Pats V Bills Matchup

[PatsFanNH]

Figured I’d give my 2 cents on how the matchups will be like (IMO).

 

BillPass O v Pats Pass D — Bills by a lot! The Pats secondary is a bunch of scrubs off the street with a hurt Jonathan Jones leading them and he is at his best in the slot. The only chance NE has here is if Uche and Baremore have career type days and force Allen into mistakes. 
 

Bills Run O v Pats Run D — Pats, I say this because they have one of the best Run D in the NFL. I expect roughly 4 yards or less a carry…

 

Pats O v Bills D — Pats O is historically BAD! Add in they lost their #1 RB and WR in Bourne and Stevenson and well YIKES! The positive for this sad sack of a group is Zappe looks like a decent backup and Pop Douglas should be a good #2 or #3 in the future. The only way this group will be dangerous is if the Bills D sleep walks through the game and even then the most they could score is 24. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS

 

FG Kickers — Pats rookie has been average to bad… Advantage Bills

 

Punting — Pats have a great punter, he has gotten a ton of work!  lol (even)

 

Special Teams — Pats are jeckyl and Hyde on Special teams this year, some weeks they are very good other times bad. I honestly don’t pay close enough attention to the Bills special teams to know but at best it’s even for the Pats.. 

 

Overall it should be a win for the Bills

 

Bills 21

Pats 10

 

 

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Figured I’d give my 2 cents on how the matchups will be like (IMO).

 

BillPass O v Pats Pass D — Bills by a lot! The Pats secondary is a bunch of scrubs off the street with a hurt Jonathan Jones leading them and he is at his best in the slot. The only chance NE has here is if Uche and Baremore have career type days and force Allen into mistakes. 
 

Bills Run O v Pats Run D — Pats, I say this because they have one of the best Run D in the NFL. I expect roughly 4 yards or less a carry…

 

Pats O v Bills D — Pats O is historically BAD! Add in they lost their #1 RB and WR in Bourne and Stevenson and well YIKES! The positive for this sad sack of a group is Zappe looks like a decent backup and Pop Douglas should be a good #2 or #3 in the future. The only way this group will be dangerous is if the Bills D sleep walks through the game and even then the most they could score is 24. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS

 

FG Kickers — Pats rookie has been average to bad… Advantage Bills

 

Punting — Pats have a great punter, he has gotten a ton of work!  lol (even)

 

Special Teams — Pats are jeckyl and Hyde on Special teams this year, some weeks they are very good other times bad. I honestly don’t pay close enough attention to the Bills special teams to know but at best it’s even for the Pats.. 

 

Overall it should be a win for the Bills

 

Bills 21

Pats 10

 

 

 

 

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

[without a drought]

13 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

He's taken away the punting game before.

[Prospector]

I refuse to give in to ‘the man’, so I don’t post in the stickied Bills Pats thread. I post in the real threads by the people! Bills win by 20, Zappe throws 3 pics and is sacked 5 times. 

[BBFL]

23 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

🤫

[AmishRifle]

12 minutes ago, without a drought said:

He's taken away the punting game before.

This made me laugh out loud.  Although, I think Coach B will bring his A+ coaching game to this one.

[NewEra]

Thanks for the input.  I think you guys are much better than your record suggests based solely on your DL.  They can wreck game plans.

 

[BuffaloBill]

The Bills should be sharp in this one given what is in play.  However, the key will be ball security.  The Bills have been terrible at it in some games. They were lucky to escape LA Chargers with a win given this issue.  The key is Josh not being overly reliant on his arm like he was with the pass to Diggs downfield in LA game that was picked off. Same goes for Cook.  A great back but he must watch second efforts and ball security.

[JerseyBills]

If it was away I'd be concerned,  as I was last week but at home I just don't see their offense doing anything 

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

10 have been one score games. But how many of them did the Patriots score more than 10 points or 15 points? Let's not give them a ton of credit like they are a good team on the wrong side of high scoring one score games. They lost one game 10-6, another 6-0 and another 10-7. I wouldn't give credit for that. Losing games 33-30 is one thing. Losing games 10-6 and saying "well, they were one score games, they aren't that bad" is another. They are a bad team. 

[The BLUES Brothers]

Pats defense doesn't give up a lot of yards, but Buffalo great at home, except when they had 12 men on the field. I can see the path where pats could win but more likely see where Buffalo should prevail the winner in a closer game than most expect - guessing 24-20. Pats secondary is a little banged up so time for Josh to take the short open man/men where both TEs can have a busy day. Will it be Belichick's last game as visiting NE Coach? 

[finn]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

This take makes perfect sense. For that reason, I think the Bills will win in a blowout. With few exceptions, they've confounded conventional wisdom all year, losing to NE, Denver, the Jags and Jets, narrowly beating a lousy Chargers team, and beating good teams (including the Eagles in principle, who were bailed out by the refs, in a pattern that is starting to disgust many fans). 

 

No, they'll either lose or win in a blowout. 

[Don Otreply]

If the team plays to the level they are capable of they win this game handily, I see two to three picks, and five sacks or more. 
 

The guys knowing that their backs are to the wall they will take care of business,

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

10 have been one score games. But how many of them did the Patriots score more than 10 points or 15 points? Let's not give them a ton of credit like they are a good team on the wrong side of high scoring one score games. They lost one game 10-6, another 6-0 and another 10-7. I wouldn't give credit for that. Losing games 33-30 is one thing. Losing games 10-6 and saying "well, they were one score games, they aren't that bad" is another. They are a bad team. 

They have a bad offense and a good defense. Problem is, they run a style -- taking the easy stuff in the middle of the field in the passing game -- that the Bills pass D struggles with. The Bills seem to do much better against defenses with elite receivers and QBs who work the boundaries than against teams that prioritize always taking the easy passes available in a zone D. The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent, and the Pats shredded the Bills zone D in the first game this season. 

 

But yeah, the Bills should win. I just worry it'll be an ugly game.  

 

Honestly, after they got to 2-10, I felt that Belichick owed it to Mr. Kraft to lose out and maximize the chances that they can draft a franchise QB. Belichick isn't going along with that obviously correct strategy, however.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They have a bad offense and a good defense. Problem is, they run a style -- taking the easy stuff in the middle of the field in the passing game -- that the Bills pass D struggles with. The Bills seem to do much better against defenses with elite receivers and QBs who work the boundaries than against teams that prioritize always taking the easy passes available in a zone D. The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent, and the Pats shredded the Bills zone D in the first game this season. 

 

But yeah, the Bills should win. I just worry it'll be an ugly game. 

 

I think some of it will depend on whether Hunter Henry plays. He's the kind of target that would really frustrate our zone defense, I think, especially over the middle. I also would look for a lot of dump offs to the backs either in the flat or over the middle—need Bernard and Dodson to be on their game.

 

[Punching Bag]

Issue for the Bills will be the weather.  It could be snow or it could be wet and wet is worse.

Bills receivers have had trouble catching balls in wet weather and trouble catching tend to lead to interceptions.

[Success]

If the Pats started Zappe all season, they'd have at least 2-3 more wins, imo.

 

Jones might have more accuracy, but Zappe reminds me of someone like Heinicke.  He's more competitive, and fights harder.  He's also better at improvising and moving around the pocket.

 

 

[Logic]

If there was to be one thing that concerns me against the Pats, it's this:

The Bills have been mostly living off the run game lately. Their WRs have not been getting good separation, and they generally haven't been lighting it up through the air. 

The Pats, meanwhile, have a very good run defense, as you pointed out. If the Bills are unable to run the ball, and the pass game starts out slow -- as it is wont to do at times this year -- then this could be a closer and more anxiety-inducing game then it needs to be.

I still think the Bills ultimately find a way to take care of business at home, but I don't think it's going to be a 37-13 snoozefest or anything. I have the sneaking suspicion the game may be closer than Bills fans would prefer. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[eball]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

 

If the Bills had blown out the Chargers I'd feel exactly this way...but because that game was closer than expected I am looking to see a highly motivated Bills team on Sunday afternoon.  I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling...

 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, eball said:

 

If the Bills had blown out the Chargers I'd feel exactly this way...but because that game was closer than expected I am looking to see a highly motivated Bills team on Sunday afternoon.  I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling...

 

I hope you're right. 

[KDIGGZ]

I have a lot of friends who are Pats fans. If you laugh about how bad they are the always say the same thing: 6 rings. Not sure what that has to do with how absolutely pathetic this team is now.

 

Hopefully the rumors aren't true and Belichick stays there another 5+ years because I would be worried if they actually had a good offensive minded coach/GM and a top QB in the draft.

[cd1]

How hard do you work when you know you are getting canned in two weeks?

[Success]

3 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

I have a lot of friends who are Pats fans. If you laugh about how bad they are the always say the same thing: 6 rings. Not sure what that has to do with how absolutely pathetic this team is now.

 

Hopefully the rumors aren't true and Belichick stays there another 5+ years because I would be worried if they actually had a good offensive minded coach/GM and a top QB in the draft.

 

Many of those fans are also Red Sox fans - who always mocked Yankees fans for just responding "27 titles" when NY was struggling over the past decade+.

 

I love the irony.

 

[Since1981]

deflate the K balls back to 1947—the great BB equalizer

[RiotAct]

2 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

which is maddening, since McD keeps guys on the roster pretty much solely based on their (perceived) Special Teams prowess.

[Whites Bay]

34 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Issue for the Bills will be the weather.  It could be snow or it could be wet and wet is worse.

Bills receivers have had trouble catching balls in wet weather and trouble catching tend to lead to interceptions.

Just had the NWS site up, so I plugged in Orchard Park.

 

 

"Sunday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%"

 

72 hours out, so it'll change a little - but not much.  Start to lean on the run game in the second half.

 

 

[JustHewIt]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent

 

Did they? They had 273 yards on 65 plays, took five sacks, and kicked a bunch of field goals thanks in part to great drive starts after turnovers. That yards per play would rank at the bottom of the league, looking at season long averages

Edited December 28, 2023 by JustHewIt

[Ray Stonada]

8 minutes ago, Whites Bay said:

Just had the NWS site up, so I plugged in Orchard Park.

 

 

"Sunday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%"

 

72 hours out, so it'll change a little - but not much.  Start to lean on the run game in the second half.

 

 

Throw it all over the yard from 12 personnel first half, then run wild out of the same sets in the second.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, JustHewIt said:

 

Did they? They had 273 yards on 65 plays, took five sacks, and kicked a bunch of field goals thanks in part to great drive starts after turnovers. That yards per play would rank at the bottom of the league average

Yes, they surely did. A team with that level of talent should have been held to 170 yards and 3 points. They were HORRIBLE talent-wise on offense in that game. That same offense had 123 yards vs the Raiders before garbage time kicked in (late in the 3rd quarter when the Raiders were up 49-0). The Bills didn't force any turnovers either against that horrible unit.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

I have a lot of friends who are Pats fans. If you laugh about how bad they are the always say the same thing: 6 rings. Not sure what that has to do with how absolutely pathetic this team is now.

 

Hopefully the rumors aren't true and Belichick stays there another 5+ years because I would be worried if they actually had a good offensive minded coach/GM and a top QB in the draft.

What rumors are you hearing? Even BB is now starting to sound like it’s over for him in NE.

 

people laugh about their terrible record I laugh and just say for as High as my team was and for how long they were.. I was fully expecting the wheels to fall off sometime.  (I mean being good to great from 1996 till 2020 is pretty amazing stretch.)

 

as for the team now, the O is pathetic, the D is pretty good… I mean the set a record for losing 3 games in a row when the D gave up 10 points or less… that’s a pathetic offense!

[frostbitmic]

I'm glad the patriots are starting Zappe over MacCorkle Jones. In the previous Bills/pats game, the Bills Defense made Jones look like a HOFer. Losing to Jones twice in a season would be pitiful.

[Punching Bag]

7 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I'm glad the patriots are starting Zappe over MacCorkle Jones. In the previous Bills/pats game, the Bills Defense made Jones look like a HOFer. Losing to Jones twice in a season would be pitiful.

 

Zappe is starting against Bills for if Bills knock him out Beli-CHEAT's chosen QB comes in.  It is the 4th dimensional tic-tac-toe he plays.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

I'm glad the patriots are starting Zappe over MacCorkle Jones. In the previous Bills/pats game, the Bills Defense made Jones look like a HOFer. Losing to Jones twice in a season would be pitiful.

Hmm but wouldn’t it be worse ton lose to Jones AND Zappe?  I don’t see it happening but IMO that be worse.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Yes, they surely did. A team with that level of talent should have been held to 170 yards and 3 points. They were HORRIBLE talent-wise on offense in that game. That same offense had 123 yards vs the Raiders before garbage time kicked in (late in the 3rd quarter when the Raiders were up 49-0). The Bills didn't force any turnovers either against that horrible unit.

 

Yeah I pointed out in another thread the Chargers scored 4 FGs on drives that started at or before the 50, and we allowed a TD instead of a FG after Harty's fumble. That is 16 points legitimately given up by the defense against a UDFA QB throwing to his #3 and #4 WRs and down to his 3rd center. Inexcusable performance against that crew IMO.

 

I hope McDermott learned something after the first Patriots debacle. That was probably the worst defensive performance of any team this season. I am begging him not to call a bunch of stupid and predictable blitzes that Zappe simply dumps off for chunk yardage. I want him to call more man than usual - against this group of weapons, I would much rather trust our guys to stick to their man than give Zappe easy holes in zone coverage to exploit.

 

On offense this is one of those weeks where I want Allen to play reserved. No need to push the envelope with cross body deep throws and the like, not with Bailey Zappe on the other side. Smart conservative football and just wear the Pats down slowly. I would lean heavily into throws to the RBs and TEs in this one. I don't expect Diggs and Davis to suddenly become separation machines this week.

 

Take every point available in this one. 4th and goal from the 2, kick the FG. Don't make the same mistake Denver made. Again it is Bailey Zappe on the other side. Any score is a huge positive.

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by HappyDays

[RoyBatty is alive]

6 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

Lets be honest, our special teams have sucked.  I give  a massive plus to the Pats except we do have the superior field goal kicker.

 

Our punt protection and out punt coverage has been dreadful  I am fearful Belichek is going to  scheme in an overbalanced line to clock one of our punts.   If we do get it off, our lane discipline is terrible and we allow for large returns.  Also Martin's delivery to punt is slow and he too often pumps right down the middle of the field really exposing our punt defenders.

Edited December 28, 2023 by RoyBatty is alive

[LetzGoBuffalo]

Bills - 28

Patricia's - 17

[dave mcbride]

17 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Lets be honest, pour special teams have sucked.  I give  a massive plus to the Pats except we do have the superior field goal kicker.

 

Our punt protection and out punt coverage has been dreadful  I am fearful Belichek is going to  scheme in an overbalanced line to clock one of our punts.   If we do get it off, our lane discipline is terrible and we allow for large returns.  Also Martin's delivery to punt is slow and he too often pumps right down the middle of the field really exposing our punt defenders.

Martin is 32nd out of 33 qualifying punters in net yards per punt.

 

The Bills have straight-up lost two games on ST blunders on the final play: vs the Jets and the Broncos. That's two too many.

Edited December 28, 2023 by dave mcbride

[TwistofFate]

 

[JustHewIt]

53 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I pointed out in another thread the Chargers scored 4 FGs on drives that started at or before the 50, and we allowed a TD instead of a FG after Harty's fumble. That is 16 points legitimately given up by the defense against a UDFA QB throwing to his #3 and #4 WRs and down to his 3rd center. Inexcusable performance against that crew IMO.

 

I hope McDermott learned something after the first Patriots debacle. That was probably the worst defensive performance of any team this season. I am begging him not to call a bunch of stupid and predictable blitzes that Zappe simply dumps off for chunk yardage. I want him to call more man than usual - against this group of weapons, I would much rather trust our guys to stick to their man than give Zappe easy holes in zone coverage to exploit.

 

On offense this is one of those weeks where I want Allen to play reserved. No need to push the envelope with cross body deep throws and the like, not with Bailey Zappe on the other side. Smart conservative football and just wear the Pats down slowly. I would lean heavily into throws to the RBs and TEs in this one. I don't expect Diggs and Davis to suddenly become separation machines this week.

 

Take every point available in this one. 4th and goal from the 2, kick the FG. Don't make the same mistake Denver made. Again it is Bailey Zappe on the other side. Any score is a huge positive.

 

 

Like, I respect what you guys are saying and that these close games against lesser teams don't feel great. But what specifically do you feel our defense did wrong? The other poster said to hold them to 170 yards. That would be 2.61 yards per play. Seems a bit unreasonable to me. This is still an NFL offense with a system that has been super productive over the years. 

 

Do other teams look at our banged up defense and say "They're missing three all pros, two other pro bowlers, their best linebacker is running around with a banged up ankle, and their 100 million dollar pass rusher is useless. Why didn't we score 50 pts!!!!"  Perhaps their backups and young players aren't god awful? What do you actually know about their third string center?