1/7/24 Week #18 GAMEDAY Bills at Dolphins PregameThread Edit: Jags lost WE’RE IN!

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

I don't really get it, maybe with the playoffs actually clinched he's getting a shot to show he's got that bend back on some snaps, no other time left for him to do it that isn't win or go home.

[TFBillsfan]

2 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

DAMN IT!!!  How many times will Von run wide tonight.....he better be on a serious pitch count.

Agree….he hasn’t shown any reason to be active let alone take snaps from others. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

I don't think they're thinking that far ahead. I honestly don't get their panic at playing the Bills twice.

Odds of beating any opponent twice in a row no matter who the teams are is pretty bad and then you factor in bills have success against Miami much more often than not and it gets very unlikely

[Kwai San]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I don't really get it, maybe with the playoffs actually clinched he's getting a shot to show he's got that bend back on some snaps, no other time left for him to do it that isn't win or go home.

So unhappy with McClappy on this......I really hope to eat these words but it ain't looking like it.....

[zow2]

2 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Agree….he hasn’t shown any reason to be active let alone take snaps from others. 

 

Maybe he was slapped back into reality by being inactive. Let’s hope he rises to a new level.

[BRH]

22 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

I don't think they're thinking that far ahead. I honestly don't get their panic at playing the Bills twice.

I absolutely think they’re thinking that far ahead, and if you don’t get their panic, you haven’t been watching these last five years. 

[CircleTheWagons99]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

Maybe he was slapped back into reality by being inactive. Let’s hope he rises to a new level.

Thats what I want. And McD may not activte him again if he plays bad. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I don't really get it, maybe with the playoffs actually clinched he's getting a shot to show he's got that bend back on some snaps, no other time left for him to do it that isn't win or go home.

How he looks tonight will determine if he plays during the playoffs.  I still wouldn't give him a ton of snaps. He'll be close to 💯 by Sept but he'll also be 35.

[longtimebillsfan]

47 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Already am!

Great.

 

Go Bills!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

27 minutes ago, Rew said:

Probably one of the better links I've found on an opponents forum:

 

 

They made a really good point that the Bills defense earlier this season already seemed to know what was going on.  Really interesting to see if we can reproduce our earlier defensive effort (and Baltimore's).  

 

Edit: to be clear, the guy talking in the video turns 10 minutes into 70.  But the first 10-15 had good knowledge in it

I wonder if it’s a literal tell or just tua staring down routes and not really going through progressions/not using the sideline much unless it’s a deep ball 

[Unforgiven]

humiliating beating for the eagles.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Unforgiven said:

humiliating beating for the eagles.

Sucks it's happening to such a classy fan base

[Chaos]

Expecting the good Bills to dominate the batterered and whiny Dolphins.  Give -9.5 and make 250 percent on your bets.  Fish will be squished. 

[bills6969]

Anyone find a leak of the script for tonight’s game yet?

[Dablitzkrieg]

McDaniels will wave the white flag mid 3rd quarter

[TheWei44]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Odds of beating any opponent twice in a row no matter who the teams are is pretty bad and then you factor in bills have success against Miami much more often than not and it gets very unlikely

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

 

So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

[Rockinon]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I wonder if it’s a literal tell or just tua staring down routes and not really going through progressions/not using the sideline much unless it’s a deep ball 

I believe it is something they are seeing presnap.

[Rew]

4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I wonder if it’s a literal tell or just tua staring down routes and not really going through progressions/not using the sideline much unless it’s a deep ball 

The queen video seemed to imply it was an actual tell. 

 

Really got some perspective for game plans for me.  The idea of some coaching aide hitting rewind/play/rewind/play on the same players all week looking for how much weight they put on their knuckles is crazy.  It helps understand why upsets can happen that seem incomprehensible to fans.

[Clyde Smith]

24 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

Gotta dig the guy standing next to the Porta Potty, on his phone...wearing a Bates jersey. Hardcore, man.

Master Bates

[Gman10]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I'd rather catch Baltimore when they're rusty and Jackson is coming off three weeks of rest.

 

Seriously, I prefer the 7 seed.

Im not sure I agree with this...but sure! Lol

[Rew]

2 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

 

So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

That's true for independent events.  However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events.  Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch.  You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

 

So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again.  Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. 

so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument 

 

in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂

Edited January 7 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

Anyone find a leak of the script for tonight’s game yet?

Yes it says "Pain" I'm just not sure who's.

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, Rew said:

The queen video seemed to imply it was an actual tell. 

 

Really got some perspective for game plans for me.  The idea of some coaching aide hitting rewind/play/rewind/play on the same players all week looking for how much weight they put on their knuckles is crazy.  It helps understand why upsets can happen that seem incomprehensible to fans.

I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day.

[stevestojan]

Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change:

 

I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. 
I’ll be able to eat. 
I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re point favorites in Pitts if that happens. * This is wrong and 80 of you told me this already. Sorry, it’s been a day. But if we lose, I still think we beat Miami next week. No way they beat us twice in a row. 
 

Go bills. 

Edited January 7 by stevestojan

[UKBillFan]

The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed.

Just now, stevestojan said:

Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change:

 

I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. 
I’ll be able to eat. 
I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re 10 point favorites in Pitts if that happens. 
 

Go bills. 

 

If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day.

I’m thinking we did honestly…we have never had much trouble against tua even with McDaniel around.  There was that one matchup where we couldn’t stop the run despite knowing it was coming.  If it wasn’t us that came up with it there’s no way Baltimore is telling us lol

6 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed.

 

If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard.

They could be more banged up if they rush guys back for the game tonight…they’re in a tough spot honestly 

Edited January 7 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Lost]

 

Is this for real.   The dude still can't even walk.  Why is he playing?

[jcamm1966]

No excuses I want the 2 seed 

[TheWei44]

2 minutes ago, Rew said:

That's true for independent events.  However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events.  Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch.  You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls.

Agreed, I was treating them as independent events.  But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent.  That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game?  

[BuffaloBaumer]

I 

Want 

Another 

Tailgate

And 

Home

Game!

[TheWei44]

6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto to for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again.  Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. 

so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument 

 

in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂

Thanks for the response - I think a lot of what you're saying cuts both ways (e.g., tipping your hand re prime plays) and I was making the huge simplifying assumption of treating the two as independent events.  But point well taken and agreed!!

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Is this for real.   The dude still can't even walk.  Why is he playing?

No joke. He needs aot of work. He's tight af

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I've been in full on celebration mode since 3

[The Wiz]

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Murray inactive 

[TheWei44]

And apologies to folks for bogging down this thread with probability and statistics!!  I'm a lowly economist and sometimes can't help myself!!  Go Bills!!

[boyst]

Inactives out. Too lazy to post

[HurlyBurly51]

 

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

No joke. He needs aot of work. He's tight af

 

Maybe he just hasn't dropped that pregame log yet?