Go On Record Now for 2023 Draft:

[eball]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. I screwed the pooch on Allen. I still hate his college film. Still even now. I missed on his legs massively and that does stand out on his film... but man I still hate him as a passer at Wyoming. 

 

But again, fair to accuse some of the hindsight game. Not fair to accuse me of it. My opinions are always there for right or for wrong. Don't try to hide them or change them. 

 

I got Josh Allen majorly wrong.

 

You had the rare double whammy that night...in the same thread you wrote "Rosen is gonna be really good." 

 

But I love the accountability.  Perusing that thread is something else.  A lot of the usual suspects saying their usual things.

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, eball said:

 

You had the rare double whammy that night...in the same thread you wrote "Rosen is gonna be really good." 

 

But I love the accountability.  Perusing that thread is something else.  A lot of the usual suspects saying their usual things.

 

 

Yep. The 2018 QB class was not my finest moment. 

[BigAl2526]

I have no problem with Beane's drafting.  Teams do not hit on every draft pick.  It just doesn't happen.  I don't think Basham is a failed draft pick.  Had the Bills kept Basham and cut or traded someone else, I expect Basham would have had a few sacks and the kind of stats you expect from a rotational player.  The Bills traded him because it was a crowded room and they like what they see from Kingsley Jonathan, who costs them a lot less.  I think Kaiir Elam is going to be fine.  It's just taking him some time to adapt to zone defense.  I think he would have been OK as a starter this year if the Bills had gone that route.  The Bills got really lucky with Christian Benford.  

 

As far as this year's class is concerned, I'm generally not into making predictions.  I expect that Kincaid and Torrence are going to have successful careers.  I'm optimistic about Dorian Williams.  I think Shorter is a coin flip.  I think Broeker and Austin probably have backup potential.  The Bills just happened to be fairly crowded at their positions.  Van Demark and Anderson were better than the Bills expected.  Broeker was never going to beat out McGovern or Edwards.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The 2018 QB class was not my finest moment. 

QB is as much finding the right scheme and coaches as it is talent 

 

Every single scout thought it was the best in 20 years 

 

And it's really not done yet ... Stories to write 

 

The most talented guys... With the most question marks ... Allen , Lamar ... All shut down doubts

 

The talent of guys like darnold, undeniable.... That's why the NFL chews you up and spits you out

 

 

 

 

[Dopey]

Like everyone else here, I don’t have a clue. I’ll wait a couple of years before wanting to cut or trade a player. Makes more sense than wanting to trade Elam after 1 season. No?

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Like everyone else here, I don’t have a clue. I’ll wait a couple of years before wanting to cut or trade a player. Makes more sense than wanting to trade Elam after 1 season. No?

unless compensation for Elam is ridiculous trade makes no sense to me

[BillsFanForever19]

11 hours ago, boyst said:

It seems we have a lot of people weighing in how they knew Basham was never going to pan out. That we should have got Creed Humphey. That Elam is a bust. Etc.

 

Now is your chance to weigh in for historical accuracy. Weigh in on each of the following so you can brag to the rest of the internet in a few years of your marvelous victory!

 

1) Kincaid

2) Torrence

3) Williams

4) Shorter

7) Broeker

7) Austin

 

Any other hot takes on draft spots that were reasonable that the Bills could have acquired? Or other hot takes?

 

1) Kincaid will be in the league a while. Catch 600 yards on average through his career, and will be a valuable addition rounding out any roster he is on adding a downfield target. He has a 6-8 year career ahead of him.

2) Torrence will be a starter for a few years, middle of the road quality. He has a 4-5 year career ahead of him.

3) Williams will be on the roster for a few years, in the NFL no more than 4-5 years. He will contribute on special teams more than defense. He will be considered a reach and bust.

4) Shorter won't pass the depth chart of 4th WR on any roster worth a damn. He will join Shakir of never making a significant impact on an NFL roster.

7) Broeker will be in the league a few years on the practice squad.

7) Austin will be rostered at times because of his position and special teams.

 

Outside of this I think Joey Porter, Jr. will be tremendously overhyped and allowed to play a physical game and get the same treat Travon Diggs - made more famous than he is.

 

Outside of your takes, which are rather pessimistic when it comes to guys in this Draft outside of Kincaid, I think your forecast of length in the league on guys is too short.

 

A good TE often has a very long career. It's not odd to see guys play into their 30's. Kyle Rudolph was in the league last year at 33. Greg Olsen was playing at 35. Jimmy Graham is playing this year at 36. If Kincaid is what he says he is, he'll be in this league longer than 6-8 years, barring major injury.

 

If Torrence is a starter for a few years, he'll definitely be around longer than 4-5 years. Especially with the middle of the road play league wide at the Offensive Line. Cody Ford, a complete bust, is entering year 5 this year. A guy like Bobby Hart was entering year 9 before he was released.

Edited August 31, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[PBF81]

10 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

1) I think that Kincaid will effectively settle into a niche that Cole Beasley managed for about a decade: a reliable 3rd down chain mover, but with the added benefit of being a big body to let him be a red zone threat and get 4-6 TD a year.

2) Torrance will be a solid starter for 4-5 years until he gets too expensive and we let him walk. 

 

Kincaid is definitely going to be interesting to watch.  I can see him being as good as Kelce, which is obviously why they drafted him, or I can see him being patently average.  Some of that will obviously depend upon Dorsey, Allen, and even McD.  

 

This is going to be a very interesting season.  The talent is there on offense to be able to take this team to the Conference Championship and win it, particularly with KC having a serious dearth of receiving talent over there this season.  If McD cannot do that, I suspect that there are going to be cracks in the support for "Trust the Process" era.  

 

 

[HOUSE]

I never go on record

[HappyDays]

Kincaid - He will lead all rookies in receiving yards this year (I have a +1400 bet riding on this outcome). By next year he will be a regular 1,000 yard pass catcher. When Kelce retires he will be widely known as the best TE in the NFL. The only thing he may struggle with as a rookie is separating from physical LBs and DBs that get their hands on him off the line. Once he figures that out he will be the most annoying player to deal with like Kelce has been.

 

Torrence - He will struggle a bit as a pass blocker as a rookie but immediately be a people mover in the run game. He will always be a better run blocker than pass blocker. He won't ever be regarded as an All-Pro type player but he will be the answer at guard here or elsewhere for the next 10+ years.

 

Williams - He will have a roster spot somewhere for the next decade because of his tackling abilities but he'll never get a long term contract. I think he will have a career similar to Christian Kirksey. He will be a guy you can live with as a WLB.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

29 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Kincaid is definitely going to be interesting to watch.  I can see him being as good as Kelce, which is obviously why they drafted him, or I can see him being patently average.  Some of that will obviously depend upon Dorsey, Allen, and even McD.  

 

This is going to be a very interesting season.  The talent is there on offense to be able to take this team to the Conference Championship and win it, particularly with KC having a serious dearth of receiving talent over there this season.  If McD cannot do that, I suspect that there are going to be cracks in the support for "Trust the Process" era.  

 

 

Part of me wants to set reasonable expectations. A lot of promising 1st round tight end prospects haven't really exploded over the last few years. Hockenson and Pitts haven't set the world on fire and it's unreasonable to expect Kincaid being better right out of the gate but I am really liking the move to 2 TE sets.

 

Obviously I want him to be Kelce 2.0

Edited August 31, 2023 by WhitewalkerInPhilly

[NeverOutNick]

Fun stuff!

 

1) Kincaid - I’m bullish on this kid. If healthy he will be Kelce 2.0 and have a HOF career as a Buffalo Bill retiring the same year as Josh  (12+ years from now) so they can be inducted at the same time

 

2) Torrence - solid plug and play starting right guard for the next 5-10 years

 

3) Williams - Solid backup LB who spot starts here and there throughout his career

 

4) Shorter - bust. Dude body catches everything. Should’ve taken a chance on a WR with higher upside guy like the Princeton kid, Andrei Iosivas who we could’ve got a round later. Hope I’m wrong but there were at least 20 WRs I would’ve taken over Shorter

 

7) Broeker - not on the team anymore and honestly didn’t pay alot of attention to him

 

7) Austin - he actually looks like he could develop into a good corner and stay around the league for 4-6 years but I’m glad we kept Ingram I like his potential more

 

 

a couple others:

 

Zay Flowers will go down as the best WR from this class. Even in Baltimore with their lackluster pass offense he is going to be a big time game changing playmaker.

Devon Witherspoon will be the best corner in this class and has potential to be a top 10 corner for the next 5-10 years

And a future bills player prediction:

 

Ryan Van Demark will be the starting LT for the Buffalo Bills in 2024 

Edited August 31, 2023 by NeverOutNick

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, boyst said:

It seems we have a lot of people weighing in how they knew Basham was never going to pan out. That we should have got Creed Humphey. That Elam is a bust. Etc.

 

Now is your chance to weigh in for historical accuracy. Weigh in on each of the following so you can brag to the rest of the internet in a few years of your marvelous victory!

 

1) Kincaid

2) Torrence

3) Williams

4) Shorter

7) Broeker

7) Austin

 

Any other hot takes on draft spots that were reasonable that the Bills could have acquired? Or other hot takes?

 

1) Kincaid will be in the league a while. Catch 600 yards on average through his career, and will be a valuable addition rounding out any roster he is on adding a downfield target. He has a 6-8 year career ahead of him.

2) Torrence will be a starter for a few years, middle of the road quality. He has a 4-5 year career ahead of him.

3) Williams will be on the roster for a few years, in the NFL no more than 4-5 years. He will contribute on special teams more than defense. He will be considered a reach and bust.

4) Shorter won't pass the depth chart of 4th WR on any roster worth a damn. He will join Shakir of never making a significant impact on an NFL roster.

7) Broeker will be in the league a few years on the practice squad.

7) Austin will be rostered at times because of his position and special teams.

 

Outside of this I think Joey Porter, Jr. will be tremendously overhyped and allowed to play a physical game and get the same treat Travon Diggs - made more famous than he is.

 

1. Kincaid: Will be a very good and productive big slot receiver, but will be a liability as a blocker. This will limit him as a true TE as he will have little value as a Y (inline) and will have to be aligned as an F (slot). Whether he develops as a blocker will determine whether that changes and will impact his ceiling as a player.

 

2. Torrence: He is a good prospect for power/gap blocking schemes. He may be able to adjust to a zone scheme, but will likely perform better in the run game when power/gap concepts are used. His feet seem good enough for pass pro so I don’t see the issues some scouts feared. Still, it’s something worth watching. Power and strength will not be an issue for him. 

 

I haven’t watched film of any of the others so I won’t offer an opinion until I see them play. The only thing worth mentioning about Williams a that his scouting profile read like a smaller version of Edmunds’. That’s why I think he was drafted to play MLB.

[Bobby Hooks]

11 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

1) I think that Kincaid will effectively settle into a niche that Cole Beasley managed for about a decade: a reliable 3rd down chain mover, but with the added benefit of being a big body to let him be a red zone threat and get 4-6 TD a year.

2) Torrance will be a solid starter for 4-5 years until he gets too expensive and we let him walk. 

That was the old Bills. Beane signs the good ones now. He’ll do it a year earlier than he should to get a good deal. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Bobby Hooks

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The 2018 QB class was not my finest moment. 

I'll happily eat my crow on that one too

[PBF81]

58 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Part of me wants to set reasonable expectations. A lot of promising 1st round tight end prospects haven't really exploded over the last few years. Hockenson and Pitts haven't set the world on fire and it's unreasonable to expect Kincaid being better right out of the gate but I am really liking the move to 2 TE sets.

 

Obviously I want him to be Kelce 2.0

 

All I know is that unless McD needs 3 all-pro WRs, an all-pro TE, an all-pro RB, and several all-pro OL-men, he has more than enough to out compete any team in the league this season on offense if he and Dorsey can put it all together, part of which includes ensuring that Allen uses his high-percentage short-game much more than he did last season and more like he did with Beasley here.  

 

I suspect that will happen, for that very reason, that he did it when Beasley was here but simply didn't have a "Beasley" around last season.  

 

We'll see, we first find out in 12 days.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

[Roundybout]

Sure, I'll play along. 

 

1) Kincaid - kid's gonna be a stud. I genuinely think he will reach Jason Whitten/Greg Olson levels of success. He just looks so smooth and has such sure hands. Seems to have the moxie too. 

 

2) Torrence - mayobe not an all-pro, but a rock-solid starter for years to come. Thinking Richie Incognito but without the insanity. 

 

3) Williams - I don't know what to think. He seems awfully light, but he was a stud at Tulane and I think he can be a good defensive weapon. I'll say he hangs around for his rookie deal then goes somewhere else. 

 

4) Shorter - WR3 that hangs around in the league for a while like Golden Tate.

 

7) Broeker - Backup at best. 

 

7) Austin - long-term special teamer like Taiwan Jones. 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Putting him on waivers was a huge error as he was picked up by the Texans.

 

Who do you let go instead to get Broeker on the roster though? McGovern, Bates, Edwards, Torrence, and Morse were all locks. That left Anderson and Broeker competing for the last IOL spot on the roster. By all accounts Anderson had a better camp and preseason. This was unfortunately just a numbers decision, and Anderson unlike Broeker appears to be able to play center too.

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by HappyDays

[BruceSlayne]

First 4 picks HOF

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, boyst said:

This will forever be a gem

 

 

@GunnerBill

Posted April 26, 2018

This is a mistake. It will bring down this regime. You can mark this post and you can quote it back to me any time you like in the future if I am wrong. 

 

 

 

I won't be. 

 

As usual I nailed it.

 

Quote

HappyDays

Posted April 26, 2018

This is literally my nightmare. Don't care about the rest of the draft anymore

 

[RobbRiddick]

Within 2 years people will start celebrating Dalton's TDs by exclaiming that the opposing team "is suffering from a case of full blown Kincaids!" 

 

This will cause controversy on some ESPN shows but Bills fans will refuse to stop chanting it at games

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Kincaid will have a very nice 11 year career, then he will become manager of The Partridge Family.

 

They will regret letting Austin ($6 Miilion Man) get away.

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

You had the rare double whammy that night...in the same thread you wrote "Rosen is gonna be really good." 

 

But I love the accountability.  Perusing that thread is something else.  A lot of the usual suspects saying their usual things.

 

 

It wasn't just @GunnerBill. Most of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen. And it wasn't just Bills fans, almost every fan of a team projected to draft a QB that year felt the same way about him. In the decade prior, every QB with that profile as a project with a strong arm had failed, including our very own Losman and Manuel. Then Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert all hit the scene in quick succession and changed the conversation.

[boyst]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

As usual I nailed it.

 

 

You have to take it in stride. I remember daron Lee was underrated. Bradberry was going to be all pro. A few other lesser picks. I don't remember ever sayingnmuch to the top ends of the draft beside wanting Humphrey

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The 2018 QB class was not my finest moment. 

That's the thing, you make your best guesses based on what you see, know, and sometimes just plainly hope.

 

Can't be 100% right all the time and you're generally more towards correct than wrong.

 

Where people need to really learn the best to contributor on this forum is where you and a select few others present different opinions without vitriolic rhetoric.

 

Of course, I used to stir that pot something fancy to folks. 😇. I can't say much for me

[DasNootz]

5 years from now - this will be seen as one a top 5 draft class in this organization. 
 

Shorter will prove to be the best value

 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by DasNootz

[VW82]

I love our first three picks. Kincaid will seem like a luxury pick to anyone not paying attention but he's a potential fit/band aid to a bunch of our problems (e.g. OLine protection, size at receiver, slot post Beas, end zone weapon, etc.). O'Cyrus and Williams were need picks but there's nothing to suggest they won't be productive based on their history. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by VW82

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Fun stuff!

 

1) Kincaid - I’m bullish on this kid. If healthy he will be Kelce 2.0 and have a HOF career as a Buffalo Bill retiring the same year as Josh  (12+ years from now) so they can be inducted at the same time

 

2) Torrence - solid plug and play starting right guard for the next 5-10 years

 

3) Williams - Solid backup LB who spot starts here and there throughout his career

 

4) Shorter - bust. Dude body catches everything. Should’ve taken a chance on a WR with higher upside guy like the Princeton kid, Andrei Iosivas who we could’ve got a round later. Hope I’m wrong but there were at least 20 WRs I would’ve taken over Shorter

 

7) Broeker - not on the team anymore and honestly didn’t pay alot of attention to him

 

7) Austin - he actually looks like he could develop into a good corner and stay around the league for 4-6 years but I’m glad we kept Ingram I like his potential more

 

 

a couple others:

 

Zay Flowers will go down as the best WR from this class. Even in Baltimore with their lackluster pass offense he is going to be a big time game changing playmaker.

Devon Witherspoon will be the best corner in this class and has potential to be a top 10 corner for the next 5-10 years

And a future bills player prediction:

 

Ryan Van Demark will be the starting LT for the Buffalo Bills in 2024 

Oh I agree about Witherspoon he will be better than Sauce Gardener. He was a one man secondary at Illinois 

[WyoAZBillfan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It wasn't just @GunnerBill. Most of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen. And it wasn't just Bills fans, almost every fan of a team projected to draft a QB that year felt the same way about him. In the decade prior, every QB with that profile as a project with a strong arm had failed, including our very own Losman and Manuel. Then Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert all hit the scene in quick succession and changed the conversation.

I can say it was one of my happiest moments as a Bills fan. When Buffalo traded the PM pick to KC, I was cheering and told my wife and son “we’re getting Josh when he comes out”. Total speculation, but having seen 17 and Coach B made WY fun to watch and relevant in bowl discussions. The kid is fun to watch no matter how high his sugar levels get! Totally hopes and dreams he would make Buffalo fun to watch again, but he has in my eyes! Just my opinion, nothing but pure luck and a ton of hope!

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I’m all the way in on Kincaid. I think he was a fantastic pick. A huge underrated attribute for him is his quickness. Idk which Steelers CB it was, but he absolutely broke their ankles on a post route. 
 

I second this with Torrence. No sacks allowed in his 4 years starting in college. I watch some film breakdown of him and he is not going be beat on the inside. His football intelligence is off the charts for his lack of experience and that’s why he was named a starter and never looked back. I’m not the best with football terminology, but there was a play where Torrence was double teaming the DT w/ Morse, TJ Watt beats the right tackle with a clear direct path towards Allen, Torrence then quickly jumps off the DT and slides over to block Watt then Allen hits Gabe Davis over the middle. It was an extremely smart play that could’ve had devastating consequences. I know it’s one play, but it kind sold me on Torrence. 

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Yep. I screwed the pooch on Allen. I still hate his college film. Still even now. I missed on his legs massively and that does stand out on his film... but man I still hate him as a passer at Wyoming. 

 

But again, fair to accuse some of the hindsight game. Not fair to accuse me of it. My opinions are always there for right or for wrong. Don't try to hide them or change them. 

 

I got Josh Allen majorly wrong.

 

So did a lot of people.  IMO your assessment wasn't off.   There was almost no evidence that he could even read defenses in college.  You know how difficult it is to become a pro QB when you come in never really having had to, or perhaps simply never having read defenses well.  I cannot think of a single QB that got drafted with that as a weakness and become anything better than a backup.  

 

My take at that time was that he was a man among boys in college, which he was.  Of all of the QBs in the draft that year, including the ones that never got drafted, he had the worst performance against power-5 competition of any of them.  

 

At Wyoming, generally speaking, he overcame the fundamentals like that with sheer athleticism, which is why he was so poor the handful of times he played against power-5 teams, because that athletic advantage was heavily mitigated.  

 

The one hope that I held out for him was his intellect, which I gave about a 5% chance at the time of sustaining him in the NFL.  And by golly, he did it.  The kid's incredibly bright, which is obvious in how well spoken and well thought out he is.  

 

It's players like Zay Jones, Watkins, Spiller, Oliver that are much easier to accurately predict how good they'll be in the NFL based upon what they did and how they did it in college.   QB play also always has a whole bunch of complexities that cannot always be synthesized in an analysis, or let's just say are more difficult to synthesize due to the mental aspect of the play, unlike any other position.  

 

Missing on Allen is hardly a knock on someone.  He defied the odds, in a major way.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It wasn't just @GunnerBill. Most of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen. And it wasn't just Bills fans, almost every fan of a team projected to draft a QB that year felt the same way about him. In the decade prior, every QB with that profile as a project with a strong arm had failed, including our very own Losman and Manuel. Then Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert all hit the scene in quick succession and changed the conversation.

 

See my post above.  

 

QBs are tough.  Look at some of the past ones.  When Leinart entered the Draft that year, they said that he was one of the most NFL ready QBs to ever come out.  Look at how he played, horribly.  Personally, if I were a GM I'd steer clear of any PAC-10 QB for the reason that PAC-10 Defenses are soft.  It's the only purely offensively oriented power-5 conference in the NCAAs.  

 

Then there were QBs like Vince Young, who despite being a moron was physically gifted.  Jamarcus Russell.  When Winston and Mariota came out everyone was arguing about which should have been first and which should have been second with a split.  Having said that, Herbert, Rodgers, and Goff are PAC-10 QBs.  

 

 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It wasn't just @GunnerBill. Most of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen. And it wasn't just Bills fans, almost every fan of a team projected to draft a QB that year felt the same way about him. In the decade prior, every QB with that profile as a project with a strong arm had failed, including our very own Losman and Manuel. Then Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert all hit the scene in quick succession and changed the conversation.

Aaron Rodgers didn't fail 

 

Teams have always looked for a mobile QB with size that has a cannon ... 

 

Been the goal for 100 years

 

Most scouts including myself saw the immense talent with Josh Allen... As a Bills fan whose employed in football... I did not think the bills would be able to develop somebody like that

 

After 20 years of being terrible it's easier to want something safer... Then swing for the home run

 

But nobody could deny Joshs talent

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Buffalo716

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Who do you let go instead to get Broeker on the roster though? McGovern, Bates, Edwards, Torrence, and Morse were all locks. That left Anderson and Broeker competing for the last IOL spot on the roster. By all accounts Anderson had a better camp and preseason. This was unfortunately just a numbers decision, and Anderson unlike Broeker appears to be able to play center too.

 

fair point.  Numbers game of average backups.  Keep the ones with more upside. ideally I guess I would have cut a vet who we resign after, only letting one pressure in preseason is impressive enough to try to get creative to keep, but perhaps we were out of creative options. 

[RenoNVBillsfan]

I’ll go on record predicting that this will end up being the 2nd best draft class under Beane. My belief is that not only will Kincaid end up a Pro Bowler but will end up the best TE, statistically, in Bills history. I may double down and suggest this guy could end an All Pro in 3 years. Also, mark it down: Torrence is the best OG in the AFCE in 2 years and also a Pro Bowler by then. Williams, paired with Milano, will eventually help form the best OLB tandem in the conference. Talk me off the ledge. 😁
 

I don’t like how Shorter seems to body catch the ball more than his hands. I can see Austin, actually lasting at least 4 years with a squad. 

[WyoAZBillfan]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

So did a lot of people.  IMO your assessment wasn't off.   There was almost no evidence that he could even read defenses in college.  You know how difficult it is to become a pro QB when you come in never really having had to, or perhaps simply never having read defenses well.  I cannot think of a single QB that got drafted with that as a weakness and become anything better than a backup.  

 

My take at that time was that he was a man among boys in college, which he was.  Of all of the QBs in the draft that year, including the ones that never got drafted, he had the worst performance against power-5 competition of any of them.  

 

At Wyoming, generally speaking, he overcame the fundamentals like that with sheer athleticism, which is why he was so poor the handful of times he played against power-5 teams, because that athletic advantage was heavily mitigated.  

 

The one hope that I held out for him was his intellect, which I gave about a 5% chance at the time of sustaining him in the NFL.  And by golly, he did it.  The kid's incredibly bright, which is obvious in how well spoken and well thought out he is.  

 

It's players like Zay Jones, Watkins, Spiller, Oliver that are much easier to accurately predict how good they'll be in the NFL based upon what they did and how they did it in college.   QB play also always has a whole bunch of complexities that cannot always be synthesized in an analysis, or let's just say are more difficult to synthesize due to the mental aspect of the play, unlike any other position.  

 

Missing on Allen is hardly a knock on someone.  He defied the odds, in a major way.  

 

 

Not disagreeing with your whole post at all. Just think that some traits are not measurable. The knock about not playing powerhouse teams, yet he wasn’t surrounded with powerhouse teammates either. Part of me thinks players sometimes get ruined by teams that draft them, or how they are put into the NFL arena. Mahomes may not have fair as well without time to sit, OR maybe he would’ve lit it up off the bat. Put him on a Clevland, the 49ers or Jax and how does he do? 
Just the right puck at the right time with people who helped unlock those intangibles it seems. 
Trent Dilfer was never a world beater/champion until he was put in the right place at the right time.

 Perspective and timing when it comes to hitting on any player it seems really. 

[John from Riverside]

First three pics were slam dunks even if Dorian Williams is it going to start this year

[PBF81]

31 minutes ago, WyoAZBillfan said:

Not disagreeing with your whole post at all. Just think that some traits are not measurable. The knock about not playing powerhouse teams, yet he wasn’t surrounded with powerhouse teammates either. Part of me thinks players sometimes get ruined by teams that draft them, or how they are put into the NFL arena. Mahomes may not have fair as well without time to sit, OR maybe he would’ve lit it up off the bat. Put him on a Clevland, the 49ers or Jax and how does he do? 
Just the right puck at the right time with people who helped unlock those intangibles it seems. 
Trent Dilfer was never a world beater/champion until he was put in the right place at the right time.

 Perspective and timing when it comes to hitting on any player it seems really. 

 

You seem to have missed most of what was stated.  I know you were a fan of his at Wtoming, I think that's impacting your perception here.

 

Allen had not developed the skillset that every QB that's ended up being great in the NFL had coming in.  Plain and simple.

 

He developed it, all of it, while in the NFL.  

 

It says a tremendous amount about him personally.  At the same time, to deny that detracts from his intellectual abilities.  

 

The fact is that his sum total of performances against power five competition was Peterman-like in the NFL 

 

QBs on worse teams played p5 competition better than he did.  That's a fact.  I'm on my phone now, but I have it in a spreadsheet somewhere, but I think it was like 1 passing TD to 8 INTs or something like that, on like 4 YPA or thereabouts.  It was horrific.  Remind me, I'll dig up the analysis and post it tomorrow if you want.

 

It really speaks a whole lot about Allen, incredibly positively that he could do that.  Again, I've never known a QB to have done that before.  He's the only one.  A true outlier and not even rare, but singular exception.  

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I will predict Kincaid will be like Jimmy Graham. He will flash early with the Bills for three years and then the league generally figures him out. Does well but not enough for a fifth year guarantee. He will then sign with another team who tries to make him a full time TE, and it does not go well.

Torrence will get a second contract from Buffalo for two reasons. Brown and Dawson will both be gone and they will have guys on rookie contracts playing at the OT spots when he is due for an extension.  He will be a top 8 OG for 5-7 years but never an All-Pro

Williams is the enigma. He might be out of the league by 2025 or he could be the Bills starting MLB by Thanksgiving.  I honestly have no idea which.

The rest will be roster bottom feeders for three years and out of the league. Shorter I guess could be that 10 year special teams gunner type but we have not seen it in preseason yet. 

[maddenboy]

19 hours ago, eball said:

Randy Moss thinks Shorter will be a HOFer.  😂

 

Randy Moss is high.

 

no matter which of the 2 Randy Mosses it is.   They musta hung out together.