Bills Draft Needs - From the Athletic

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

We're gonna start 6 rookies? 

 We started 2 rookies last year (Kincaid and Torrence) and 4 2nd year players (Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and Benford).  Will we start 6 rookies?  I highly doubt it, but depending on how the draft goes I can easily see a rookie WR and a rookie S starting next season.

 

I do think we'll see other rookies, especially on the DL, get significant snaps.  That's the nature of building depth on a team currently over the cap. 

 

On a side note, someone mentioned earlier that drafting for needs while ignoring how the draft falls is a mistake.  I generally agree, especially if a really good player falls to you.  I did a few mock draft simulations and UGA C Van Pran fell a few times to us at 99.  If this happens in real life, the Bills should jump at the chance to grab their future starting center even with Morse and Bates on the roster.   

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

They don't get rid of Bass he just signed a massive extension for a kicker and would cost more to cut then to keep.

Didn't Diggs sign an extension as well? Not stopping some from wanting him jettisoned. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 We started 2 rookies last year (Kincaid and Torrence) and 4 2nd year players (Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and Benford).  Will we start 6 rookies?  I highly doubt it, but depending on how the draft goes I can easily see a rookie WR and a rookie S starting next season.

 

I do think we'll see other rookies, especially on the DL, get significant snaps.  That's the nature of building depth on a team currently over the cap. 

 

On a side note, someone mentioned earlier that drafting for needs while ignoring how the draft falls is a mistake.  I generally agree, especially if a really good player falls to you.  I did a few mock draft simulations and UGA C Van Pran fell a few times to us at 99.  If this happens in real life, the Bills should jump at the chance to grab their future starting center even with Morse and Bates on the roster.   

 

Especially with Bates being a "super sub" who can play all 5 positions and reasonably at least be a primary backup guard who can flex into a tackle spot in a pinch it wouldn't be bad to grab one of the top centers in the draft as it only builds the offensive line depth and gives the Bills a good future along the offensive line. I also wouldn't hate drafting a tackle to develop in round 5. 

[DCofNC]

So they need everything but a QB and Guard? Cool.

[Thrivefourfive]

Anyone have a feeling that of all the positions on a football team McDermott is most bothered by receivers? 

[GASabresIUFan]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

So they need everything but a QB and Guard? Cool.

Not exactly.  We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Miller is healthy.  That’s not exactly needing everything.

 

 

Edited February 7 by GASabresIUFan

[BringBackFergy]

Typical Joe Buscaglia analysis. He wants to squeeze 12 players out of 8 draft picks. Everyone says he’s an expert on the draft. Getting 12 guys from 8 picks would be f’ing magical. 

[RG Murdock]

Bills have an insane schedule next year. Basically playing ALL the best team in the NFL, many on the road. This list of needs looks insane for a team with SB aspirations!! And the hope is to fill these needs with rookies, and dumpster dive players on one year contracts? Good luck with that...  Plus Diggs looks like he wants to be a troublemaker. Next 5 months should be interesting.    

[RG Murdock]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Not exactly.  We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Millet is healthy.  That’s not exactly needing everything.

 

Bills need 24 players... Far from optimal. Most being replaced with rookies and NFL bottom feeder players happy with a one year contract. All on top of having the NFL's 2nd toughest schedule next year.. Beane better be Houdini.  

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, RG Murdock said:

Bills need 24 players... Far from optimal. Most being replaced with rookies and NFL bottom feeder players happy with a one year contract. All on top of having the NFL's 2nd toughest schedule next year.. Beane better be Houdini.  

Here is sort of the current depth chart: Possible Cap Casualties are underlined.  Players in italics are guys I think Beane will work with to lower their cap hits. 

 

OFFENSE

QB - Allen;  Backups - ZERO; Futures contract: Buechele

RB - Cook; Backups  - Hines (IR), Gilliam (FB); Futures contract: Evans

WR -  Diggs, Shakir; Backups - Shorter (IR), Harty; Futures: Isabella, Hamler, Shavers, Thompson 

TE - Kincaid; Backups - Knox; Futures: McKitty: Other: Davidson (IR)

Guards - McGovern, Torrence; Backup - Bates;  

Tackles - Brown, Dawkins; Backup - Doyle(IR), Van Denmark Futures: Anderson, Gouraige

Center - Morse; Backup - Bates

 

DEFENSE

Safety - Poyer; Backup - Hamlin; Futures: Williamson

Corners - Benford, Douglas, T Johnson; Backups - White(IR), Neal, Elam; Futures: K. Brown (PS), Ingram

Linebacker - Milano(IR), Benard; Backups - Williams, Spector

Edge - Miller, Rousseau; Backup- Jonathan

Tackle - Oliver; Backup - ZERO; Futures: Ankou, Cline

 

Specialists - Bass, Martin & Ferguson

 

That's a 51-man roster of contracted players.  Obviously, that's not close to what we'll see next fall, but it does give a pretty good feel for the roster situations. Clear areas on need: Backup QB, at least 5 players along the D line (Edge or tackle), one more LB, at least 2-3 more safeties, possibly a 3rd TE, 2-3 WRs, and another backup RB.  Overall, it looks like the needs are about 14-15 players. Starters are needed at WR, Safety, and DT.

 

 

Edited February 7 by GASabresIUFan

[gobills404]

13 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I really think Beane will try to move some players for draft picks in the offseason.  We have a lot of needs and not enough cap room to address them in free agency.  

So you think he’s gonna create even more needs that he has to fill with rookies and bottom of the barrel free agents? Fat chance.

12 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

WR in the 1st round is almost an absolute must

 

I will lose my lunch if we take a safety or DL in that spot

i recommend you eat a light lunch on draft day 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 Other: Starters are needed at WR, Safety, and DT.

 

 

I think you can add DE to that starter list with Von’s struggles…( with  Von as DE 3) …

Beane  needs to find a solution in FA for each of those 4 spots that can start at  the position if need be… perhaps they still end up with an upgrade at the  position in the draft if things fall the right way,,,

 

FA solutions could include ex players DQ , Floyd and even Rapp if the price is right … at least they won’t count against them  on the comp pick formula …. 
 

They need a cheap FA option at WR … haven’t really got any favourites as yet who would come cheap enough …

 

Edited February 7 by Aussie Joe

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

https://theathletic.com/5252981/2024/02/06/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-needs-holes-positions/

 

Primary Needs

1) 1, maybe 2 explosive receivers.  Need to replace Davis and could use a legit downfield threat.

 

2) Defensive End - Lawson, Floyd, and Epenesa are all FAs.  They think it will be a challenge to bring both Floyd and Epenesa back.  I don't think either will return.  Regardless, they suggest getting someone this draft to split time with Miller and takeover for him in 2025

 

3) Defensive Tackle - Jones, Settle, Ford, and Phillips are FAs, leaving only Oliver as a returning starter (or contributor for that matter).  They think a Day 2 or early day 3 draft pick will help fill the void.

 

4) Safety - They should have drafted someone last year to learn from Hyde and Poyer.  Could this be the place they spend some FA $?  Even if they sign someone, Hamlin is the only depth behind Poyer.  They need to draft someone.  I think they need to spend 2 draft picks on safeties. 

 

Secondary needs

1) Offensive Tackle - Brown & Dawkins are FAs after next season.  They need better depth here even with Van Denmark on the roster.

 

2) Center - Morse is an FA after next season as well.  He is also 32.  Time to draft his possible replacement.

 

3) RB - Beane likes to draft RBs.  Cook is all the team has right now.

 

Tertiary needs (need depth only)

1) Cornerback - Benford and Douglas are the starters.  Neal, Elam, Taron Johnson, and White are under contract for next season.  They like the idea of bringing back Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace as cheap FAs for added depth depending on what happens with White.  Also drafting someone late.

 

2) Linebacker - 4 LBs under contract.  They need a 5th LB and that can come from a Day 3 pick or getting an FA for special teams. 

 

3) Punter - Do they bring back Martin? They have to decide well before the draft.  The article suggests signing a priority UDFA getting him on the practice squad for 2024 and replacing Martin in 2025.  Why not just re-sign the Punt G-D? 

Why don’t they just write replace the team?

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Not in this order, but as of today if the Bills keep all 9 picks…

 

WR(2)

S(2)

LT(1)

OC(1)

DE(2)

DT(1)

 

Of course, FA could turn the list upside down. 

 

 

We have 10 picks with the compensatory.   The athletic makes the assertion we won’t restructure a bunch of guys and extend some players.

[Pete]

Extend Shnowman and Brown now

[NeverOutNick]

40 minutes ago, Pete said:

Extend Shnowman and Brown now

I’m happy that they both played well this year but I don't think I’d  extend either unless it was very team friendly. Dawkins is going to be 30, has some strength/conditioning issues and I would be surprised if his play didn’t start tapering off. Brown finally had a fully healthy season and was still not good in pass protection. We have Van Denmark who will get another off season of conditioning and who looks to be a future starter. Not saying either Dawkins or Brown don’t deserve extensions, I just think they may not bring back the return on investment and we may have cheaper better options for the future. I would definitely draft an OT in the mid to later rounds again as well since we seem to be doing a good job developing them.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

14 hours ago, RiotAct said:

man, a lot of those decisions (big contracts for Miller, Bass and Knox) are really coming home to roost now.

Plus Diggs bad deal which btw his extension is starting this coming yr and they already want him out. That's a horrible look for Beane. Also Beane has missed on several picks at the top of the draft that's coming home to roost as well. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

19 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Dugger is the guy I've been screaming for so far this off season. That said, he may end up out of our price range. Spotrac has his market valued at $16.5M a year on a 4 year $66M contract. I personally don't think he hits that, but I'd love for him to be here if it doesn't.

 

Some other names at Safety:

 

Geno Stone

Kameron Curl

Jordan Whitehead 

 

Most realistic IMO: Taylor Rapp being back

 

 

I think Jeremy Chinn would also be a great signing for the Bills on a reasonable deal. He's taylor made for this defense. I would like to see a combo of Stone and Chinn on this defense. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

18 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Very solid thoughts and ideas, but again it boils down to "we don't know what we don't know"

 

Right now, yes looks like a meager FA with the cap space. But when it's all said and done  they will make moves and open money for who they want.

 

As you say this draft is deep at WR, which is why I'm ok if they wait until round 2 to fill that spot with someone that fits well. I think we see them sign someone like Darnell Mooney. Not top level, but a guy that has had 1,000 hard season before and has had some issues since. Could be a bargain. And (not that they are players I advocate for) I still can't shake the feeling that guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Devin Duvernay will be on their radar as well. 

 

As far as moves they can make that would change our draft needs, there's still room for that as well especially with the round 4-7 picks.

Mooney only if he's cheap if his salary reaches past 6mil I'm out on that rather play a rookie in front of him for cheap let him work out his bumps threw out the season just like Rice in KC this last season. 

 

I would love Duvernay as a kick return / punt return spealist that plays the Deebo role on offense. Give him some handoffs, Wr screens & Jet Sweeps he's very dangerous doing those things and defenses have to account for him when he's on the field. I truly believe the Ravens didn't use Duvernay the right way and there's some hidden impact there with him. A 3mil a yr deal would be ideal for him. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

21 hours ago, boyst said:

i was blown away yesterday looking at what we could do if we could cut miller. 1 floyd. or rapp, lawson, jackson, sherfield, and dobson.

It's a little sad that I am actively hoping that he gets suspended, because that would wipe out his guarantees so we'd be free and clear.

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

We have 10 picks with the compensatory.   The athletic makes the assertion we won’t restructure a bunch of guys and extend some players.

 

 

We are underwater on Diggs for the next couple of years.  I think $31 million and $23 million dead cap hits in '24 and '25.

 

I am completely down with him being a Bill for a couple of more years, regardless of the drop off, because I believe he can still produce.  However, can we please just finally agree that the next/eventual new number 1 WR needs to be drafted in 2024, if for no other reason than to possibly help free up an aging Diggs?

 

I love Shakir and I like the potential in some of our WRs, but come on now...we need a #1 who can wear big boy pants this September.

 

 

 

 

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It's a little sad that I am actively hoping that he gets suspended, because that would wipe out his guarantees so we'd be free and clear.

you're not alone.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It's a little sad that I am actively hoping that he gets suspended, because that would wipe out his guarantees so we'd be free and clear.

It's not sad and trust me you're not alone. That contract is a collasal bust. The sooner we move on from this failed experiment the better.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Agree with the OP. Here is my list in order of importance

 

WR x 2( 1st and 3rd round)

DE

DT

S

Punter

Backup RB

Center

 

Obviously FA can change this list. For instance I bet they will find a 3 or 4 year veryeran safety to replace Hyde.  With 10 picks they should be able to revitalize the WR group, find a new punter, find a young backup RB maybe with a little size, and find some youth to add to the DL where we got old real quick.

Morse not retiring and Brown looking like a capable OT means they can really focus on WR and DL this year. 

 

 

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

We are underwater on Diggs for the next couple of years.  I think $31 million and $23 million dead cap hits in '24 and '25.

 

I am completely down with him being a Bill for a couple of more years, regardless of the drop off, because I believe he can still produce.  However, can we please just finally agree that the next/eventual new number 1 WR needs to be drafted in 2024, if for no other reason than to possibly help free up an aging Diggs?

 

I love Shakir and I like the potential in some of our WRs, but come on now...we need a #1 who can wear big boy pants this September.

 

 

 

 

100% agree. 

Diggs is still going to be great for another year or two. But this team needs a young star WR to help him now and replace him later.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It's not sad and trust me you're not alone. That contract is a collasal bust. The sooner we move on from this failed experiment the better.

Do I think it's possible we can get one more good season out of him? Yes. Would I rely on it from here on out? No.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Do I think it's possible we can get one more good season out of him? Yes. Would I rely on it from here on out? No.

If he was 30 and coming off his 2nd acl I'd say maybe but at 35 he's absolutely done. He'll be kept by McDermott.  He'll have 4-5 sacks and look like Epenesa.  And after year 3 we'll regret every penny we spent on him.  Burn that down Von....

[Alphadawg7]

Draft needs and priorities should NOT dictate draft order though.  For example, if at 28 there is a top prospect at a position we need such as S or DL or a reach at WR, take the better player.  I want WR early in the first as much as anyone, but I do NOT want to REACH and pass up a superior prospect at another major position of need either.  

 

This is a deep WR draft too, and if you look around the NFL many of the best WR's in the NFL now and in the past 20 years did not come from the first round of drafts.  Again, my preference would be a WR and I do think one worth taking will be there, however, if that is not the case then I don't want Beane to take a lesser prospect over a potential difference maker at another position we need to find starters in this draft for too.  

[Pete]

Joe Marino says extending Schnowman is a no brainer.  As does Cover 1.  Marino says extending Brown is a no brainer as well.  Great minds think alike

[The Jokeman]

On 2/6/2024 at 1:07 PM, mushypeaches said:

WR in the 1st round is almost an absolute must

 

I will lose my lunch if we take a safety or DL in that spot

You really feel good about Rousseau and Miller as your pass rushers next year? If this wasn't as strong year at WR I might say grab the WR in Round 1 yet with the depth I'm willing to wait assuming we lose AJE and Floyd.

[DCofNC]

On 2/6/2024 at 9:51 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

Not exactly.  We have 10/11 starters on offense returning and 9/11 on defense if Miller is healthy.  That’s not exactly needing everything.

 

 

I get that, the article makes it seem otherwise.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

I get that, the article makes it seem otherwise.

I can understand that.  The real issue is getting and keeping quality depth when you are in a bit of a cap crunch.

 

The Bills are likely to lose Floyd, Jones, and Epenesa up front.  Those are 3 key contributors even if 2/3 weren't "starters".  If Miller can't return to a reasonable form, the D Line, no matter what Beane does will be a huge question mark entering next season.    We also only have 4 DL on the roster in Rousseau, Miller, Oliver and Jonathan and we usually carry 9.

 

The other void area is Safety.  Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, but who knows what if anything either player has at this point.

 

Ultimately these are the two areas that Beane is going to have to throw his limited FA budget at.  Some help will certainly come from the draft, but Beane has to bring in some real experienced help if this team is going to succeed on defense next season.

 

Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about our other "needs".  We'll draft a WR to replace Davis. RB depth is easy to come by cheaply or with a late draft pick.  OLine depth will come from the draft and we have excellent depth at TE, LB and CB.  

Edited February 8 by GASabresIUFan

[Mark Vader]

On 2/6/2024 at 8:52 AM, balln said:

So…. Basically need everything 

Except quarterback. 

[Boatdrinks]

On 2/7/2024 at 2:11 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

If he was 30 and coming off his 2nd acl I'd say maybe but at 35 he's absolutely done. He'll be kept by McDermott.  He'll have 4-5 sacks and look like Epenesa.  And after year 3 we'll regret every penny we spent on him.  Burn that down Von....

Might be absolutely correct on Von’s performance. However, the Bills and McDermott  have no choice but to keep Miller unless he’s suspended by the NFL. He’s not a cut candidate until after the ‘24 season. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 2/7/2024 at 1:18 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Draft needs and priorities should NOT dictate draft order though.  For example, if at 28 there is a top prospect at a position we need such as S or DL or a reach at WR, take the better player.  I want WR early in the first as much as anyone, but I do NOT want to REACH and pass up a superior prospect at another major position of need either.  

 

This is a deep WR draft too, and if you look around the NFL many of the best WR's in the NFL now and in the past 20 years did not come from the first round of drafts.  Again, my preference would be a WR and I do think one worth taking will be there, however, if that is not the case then I don't want Beane to take a lesser prospect over a potential difference maker at another position we need to find starters in this draft for too.  

Then trade up for a WR. We are way past time giving Allen junk to work with outside of what Diggs WAS, and what Kincaid is. Shakir did come on, but he is a slot only who does deserve more play time. But we need a true outside threat and its past time to get one. Then get another 1-2 WR's in this draft that can contribute.  Allen can't keep trying to do it all on his own and God knows whats going on with Diggs.

[DCofNC]

6 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Except quarterback. 

Depends on who you talk to lol, there are so many people out there that think JA sucks.  Then there’s the real world, where he could be slightly better, but 30 other teams would take him.

[Beast]

Leonard Floyd had 9.5 sacks in his first 11 games and 1 in his last 8 games.

 

I would rather move on from him.

 

I agree about starting to look for a LT.Dawkins had a much better year in 2023 but my memory of him will be him being bull rushed into Allen and Josh not being able to hit Shakir in the endzone. In other words, he has been too inconsistent and will probably command a high salary. 

Edited February 9 by Beast

[balln]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Leonard Floyd had 9.5 sacks in his first 11 games and 1 in his last 8 games.

 

I would rather move on from him.

 

I agree about starting to look for a LT.Dawkins had a much better year in 2023 but my memory of him will be him being bull rushed into Allen and Josh not being able to hit Shakir in the endzone. In other words, he has been too inconsistent and will probably command a high salary. 

I hear that. But as usual. The nfl hits their off season “point of emphasis” in the first half. Penalties everywhere. The masses and broadcast partners grumble.

and then second half and playoffs. There’s absolutely nothing called. Point being these guys just get held.  You can’t rely on pass rushers anymore. Unless they are an absolute freak that can win immediately. 
 

and second point - just draft offense. 

[Jay_Fixit]

Need.

 

lol

[ganesh]

On 2/6/2024 at 11:37 PM, mushypeaches said:

WR in the 1st round is almost an absolute must

 

I will lose my lunch if we take a safety or DL in that spot

Let the draft come to you.  Always pick the best player available.  You don't need to keep reaching in the draft for need.  

[Big Blitz]

Can’t get over the 2 seed in the AFC needs pretty much everything - expect TE and CB.   
 

But yea tell me how Allen isn’t the MVP.

 

 

DT

WR 1 and 2B

DE

S - probably need 2 here as well

OT depth 

C 

Edited February 10 by Big Blitz