RD 5, Pick 150: WR Justin Shorter, Florida

[Sierra Foothills]

@SirAndrew

 

Sorry if my grumpiness targeted you.

 

It's a MAJOR pet peeve of mine that people will simply read something and then parrot it without question.

 

But moreso, all of these posts refuting his "poor hands" came BEFORE you posted in this topic:

 

20 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

A 5.5% drop rate would suggest otherwise.

 

By comparison our #2 receiver had a drop rate of 8.7% this past season.

 

 

20 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

21 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Big Body with nice hands 
 

smooth in transitions and smooth running. Gears down going into breaks and takes a bit coming out of them. Massive Questions on ability to separate. 
 

contested catch and 50/50 ball WR. He wins those most times. Decent speed for size. 
 

plays to his size. Will use his body to shield defenders good at finding holes in Zones 

 

my grade was 6th rounder with biggest thing I have written alot can he separate. questions. 
 

think a more athletic Kumerow here. I have better six speed candidates on my list. 

 

21 hours ago, Bigvinny said:

Great hands 5.5% drop rate (6 drops on 177 targets)

 

20 hours ago, jkeerie said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/top-five-things-to-know-about-new-buffalo-bills-wr-justin-shorter

 

I don't understand the drops.  According to the above, he dropped only one time on 114 targets over the last two years.

 

20 hours ago, SoMAn said:

I’m seeing conflicting info. I’ve read there’s a history of drops (the last thing the Bills need), but as a write this, the Bills official website comes on saying he has ‘reliable hands’ with only a single drop in 114 targets. 

 

20 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

nope

 

per Brugler and the Beast (extract from the Athletic)

 

110 career reception with 6 drops - none this season - missed 3 games due to hamstring injury and opted-out of bowl game, all of which pissed the Florida fans off so that ain't right////

 

Led team in receptions in 2022 (but not 2023)...yards per reception improved over each of his seasons...

 

STRENGTHS: Impressive size/speed athlete … has the arm length that makes some offensive tackles jealous … linear speed to close cushion and force cornerbacks to respect his acceleration … dangerous in the deep third of the field … tracks the ball naturally and adjusts in flight to high-point the football … stabs with focus away from his body (only one registered drop over the 114 combined targets his junior and senior seasons) … ranked No. 2 in the SEC in yards per reception in 2022 (behind only his teammate Ryan Pearsall) … physical stature helps him overwhelm receivers as a blocker … has experience as a gunner on special teams.

 

WEAKNESSES: Tightly wound, and some of the branches of his route tree are stiffer than others … leggy in and out of breaks, causing him to linger or round off his patterns … comes off the line tall and gives defenders a large target to press … doesn’t consistently use his body to shield or frame defenders downfield … has never been known as a YAC threat over his career … clear your schedule if trying to find forced missed tackles on his tape … disappointing career production and never reached 600 yards receiving in a single season in his five years in college.

 

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Florida, Shorter was the X receiver in head coach Billy Napier’s offense. One look at him and there is no mystery why he had more stars as a high school recruit than a clear-night sky, but he struggled to find his footing at Penn State and was more of a splashy weapon over his three years at Florida. Shorter has striking speed for his size and is at his best when he can stack coverage and create a vertical runway (75.9 percent of his 2022 catches resulted in a first down or touchdown). Though he provides a large strike zone for his quarterback, his contested catch success should be higher with his size advantage. Overall, Shorter is a one-speed runner with predictable route running, but his height/weight/speed mix is uncommon, and his ball-winning potential will tantalize NFL teams. His fit as a back-end-of-the-roster receiver makes him worth the risk

 

I always admonish people here (whether or not I should) to read more and post less... and to read through topics to avoid posting redundantly, especially when it's bad information.

 

Another example in this topic is that one person mistakenly mentioned that Chad Hall is the Bills WR Coach... and then he's corrected 6 times... Of course the corrections were made with good intentions but still... read first, write second.

 

I realize I should let it go but like everyone else, I'm a work in progress... which is to say, I'm trying.

 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

21 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Big Body with nice hands 

Most of the wives, female TSW members, and Sherlock Holmes would prefer 'nice body with big hands'...

*
🤔

[maddenboy]

12 hours ago, maddenboy said:

I predict that Shorter will not make the team.

 

He is not a hands catcher.  Not at all.   Its like he brings every ball into his stomach.  Even on Slants, he will fall/slide down in order to be in position to catch it where he is comfortable catching it.   In his mid-section.

 

beyond that, there is nothing athletic about him at all.   He moves like a slow TE3. 

 

 

furthermore, it sounds like (from the other thread about UDFA) that that 6'6" receiver who we got as UDFA on a 3 year deal is the new special teams gunner.

 

dont see where Shorter will fit. 

 

He's only a 5th round draft pick.  Who as was mentioned upthread, is "a big receiver who is not good at football."

 

Perhaps I can dilute it by saying "Shorter will not see the field" but that's only if McBeane wanna try to salvage value by telling themselves he will get better,  so they keep him as a perpetual game-day inactive player.

 

But it wont take 4 years, like it did for Edmunds.

[The Frankish Reich]

22 hours ago, MPL said:

He’s our new Duke Williams. 

We need to get our chronology straight. Hodgins was the new Duke. Shorter is the new Hodgins. 

[Sierra Foothills]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We need to get our chronology straight. Hodgins was the new Duke. Shorter is the new Hodgins. 

 

And... Shavers... is the new Shorter?

 

 

[Roundybout]

7 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

And... Shavers... is the new Shorter?

 

 

 

We need a flow chart for this. I think this all starts with James Hardy. 

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

furthermore, it sounds like (from the other thread about UDFA) that that 6'6" receiver who we got as UDFA on a 3 year deal is the new special teams gunner.

 

dont see where Shorter will fit. 

 

He's only a 5th round draft pick.  Who as was mentioned upthread, is "a big receiver who is not good at football."

 

Perhaps I can dilute it by saying "Shorter will not see the field" but that's only if McBeane wanna try to salvage value by telling themselves he will get better,  so they keep him as a perpetual game-day inactive player.

 

But it wont take 4 years, like it did for Edmunds.

 

If they keep 7 WRs instead of 6 like (at least to start) last year and 3 RBs instead of 4, then it's very doable.  You have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Sherfield, Harty, and Shorter, and Shavers would replace Jones who was just a ST'er.

 

Edit:  But if they get DHop...

Edited April 30, 2023 by Doc

[Sierra Foothills]

17 minutes ago, Doc said:

If they keep 7 WRs instead of 6 like (at least to start) last year and 3 RBs instead of 4, then it's very doable.  You have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Sherfield, Harty, and Shorter, and Shavers would replace Jones who was just a ST'er.

Edit:  But if they get DHop...

 

[flaz]

Forgive me if already posted. 

If I was a DB covering this man, I'd be very afraid 

 

[DanInUticaTampa]

23 hours ago, WMDman said:

As a Florida fan he was very frustrating to watch

 

dropped a-lot of balls 

 

only 6 drops on 177 targets

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

 

We need a flow chart for this. I think this all starts with James Hardy. 

'Little Shavers'? Makes sense.

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Aren't they supposed to catch it? 🤔

[SCBills]

47 minutes ago, flaz said:

Forgive me if already posted. 

If I was a DB covering this man, I'd be very afraid 

 

Listened to Cover1’s podcast about Day 3 while working out and it was legit uncomfortable how hard they were lusting after this man. 

[BADOLBILZ]

48 minutes ago, flaz said:

Forgive me if already posted. 

If I was a DB covering this man, I'd be very afraid 

 

 

 

DK Decaf

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

This is the type of pick that could end up being a steal. Remember Diggs was also a 5th rounder. You never know 🤷🏻

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

This is the type of pick that could end up being a steal. Remember Diggs was also a 5th rounder. You never know 🤷🏻

 

 

I think ideally you have a bunch of late picks and get a mix of value players who achieved in college and have a good chance of helping the team.........and then a couple of guys with traits that may have a lot more potential than shown in college.   Part of the reason Whaley's drafts look worse in hindsight   was that he tended to throw a lot more picks at big traits underachievers.   I don't think that really made or broke him.......not getting a QB did that.

[sven233]

I have only watched a couple of games on him to this point.  Now that he's a Bill, I'll watch more.  But from what I've seen to this point in my evaluation is that him not going until the 5th round was not a product of dropping balls, not being fast enough, or not being tough enough, etc.  His issue is in his hips and the fact that he seems to be wound real tight which is not uncommon for guys that look like him.

 

The things he struggles with the most are working in short areas and not being able to get out of his breaks quick enough.  With his height, coupled with the fact that he is a bit stiffer in the hips, makes it so he can't (at least to this point) snap off his routes and he has a tendency to round them off.  So, what separation he does create at the top of his routes gets eaten up by CBs sometimes because they have that extra half second or so to recover when he comes out of his breaks because he needs an extra step or 2 that the elite ones don't need to take.  This shows up in his 3 cone and short shuttle results from his workout as well.

 

Now, can this be fixed?  Sure....to some extent.  You can't change his height, but you can can work on flexibility and, in turn, help improve route running at the same time.  Getting him in the building and having NFL trainers that are paid to work with players on this kind of stuff specifically can help maybe loosen him up a bit.  Couple that with NFL coaches that will be coaching him up on every little detail of every route should help as well.  Many times in college, while there are coaches there to help, they don't focus on every single detail and these physical freak athletes can just get by with their God-given ability. In the NFL, every detail matters and they will drill him on it relentlessly.  

 

By all accounts, the kid is an extremely hard worker.  I mean, let's face it, you don't get to look like that if your not a hard worker and extremely motivated and disciplined.  The staff will push him for sure and work to correct these issues.  Make no mistake about it, though....this isn't the easiest thing to fix for a lot of reasons.  But, it can be done.  DK had similar issues when coming out.  It was one of the reasons he dropped.  But he was much faster than Shorter and therefore he didn't drop as far.  But his route running in the NFL has improved over time.  It's not perfect and he still gets by on physical talent, but he's much better than where he was coming out. 

 

There's reason for optimism.  But it isn't going to be easy for him.  We'll see what happens.  Can't wait to get more into more tape this week.

 

  

[947]

Watching his tape, he does catch with his body more than you'd like to see, but he also has a bunch of hands catches & high-point catches so he clearly has that ability. He just needs to be coached to not let the ball get into his body as much. Not a big deal IMO. A body catch is a whole lot better than not catching it.

 

He also played with one of the more inaccurate QBs in college football, and a lot of deep balls were underthrown, causing him to slow down & let it drop into his hands tight to his body. I didn't see many where the ball was out in front of him & he had to extend/reach to catch it.

[starrymessenger]

If this guy was a good route runner he'd be a first round pick. No quick breaks, tempo variance etc...Wonder if it is coachable in his case or maybe he just can't do it. Didn't perform the agility drills at the Combine. Wonder why. Hamstring?

[Doc]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

If this guy was a good route runner he'd be a first round pick. No quick breaks, tempo variance etc...Wonder if it is coachable in his case or maybe he just can't do it. Didn't perform the agility drills at the Combine. Wonder why. Hamstring?

 

Pain tolerance test...

[Rebel101]

3 hours ago, maddenboy said:

furthermore, it sounds like (from the other thread about UDFA) that that 6'6" receiver who we got as UDFA on a 3 year deal is the new special teams gunner.

 

dont see where Shorter will fit. 

 

He's only a 5th round draft pick.  Who as was mentioned upthread, is "a big receiver who is not good at football."

 

Perhaps I can dilute it by saying "Shorter will not see the field" but that's only if McBeane wanna try to salvage value by telling themselves he will get better,  so they keep him as a perpetual game-day inactive player.

 

But it wont take 4 years, like it did for Edmunds.

So I think Beane has a plan for Shorter. Get him game ready, never let him see the field, shove him down the PS long after we know he is ready and then allow another team to grab him and then Beane will know he made the correct pick. 

[947]

22 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Didn't perform the agility drills at the Combine. Wonder why. Hamstring?

A lot of the big X WR types elect to skip the shuttle & 3-cone drills, they're advised by their agents to do so when it's apparent their skill set isn't agility, and doing those drills will only hurt them.

 

Metcalf did both drills, and while he blew the doors off the combine in the speed, strength, & explosiveness drills, he totally crapped the bed in the 3-cone & shuttle. It's part of the reason why he dropped to Round 2. Calvin Johnson skipped both & he still went #2 overall.

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, LEBills said:

Seems like a really great kid but I think he will be a PS guy whether we get DHop or Jalen Wayne or Tyrell Shavers beats him out for a 53 spot. Wayne is a better receiver at this point and Shavers is a great special team gunner. Rooting for all three of them tho

Shorter is almost a lock imo and I think Shavers is likely to make roster too. We'll take 7 WRs this time around.

[Warriorspikes51]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CpYtEXgLg13/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

Look at the acceleration when he turns upfield

[buffaloboyinATL]

24 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CpYtEXgLg13/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
 

Look at the acceleration when he turns upfield

Gotta love those long strides!

[WideNine]

On 4/29/2023 at 12:29 PM, SirAndrew said:

Good point, but I think QB accuracy is more complex than catching a football. People assume low completion percentage means the QB is inaccurate. A QB’s supporting cast can make him appear to be more inaccurate than he is. I guarantee Josh would have been considered an accurate passer had he played with SEC level talent. 

 

Totally agree with this as accuracy gets muddled by dink and dunk QBs with high completion rates, and QBs that have the luxury of elite pass catchers. Those elite receivers share a common trait of getting open, winning on contested throws, and having a great catch radius and hands. Throwing on the money is always a good thing, but having  receivers that can adjust their routes, speed, timing, positioning and leverage to be in best position to catch a pass cannot be undervalued.

Cousins has always been a pretty accurate passer when given time, but the addition of Jefferson who is an elite receiver made his stats go through the roof. We saw first hand how Jefferson could correct normally poor throwing decisions in traffic with circus catches over defenders.

 

Not sure about the SEC statement. If we are honest, Allen did have really bad mechanics coming out of college, but folks should balance that with his multi-sport focus in HS and the fact that he never really had the luxury of QB schools and coaching that could have helped correct those mechanics. Perhaps in a SEC school he would have gotten those things and great receivers to boot. Either way, OBD knew he was raw with a lot of upside when they took him in the draft.

For me the biggest head-scratcher with Allen is the tendencies to misfire behind or near the LOS with screens, bubbles, wheel routes, and dumps. Those seem to be the hardest throws for him where those are usually the bread & butter of QBs that pad their QBR with easy to make high-completion passes. He is like a guy who can nail all the 3 pointers, but makes layups seem hard.

 

That being said, Allen is the type of player who will keep working and tweaking his game. Since he thrives on extending plays, he does not really rely as much as other QBs on those kind of intended dink & dunk plays -  for now. He will need to learn to lean on those outlet options more to protect his body and his NFL longevity as his game matures. 

 

Last year I noticed he was experimenting a lot more with his release angles and putting some arc on his throws as defenders at the LOS were having more success getting their hands up to knock down passes. His elbow injury may have contributed to some changes in throwing motion too. One thing for sure with Allen is that it always feels like you need to strap in because you are likely in for a wild ride.
 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, 947 said:

A lot of the big X WR types elect to skip the shuttle & 3-cone drills, they're advised by their agents to do so when it's apparent their skill set isn't agility, and doing those drills will only hurt them.

 

Metcalf did both drills, and while he blew the doors off the combine in the speed, strength, & explosiveness drills, he totally crapped the bed in the 3-cone & shuttle. It's part of the reason why he dropped to Round 2. Calvin Johnson skipped both & he still went #2 overall.

 

This lead to the whole “but he can’t turn!!!” commentary. Well, so much for that.

 

 

(And I admit to having been skeptical, full disclosure.) 

[Maine-iac]

If Shorter shows he can do Gave Davis type things it would be a real cost savings as Davis hits the end of his contract.  I like Davis but he has enough stats to demand a decent contract.  Money we might not have.

[zevo]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

If Shorter shows he can do Gave Davis type things it would be a real cost savings as Davis hits the end of his contract.  I like Davis but he has enough stats to demand a decent contract.  Money we might not have.

as of now I have no desire to shell out the contract that Gabe will get. 

[Turk71]

Shorter was the top ranked wr in 2018 college recruiting class that included Amon Ra, Waddle, and Chase; so the potential is definitely there. Penn St was a bad fit and it seems he was much improved his last seasons at Fla. 

 I hope he is a diamond in the rough and contributes immediately

[Don Otreply]

50 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Totally agree with this as accuracy gets muddled by dink and dunk QBs with high completion rates, and QBs that have the luxury of elite pass catchers. Those elite receivers share a common trait of getting open, winning on contested throws, and having a great catch radius and hands. Throwing on the money is always a good thing, but having  receivers that can adjust their routes, speed, timing, positioning and leverage to be in best position to catch a pass cannot be undervalued.

Cousins has always been a pretty accurate passer when given time, but the addition of Jefferson who is an elite receiver made his stats go through the roof. We saw first hand how Jefferson could correct normally poor throwing decisions in traffic with circus catches over defenders.

 

Not sure about the SEC statement. If we are honest, Allen did have really bad mechanics coming out of college, but folks should balance that with his multi-sport focus in HS and the fact that he never really had the luxury of QB schools and coaching that could have helped correct those mechanics. Perhaps in a SEC school he would have gotten those things and great receivers to boot. Either way, OBD knew he was raw with a lot of upside when they took him in the draft.

For me the biggest head-scratcher with Allen is the tendencies to misfire behind or near the LOS with screens, bubbles, wheel routes, and dumps. Those seem to be the hardest throws for him where those are usually the bread & butter of QBs that pad their QBR with easy to make high-completion passes. He is like a guy who can nail all the 3 pointers, but makes layups seem hard.

 

That being said, Allen is the type of player who will keep working and tweaking his game. Since he thrives on extending plays, he does not really rely as much as other QBs on those kind of intended dink & dunk plays -  for now. He will need to learn to lean on those outlet options more to protect his body and his NFL longevity as his game matures. 

 

Last year I noticed he was experimenting a lot more with his release angles and putting some arc on his throws as defenders at the LOS were having more success getting their hands up to knock down passes. His elbow injury may have contributed to some changes in throwing motion too. One thing for sure with Allen is that it always feels like you need to strap in because you are likely in for a wild ride.
 

It just might be that after playing a big chunk of the season injured Josh might actually take to heart the benefit of the short / check down pass  when it’s the right choice in the right circumstance, ya never know…, 

[MrEpsYtown]

19 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Shorter was the top ranked wr in 2018 college recruiting class that included Amon Ra, Waddle, and Chase; so the potential is definitely there. Penn St was a bad fit and it seems he was much improved his last seasons at Fla. 

 I hope he is a diamond in the rough and contributes immediately

Coaching was pretty inconsistent there and sometimes it just takes big guys longer as well. I’m very excited about this one. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Augie]

42 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

If Shorter shows he can do Gave Davis type things it would be a real cost savings as Davis hits the end of his contract.  I like Davis but he has enough stats to demand a decent contract.  Money we might not have.

 

But…….we have @HOUSE on our side!!! 

 

I’ve said I like Gabe more than most others do here. I expect a pretty good year, and a pretty good offer from another team. He will be the next Horrible Harry or Tremaine. Out the door, because we drafted a guy who turned out to be good enough that he had a serious market. 

 

I hope we have a bigger, better replacement. A guy can dream, right? 

 

 

.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Augie

[Maine-iac]

6 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

But…….we have @HOUSE on our side!!! 

 

I’ve said I like Gabe more than most others do here. I expect a pretty good year, and a pretty good offer from another team. He will be the next Horrible Harry or Tremaine. Out the door, because we drafted a guy who turned out to be good enough that he had a serious market. 

 

I hope we have a bigger, better replacement. I guy can dream, right? 

 

 

.

i think as a team we are pretty good at evaluating WR's.  We used a late round pick on Gabe and it turned out well.  Hodgins and Shakir seem to be on track to be decent players.  Hopefully they can keep going to that draft pick well and Shorter sees the field a lot.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

This lead to the whole “but he can’t turn!!!” commentary. Well, so much for that.

 

 

(And I admit to having been skeptical, full disclosure.) 

Shorter did the agility drills at his pro day, according to this. It did not go well. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Shorter did the agility drills at his pro day, according to this. It did not go well. 

 

Wait, am I reading this right? Did he come in in the 3rd percentile in the three cone drill? Did he get lost or something? 

[Maine-iac]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Shorter did the agility drills at his pro day, according to this. It did not go well. 

His 3 cone was not good but all in all his 20 yard was faster than gabe and his 40 and 10 yard splits were virtually identical.  If he's running routes Gabe runs his 3 cone isn't as important as just timing and running a good route.  As long as they aren't asking him to do water bug things.  I guess we'll see though.

[Chaos]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Wait, am I reading this right? Did he come in in the 3rd percentile in the three cone drill? Did he get lost or something? 

It actually indicates the cone won. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by Chaos

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

If Shorter shows he can do Gave Davis type things it would be a real cost savings as Davis hits the end of his contract.  I like Davis but he has enough stats to demand a decent contract.  Money we might not have.

Shorter is Gabes replacement.  Gabe will get paid.  Well at least too much for Bills come free agency.  Shorter and Shavers make it for special teams, and replace Taiwan, Kumerow, and possibly Matekevich.  Rookie contracts free up cap space to plug other holes

[MrEpsYtown]

Sh

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Shorter did the agility drills at his pro day, according to this. It did not go well. 

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Wait, am I reading this right? Did he come in in the 3rd percentile in the three cone drill? Did he get lost or something? 

Someone made a point somewhere about big guys and agility drills. Both Shorter’s 3 cone and shuttle are bad scores but actually better than DK Metcalf. DK has Shorter easily beat in the 40, but that’s why Shorter is a 5th round pick. Shorter’s short shuttle is better than Tee Higgins as well. Almost every measure of Shorter’s is better than Higgins and I think that is a good comp. Plus Shorter has 15 lbs on him. Those scores have not affected Higgins’ career.
 

Big guys like Mike Williams, DJ Chark, Equanimous St. Brown and Chase Claypool skipped those drills. 
 

I think those numbers are super important especially for a slot guy, but in this case for a 5th rounder with upside, it doesn’t really bother me. If he had the great 3 cone and a better 40 he would have been a first round pick. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[newcam2012]

Looks like he's on steroids. Reminds me of David Boston.