All Gunner's Draft Stuff.... 2023 Edition!!!

[GunnerBill]

A little later than normal, apologies I normally try and get this out the weekend before the draft, but work has meant I am cutting it a little finer this year. I have done this the past few years, it just sorts all my draft stuff into one convenient place for people to find and acts as a useful historical record as well - both for good and bad. 

 

I will start by saying this has not been my favourite draft class to evaluate. As soon as I started looking at in January I didn't like it. A lot of older prospects who I feel are kinda physically maxed and still don't dominate on film as I'd want them to. Then at most positions I just don't see the stars. It is like a draft class where someone has removed the top 10 prospects. So the guys you are starting with and who will make up the top 12 picks or so are guys you really think should be later day 1 picks. I've ended up with 136 players graded, which is fewer than the last 3 years, normally I'm up around 145-150. That is partly a time thing, partly there were a few I started watching hoping to like them enough to sit through 3 games and after 1 game had written UDFA and moved on. That said it doesn't leave me any less excited for the draft itself. The intrigue, the team building strategy, the window it gives you into what GMs and coaches really feel about the state of their rosters and their chances to win in the year to come. It's always fascinating. I can't wait for tomorrow night. 

 

As for my draft stuff.... the already published products are:

 

My 2023 Quarterback evaluations

My 2023 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's FINAL mock draft 2023 

 

As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is:

A full list of my 11 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

Positional top 5s.

 

[Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Jalen Carter^, DT, Georgia

2. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama

3. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

4. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

5. Paris Johnson Jnr, OT, Ohio State

6. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

8. Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern

9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

10. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 12. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; 13. Jordan Addison, WR, USC; 14. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; 15. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

 

 

Analysis of the top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 6

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 11

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 9

Edge Rusher: 14

Linebacker: 7

Corner: 14

Safety: 7

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I will start the analysis with this.... my 100th player is almost a half round later this year than they were last year. It was kind of 2/3s down my 3rd round grades last year, this year it's about a 3rd of the way into the 4th. It's actually strange because if you'd asked me, for example, "do you like the defensive tackle depth?" or "do you like the safety depth?" then in isolation I'd say "no." But actually the numbers in the top 100 are not that bad. Equally I would say I do like this tight end class, but what that really means is I think there is up to 6 guys who could end up as TE1s in the NFL (some need different systems than others, but in the right spot there are 6 guys that could end up starters). I think it drops off after that until you get the cluster of guys a bit later (outside my top 100) who could be decent TE2s. I have fewer round 1 grades, but also round 2 and round 3 grades this year. But considerably more 4th rounders. It's the draft for the role player! 

 

Where do I see the strengths of the class? I think corner through days 1 and 2 is the position with the most potential bona fide NFL starters. Interestingly I think corner then drops off a bit in day 3 and there are not a lot of guys I see being taken late who can be Jaylen Watson types, one of my sleepers last year who was picked by the Chiefs in round 7 and started as a rookie in the Superbowl, or even Dane Jackson, Christian Benford types. Edge probably has above average depth of guys I'd normally consider day 2 talents, but you are probably going to see the likes of Keion White and Will McDonald who are raw, will need to be used differently in the NFL to college and yet are 24 year old rookies go in round 1. Which means by the time you get to the spot where the depth should be good the class could already be hollowed out somewhat. The same might happen at receiver where there is a bunch of guys who might be good WR2s and WR3s in the NFL or might be depth receiver who can play teams... but if you are looking for that archetypal #1 X receiver in this class, they really are not there. There is good interior offensive line depth. I have 16 guys that I'd be willing to consider between mid round 2 and end of round 4 / start of round 5. Conversely the tackle depth drops off quickly. I have it as Johnson and Jones (if, as I do, you think ultimately Skoronski is a guard) and then Harrison, Wright and Bergeron. After that there are only two more guys I'd consider before round 4 - and neither is Dawand Jones btw, who only just creeps into my top 100. 

 

Where is it particularly weak? Safety for a start. I only have Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson with grades in the first two rounds. S3 this year would be S7 in last year's class for example. Linebacker is another weak spot. I think part of the reason we have talked so much about Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders in these parts is that there is a big drop after them. I basically have Daiyan Henley sort of floating out on his own as a 2nd/3rd borderline and then nothing else at that spot until the end of round 3. LB5 this year would have been LB10 last year. It does mean teams, like the Bills, who have a need at the spot feel pressured to reach either in round 1 (still think and hope they will resist that temptation) or trade up in round 2 (possible). Also running back where I do have a first rounder in Bijan, which is often not the case, but then I only have two more guys before the very end of the 3rd. I don't even love the later running back depth this year compared to some others. A bit like with receiver I think there are some backs later who can be role players, but not seeing those late round starters that have come out of some other classes - although more than any other position it is one where a late round guy can come from almost nowhere - so very much remains to be seen.

 

The class does level out a fair bit by the end of the 4th round and the day 3 depth overall probably isn't that different to a normal class. But if a team manages to ace this draft and select a franchise changing class then that GM deserves a hell of a lot of plaudits. Because it is going to be tough sledding. 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (2nd)

3. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2nd)

4. Hendon Hooker*, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Will Levis, Kentucky (2nd/3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Bijan Robinson, Texas (1st)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (2nd)

3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (2nd/3rd)

4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M (3rd)

5. Zach Evans, Ole Miss (3rd/4th)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jordan Addison, USC (1st/2nd)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba*, Ohio State (1st/2nd)

3. Quentin Johnston, TCU (2nd)

4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Josh Downs, UNC (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Dalton Kincaid, Utah (2nd)

2. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (2nd)

3. Sam LaPorta, Iowa (3rd)

4. Darnell Washington, Georgia (3rd)

5. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State (1st)

2. Broderick Jones, Georgia (2nd)

3. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2nd)

4. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (1st)

2. John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota (2nd)

3. O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida (2nd)

4. Andrew Vorhees*, USC (2nd)

5. Steve Avila, TCU (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Jalen Carter^, Georgia (1st)

2. Bryan Bresee, Clemson (2nd)

3. Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (2nd)

4. Mazi Smith, Michigan (2nd)

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Will Anderson, Alabama (1st)

2. Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (1st)

3. Myles Murphy, Clemson (1st)

4. Lukas Van Ness, Iowa (2nd)

5. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Trenton Simpson, Clemson (1st)

2. Drew Sanders, Arkansas (2nd)

3. Jack Campbell, Iowa (2nd)

4. Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2nd/3rd)

5. Henry To'o To'o, Alabama (3rd)

 

Corner

1. Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (1st)

2. Devon Witherspoon, Illinois (1st)

3. Joey Porter Jnr, Penn State (1st)

4. Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State (2nd)

5. Deonte Banks, Maryland (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Brian Branch, Alabama (1st)

2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (2nd)

3. Christopher Smith, Georgia (3rd)

4. Jordan Battle, Alabama (3rd)

5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts

The first interesting thing to watch for in this draft is the way the back end of round 1 goes tomorrow night. I think there will be a few surprises. There might be one or two names that pop up there that multiple people see as more like 3rd rounders. There is normally one. It was Cole Strange last year, otherwise when the Seahawks used to pick late every year it was normally whoever they took. Wouldn't surprise me if I am reaching down the board on more than one occasion tomorrow to mark off a name that I thought we could ignore until Friday. I think the second interesting question will be at what point does any kind of consensus go out of the window completely and I think could be as early as the middle of the second round. I think you could very easily see guys people presume would be gone sliding and guys that are not even being talked about as day 2 picks coming off the board in the late 40s and 50s. In a draft like this that is weaker in early rounds I think smart GMs will be trying to move around to target specific players who might be scheme fits for their roster but wouldn't necessarily hold the same value league wide. That could mean a lot of trade activity in day 2, whereas I don't see a ton of trades day 1 other than if a team wants to go up for a Quarterback, because there just are not those blue chippers to go chase after. 

 

Anyway, what I can promise is I'll be there through all seven rounds in the draft thread. To the very bitter end on Saturday night. And I will be here each morning after with my daily de-briefs too. Even when the class is not stellar the NFL Draft is one of my favourite events in the sporting calendar... and we are now just about 25 hours away from the Carolina Panthers going on the clock!!!

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by GunnerBill

[The BLUES Brothers]

Always genuinely interested in your commentary and opinions on the Class of the Draft. Thank you, Sir!

[TOboy]

Thanks GB! Excellent analysis as always!

 

Surprised to see Zay Flowers not make your top 5 receivers. I’d love to hear your thoughts on him. 

[gonzo1105]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

A little later than normal, apologies I normally try and get this out the weekend before the draft, but work has meant I am cutting it a little finer this year. I have done this the past few years, it just sorts all my draft stuff into one convenient place for people to find and acts as a useful historical record as well - both for good and bad. 

 

I will start by saying this has not been my favourite draft class to evaluate. As soon as I started looking at in January I didn't like it. A lot of older prospects who I feel are kinda physically maxed and still don't dominate on film as I'd want them to. Then at most positions I just don't see the stars. It is like a draft class where someone has removed the top 10 prospects. So the guys you are starting with and who will make up the top 12 picks or so are guys you really think should be later day 1 picks. I've ended up with 136 players graded, which is fewer than the last 3 years, normally I'm up around 145-150. That is partly a time thing, partly there were a few I started watching hoping to like them enough to sit through 3 games and after 1 game had written UDFA and moved on. That said it doesn't leave me any less excited for the draft itself. The intrigue, the team building strategy, the window it gives you into what GMs and coaches really feel about the state of their rosters and their chances to win in the year to come. It's always fascinating. I can't wait for tomorrow night. 

 

As for my draft stuff.... the already published products are:

 

My 2023 Quarterback evaluations

My 2023 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft (currently linking to version 2.0, but my final version 3.0 will be published tomorrow and that is the one I'll mark myself against)

 

As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is:

A full list of my 11 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

Positional top 5s.

 

[Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Jalen Carter^, DT, Georgia

2. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama

3. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

4. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

5. Paris Johnson Jnr, OT, Ohio State

6. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

8. Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern

9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

10. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 12. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; 13. Jordan Addison, WR, USC; 14. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; 15. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

 

 

Analysis of the top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 6

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 11

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 9

Edge Rusher: 14

Linebacker: 7

Corner: 14

Safety: 7

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I will start the analysis with this.... my 100th player is almost a half round later this year than they were last year. It was kind of 2/3s down my 3rd round grades last year, this year it's about a 3rd of the way into the 4th. It's actually strange because if you'd asked me, for example, "do you like the defensive tackle depth?" or "do you like the safety depth?" then in isolation I'd say "no." But actually the numbers in the top 100 are not that bad. Equally I would say I do like this tight end class, but what that really means is I think there is up to 6 guys who could end up as TE1s in the NFL (some need different systems than others, but in the right spot there are 6 guys that could end up starters). I think it drops off after that until you get the cluster of guys a bit later (outside my top 100) who could be decent TE2s. I have fewer round 1 grades, but also round 2 and round 3 grades this year. But considerably more 4th rounders. It's the draft for the role player! 

 

Where do I see the strengths of the class? I think corner through days 1 and 2 is the position with the most potential bona fide NFL starters. Interestingly I think corner then drops off a bit in day 3 and there are not a lot of guys I see being taken late who can be Jaylen Watson types, one of my sleepers last year who was picked by the Chiefs in round 7 and started as a rookie in the Superbowl, or even Dane Jackson, Christian Benford types. Edge probably has above average depth of guys I'd normally consider day 2 talents, but you are probably going to see the likes of Keion White and Will McDonald who are raw, will need to be used differently in the NFL to college and yet are 24 year old rookies go in round 1. Which means by the time you get to the spot where the depth should be good the class could already be hollowed out somewhat. The same might happen at receiver where there is a bunch of guys who might be good WR2s and WR3s in the NFL or might be depth receiver who can play teams... but if you are looking for that archetypal #1 X receiver in this class, they really are not there. There is good interior offensive line depth. I have 16 guys that I'd be willing to consider between mid round 2 and end of round 4 / start of round 5. Conversely the tackle depth drops off quickly. I have it as Johnson and Jones (if, as I do, you think ultimately Skoronski is a guard) and then Harrison, Wright and Bergeron. After that there are only two more guys I'd consider before round 4 - and neither is Dawand Jones btw, who only just creeps into my top 100. 

 

Where is it particularly weak? Safety for a start. I only have Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson with grades in the first two rounds. S3 this year would be S7 in last year's class for example. Linebacker is another weak spot. I think part of the reason we have talked so much about Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders in these parts is that there is a big drop after them. I basically have Daiyan Henley sort of floating out on his own as a 2nd/3rd borderline and then nothing else at that spot until the end of round 3. LB5 this year would have been LB10 last year. It does mean teams, like the Bills, who have a need at the spot feel pressured to reach either in round 1 (still think and hope they will resist that temptation) or trade up in round 2 (possible). Also running back where I do have a first rounder in Bijan, which is often not the case, but then I only have two more guys before the very end of the 3rd. I don't even love the later running back depth this year compared to some others. A bit like with receiver I think there are some backs later who can be role players, but not seeing those late round starters that have come out of some other classes - although more than any other position it is one where a late round guy can come from almost nowhere - so very much remains to be seen.

 

The class does level out a fair bit by the end of the 4th round and the day 3 depth overall probably isn't that different to a normal class. But if a team manages to ace this draft and select a franchise changing class then that GM deserves a hell of a lot of plaudits. Because it is going to be tough sledding. 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (2nd)

3. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2nd)

4. Hendon Hooker*, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Will Levis, Kentucky (2nd/3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Bijan Robinson, Texas (1st)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (2nd)

3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (2nd/3rd)

4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M (3rd)

5. Zach Evans, Ole Miss (3rd/4th)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jordan Addison, USC (1st/2nd)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba*, Ohio State (1st/2nd)

3. Quentin Johnston, TCU (2nd)

4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Josh Downs, UNC (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Dalton Kincaid, Utah (2nd)

2. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (2nd)

3. Sam LaPorta, Iowa (3rd)

4. Darnell Washington, Georgia (3rd)

5. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State (1st)

2. Broderick Jones, Georgia (2nd)

3. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2nd)

4. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (1st)

2. John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota (2nd)

3. O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida (2nd)

4. Andrew Vorhees*, USC (2nd)

5. Steve Avila, TCU (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Jalen Carter^, Georgia (1st)

2. Bryan Bresee, Clemson (2nd)

3. Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (2nd)

4. Mazi Smith, Michigan (2nd)

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Will Anderson, Alabama (1st)

2. Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (1st)

3. Myles Murphy, Clemson (1st)

4. Lukas Van Ness, Iowa (2nd)

5. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Trenton Simpson, Clemson (1st)

2. Drew Sanders, Arkansas (2nd)

3. Jack Campbell, Iowa (2nd)

4. Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2nd/3rd)

5. Henry To'o To'o, Alabama (3rd)

 

Corner

1. Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (1st)

2. Devon Witherspoon, Illinois (1st)

3. Joey Porter Jnr, Penn State (1st)

4. Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State (2nd)

5. Deonte Banks, Maryland (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Brian Branch, Alabama (1st)

2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (2nd)

3. Christopher Smith, Georgia (3rd)

4. Jordan Battle, Alabama (3rd)

5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts

The first interesting thing to watch for in this draft is the way the back end of round 1 goes tomorrow night. I think there will be a few surprises. There might be one or two names that pop up there that multiple people see as more like 3rd rounders. There is normally one. It was Cole Strange last year, otherwise when the Seahawks used to pick late every year it was normally whoever they took. Wouldn't surprise me if I am reaching down the board on more than one occasion tomorrow to mark off a name that I thought we could ignore until Friday. I think the second interesting question will be at what point does any kind of consensus go out of the window completely and I think could be as early as the middle of the second round. I think you could very easily see guys people presume would be gone sliding and guys that are not even being talked about as day 2 picks coming off the board in the late 40s and 50s. In a draft like this that is weaker in early rounds I think smart GMs will be trying to move around to target specific players who might be scheme fits for their roster but wouldn't necessarily hold the same value league wide. That could mean a lot of trade activity in day 2, whereas I don't see a ton of trades day 1 other than if a team wants to go up for a Quarterback, because there just are not those blue chippers to go chase after. 

 

Anyway, what I can promise is I'll be there through all seven rounds in the draft thread. To the very bitter end on Saturday night. And I will be here each morning after with my daily de-briefs too. Even when the class is not stellar the NFL Draft is one of my favourite events in the sporting calendar... and we are now just about 25 hours away from the Carolina Panthers going on the clock!!!

 

 

I enjoy your stuff as well if not anything for comparison. I will admit that due to looking at this and having previous discussions lol you have a serious Clemson bias haha

[Dr. Who]

Really splendid work as always, Gunner. Thank you.

 

If you were the Bills' GM what positions would you prioritize given where the talent level is strongest and weakest and the current roster? Would you do the 34 for 27 D Hopkins trade that is speculated? What is your ideal plausible draft after day 2?

 

I like a number of players, but looking at the above, I think I want to make sure I end up with one of Bergeron, Wright, or Harrison. Another smart fella (it was gonzo) here speculated C early as a dark horse pick. That seems plausible to me.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dr. Who

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

I enjoy your stuff as well if not anything for comparison. I will admit that due to looking at this and having previous discussions lol you have a serious Clemson bias haha

 

Ha, if I do it is accidental. I don't have a college football rooting interest. 

[Zerovoltz]

This is really good work!  Appreciate your work and your thoughts here!

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, TOboy said:

Thanks GB! Excellent analysis as always!

 

Surprised to see Zay Flowers not make your top 5 receivers. I’d love to hear your thoughts on him. 

 

I think he has to be used in such a specific way. Size wise he is a complete outlier. He would be pretty much the only receiver with arms that short to succeed. It is partly a comment on him and partly a comment on my faith in NFL offensive coordinators. If my Head Coach was Kyle Shanahan I'd have Zay Flowers as my WR1. But when I look at how I think you have to use him - as a gimmick player you need to do a bit of everything with - I just don't know how many NFL offenses truly feel comfortable with that. 

[Shaw66]

Thanks, Gunner.  Excellent stuff.  

 

I think you responded to me a few weeks ago about how many can't-miss players there are.  My sense is that usually there are five or six can't miss guys, and three or four more who are very close.    When the Bills were picking at 10 or 12, I was always disappointed to be outside of range for the can't-miss guys, but I knew that the Bills still would be getting a quality guy.   

 

This year, it seems that it would be really disappointing to be at 10 or 12.  It's hard to find good value.   In an odd way, it's a good year to be drafting at the end of the first round.  

[Zerovoltz]

Just stashing this here..(sorry to intrude GunnerBill)

 

I did a complete, full 7 round mock draft with trades for all teams....and here is what I came up with for the Bills

 

Darnell Wright Tennessee OT

Keeanu Benton Wisconsin DL1T

Tank Dell Houston WR

Mike Morris Michigan DL5T

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kentucky RB

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Zerovoltz

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Just stashing this here..(sorry to intrude GunnerBill)

 

I did a complete, full 7 round mock draft with trades for all teams....and here is what I came up with for the Bills

 

Darnell Wright Tennessee OT

Keeanu Benton Wisconsin DL1T

Tank Dell Houston WR

Mike Morris Michigan DL5T

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kentucky RB

 

 

 

I'd fire you.

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Just stashing this here..(sorry to intrude GunnerBill)

 

I did a complete, full 7 round mock draft with trades for all teams....and here is what I came up with for the Bills

 

Darnell Wright Tennessee OT

Keeanu Benton Wisconsin DL1T

Tank Dell Houston WR

Mike Morris Michigan DL5T

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kentucky RB

 

 

Not my WR of choice but I’d be very happy with that draft

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd fire you.

Why?  Josh Allen might survive the season if this occurred 

[Nephilim17]

Thanks Gunner. 

2 questions:

I'm assuming watching a minimum of 3 games per player (and up to 7 or  8, I believe you said elsewhere) is a minimum of 1 hour (accounting for plays only as I assume you can fast-forward through non-play time) per player and probably closer to 1.5 hours on average. If so, that could be minimum of 136 hours and maybe closer to 200 hours of work. Is this range close? Where the heck do you find the time?

Second, if you were Gm, what would be your six picks (say no trade) for the Bills, based on where you expect everyone to go?

 

Cheers.

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

A little later than normal, apologies I normally try and get this out the weekend before the draft, but work has meant I am cutting it a little finer this year. I have done this the past few years, it just sorts all my draft stuff into one convenient place for people to find and acts as a useful historical record as well - both for good and bad. 

 

I will start by saying this has not been my favourite draft class to evaluate. As soon as I started looking at in January I didn't like it. A lot of older prospects who I feel are kinda physically maxed and still don't dominate on film as I'd want them to. Then at most positions I just don't see the stars. It is like a draft class where someone has removed the top 10 prospects. So the guys you are starting with and who will make up the top 12 picks or so are guys you really think should be later day 1 picks. I've ended up with 136 players graded, which is fewer than the last 3 years, normally I'm up around 145-150. That is partly a time thing, partly there were a few I started watching hoping to like them enough to sit through 3 games and after 1 game had written UDFA and moved on. That said it doesn't leave me any less excited for the draft itself. The intrigue, the team building strategy, the window it gives you into what GMs and coaches really feel about the state of their rosters and their chances to win in the year to come. It's always fascinating. I can't wait for tomorrow night. 

 

As for my draft stuff.... the already published products are:

 

My 2023 Quarterback evaluations

My 2023 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft (currently linking to version 2.0, but my final version 3.0 will be published tomorrow and that is the one I'll mark myself against)

 

As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is:

A full list of my 11 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

Positional top 5s.

 

[Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Jalen Carter^, DT, Georgia

2. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama

3. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

4. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

5. Paris Johnson Jnr, OT, Ohio State

6. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

8. Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern

9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

10. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 12. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; 13. Jordan Addison, WR, USC; 14. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; 15. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

 

 

Analysis of the top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 6

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 11

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 9

Edge Rusher: 14

Linebacker: 7

Corner: 14

Safety: 7

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I will start the analysis with this.... my 100th player is almost a half round later this year than they were last year. It was kind of 2/3s down my 3rd round grades last year, this year it's about a 3rd of the way into the 4th. It's actually strange because if you'd asked me, for example, "do you like the defensive tackle depth?" or "do you like the safety depth?" then in isolation I'd say "no." But actually the numbers in the top 100 are not that bad. Equally I would say I do like this tight end class, but what that really means is I think there is up to 6 guys who could end up as TE1s in the NFL (some need different systems than others, but in the right spot there are 6 guys that could end up starters). I think it drops off after that until you get the cluster of guys a bit later (outside my top 100) who could be decent TE2s. I have fewer round 1 grades, but also round 2 and round 3 grades this year. But considerably more 4th rounders. It's the draft for the role player! 

 

Where do I see the strengths of the class? I think corner through days 1 and 2 is the position with the most potential bona fide NFL starters. Interestingly I think corner then drops off a bit in day 3 and there are not a lot of guys I see being taken late who can be Jaylen Watson types, one of my sleepers last year who was picked by the Chiefs in round 7 and started as a rookie in the Superbowl, or even Dane Jackson, Christian Benford types. Edge probably has above average depth of guys I'd normally consider day 2 talents, but you are probably going to see the likes of Keion White and Will McDonald who are raw, will need to be used differently in the NFL to college and yet are 24 year old rookies go in round 1. Which means by the time you get to the spot where the depth should be good the class could already be hollowed out somewhat. The same might happen at receiver where there is a bunch of guys who might be good WR2s and WR3s in the NFL or might be depth receiver who can play teams... but if you are looking for that archetypal #1 X receiver in this class, they really are not there. There is good interior offensive line depth. I have 16 guys that I'd be willing to consider between mid round 2 and end of round 4 / start of round 5. Conversely the tackle depth drops off quickly. I have it as Johnson and Jones (if, as I do, you think ultimately Skoronski is a guard) and then Harrison, Wright and Bergeron. After that there are only two more guys I'd consider before round 4 - and neither is Dawand Jones btw, who only just creeps into my top 100. 

 

Where is it particularly weak? Safety for a start. I only have Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson with grades in the first two rounds. S3 this year would be S7 in last year's class for example. Linebacker is another weak spot. I think part of the reason we have talked so much about Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders in these parts is that there is a big drop after them. I basically have Daiyan Henley sort of floating out on his own as a 2nd/3rd borderline and then nothing else at that spot until the end of round 3. LB5 this year would have been LB10 last year. It does mean teams, like the Bills, who have a need at the spot feel pressured to reach either in round 1 (still think and hope they will resist that temptation) or trade up in round 2 (possible). Also running back where I do have a first rounder in Bijan, which is often not the case, but then I only have two more guys before the very end of the 3rd. I don't even love the later running back depth this year compared to some others. A bit like with receiver I think there are some backs later who can be role players, but not seeing those late round starters that have come out of some other classes - although more than any other position it is one where a late round guy can come from almost nowhere - so very much remains to be seen.

 

The class does level out a fair bit by the end of the 4th round and the day 3 depth overall probably isn't that different to a normal class. But if a team manages to ace this draft and select a franchise changing class then that GM deserves a hell of a lot of plaudits. Because it is going to be tough sledding. 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (2nd)

3. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2nd)

4. Hendon Hooker*, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Will Levis, Kentucky (2nd/3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Bijan Robinson, Texas (1st)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (2nd)

3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (2nd/3rd)

4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M (3rd)

5. Zach Evans, Ole Miss (3rd/4th)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jordan Addison, USC (1st/2nd)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba*, Ohio State (1st/2nd)

3. Quentin Johnston, TCU (2nd)

4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Josh Downs, UNC (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Dalton Kincaid, Utah (2nd)

2. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (2nd)

3. Sam LaPorta, Iowa (3rd)

4. Darnell Washington, Georgia (3rd)

5. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State (1st)

2. Broderick Jones, Georgia (2nd)

3. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2nd)

4. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (1st)

2. John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota (2nd)

3. O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida (2nd)

4. Andrew Vorhees*, USC (2nd)

5. Steve Avila, TCU (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Jalen Carter^, Georgia (1st)

2. Bryan Bresee, Clemson (2nd)

3. Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (2nd)

4. Mazi Smith, Michigan (2nd)

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Will Anderson, Alabama (1st)

2. Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (1st)

3. Myles Murphy, Clemson (1st)

4. Lukas Van Ness, Iowa (2nd)

5. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Trenton Simpson, Clemson (1st)

2. Drew Sanders, Arkansas (2nd)

3. Jack Campbell, Iowa (2nd)

4. Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2nd/3rd)

5. Henry To'o To'o, Alabama (3rd)

 

Corner

1. Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (1st)

2. Devon Witherspoon, Illinois (1st)

3. Joey Porter Jnr, Penn State (1st)

4. Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State (2nd)

5. Deonte Banks, Maryland (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Brian Branch, Alabama (1st)

2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (2nd)

3. Christopher Smith, Georgia (3rd)

4. Jordan Battle, Alabama (3rd)

5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts

The first interesting thing to watch for in this draft is the way the back end of round 1 goes tomorrow night. I think there will be a few surprises. There might be one or two names that pop up there that multiple people see as more like 3rd rounders. There is normally one. It was Cole Strange last year, otherwise when the Seahawks used to pick late every year it was normally whoever they took. Wouldn't surprise me if I am reaching down the board on more than one occasion tomorrow to mark off a name that I thought we could ignore until Friday. I think the second interesting question will be at what point does any kind of consensus go out of the window completely and I think could be as early as the middle of the second round. I think you could very easily see guys people presume would be gone sliding and guys that are not even being talked about as day 2 picks coming off the board in the late 40s and 50s. In a draft like this that is weaker in early rounds I think smart GMs will be trying to move around to target specific players who might be scheme fits for their roster but wouldn't necessarily hold the same value league wide. That could mean a lot of trade activity in day 2, whereas I don't see a ton of trades day 1 other than if a team wants to go up for a Quarterback, because there just are not those blue chippers to go chase after. 

 

Anyway, what I can promise is I'll be there through all seven rounds in the draft thread. To the very bitter end on Saturday night. And I will be here each morning after with my daily de-briefs too. Even when the class is not stellar the NFL Draft is one of my favourite events in the sporting calendar... and we are now just about 25 hours away from the Carolina Panthers going on the clock!!!

 

 

really really good work Gunner

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Thanks Gunner. 

2 questions:

I'm assuming watching a minimum of 3 games per player (and up to 7 or  8, I believe you said elsewhere) is a minimum of 1 hour (accounting for plays only as I assume you can fast-forward through non-play time) per player and probably closer to 1.5 hours on average. If so, that could be minimum of 136 hours and maybe closer to 200 hours of work. Is this range close? Where the heck do you find the time?

Second, if you were Gm, what would be your six picks (say no trade) for the Bills, based on where you expect everyone to go?

 

Cheers.

 

Eeek. I've never done the math. Yea roughly an hour a player. 200 hours sounds a lot doesn't it? But that feels about right. But I start the first week of Jan, so over about 16/17 weeks. I do a lot of it on my commute (benefit of the tube and not driving) and I tend to a fair bit of it while I'm at the gym. I don't listen to music while I work out I watch college football film - I know, I'm odd. I also am not married, have an understanding partner, have no pets and no kids . 

 

EDIT as for the second bit... I don't know. I think the first round pick I'm most comfortable with of what feels at least possible is Jordan Addison. In the two mocks we did here that went into the second round they feel quite differently. In the first I think the value was edge at #59... Keion White was still there for example (that won't happen) but Derick Hall or Byron Young possibly. In the second one the value was at DB - Antonio Johnson at safety or Clark Phillips at corner. I think I'd stick to the board at #59 so it is really hard to know how it might fall.

 

I think rounds 3 and 4 edge and interior offensive line make some sense just on depth of the positions at those spots. Braiden Daniels maybe in the 3rd, T/G out of Utah. Possibly Isaiah McGuire out of Missou as a 4th round target? Again just trying to marry up where the depth might still be with the possible need and value. No idea rounds 5 and 6. 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by GunnerBill

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Thanks much, @GunnerBill, for all the effort you put into your analysis. Much appreciated, as always. Cheers, and Go Bills!

 

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Why?  Josh Allen might survive the season if this occurred 

 

I'm not as in love with Darnell Wright as everyone seems to be. Maybe it's just me but I don't see it. I think he is going top 20. Possible even top 15, and I think that's madness myself. And as we established when the Bills picked in him in the 2nd round of Virgil's first mock I have a 4th round grade on Benton. I'm actually the opposite of you in the sense the one pick I don't mind there is Tank Dell. I mean he is tiny (although has longer arms than Flowers) but he is actually fun to watch on tape and in round 3, sure I'd think he might be worth a gamble because if you can find a way to use him he can be pretty spectacular. 

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not as in love with Darnell Wright as everyone seems to be. Maybe it's just me but I don't see it. I think he is going top 20. Possible even top 15, and I think that's madness myself. And as we established when the Bills picked in him in the 2nd round of Virgil's first mock I have a 4th round grade on Benton. I'm actually the opposite of you in the sense the one pick I don't mind there is Tank Dell. I mean he is tiny (although has longer arms than Flowers) but he is actually fun to watch on tape and in round 3, sure I'd think he might be worth a gamble because if you can find a way to use him he can be pretty spectacular. 

 

I'm convinced the Bills are going to take some tiny WR in the first round and ruin my draft night.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not as in love with Darnell Wright as everyone seems to be. Maybe it's just me but I don't see it. I think he is going top 20. Possible even top 15, and I think that's madness myself. And as we established when the Bills picked in him in the 2nd round of Virgil's first mock I have a 4th round grade on Benton. I'm actually the opposite of you in the sense the one pick I don't mind there is Tank Dell. I mean he is tiny (although has longer arms than Flowers) but he is actually fun to watch on tape and in round 3, sure I'd think he might be worth a gamble because if you can find a way to use him he can be pretty spectacular. 

maybe it’s my disdain for Spencer Brown that has me so enamored with adding a RT.   That’s the one position I have no confidence in at the moment.  I prefer gabe @ WR2.  I even prefer our LB by committee @ Mike.  Josh’s health >> all.  He was hurt last year because our RT got smoked.

 

I actually like Dell in rd 3.  I’d just prefer some other guys.  I just hope to get more of an impact WR…. But I’m not expecting it.  I’d rather go WR rd 2, then Zacch Pickens Dexter or Roy in rd 3. But who knows who’ll be available   

[ChevyVanMiller]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

A little later than normal, apologies I normally try and get this out the weekend before the draft, but work has meant I am cutting it a little finer this year. I have done this the past few years, it just sorts all my draft stuff into one convenient place for people to find and acts as a useful historical record as well - both for good and bad. 

 

I will start by saying this has not been my favourite draft class to evaluate. As soon as I started looking at in January I didn't like it. A lot of older prospects who I feel are kinda physically maxed and still don't dominate on film as I'd want them to. Then at most positions I just don't see the stars. It is like a draft class where someone has removed the top 10 prospects. So the guys you are starting with and who will make up the top 12 picks or so are guys you really think should be later day 1 picks. I've ended up with 136 players graded, which is fewer than the last 3 years, normally I'm up around 145-150. That is partly a time thing, partly there were a few I started watching hoping to like them enough to sit through 3 games and after 1 game had written UDFA and moved on. That said it doesn't leave me any less excited for the draft itself. The intrigue, the team building strategy, the window it gives you into what GMs and coaches really feel about the state of their rosters and their chances to win in the year to come. It's always fascinating. I can't wait for tomorrow night. 

 

As for my draft stuff.... the already published products are:

 

My 2023 Quarterback evaluations

My 2023 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2023 Mock Draft (currently linking to version 2.0, but my final version 3.0 will be published tomorrow and that is the one I'll mark myself against)

 

As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is:

A full list of my 11 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

Positional top 5s.

 

[Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Jalen Carter^, DT, Georgia

2. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama

3. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

4. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

5. Paris Johnson Jnr, OT, Ohio State

6. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

8. Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern

9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

10. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State

11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 12. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; 13. Jordan Addison, WR, USC; 14. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; 15. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

 

 

Analysis of the top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 6

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 11

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 9

Edge Rusher: 14

Linebacker: 7

Corner: 14

Safety: 7

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I will start the analysis with this.... my 100th player is almost a half round later this year than they were last year. It was kind of 2/3s down my 3rd round grades last year, this year it's about a 3rd of the way into the 4th. It's actually strange because if you'd asked me, for example, "do you like the defensive tackle depth?" or "do you like the safety depth?" then in isolation I'd say "no." But actually the numbers in the top 100 are not that bad. Equally I would say I do like this tight end class, but what that really means is I think there is up to 6 guys who could end up as TE1s in the NFL (some need different systems than others, but in the right spot there are 6 guys that could end up starters). I think it drops off after that until you get the cluster of guys a bit later (outside my top 100) who could be decent TE2s. I have fewer round 1 grades, but also round 2 and round 3 grades this year. But considerably more 4th rounders. It's the draft for the role player! 

 

Where do I see the strengths of the class? I think corner through days 1 and 2 is the position with the most potential bona fide NFL starters. Interestingly I think corner then drops off a bit in day 3 and there are not a lot of guys I see being taken late who can be Jaylen Watson types, one of my sleepers last year who was picked by the Chiefs in round 7 and started as a rookie in the Superbowl, or even Dane Jackson, Christian Benford types. Edge probably has above average depth of guys I'd normally consider day 2 talents, but you are probably going to see the likes of Keion White and Will McDonald who are raw, will need to be used differently in the NFL to college and yet are 24 year old rookies go in round 1. Which means by the time you get to the spot where the depth should be good the class could already be hollowed out somewhat. The same might happen at receiver where there is a bunch of guys who might be good WR2s and WR3s in the NFL or might be depth receiver who can play teams... but if you are looking for that archetypal #1 X receiver in this class, they really are not there. There is good interior offensive line depth. I have 16 guys that I'd be willing to consider between mid round 2 and end of round 4 / start of round 5. Conversely the tackle depth drops off quickly. I have it as Johnson and Jones (if, as I do, you think ultimately Skoronski is a guard) and then Harrison, Wright and Bergeron. After that there are only two more guys I'd consider before round 4 - and neither is Dawand Jones btw, who only just creeps into my top 100. 

 

Where is it particularly weak? Safety for a start. I only have Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson with grades in the first two rounds. S3 this year would be S7 in last year's class for example. Linebacker is another weak spot. I think part of the reason we have talked so much about Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders in these parts is that there is a big drop after them. I basically have Daiyan Henley sort of floating out on his own as a 2nd/3rd borderline and then nothing else at that spot until the end of round 3. LB5 this year would have been LB10 last year. It does mean teams, like the Bills, who have a need at the spot feel pressured to reach either in round 1 (still think and hope they will resist that temptation) or trade up in round 2 (possible). Also running back where I do have a first rounder in Bijan, which is often not the case, but then I only have two more guys before the very end of the 3rd. I don't even love the later running back depth this year compared to some others. A bit like with receiver I think there are some backs later who can be role players, but not seeing those late round starters that have come out of some other classes - although more than any other position it is one where a late round guy can come from almost nowhere - so very much remains to be seen.

 

The class does level out a fair bit by the end of the 4th round and the day 3 depth overall probably isn't that different to a normal class. But if a team manages to ace this draft and select a franchise changing class then that GM deserves a hell of a lot of plaudits. Because it is going to be tough sledding. 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (2nd)

3. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2nd)

4. Hendon Hooker*, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Will Levis, Kentucky (2nd/3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Bijan Robinson, Texas (1st)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (2nd)

3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (2nd/3rd)

4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M (3rd)

5. Zach Evans, Ole Miss (3rd/4th)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jordan Addison, USC (1st/2nd)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba*, Ohio State (1st/2nd)

3. Quentin Johnston, TCU (2nd)

4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Josh Downs, UNC (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Dalton Kincaid, Utah (2nd)

2. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (2nd)

3. Sam LaPorta, Iowa (3rd)

4. Darnell Washington, Georgia (3rd)

5. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State (1st)

2. Broderick Jones, Georgia (2nd)

3. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2nd)

4. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2nd)

5. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (1st)

2. John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota (2nd)

3. O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida (2nd)

4. Andrew Vorhees*, USC (2nd)

5. Steve Avila, TCU (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Jalen Carter^, Georgia (1st)

2. Bryan Bresee, Clemson (2nd)

3. Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (2nd)

4. Mazi Smith, Michigan (2nd)

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Will Anderson, Alabama (1st)

2. Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (1st)

3. Myles Murphy, Clemson (1st)

4. Lukas Van Ness, Iowa (2nd)

5. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Trenton Simpson, Clemson (1st)

2. Drew Sanders, Arkansas (2nd)

3. Jack Campbell, Iowa (2nd)

4. Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2nd/3rd)

5. Henry To'o To'o, Alabama (3rd)

 

Corner

1. Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (1st)

2. Devon Witherspoon, Illinois (1st)

3. Joey Porter Jnr, Penn State (1st)

4. Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State (2nd)

5. Deonte Banks, Maryland (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Brian Branch, Alabama (1st)

2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (2nd)

3. Christopher Smith, Georgia (3rd)

4. Jordan Battle, Alabama (3rd)

5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts

The first interesting thing to watch for in this draft is the way the back end of round 1 goes tomorrow night. I think there will be a few surprises. There might be one or two names that pop up there that multiple people see as more like 3rd rounders. There is normally one. It was Cole Strange last year, otherwise when the Seahawks used to pick late every year it was normally whoever they took. Wouldn't surprise me if I am reaching down the board on more than one occasion tomorrow to mark off a name that I thought we could ignore until Friday. I think the second interesting question will be at what point does any kind of consensus go out of the window completely and I think could be as early as the middle of the second round. I think you could very easily see guys people presume would be gone sliding and guys that are not even being talked about as day 2 picks coming off the board in the late 40s and 50s. In a draft like this that is weaker in early rounds I think smart GMs will be trying to move around to target specific players who might be scheme fits for their roster but wouldn't necessarily hold the same value league wide. That could mean a lot of trade activity in day 2, whereas I don't see a ton of trades day 1 other than if a team wants to go up for a Quarterback, because there just are not those blue chippers to go chase after. 

 

Anyway, what I can promise is I'll be there through all seven rounds in the draft thread. To the very bitter end on Saturday night. And I will be here each morning after with my daily de-briefs too. Even when the class is not stellar the NFL Draft is one of my favourite events in the sporting calendar... and we are now just about 25 hours away from the Carolina Panthers going on the clock!!!

 

 

I know you put hundreds of hours into your draft analysis, @GunnerBill. Just want you to know that it is greatly appreciated. Go Bills!

[section122]

Awesome as always @GunnerBill did you get a chance to watch the center from michigan olu olu?

 

Rimington and outland winner with a 3rd round projection, I was wondering what your thoughts were on him.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not as in love with Darnell Wright as everyone seems to be. Maybe it's just me but I don't see it. I think he is going top 20. Possible even top 15, and I think that's madness myself. And as we established when the Bills picked in him in the 2nd round of Virgil's first mock I have a 4th round grade on Benton. I'm actually the opposite of you in the sense the one pick I don't mind there is Tank Dell. I mean he is tiny (although has longer arms than Flowers) but he is actually fun to watch on tape and in round 3, sure I'd think he might be worth a gamble because if you can find a way to use him he can be pretty spectacular. 

 

 

A RT-only in round 1 is like giving up on life.   Beane should just start wearing sweat pants to the office.   

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

 

Okay but you have to make a promise - if Myles Murphy busts, you will start dropping your final grades on Clemson edge rushers by at least half a round.

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay but you have to make a promise - if Myles Murphy busts, you will start dropping your final grades on Clemson edge rushers by at least half a round.

 

 

He's A LOT better than Shaq.   

[Locomark]

Hey Gunner, great job here! I am always surprised no one ever mentions the Illinois RB Chase Brown in the top 5 RBs. He’s a tough downhill runner and lead the power 5 in rushing. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Locomark

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, section122 said:

Awesome as always @GunnerBill did you get a chance to watch the center from michigan olu olu?

 

Rimington and outland winner with a 3rd round projection, I was wondering what your thoughts were on him.

 

Yea. I have a 4th on him. I don't think my take on his is original or anything but he is good moving forwards, a bit less convincing in pass sets and I think he is limited in space. Not a guy you wanna be pulling much (if at all). 

[AmishRifle]

Thank you Gunner!

[eball]

As a guy who is admittedly NOT a draft junkie, stuff like this is great and I’ll be referring back to it as I watch the festivities tonight and this weekend.  Thank you, sir.

[FLFan]

As usual, great job.  Your analysis and insights are much appreciated. Thank you.  

[wppete]

Great breakdown! Thanks! 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Less 'real world' employment concerns!

*

More 'Hearn' football conjectures and analysis!
*

There are priorities!

😇😁😉

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A RT-only in round 1 is like giving up on life.   Beane should just start wearing sweat pants to the office.   

 

[OldTimer1960]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Awesome stuff, sincere thanks for all your efforts!

[John from Riverside]

what no kickers 🤓

 

 

just kidding gunner thank you for all of this
 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

what no kickers 🤓

 

 

just kidding gunner thank you for all of this
 

 

 

And punters are people too!!

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Bollocks to your draft! (and all the strong research and preparation you obviously put into it.)

[r henderson]

1) Darnell Wright OT Tennessee: I’m sorry, but Spencer Brown is going to get Josh killed. 4 year starter on the right side in SEC. Best RT in the draft.

2) Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee:  Big physical WR with soft hands and large catch radius. Very quick in the 10 yard radius for a man of his size (6ft 3in 220lbs)

3) Daiyan Henley LB Washington State: Tough defender with speed and coverskills. Equally good against the run and the pass.

4) Luke Schoonmaker TEMichigan:Playingbehind a very good TE in Erick All. Would bestarting for any other team in thecountry.Untapped potential.

5) Demarco Hellman S Alabama: A sleeperpickthat can turn out to be a good valuepick. 

6) Ricky Stromberg G/C Arkansas: A 4-yearstarter with versatility to play guard andcenter.
 

@GunnerBillGive me your opinion on my mock draft. Do I have a chance as a future GM? 😄

[hondo in seattle]

Thanks GB.

 

As the draft unfolds, I will reference this to see how you rated the young men picked.  

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, r henderson said:

1) Darnell Wright OT Tennessee: I’m sorry, but Spencer Brown is going to get Josh killed. 4 year starter on the right side in SEC. Best RT in the draft.

2) Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee:  Big physical WR with soft hands and large catch radius. Very quick in the 10 yard radius for a man of his size (6ft 3in 220lbs)

3) Daiyan Henley LB Washington State: Tough defender with speed and coverskills. Equally good against the run and the pass.

4) Luke Schoonmaker TEMichigan:Playingbehind a very good TE in Erick All. Would bestarting for any other team in thecountry.Untapped potential.

5) Demarco Hellman S Alabama: A sleeperpickthat can turn out to be a good valuepick. 

6) Ricky Stromberg G/C Arkansas: A 4-yearstarter with versatility to play guard andcenter.
 

@GunnerBillGive me your opinion on my mock draft. Do I have a chance as a future GM? 😄

 

Don't love Wright, but the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th rounders would all get thumbs up from me at those spots.