Super Bowl Formula

[Mikie2times]

In the last 7 Super Bowl runs, the winning team had to overcome an average of 30.14 points when you look at the most points they allowed during that run. The lowest total was 26 in 2020. 2015 was the Broncos elite defense and the last team to win a Super Bowl without allowing more than 3 TD's during the playoffs.   

 

2022= 35 Points

2021= 27 Points

2020= 26 Points

2019= 31 Points

2018= 31 Points

2017= 33 Points

2016= 28 Points

 

When you look at EPA performance on Offense and Defense, only the Rams (offense) and the Eagles (defense) in the above 7 year sample had any games that resulted in either of the below EPA thresholds being hit. Each of them had 1 game qualify during the run they had.  In each situation the opposite side of the ball played well enough to make up the difference Rams (Offense -6.76 Defense -4.46) Eagles ( Offense 29.26 Defense 27.61)

 

An EPA (Expected Points) that is negative or worse on offense is very poor.  We only had 4 such occurrences in 49 regular season games from 2020-2022 

 

2022 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Dolphins at -2.41 other side of the ball Defense (-15.56 dominating)

2021 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 25.24 other side of the ball Defense (32.62 Turd)

2020 our lowest offensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at -3.61 other side of the ball Defense (30.34 Turd)

 

An EPA (Expected Points) at 20 or greater is very poor.  We only had 3 such occurrences in 49 regular season games from 2020-2022 

 

2022 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Bengals at 22.03 other side of the ball Offense (3.52 Turd)

2021 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 32.62 other side of the ball Offense (25.24 dominating) 

2020 our highest defensive EPA in the playoff came against the Chiefs at 30.34 other side of the ball Offense (-3.61 Turd)

 

When you look at the Super Bowl teams one thing becomes really obvious. Every year they had to have at least one game in which the offense had to carry it or they had to manufacture points. They also had to avoid the catastrophic meltdown on either side of the ball and if they underperformed on one side they needed to be good enough to make it up on the other.

 

In most of the years you look at, at least one game existed where you would say that teams offense failed them or defense failed them. That wasn't said because the other side of the ball picked them up and nobody remembered how it all played out, just that it did. VERY similar to how the narrative on this team wasn't about our defense being awful in the playoffs after 2021 year, when in fact it was the most awful according to EPA of all the awful in that game. The offense erased that thought in most of us. Just like the defense erased that thought about the offense in our divisional game against the Ravens. All we remembered is we won. Again the next year in our home game against Miami, with a -15 defensive EPA. 

 

This isn't just about our defense. This is about the team collectively being good enough to pick each other up, to avoid the meltdown. Which thus far has not happened on both sides of the ball outside 2021. We can't allow more than about a 15 EPA on defense to have a shot. Not unless Josh goes off. But for those that think the path would most likely be to hold our our opponents under 3 TD's for an entire playoff run? That isn't going to happen.  

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Nextmanup]

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

10 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

The offense erased that thought in most of us. Just like the defense erased that thought about the offense in our divisional game against the Ravens. All we remembered is we won.

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

Edited June 22, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[Success]

Do.  Or do not.  There is no try.

                                 - Yoda

 

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

I think I need the Cliff’s Notes version…😉

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

 

Those who stick with it get a headache? 

[GoBills808]

44 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

 

 

Kind of disagree and I'll use the Bengals as an example

 

Over the last 3 years both the Bills and the Bengals have played 7 postseason games, largely against common opponents 

 

In SIX OUT OF SEVEN of those games the Bengals defense HELD their opponents to under 24 points, and the 7th game was at exactly 24.

 

The Bills defense by contrast has ALLOWED 24 or more points in FIVE OUT OF SEVEN playoff games.

[Mikie2times]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

I rambled....

 

• We will have to overcome 30 points in the playoffs to win a Super Bowl (more likely than not)
• The narrative on whose fault it is when we have to drop that 30 will likely come down to how the offense plays
• We can't implode on either side of the ball, which we have on both sides in all but 2021
• As much as people blame the defense, the offense should not be getting a pass either 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

The Bills defense by contrast has ALLOWED 24 or more points in FIVE OUT OF SEVEN playoff games.

If the Bills defense got the expected results from the team with the highest payroll and the biggest draft investment in defense, along with a defensive guru for coach then things would have been fine. Its not that the Bills focused too much on defense. The problem is the piss poor ROI the Bills have had on defense. The Bills have had a very good ROI on offense. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I rambled....

 

• We will have to overcome 30 points in the playoffs to win a Super Bowl (more likely than not)
• The narrative on whose fault it is when we have to drop that 30 will likely come down to how the offense plays
• We can't implode on either side of the ball, which we have on both sides in all but 2021
• As much as people blame the defense, the offense should not be getting a pass either 

Much better! A+
😁

[LABILLBACKER]

16 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I think I need the Cliff’s Notes version…😉

Mikie said there'd be no math.

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Kind of disagree and I'll use the Bengals as an example

 

Over the last 3 years both the Bills and the Bengals have played 7 postseason games, largely against common opponents 

 

In SIX OUT OF SEVEN of those games the Bengals defense HELD their opponents to under 24 points, and the 7th game was at exactly 24.

 

The Bills defense by contrast has ALLOWED 24 or more points in FIVE OUT OF SEVEN playoff games.

They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs and won by 3 and 23 to the Rams and lost by 3. Then 23 to the Chiefs the next year and lost by 3. If anything, I think you're making the argument that they haven't been able to score enough. 

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Much better! A+
😁

My work emails suck 😂

Edited June 22, 2023 by Mikie2times

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, Chaos said:

If the Bills defense got the expected results from the team with the highest payroll and the biggest draft investment in defense, along with a defensive guru for coach then things would have been fine. Its not that the Bills focused too much on defense. The problem is the piss poor ROI the Bills have had on defense. The Bills have had a very good ROI on offense. 

Only in the playoffs though

 

Which is why people who refuse to even acknowledge that (defensive) coaching might be the issue have to marry excellent regular season results w objectively bad postseason results 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

They allowed 24 points to the Chiefs in and won by 3 and 23 to the Rams and lost by 3. Then 23 to the Chiefs the next year and lost by 3. If anything, I think you're making the argument that they haven't been able to score enough. 

My work emails suck 😂

I am absolutely making that argument, the context being that a decent defense in the playoffs can support an offense that doesn't blow people away like Burrow and the Bengals

 

EDIT- I realize this is unclear; the intent is to say Burrow and the Bengals offense DO NOT blow teams out

Edited June 22, 2023 by GoBills808

[Mikie2times]

30 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

I asked ChatGPT to change the post a little 

 

Gentlemen and fellow enthusiasts of the game,

 

I beseech your attention as I present my findings on the Super Bowl endeavors of the past septenary. A revelation of utmost import has emerged - the delicate balance betwixt offense and defense holds the key to triumphant conquest in this grand sporting spectacle.

 

Pray, let us commence with an examination of the most points conceded during these Super Bowl escapades. The average doth tally at a daunting 30.14 points. Yet, lo and behold, the zenith of excellence was reached in 2020, wherein a mere 26 points were permitted. Recall, if you will, the Denver Broncos of 2015, their defense a paragon of mastery, the last victors to hoist the Super Bowl crown without succumbing to more than three touchdowns throughout the playoffs.

 

Now, let us delve into the profound metrics that lay afore us. I have delved deep into the Expected Points Added (EPA) performance of both the offensive and defensive factions, and I have unearthed intriguing patterns that demand elucidation. Only two teams in these bygone years exceeded the EPA thresholds: the Rams on offense and the Eagles on defense. However, what doth bewilder is the remarkable occurrence when one side faltered, the other rose valiantly to the fore, compensating for their comrades' lackluster showing. Such a symphony of resilience showcases the essence of interdependent support during times of tribulation.

 

Yet, I must draw your attention to the plight of the EPA, for a negative or feeble offensive EPA doth signal dire straits. To mine astonishment, in the span of 49 regular season encounters from 2020 to 2022, our team hath languished in such wretchedness on but four occasions. These rare moments were mollified by the resplendent exhibitions of our stalwart defense, who steadfastly rectified any offensive frailties.

 

Likewise, a defensive EPA amounting to 20 or more is deemed lamentable. Fret not, for our team hath partaken in such ignominy but thrice in these bygone years. Marvelous it is to perceive that, when our defense stumbled, our offense delivered veritable masterstrokes, surmounting all odds and transcending adversity.

What tidings doth this portend for our team's audacious quest for Super Bowl supremacy?

 

Verily, the collective strength of our entire ensemble is paramount. We must uplift one another, eschew catastrophic misadventures, and ensure that both factions achieve exaltation. It is essential to note that, barring a solitary year of aberration, our defense hath remained stalwart. Nonetheless, to vie for the Super Bowl with genuine prospects, we must restrict our defense from amassing an EPA exceeding 15, lest our prodigious quarterback, Josh Allen, work prodigious wonders.

 

Though the notion of constraining our adversaries to fewer than three touchdowns throughout an entire playoff odyssey may prove fantastical, we must strive to maintain a delicate equilibrium and shield both sides from grievous foibles. History doth impart wisdom, revealing that triumphant Super Bowl assemblages have weathered encounters wherein one faction bore the burden or resorted to unconventional stratagems for amassing points. Their triumphs hinged upon overcoming such arduous tribulations, aided by the unyielding support of their compatriots.

 

Let us rally with unbridled ardor behind our cherished team as they strive for Super Bowl glory, cognizant that a harmonious and mutually supportive performance shall forge the path to hallowed triumph. Together, let us script indelible chapters on this voyage toward gridiron supremacy!

 

I eagerly await your cogitations upon these revelations. How, pray tell,

[Chaos]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Only in the playoffs though

 

Which is why people who refuse to even acknowledge that (defensive) coaching might be the issue have to marry excellent regular season results w objectively bad postseason results 

 

 

I am absolutely making that argument, the context being that a decent defense in the playoffs can support an offense that doesn't blow people away like Burrow and the Bengals

 

EDIT- I realize this is unclear; the intent is to say Burrow and the Bengals offense DO NOT blow teams out

14/32 teams make the playoffs. The second season is what really matters.  The Bills "drought" is an anomaly that is meaningless statistically. but people keep pointing to it that any changes will likely result in another drought. 

[scuba guy]

Ok so the cliff note version is to score more points than your opponent.

 

Isn't that the same as

Hockey

Baseball

Basketball 

Kricket 

Soccer

Field hockey 

Lacrosse 

Opposite for track and cross country low always wins 🏆.

 

 

All your data points are great but any given Sunday and the refs play a role. Plus know sports betting.

 

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

 

Conclusion: Even the best defenses go bye-bye in the playoffs. Offense wins championships.

[WyoAZBillfan]

How’d that work for the Bengals a couple years back? I forget due. Ty in advance. 99 FTW? 

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I asked ChatGPT to change the post a little 

 

Gentlemen and fellow enthusiasts of the game,

 

I beseech your attention as I present my findings on the Super Bowl endeavors of the past septenary. A revelation of utmost import has emerged - the delicate balance betwixt offense and defense holds the key to triumphant conquest in this grand sporting spectacle.

 

Pray, let us commence with an examination of the most points conceded during these Super Bowl escapades. The average doth tally at a daunting 30.14 points. Yet, lo and behold, the zenith of excellence was reached in 2020, wherein a mere 26 points were permitted. Recall, if you will, the Denver Broncos of 2015, their defense a paragon of mastery, the last victors to hoist the Super Bowl crown without succumbing to more than three touchdowns throughout the playoffs.

 

Now, let us delve into the profound metrics that lay afore us. I have delved deep into the Expected Points Added (EPA) performance of both the offensive and defensive factions, and I have unearthed intriguing patterns that demand elucidation. Only two teams in these bygone years exceeded the EPA thresholds: the Rams on offense and the Eagles on defense. However, what doth bewilder is the remarkable occurrence when one side faltered, the other rose valiantly to the fore, compensating for their comrades' lackluster showing. Such a symphony of resilience showcases the essence of interdependent support during times of tribulation.

 

Yet, I must draw your attention to the plight of the EPA, for a negative or feeble offensive EPA doth signal dire straits. To mine astonishment, in the span of 49 regular season encounters from 2020 to 2022, our team hath languished in such wretchedness on but four occasions. These rare moments were mollified by the resplendent exhibitions of our stalwart defense, who steadfastly rectified any offensive frailties.

 

Likewise, a defensive EPA amounting to 20 or more is deemed lamentable. Fret not, for our team hath partaken in such ignominy but thrice in these bygone years. Marvelous it is to perceive that, when our defense stumbled, our offense delivered veritable masterstrokes, surmounting all odds and transcending adversity.

What tidings doth this portend for our team's audacious quest for Super Bowl supremacy?

 

Verily, the collective strength of our entire ensemble is paramount. We must uplift one another, eschew catastrophic misadventures, and ensure that both factions achieve exaltation. It is essential to note that, barring a solitary year of aberration, our defense hath remained stalwart. Nonetheless, to vie for the Super Bowl with genuine prospects, we must restrict our defense from amassing an EPA exceeding 15, lest our prodigious quarterback, Josh Allen, work prodigious wonders.

 

Though the notion of constraining our adversaries to fewer than three touchdowns throughout an entire playoff odyssey may prove fantastical, we must strive to maintain a delicate equilibrium and shield both sides from grievous foibles. History doth impart wisdom, revealing that triumphant Super Bowl assemblages have weathered encounters wherein one faction bore the burden or resorted to unconventional stratagems for amassing points. Their triumphs hinged upon overcoming such arduous tribulations, aided by the unyielding support of their compatriots.

 

Let us rally with unbridled ardor behind our cherished team as they strive for Super Bowl glory, cognizant that a harmonious and mutually supportive performance shall forge the path to hallowed triumph. Together, let us script indelible chapters on this voyage toward gridiron supremacy!

 

I eagerly await your cogitations upon these revelations. How, pray tell,

Where do you find the time to write these letters? You have to be retired. Right? 

[Mikie2times]

32 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Where do you find the time to write these letters? You have to be retired. Right? 

SDS commissioned me to write overly complicated Bills content in different historical eras......

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Dopey]

31 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

SDS commissioned me to write overly complicated Bills content in different historical eras......

 

 

I want that gig when I retire. 

[billsfan89]

Ideally you have an epic three phase team that crushes everyone. But with the cap and the general decisions making that means you likely have to make some cuts on areas of the roster. 
 

The best way to build a consistent contender is likely to once you find the stud QB build out an epic offense and good ST unit and then just try to have an average defense. 
 

Making some cuts on defense so your stud QB can have good weapons and protection is likely the best thing you can do.

[ProcessTruster]

11 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

 

 

Agreed, but Beane wants to keep the team competitive for multiple years, not do a "Rams" and win one SB and then suck for 10 years, so there is a balance.  

[Airseven]

11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

I stopped reading at “EPA.” But I think the point is that it’s not realistic in today’s game to expect to win a championship by featuring a shut down defense.

[mabden]

13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

This thread makes my head hurt. Sounds like someone watched ‘Money Ball’ a few too many times. (I love that movie!)

 

Is there supposed to be a conclusion drawn? 

 

In order to win in the playoffs (and SB),  if the Defense sucks, the Offense must to bail them out.  If the Offense sucks, the Defense must bail them out.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, mabden said:

 

In order to win in the playoffs (and SB),  if the Defense sucks, the Offense must to bail them out.  If the Offense sucks, the Defense must bail them out.

Close…but I think the point was that historically (at least recently anyway) the defense is going to ‘suck’. 

[Xwnyer]

13 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I think I need the Cliff’s Notes version…😉

if our team outscores their team we win!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Score more than the other guy.

[ExWNYer]

14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I think I need the Cliff’s Notes version…😉

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Start winning late in the season and don’t stop. 

[JaCrispy]

41 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

 

Lol…this is great! 🤣

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

This isn't just about our defense. This is about the team collectively being good enough to pick each other up, to avoid the meltdown. Which thus far has not happened on both sides of the ball outside 2021. We can't allow more than about a 15 EPA on defense to have a shot. Not unless Josh goes off. But for those that think the path would most likely be to hold our our opponents under 3 TD's for an entire playoff run? That isn't going to happen.  

 

Nice post!  Thanks for taking the time to do all that.  

 

BTW, that ChatGPT is hilarious.  How did you ask it to do it?  ... in what style that is?  

 

Regarding your concluding statement above, and to add to it, it simply comes down to not underachieving.  It's one thing when you go play a game, play your best, and either lose to a team that happened to be on fire or better than you, it's quite another to play worse than you did on average during the season on one or both sides.  

 

Going through our 9 playoff games under McD: 

 

2017:   D played well, O massively underachieved to season worst standard. 

 

2019:  Given the Texans' very average-at-best offensive and defensive rankings, both units underachieved albeit only marginally.  

 

2020 Colts:  PAR 

2020 Ravens:  D overachieved, O underachieved 

2020 Chiefs:  O underachieved marginally, D underachieved 

 

2021 Pats:  O overachieved, D PAR to marginally overachieved 

2021 Chiefs:  O overachieved, D underachieved 

 

2022 Fins:  O PAR to overachieved, D massively underachieved 

2022 Bengals:  O massively underachieved, D underachieved.  

 

When we consider that our defense was ranked 1st or 2nd in 2022, 2021, and 2019, and that our offense was ranked 2nd or 3rd in 2020 - 2022 that renders it even less impressive.  

 

At the end of the day, as you stated and implied otherwise, we've simply not gotten anywhere near the most from this team come playoff time in six seasons and 9 playoff games with the sole exception of the Pats' Wild-Card game.  Most people would attribute that kind of sustained underachievement to coaching, not the talent on the team.  The only ones that don't appear to be a subset of Bills fans.  

 

 

[without a drought]

Make the playoffs.

 

Win all of your playoff games.

 

Pretty simple formula.

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, without a drought said:

Make the playoffs.

 

Win all of your playoff games.

 

Pretty simple formula.

Oh! I just sent this information over to One Bills Drive.  Hopefully this is what puts us over the top.

[John from Riverside]

I just want them to be

Balanced

Consistent

 

 

[MJS]

On 6/21/2023 at 6:27 PM, Nextmanup said:

The is the long, data backed way of saying what I've said for years: at some point in the playoffs, you are going to have to have an elite offense and QB who can outgun another elite offense.

 

If you don't that capability, forget it, with a few exceptions.

 

This is why I would be happy with league avg. on D and build the most ungodly, feared offense the league has ever seen.

 

Beane's adjustments this year, in contrast, have been minor.

Actually, he said that you have games where the offense has to overcome bad defense, and where defense has to overcome bad offense. You need to have both, according to the OP.

[MJS]

14 hours ago, Airseven said:

I stopped reading at “EPA.” But I think the point is that it’s not realistic in today’s game to expect to win a championship by featuring a shut down defense.

That's not the conclusion.

[WhoTom]

On 6/21/2023 at 7:05 PM, JaCrispy said:

I think I need the Cliff’s Notes version…😉

 

 

Offense wins championships.