Josh Allen and the passing offense

[Hermes]

After the season ended it appears that Brandon Beane asked himself how can I make this team better; and decided that we're going to live and die by our offense. (You only need to stop them once if they can't stop you at all)

 

With 2 projected o-line upgrades, an upgrade to the 3rd receiving option, and more speed and size added to the wide receiver room. The Bills are looking in prime position to do improve what was last year a top 5 offense.

 

With that said, the aforementioned facts got me thinking about how the Bills offense projects out this year, statistically speaking.

Based on the past few season averages and some (probably incorrect) projections on my part, the floor for Josh Allen is set at 5,000 yards passing and ~50 tds. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what to think of the Bills ground game this year so I'm not going to touch on that.

 

 

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       60     1000     8

Kincaid    40     400      5

Shakir      40     500      3

Knox        50     500      8

Cook        25     200      5

Shorter    10      150      1

Harty        30     450     4

Sherfield  15      200     2

Hines        10      85       1

Morris       10      115      1

 

Allen

450 5000 48

 

 

 

 

 

(P.S. A huge thanks to the resident draft experts here on TSW. I love reading all of your insight and getting to know the prospects better through your work.)

Edited May 2, 2023 by Hermes

[ddaryl]

If the OL is truly improved 

If Kincaid fills the role that Beasley use to do for us before the injury 

and If Kincaid turns out to be what we are hoping then I forsee Kincaid being the 2nd best receiver on the team this year and Allen will pushing his own personal best 

But Have to see it hapening in action 



 

Edited May 2, 2023 by ddaryl

[StHustle]

I believe we actually start running the ball with decent consistency. I don't see Josh having his most prolific passing year but do expect higher efficiency.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think Allen will throw for a few less TDs in the red zone this year putting him in that 36-40 range. I see the Bills being able to run inside the 5 a bit more than in years past.

 

Yardage wise...went low again. The 4000-4500 range. We do traditionally play in some crud weather and that takes a toll on final passing numbers.

 

Of course Josh will break a passing record. A little loose with the specifics (Team record, NFL record) so he'll hit some kind of milestone.

[DieHardBillsFan]

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       55       700      7

Kincaid    60      650       7

Shakir      35      400       4

Knox        55      500       7

Cook        25      200       3

Shorter    20      250       2

Harty        30     400       4

Sherfield  25      300      3

Hines        20      200      2

Morris       10       100      1

 

Allen        450   5100   50

 

Fun exercise! Here is my take. 

My hope is that Allen will become more comfortable with checkdown passes which will have a larger result for TEs and RBs and more yards in the end with less QB runs.

[Nephilim17]

I'd be stunned if Shakir gets more yards than Kincaid.

[Mynamemike]

1 hour ago, Hermes said:

After the season ended it appears that Brandon Beane asked himself how can I make this team better; and decided that we're going to live and die by our offense. (You only need to stop them once if they can't stop you at all)

 

With 2 projected o-line upgrades, an upgrade to the 3rd receiving option, and more speed and size added to the wide receiver room. The Bills are looking in prime position to do improve what was last year a top 5 offense.

 

With that said, the aforementioned facts got me thinking about how the Bills offense projects out this year, statistically speaking.

Based on the past few season averages and some (probably incorrect) projections on my part, the floor for Josh Allen is set at 5,000 yards passing and ~50 tds. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what to think of the Bills ground game this year so I'm not going to touch on that.

 

 

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       60     1000     8

Kincaid    40     400      5

Shakir      40     500      3

Knox        50     500      8

Cook        25     200      5

Shorter    10      150      1

Harty        30     450     4

Sherfield  15      200     2

Hines        10      85       1

Morris       10      115      1

 

Allen

450 5000 48

 

 

 

 

 

(P.S. A huge thanks to the resident draft experts here on TSW. I love reading all of your insight and getting to know the prospects better through your work.)

Give me a similar stat line from Josh as last year with less turnovers and an improved running game and I feel confident going into the playoffs next year.  
 

if Josh has to go play hero ball again all year we’re out early in the playoffs again imo.  
 

it feels like it’s been a quiet offseason but I’m really excited to see how things shake out.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I’m taking all the low’s there.

 

I don’t think the offense is trending towards breaking pass records. 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

If the OL is truly improved 

If Kincaid fills the role that Beasley use to do for us before the injury 

and If Kincaid turns out to be what we are hoping then I forsee Kincaid being the 2nd best receiver on the team this year and Allen will pushing his own personal best 

But Have to see it hapening in action 
 

this is high expectations, and I like it! 

[John from Riverside]

I actually wonder if there’s going to be a little bit of a leveling out balance of Offats given what we have seen this off-season by that I mean running the ball
 

I know that everyone would like to see Josh Allen’s got a 400 yard games passing and him putting up three scores a game

 

I would like to see 100 yard rusher every game that’s not Josh Allen, even if it meant a dip in his passing yards in passing touchdowns if it was replaced with rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, I would be totally happy, and I wouldn’t fault Josh Allen for that at all because it will only lengthen his career

[PBF81]

So much depends upon Dorsey. 

[ddaryl]

13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’m taking all the low’s there.

 

I don’t think the offense is trending towards breaking pass records. 

 

 

I did too ironically

 

the numbers in the poll are way to hopeful, anything above the low numbers is really impressive. Just hitting the low numbers is still a rock solid season and it also depends on what others bring up. Do we have a more consistent run game, does Allen feel more comfortable taking the underneath stuff to keep the chains moving 

[schoolhouserock]

Need an additional category for fewer than 35 TDs.

[papazoid]

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, Mynamemike said:

Give me a similar stat line from Josh as last year with less turnovers and an improved running game and I feel confident going into the playoffs next year.  
 

if Josh has to go play hero ball again all year we’re out early in the playoffs again imo.  
 

it feels like it’s been a quiet offseason but I’m really excited to see how things shake out.  

 

I wouldn't mind that one bit. I think the focus was to make Josh's life easier and take pressure off his legs.  Now comes the worst part of the off-season 

3 minutes ago, papazoid said:

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

I just added more options for all of the cowards out there 😉

[Virgil]

I hope he takes a step back in both passing yards and touchdowns. 
 

We have a tough schedule this year.  I want to see our defense step up and I want to see a better run game.  It can’t be the Allen show.  
 

If he does break those passing records, then we are playing keep up with the score and we are relying on him too much 

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, papazoid said:

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

Just being able to close out games by predominantly running the ball would be a huge plus for this team. 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think Allen will throw for a few less TDs in the red zone this year putting him in that 36-40 range. I see the Bills being able to run inside the 5 a bit more than in years past.

 

Yardage wise...went low again. The 4000-4500 range. We do traditionally play in some crud weather and that takes a toll on final passing numbers.

 

Of course Josh will break a passing record. A little loose with the specifics (Team record, NFL record) so he'll hit some kind of milestone.

You think he will decrease his red zone touchdowns to stay within a range he has barely hit the last 3 years (and missed last year)?

 

Allen has 37, 36 and 35 passing TDs the last 3 years

[buffalo2218]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'd be stunned if Shakir gets more yards than Kincaid.

Shakir did pretty well last year as a rookie and that gives him leg up on Kincaid, it wouldn't be that surprising if he ups his game this year

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       55       700      7

Kincaid    60      650       7

Shakir      35      400       4

Knox        55      500       7

Cook        25      200       3

Shorter    20      250       2

Harty        30     400       4

Sherfield  25      300      3

Hines        20      200      2

Morris       10       100      1

 

Allen        450   5100   50

 

Fun exercise! Here is my take. 

My hope is that Allen will become more comfortable with checkdown passes which will have a larger result for TEs and RBs and more yards in the end with less QB runs.

I like this one, but I would adjust Knox to 600-650, and lower Shakir to 300.  Don’t forget Knox had to be a bit distracted for the first half of the year given the sudden death of his brother.  That would mess anyone up and happened right at the beginning of the year.  The prior year he had 9 passing TD’s.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I feel like Allen will start breaking (edit:passing) records in his later years. Forgive me if someone mentioned this, but his rushing TDs/yards are going to eat at his passing ones every year until he slows down (that’s not happening anytime soon despite what the coaches want.) Now he can definitely break a total TD record! 

Edited May 2, 2023 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Simon Says]

You have to consider Allen could miss a game or two or...possibly sit out when they clinch. 

Diggs has been durable and might be due for an injury.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Herb Nightly

[Hermes]

29 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I hope he takes a step back in both passing yards and touchdowns. 
 

We have a tough schedule this year.  I want to see our defense step up and I want to see a better run game.  It can’t be the Allen show.  
 

If he does break those passing records, then we are playing keep up with the score and we are relying on him too much 

 

I don't know man. It's hard to lose games when you score 30+ points. The only thing the Bills did to bolster the run game was add some RBs. All of the guards they added tend to pass block better than run block and the other top players they were linked to were all pass catching options. The Bills are looking to put points on the board RBs and run game be damned!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Like others, I kind of see the Bills offense pulling back some, ala 2019. 

 

Until we see the OC actually commit to the run game, it's not a reality, but I have never bought that Cook will be the dominant ball carrier, stepping into the starting role. We've never seen that from McDermott. The smaller, faster, younger back has always been chained to a more grizzled, physical veteran. 

 

Now with Harris and Murray added to Cook, if McDermott puts his thumb on Dorsey, I can see the run game becoming more of a steady diet in this offense. Both those guys are only here on 1-year deals, but that's never stopped the Bills from splitting carries in half (Gore-Singletary), (Singletary, Moss), (Singletary, Cook). 

 

At the same time, I do think the Bills will look to be more efficient on offense. I think the average depth of target will come down. I do expect Kincaid, Shakir to be a bigger part of working the middle of the field, with less dependence on Gabe Davis vertically. 

 

The Bills didn't lean into Josh Allen's desire to throw deep this off-season. Kincaid, Sherfield and Harty profile to me as targets closer to the LOS, with only Shorter a smarter bet to play the occasional Kumerow deep throw. 

 

I think they are going to dial Allen back some and look to increase efficiency. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

23 minutes ago, arcane said:

You think he will decrease his red zone touchdowns to stay within a range he has barely hit the last 3 years (and missed last year)?

 

Allen has 37, 36 and 35 passing TDs the last 3 years

Yes. Considering that up to this point I expected a healthy Allen to exceed those TD numbers in the 40-45 TD range. I believe that the presence of a competent goal line run game will drop him back to the 35-40 range.

 

[ColoradoBills]

While it's not a true "passing record", Josh will be the first to throw, run and catch a TD in the SB.

He will have a few hundred yards more passing this year with about the same amount of TDs.

[Nephilim17]

40 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Shakir did pretty well last year as a rookie and that gives him leg up on Kincaid, it wouldn't be that surprising if he ups his game this year

I wouldn't hate it if played out like that if it was more Shakir impressing rather than Kincaid underwhelming. I just think Kincaid has a much higher ceiling and with his college production he's not that far from realizing it at the NFL level. I could be wrong but that's my thinking. 

[AuntieEm]

2 hours ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       55       700      7

Kincaid    60      650       7

Shakir      35      400       4

Knox        55      500       7

Cook        25      200       3

Shorter    20      250       2

Harty        30     400       4

Sherfield  25      300      3

Hines        20      200      2

Morris       10       100      1

 

Allen        450   5100   50

 

Fun exercise! Here is my take. 

My hope is that Allen will become more comfortable with checkdown passes which will have a larger result for TEs and RBs and more yards in the end with less QB runs.

 

Yes, he may no longer rack up yards via in air distances but he will offset that easily with his checkdowns to 'Swole' Beasley and any rbs that are active any given game.  I think that one record he could break, qbs yac totals of his receivers.  I don't even know if they keep track of this as Yac is a receiver record.  

 

Once the opponents try to shut down his short game that will open up all the longer throws that Josh can see when a defender is beaten for those easy yards as well.  The perfect game vs Patriots is an example of what's possible with a balanced Josh while still having his gunslinger elements the teams have to respect.  

 

In turn the added benefit of his perfecting the short game is that the oline improvements will be amplified as Josh still is one of the better qbs under pressure. So his oline being upgraded  and having bigger stronger elements.

 

'Cyborg' is gonna be a big upgrade and what I liked best reading some reports on him was that he studies film to understand the way players play against him.  I think the pro game is gonna be an easy transition for him as a result and that will be a big reason opponents will find it hard to get Josh and the boys off the field.    

 

 Guess another record I expect Josh to break then is  and it will be the NFL record for avg TOP per game by QB.  I wouldn't mind them pulling Josh from some games when he does have a turnover but in 4Q the team has a comfortable margin of points that it is unlikely the opponent will mount a comeback.  If the offense has not been stopped you leave Josh in for the records he is capable of.

 

I could think of many possibilities because Josh has so many strengths and if he learns to channel his chaotic play to a icy calculating attack then no one stopping the guys from the frozen tundra of western NY.  

 

 

 

 

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I hope he takes a step back in both passing yards and touchdowns. 
 

We have a tough schedule this year.  I want to see our defense step up and I want to see a better run game.  It can’t be the Allen show.  
 

If he does break those passing records, then we are playing keep up with the score and we are relying on him too much 

 

If he breaks those passing records because he's doing too much then I'll start to question if we need to start looking for a new franchisè qb.  I want the Bills as a team to succeed.  Yes that will need players to be stars and QBs are top dogs in the top teams.  But it still is a team game and no one player can do it alone.  Even Brady didn't get it done a couple of times.  

 

However, if he embraces the balanced attack his teammates can inflate his passing yards because of their Rac.  So while I am fine with him being way down in passing and tds, I don't know that we do see a slide.  I think we just see them created with total offense not the Josh Allen Show.

 

An added benefit is you get a balanced attack the different units might not break down as easily via injuries as they can vary the exposure for bruised players that can use extra time to heal.  Perfect way to ease in younger players without needing them to be day one starters.  And best FA vets will be happy to sign short term deals that gives Beane more flexibility in drafting talent as well as some cap management I'm thinking. 

 

Keep reinforcing the trenches and we can really see a dominant record breaking JA17 in future years.

 

[Hermes]

27 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

Yes, he may no longer rack up yards via in air distances but he will offset that easily with his checkdowns to 'Swole' Beasley and any rbs that are active any given game.  I think that one record he could break, qbs yac totals of his receivers.  I don't even know if they keep track of this as Yac is a receiver record.  

 

Once the opponents try to shut down his short game that will open up all the longer throws that Josh can see when a defender is beaten for those easy yards as well.  The perfect game vs Patriots is an example of what's possible with a balanced Josh while still having his gunslinger elements the teams have to respect.  

 

In turn the added benefit of his perfecting the short game is that the oline improvements will be amplified as Josh still is one of the better qbs under pressure. So his oline being upgraded  and having bigger stronger elements.

 

'Cyborg' is gonna be a big upgrade and what I liked best reading some reports on him was that he studies film to understand the way players play against him.  I think the pro game is gonna be an easy transition for him as a result and that will be a big reason opponents will find it hard to get Josh and the boys off the field.    

 

 Guess another record I expect Josh to break then is  and it will be the NFL record for avg TOP per game by QB.  I wouldn't mind them pulling Josh from some games when he does have a turnover but in 4Q the team has a comfortable margin of points that it is unlikely the opponent will mount a comeback.  If the offense has not been stopped you leave Josh in for the records he is capable of.

 

I could think of many possibilities because Josh has so many strengths and if he learns to channel his chaotic play to a icy calculating attack then no one stopping the guys from the frozen tundra of western NY.  

 

 

 

 

Nothing the Bills did this off-season has given any indication they want to pass less.  Like you said if Josh can take what the defense is giving him, and with the added weapons and blocking help, the sky is the limit for the Bills offense.

 

Not to mention Allen had to play through a ucl injury for the second half of the season so lasts years stats are lower than they potentially could have been.  With a worse surrounding cast

Edited May 2, 2023 by Hermes

[AuntieEm]

6 minutes ago, Hermes said:

Nothing the Bills did this off-season has given any indication they want to pass less.  Like you said if Josh can take what the defense is giving him, and with the added weapons and blocking help, the sky is the limit for the Bills offense

 

Definitely.  It is still a passing league and very unlikely to ever return to the smashmouth days.  The game is too violent for that with enough serious injuries.  Even with modern medicine advances that allow many to return from acts, mcls, etc.  Players are people after all and shouldn't be expected to suffer lifetime disabilities.   Why I hope we maybe see morse as maybe the backup center.  I would love to see him make the team to guarantee his contract, then waived to sit on PS in case he's needed due to injury of active players.  He can limit the risk of more concussions, but it still allows him to be part of the team with high playoff expectations.  Part of being a hunted team, sometimes all it takes is a key player getting injured.  PS would keep him in game ready shape should he be needed for a game or 2.  Not tossing him aside like used broken furniture, but still limiting his risk of added concussions and also contributing in developing the younger talent.  Think it also is a good look for future FA vets signing when we offer them chancecat a SB ring.  

 

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

So much depends upon Dorsey. 

This exactly. Agree 100%. 

[Solomon Grundy]

I'll submit my vote after they acquire NUK. I STILL BILLEVE

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Like others, I kind of see the Bills offense pulling back some, ala 2019. 

 

Until we see the OC actually commit to the run game, it's not a reality, but I have never bought that Cook will be the dominant ball carrier, stepping into the starting role. We've never seen that from McDermott. The smaller, faster, younger back has always been chained to a more grizzled, physical veteran. 

 

Now with Harris and Murray added to Cook, if McDermott puts his thumb on Dorsey, I can see the run game becoming more of a steady diet in this offense. Both those guys are only here on 1-year deals, but that's never stopped the Bills from splitting carries in half (Gore-Singletary), (Singletary, Moss), (Singletary, Cook). 

 

At the same time, I do think the Bills will look to be more efficient on offense. I think the average depth of target will come down. I do expect Kincaid, Shakir to be a bigger part of working the middle of the field, with less dependence on Gabe Davis vertically. 

 

The Bills didn't lean into Josh Allen's desire to throw deep this off-season. Kincaid, Sherfield and Harty profile to me as targets closer to the LOS, with only Shorter a smarter bet to play the occasional Kumerow deep throw. 

 

I think they are going to dial Allen back some and look to increase efficiency. 

You don't increase efficiency by throwing the ball less tho

 

Throwing the ball is always more efficient than running it

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, AuntieEm said:

 

Definitely.  It is still a passing league and very unlikely to ever return to the smashmouth days.  The game is too violent for that with enough serious injuries.  Even with modern medicine advances that allow many to return from acts, mcls, etc.  Players are people after all and shouldn't be expected to suffer lifetime disabilities.   Why I hope we maybe see morse as maybe the backup center.  I would love to see him make the team to guarantee his contract, then waived to sit on PS in case he's needed due to injury of active players.  He can limit the risk of more concussions, but it still allows him to be part of the team with high playoff expectations.  Part of being a hunted team, sometimes all it takes is a key player getting injured.  PS would keep him in game ready shape should he be needed for a game or 2.  Not tossing him aside like used broken furniture, but still limiting his risk of added concussions and also contributing in developing the younger talent.  Think it also is a good look for future FA vets signing when we offer them chancecat a SB ring.  

 

 

Morse understands the risk he's taking by playing.  If he took a vet min salary to do exactly what you're saying then I'm all for it.  Otherwise it's too big a waste of resources for something so insignificant to the game actually being played.  At the end of the day it's his decision whether or not he wants to take the risk and honor his contract or work on a restructure where he isn't being paid a starters wage to ride the pine.  If Bates beats him out for starting center then all bets are off and he could be traded or cut.  I don't know, never know.

32 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I'll submit my vote after they acquire NUK. I STILL BILLEVE

If they get Hopkins they're breaking all the records!

Edited May 2, 2023 by Hermes

[Malazan]

This is the first offseason where I feel this regime has committed to improving the run game which if it something that other teams have to even worry about a little bit will open up quite a bit. 

[AuntieEm]

46 minutes ago, Hermes said:

 

Morse understands the risk he's taking by playing.  If he took a vet min salary to do exactly what you're saying then I'm all for it.  Otherwise it's too big a waste of resources for something so insignificant to the game actually being played.  At the end of the day it's his decision whether or not he wants to take the risk and honor his contract or work on a restructure where he isn't being paid a starters wage to ride the pine.  If Bates beats him out for starting center then all bets are off and he could be traded or cut.  I don't know, never know.

If they get Hopkins they're breaking all the records!

 

Well I guess I assumed the pay would be not his starter pay but a reworked deal that would be around vet minimum.  It really is hard to know what each players priorities are.  Andrew Luck shocked alot of fans sacking away from the game after the endless injuries and rehab cycle  got to be too much.  

 

Also alot of the choices the players have depend upon if they actually have a any plans for after playing careers.  Easier to hang up the cleats if you know what you want to do after.

[Rockinon]

Allen will break a single game record, at least, I think. This is still predominantly a passing offense. I also think the run game will improve, which is only going to enhance the passing game, not make it take a step backwards. Just imagining Josh with time in the pocket... a very distinct possibility. Just imagine Josh having the luxury to hand off rather than pass on every play. Just imagine our new TE being effective and defenses having to choose between 2 high safeties or one.

 

The whole dynamic of the offense changed. We have a bigger, badder OL. We have bigger, badder RBs. We have a bigger, badder version of Cole Beasely moving the sticks. Perhaps one of these changes don't end up being an improvement over prior years...naw, screw it. I think these are major improvements. The offense is going to be unstoppable. That means a lot of yards. A lot of TDs. Records are coming.

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, papazoid said:

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

Under 4k in a 17 game season is less than 235 yards a game.   I don’t see Allen going for that little and the Bills winning on average.

[Airseven]

OL is still a problem. Torrence is a nice addition and hopefully he pans out. Otherwise it’s the same group with weak tackles. McGovern is not an upgrade. Allen will get rattled once again.