all pro selections and 56 pro bowl selections from the whole class. 2010 on the other hand produced 35 first team all pros and 133 pro bowl selections. 

I think that’s why you saw Beane trading out so much in the 6th round last year. I think his board had run dry and with other teams willing to offer next years picks he took them. Might do the same this year if his board dries up again 

[DCofNC]

That concludes it, send it all to NYG and get Nabers or Odunze and go golf for the weekend.

[Sweats]

Its a sad, sad day when a man's board dries up.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think that’s why you saw Beane trading out so much in the 6th round last year. I think his board had run dry and with other teams willing to offer next years picks he took them. Might do the same this year if his board dries up again 

 

Yea agreed. I said it at the time. Same as the year before his two trades down at the end of round 2. That said to me he was out of true second round grades and if he was gonna take a high 3rd rounder at the end of the second he may as well pick up a couple of day 3 picks in the process. 

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

No, they can’t.  Not in advance.  Perhaps at certain position groups they have an idea, but not the class as a whole, especially when you’re talking about a bunch of day 3 guys.

 

They can. It doesn't mean it always works out that way. Because some guys reach their potential and others don't. But you can still take a view as to the relative strength of a class. 

[Royale with Cheese]

24 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

That concludes it, send it all to NYG and get Nabers or Odunze and go golf for the weekend.

 

That's the way I am feeling too.  I think Odunze is more of their flavor since he's a contested catch monster.  

[julian]

People who invest time and energy of course want to believe it’s possible to predict or make accurate a conclusions about players or the draft as a whole, and in some ways they can. If one is using the same grading system year after year then they can say this class of players is stronger or weaker compared to previous class of prospects.

 

 At the end of the day, they don’t know any more about where a prospect’s career will end up than my neighbour, and my neighbour’s a postman.

 

 I do respect the work and effort people put into knowing as much as they do about these prospects, it’s great entertainment and fun to have the breakdowns of various players and try to pinpoint who your team may or should want to target.

[pennstate10]

I’m not debating the number of draftable players, but the Covid rationale doesn’t make any sense. If players stayed extra years since 2020, that wouldn’t decrease the pool available in 2024. 
 

I think a better explanation is that NIL now allows the best players to get paid 6-7 figures to stay in school. 

[DrDawkinstein]

I feel like we figured this out in real time in @Virgil's mock draft threads.

 

The board voted for a Trade Down out of 28 and it was not fun.

 

I'm now fully on board with packaging as many of those later round picks for moving UP in the 1st and 2nd rounds to get our guys.

[hondo in seattle]

The draft pool may be more shallow this year but solid starters will come out of every round. 

 

Good GMs and scouts will find them.  Hopefully Beane and his guys are looking at the right things.  

[DrDawkinstein]

 

1 minute ago, pennstate10 said:

I’m not debating the number of draftable players, but the Covid rationale doesn’t make any sense. If players stayed extra years since 2020, that wouldn’t decrease the pool available in 2024. 
 

I think a better explanation is that NIL now allows the best players to get paid 6-7 figures to stay in school. 

 

It didnt deplete the 2024 pool, but it stocked the 2022/2023 pools which is why those drafts had 300+ draftable guys, and now we are back to more of the norm with 150-200 draftable guys.

 

It's about how the classes look relative to each other.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

and we have a plethora of 3rd day picks....  

we shall see.

No wonder Beane was so annoyed we didn't get that 3rd round comp pick

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said it about a couple of position groups.... this is a MUCH better draft class than last year through the first 120 or so players on the board. My top 100 finishes on the 3rd/4th borderline this year whereas it was late 4th last year. However, a lot of the guys after that are older prospects who have underachieved in college. I don't think 2023 was particularly strong late either tbh... but 2020-2022 were much deeper than this class. 

ya after Williams pick last year, not 1 guy got a snap. Now it was a loaded Bills team and Alex Austin rd 7 , did get playing time in NE and looks like a really good developmental cb. Almost wish we had him over Elam 🤷‍♂️

 

There will always be guys who slip through the cracks as far as being NFL caliber day 3 and beyond, just less this year , but iur gm has a good track record of finding gems on day 3 

 

I'm sure a cpl 6s will be deal to move up or aquire capital for next year

Edited April 15 by JerseyBills

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

This is utter nonsense.  Draftniks say this kind of crap every year…they absolutely love to s**t on every draft class.  It’s just like the people who have “only fifteen players with first-round grades” year after year, which just means their “scale” is broken…

I get your point, sort of, but Mueller is not what I'd call a draftnik. He worked as an NFL personnel person / exec for 35 years, from Seattle (16 years) to NO to Miami to the Chargers.

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I feel like we figured this out in real time in @Virgil's mock draft threads.

 

The board voted for a Trade Down out of 28 and it was not fun.

 

I'm now fully on board with packaging as many of those later round picks for moving UP in the 1st and 2nd rounds to get our guys.

To play devils advocate why would teams want day 3 picks to move down if their aren’t draft able players

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

I think a better explanation is that NIL now allows the best players to get paid 6-7 figures to stay in school. 

This is probably the best explanation. 

 

The NIL machine is heating up and players are staying longer in college if they can make 2-4M per year

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

To play devils advocate why would teams want day 3 picks to move down if their aren’t draft able players

 

Oh, its absolutely easier said than done. But teams might have different priorities. Maybe a new regime just came in and they want to bring in a bunch of "their" guys. Or may even need to make additional picks just to fill out the roster. Not necessarily because there is going to be so much talent left in those rounds.

 

edit: For example, the Giants only have something like 5 or 6 picks in this draft. They need guys.

Edited April 15 by DrDawkinstein

[dave mcbride]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh, its absolutely easier said than done. But teams might have different priorities. Maybe a new regime just came in and they want to bring in a bunch of "their" guys. Or may even need to make additional picks just to fill out the roster. Not necessarily because there is going to be so much talent left in those rounds.

Exactly. Maybe Harbaugh has views on a bunch of big ten players that are different from the league consensus, for instance.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Exactly. Maybe Harbaugh has views on a bunch of big ten players that are different from the league consensus, for instance.

 

Right on. And he needs guys who will buy in or have already bought into his... "unique" style.