Gunner's 2023 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

It's that time again lads and ladies.... it's time to go on the record with my tape evaluations of the top Quarterbacks in the year's NFL Draft. I have only done the top 5 guys this year because a) time constraints and b) I think there is a pretty clear (and large) gap after these guys to the rest. What I will say is I am glad CJ Stroud plays in the Big Ten because otherwise Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky was a bit of an SEC lovefest. 

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (did not manage this with Richardson who came on my radar later);

- From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 5;

- Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film.  

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft. For example this isn't a great Quarterback class but it isn't anywhere near as bad as last year. I think all of these Quarterbacks might be worth picking in round 1 (especially in a generally weak class, might as well take a punt on the most important position) but I have to grade them not only against this draft and this year but against an objective scale so that in future years you can benchmark other classes - that might be better or worse - against it. 

 

So, off we go:

 

Bryce Young, Alabama, Junior

Games watched: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia (all 2021); Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, Kansas State (all 2022)

 

Pros:

-  Full field reader. Goes through progressions, reads the field, understands how to attack defenses.

- Understands protections and was responsible for setting them at Alabama. His combined ability to identify coverages, adjust protections and then narrow down his reads post snap make him the most mentally advanced QB in this class.

-  Natural creator. Some of the solutions he comes up with under pressure I really like. Had that innate sense of when to just move enough to exploit a passing lane or when the change the angle of his throwing arm.

- For a QB of his size is impressive in working the middle of the field.

- Stands in the pocket and slides up even against pressure. Sometimes it gets him in trouble and he will need to be careful in the NFL about the number of hits it exposes him to, but he plays the position how it is supposed to be played rather than bailing out.

- Good, snappy, fast release when he decides to get the ball out, which makes up somewhat for his moderate arm strength.

 

Cons:

-  Size. Not exactly an original take but he is small for a Quarterback. Only just over 5’10 and 204lbs he will have to prove that he can withstand the hits he is going to take in the NFL.

- His arm is only moderate. I think it is “good enough” to be a successful starting Quarterback in the NFL but he isn’t someone about whom you would say “he can make all the throws.” Those deep outs and corner routes seem to hang in the air and could be fodder for ball hawking DBs.

- Holds the ball. There are spots where he just holds it too long looking to force something. He reminds me a bit of Deshaun Watson in that he so naturally creative that he is always looking to create and he is going to take sacks that are on him.

- I think you can rattle his normal poise if you can get consistent pressure. It happened against Auburn and Georgia in 2021 and a little against Tennessee in 2022. Suddenly balls start hitting the dirt.

- Don’t love his accuracy working to the backside. He seems to loose his feet a bit as he opens his body up and balls can sail or dip on him unexpectedly in those scenarios.

 

Conclusion: If Bryce Young was 6ft2 he would have been the slam dunk 1st overall pick for months and nobody would even have questioned it. He has a natural playmaking ability and can create even when the play looks dead. But the size and the lack of top end arm talent does definitely lower the ceiling. And while he might be a guy who is always fun to watch play I’m not sure he has elite Quarterback potential. I think he is by a mile the most mentally advanced Quarterback in the class (and maybe the most mentally advanced in the last few classes) and he will have no issue adjusting to the NFL game from that standpoint, but I fear at some stage the physical limitations will hold him back from reaching the upper echelons. Borderline 1st/2nd round grade.

 

 

CJ Stroud, Ohio State, Redshirt Sophomore

Games watched: Penn State, Oregon, Michigan State (all 2021); Notre Dame, Indiana, Michigan, Georgia (all 2022)

 

Pros:

- Accurate passer to all three levels of the field. Has a nice, smooth, repeatable throwing motion and good, consistent footwork in the pocket.

- Throws the ball down the field. Good decision maker who is aggressive without taking too many major risks. Only 12 interceptions on 830 college pass attempts despite averaging 9.8 yards per attempt.

- Some big boy throws on tape. Throws the seam route better than any of the other QBs in this class with good timing, touch and velocity and also rarely misses on the post or the fade.

- Good size at 6’3, he is on the skinnier side but I’m not worried about his ability to survive contact.

- While he can look a bit awkward when he gets outside the pocket he is mobile enough to buy himself some time and some cheap first downs as a runner in the NFL while the game slows down for him.

- He can get through progressions on half field reads. Where he has his #1 and #2 on the same side he can get through his options and made the right throw, but needs to improve reading the full field.

 

Cons:

- A lot of designed read plays on early downs in the Ohio State offense and when they get to third and medium, third and long and those plays aren’t there he holds the ball too long for my liking.

- Not sure how well he diagnoses pressure. Georgia messed with his head some in the CFB semi final with lots of simulated blitzes early and then actual blitzes late in the game and he struggled to identify which was which.

- Can all get a bit messy when he has to play off script. He noticeably struggles once you ask him to play outside the structure of the offense including a tendency to roll towards pressure and away from the designed routes in the play concept.

- Tendency to be a bit high on some shorter routes which in the NFL can end up exposing your receivers to vicious hits.

- Fumbles. 10 in two seasons is way too many. Has to learn to protect the ball when getting hit.

- Slight worry that in his two biggest games of the year in 2022, vs Michigan and Georgia he didn’t play his best in the clutch at the very end of the game when his team needed plays in the 4th Quarter.

 

Conclusion: If someone gave me $50 today and told me I had to put it on the QB from this class most likely to be an NFL starter in 5 years time I’d put it on CJ Stroud. His floor is the highest in the class. I expect him to come in and run an NFL offense efficiently as a rookie if required. He has a natural accuracy, good throwing motion and footwork and a real calm demeanor on the field. The worry is that he is Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill who is basically the same guy in 5 years time that he is today. If I had a team ready to go where I thought just drop in a capable QB and we are going to be competitive I’d draft Stroud. If I was a rebuilding team wanting a QB to grow with me I’m not sure I would (and that might be why Houston are allegedly dithering). High 2nd round grade.

 

 

Anthony Richardson, Florida, Redshirt Sophomore

Games watched: Florida State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky (all 2022);

 

Pros:

- Excellent arm strength and he shows it off to good effect throwing down the field, particularly attacking the deep middle and generating chunk plays.

- As the year goes on I think you see him improve his touch and by the Texas A&M game there are a couple of throws, including one for a touchdown, where he has perfectly judged elevation to drop the ball in the bucket.

- Doesn’t seem to lose velocity even when throwing off platform and with different arm angles which can help him in situations where he is slow to process.

- One of the biggest surprises for me on his tape was how willing he is to try and re-set his feet and stay a passer when things breakdown. I expected to see him bailing more pockets than I did.

- Elite athlete with elite size who is going to be a dual threat player at the next level. Especially around the goalline his legs will be a real weapon and even if he isn’t your day 1 starter there are packages you can put into the gameplan for this guy the way the Ravens did with Lamar before he took over the starting job.

- Experience in the zone read, the RPO, running the QB draw…. None of these concepts are going to be new to him and a creative NFL OC will have them all in the playbook.

 

Cons:

- Accuracy. His throws are a bit all over the map. Ironically, I think he is more accurate on the deep ball than he is in the short and intermediate range.

- Inconsistent process. There is no pattern about when he tries to force a ball into a tight window, when he comes off that route and goes elsewhere and when he exits the pocket. That makes it hard for linemen and receivers to adjust to his tendencies.

- He hasn’t quite developed that internal sense or feel for pressure and the internal clock doesn’t go off when he should be moving or getting rid of the ball.

- Can be baited by zone defenders in the middle of the field into throwing interceptable balls. Got away with it more often in college than he will in the NFL and he is going to see a lot of complex zone looks as teams try to defend his legs.

- I don’t see any real evidence of pre-snap recognition or anticipatory throwing.

- While there are some areas of improvement, the Florida State film (his final college game) is one of the worst.

 

Conclusion: Let’s start with this – Anthony Richardson is the worst passer, as of now, of the 5 guys I evaluated. However, his deep ball is up there with CJ Stroud as potentially the best in the class and he is going to be a genuine dual threat playmaker in the NFL as soon as he gets on the field. If he plays as a rookie I expect him to smash RGIIIs rookie QB rushing record of 815 yards. He is more athlete and playmaker than Quarterback right now but he is basically a one year college starter and there are signs on the film that is still ascending. I think you have to allow for the possibility that he is not close to his ceiling yet. Mid 2nd round grade

 

 

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, Senior

Games watched: Alabama, South Carolina (both 2021); Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU (all 2022)

 

Pros:

- Prototypical size, good arm to drive the ball on a line down the field and athletic enough that he is going to make plays with his legs in the NFL.

- The best intermediate thrower in this class. If you want a guy who is going to find those chain moving plays then Hooker is it.

- Excellent ball placement to allow for YAC. You lose count watching his film of how many times he throws a slant or a comeback that a receiver is then able to take for serious yardage.

- Good pocket presence. Feels when one side is collapsing and slides his feet nicely, to find a platform to throw, steps up when he needs to and is willing to hang in with pressure in his face and throw the football.

- Footwork is excellent. When the offense is on schedule and he has time to set and throw he is as accurate as any of these guys and his feet are a big part of that.

- Had responsibility for protections at Tennessee and therefore comes in more advanced in that regard that probably any QB other than Young among this group.

 

Cons:

- The Tennessee offense has a lot of designed reads for him and he tends to lock on to his primary read too often. Gives you pause to wonder how much he really understands what he is seeing and how much of it is him executing a “paint by numbers” offense with superior talent at the college level.

- Deep ball accuracy. Misses too many open receivers down the field.

- Don’t love him when the play breaks down. Don’t see much natural instinct or feel to create in chaos. Tends to get a bit frantic and moves around to no effect.

- His delivery is a bit funky and I think faster NFL defenders will have that extra split second to get a jump on where he is going with the ball.

- Too many fumbles. 22 in two years at Tennessee. Part if it is his lack of comfort when the play breaks down, part of it is a faulty internal clock.

- Not a developed full field reader, which means there are occasionally dropped coverages on the opposite side of the field that he just never gets to exploiting.  

 

Conclusion: Hendon Hooker reminds me a lot of Kenny Pickett coming out last year. An older Quarterback prospect (he has just turned 25) who wasn’t a star straight away in college but who had a great final year putting up big numbers through feasting on defenses in the intermediate range. Like Pickett you wonder how much is the offense and how much is him and with Hooker there is the added complication of the ACL injury in November. As long as he recovers well from that I think the floor is pretty solid. The question is how high is the ceiling? Low 2nd round grade

 

 

Will Levis, Kentucky, Senior

Games Watched: Georgia, LSU, Florida, Iowa (all 2021); Tennessee, Miami (OH), Georgia, Florida (all 2022)

 

Pros:

- Prototypical size and a huge arm. He looks like a franchise quarterback and has the arm strength to throw to all areas of the field.

- Experience operating from under center and executing ‘conventional’ play-action concepts, is efficient attacking the gaps behind linebackers, especially on his 2021 film.

- Is asked to read the entire field in Kentucky’s offense and a lot of the downfield route combinations are pro-style west coast combinations, so he should be able to adapt to an NFL playbook reasonably quickly if he can get the terminology down.

- Plenty of big boy throws. He throws the corner really well, the seam pretty well, the deep out can occasionally get away from him a tad but he certainly has the arm talent to get it there even from the far hash and when he hits it man does it look pretty.

- He is a better runner than you think. Nobody is going to mistake him for a dual threat quarterback but he reminds me of Josh Allen when he scrambles. He gallops in the open field and almost looks for contact at the end of runs.

- No discernable reduction in his efficiency when off platform, he doesn’t mind ab-libbing when outside the pocket and is reluctant to ever give up on a play.

 

Cons:

- Don’t like the delivery, don’t like the drive through with the hips, and don’t even start me on the footwork. Part of the reason he is inaccurate is almost certainly that the fundamentals of his technique are all over the place.

- Has the worst feel in the pocket of these top 5 guys. Not only does he not feel pressure, but he rarely climbs the pocket (even when the opportunity arises), he rarely slides left or right to open a better passing lane and he general gets antsy too early in the down.

- There are dimes on Will Levis’s tape. There is a touchdown throw vs LSU in 2021 that is as good as any throw I have looked at from the guys in this class. But the ball placement just isn’t consistent, he struggles with touch.

- His field vision is not good enough at this stage to be high end NFL QB. The number of times he ends up taking the short gain when there is something bigger open down the field (and often not just open post-snap but an obvious opportunity pre-snap too) is really frustrating.

- Interceptions. He has thrown 23 picks in his two years as the starter at Kentucky. Too often he makes poor decisions and puts the ball in harm’s way.

- Regression from 2021 to 2022. His 2021 film is just better. I appreciate he lost his two best receivers and two best linemen to the NFL and this Kentucky not the Alabama conveyor belt but it is a cause for concern.

 

Conclusion – No quarterback drafted since Josh Allen reminds me of Josh Allen on his college film more than Will Levis. And some of the reasons I was a Josh sceptic coming out still apply here. You have to grade the film in front of you and the technique is messy, there is regression the final year and at times the decision making infuriates you. But like Allen, if Levis hits, he is going to hit big (and if he fails he probably fails big). The arm is huge and the toughness is there to see. I just think there is too much to correct. Like Allen this kid is now working with Jordan Palmer. That man has to earn his money to pull off the same trick twice. 2nd/3rd round borderline.

 

 

Okay there you go folks, flame away!! 

Edited April 22, 2023 by GunnerBill

[FireChans]

@GunnerBill I always think the OSU QB's will suck.  I know you've been doing this long enough to have graded Fields (whose career is TBD but I would not call him worth a 1st round yet) and Haskins (RIP).  What about Stroud as a prospect makes you think better or worse of him compared to those other two guys?

 

I feel like a common theme is that they are NEVER anticipatory throwers. Just doesn't really appear on their tape at all.

Edited April 22, 2023 by FireChans

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Looks great Gunner.

 

Can you please evaluate Stetson Bennett?

 

Thanks in advance!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

@GunnerBill I always think the OSU QB's will suck.  I know you've been doing this long enough to have graded Fields (whose career is TBD but I would not call him worth a 1st round yet) and Haskins (RIP).  What about Stroud as a prospect makes you think better or worse of him compared to those other two guys?

 

I feel like a common theme is that they are NEVER anticipatory throwers. Just doesn't really appear on their tape at all.

 

Stroud is a much more naturally accurate passer than Haskins or Fields. I didn't have a 1st on Haskins either. I did on Fields (because of the potential ceiling). I think Stroud is more "ready to play" than any of them. But as I say there, it wouldn't surprise me if in 5 years time he is a Dalton, Tannehill type. Especially if he ends up with the Colts where I think he has a reasonable structure around him and he can be pretty good early. Like Dalton was on those loaded Cincy teams. And then 4 years down the road on slightly less loaded rosters Dalton was still just pretty good, until the arm injury. I think that might be a similar career arc for Stroud. 

[SoCal Deek]

Gunner….I’m sorry but this is incomplete.  I didn’t see you mention anywhere that CJ went to my daughter’s high school. How could you miss that? 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Borderline 1st/2nd round grade

Seems like you should move to an NFL like point system (6.5 etc. )  it is a bit incoherent to rank consensus top five players as "second rounders". 

[NeverOutNick]

Great write up. I think Stroud is the best intermediate thrower in the class his placement is amazing there but totally agree with every one of your QB points when it comes to reading the field. That is definitely Strouds biggest weakness. He has amazing athletes catching the ball and even though he throws the most catchable ball and it’s usually perfectly placed on those intermediate routes, he zeroes in on his first or second read and that’s it 

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Seems like you should move to an NFL like point system (6.5 etc. )  it is a bit incoherent to rank consensus top five players as "second rounders". 

Lots of scouts use number base grading systems now

 

I’ve been using one probably 7-8 years

[hondo in seattle]

Not to be ethnocentric, but I'm embarrassed that a Brit knows 10,000 more about American college football than I do.

 

Nice job, GB!

[transplantbillsfan]

Thanks Gunner... but I just won't even read this cause we aren't drafting a QB.

 

Wide Receivers next, please!

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

Seems like you should move to an NFL like point system (6.5 etc. )  it is a bit incoherent to rank consensus top five players as "second rounders". 

 

I do have a point system. It isn't exactly the same as the one NFL.com uses, but it's similar. As do all NFL teams but they then have grade ranges brigaded by rounds. I designed it after speaking to a former NFL position coach and it is designed to replicate what teams do as closely as possible. Personally I don't think just spitting out the points means much to anyone the round brigading does. But broadly if you are above a 7.0 on my board you are a first round grade. Bryce Young is the best of these QBs by my grading he is a 6.9. 

 

And it isn't incoherent at all. You have to have an objective scale that stands up year by year and doesn't bend by strength of class. For my money that is where the NFL.com grades fail. They tend to benchmark just within a class reasonably well but not well across multiple classes. Hence you end up with Drew Sanders graded the same as Sauce Gardner.

 

Again it comes down to me that grading is not intended as being predictive in the same way that mocking is.

Edited April 23, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Solomon Grundy]

11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Lots of scouts use number base grading systems now

 

I’ve been using one probably 7-8 years

What QB would you take first? 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Excellent analysis as always on this OP! Much appreciated!

[Sierra Foothills]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I do have a point system. It isn't exactly the same as the one NFL.com uses, but it's similar. As do all NFL teams but they then have grade ranges brigaded by rounds. I designed it after speaking to a former NFL position coach and it is designed to replicate what teams do as closely as possible. Personally I don't think just spitting out the points means much to anyone the round brigading does. But broadly if you are above a 7.0 on my board you are a first round grade. Bryce Young is the best of these QBs by my grading he is a 6.9. 

 

And it isn't incoherent at all. You have to have an objective scale that stands up year by year and doesn't bend by strength of class. For my money that is where the NFL.com grades fail. They tend to benchmark just within a class reasonably well but not well across multiple classes. Hence you end up with Drew Sanders graded the same as Sauce Gardner.

 

Again it comes down to me that grading is not intended as being predictive in the same way that mocking is.

 

To add to what Gunner Bills said, Brandon Beane was quoted in today's Buffalo News article that the team ranks by round:

 

"The Bills assign grades by round, but that doesn’t mean they have 32 first-round players.

“A first-round guy is somebody, in an ideal world, you want to be a starter (early),” Beane said. “A second-round guy is somebody who is maybe not starting on Day 1, but hopefully becomes a starter.”

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/inside-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-process-meetings-mock-drafts-more-meetings-culminate-over-three-days/article_144a314c-e040-11ed-90c0-2bbd0a95d5aa.html

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

To add to what Gunner Bills said, Brandon Beane was quoted in today's Buffalo News article that the team ranks by round:

 

"The Bills assign grades by round, but that doesn’t mean they have 32 first-round players.

“A first-round guy is somebody, in an ideal world, you want to be a starter (early),” Beane said. “A second-round guy is somebody who is maybe not starting on Day 1, but hopefully becomes a starter.”

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/inside-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-process-meetings-mock-drafts-more-meetings-culminate-over-three-days/article_144a314c-e040-11ed-90c0-2bbd0a95d5aa.html

 

 

 

Yep. That is how teams do it from people I have spoken to. So my system 8.0 or above is true generational (none of those here). 7.0 or above is 1st round. 6.0 or above is 2nd round. 5.0 or above is third and so on.... 

 

You don't have to use the word round if that adds confusion for me it helps simplify it. 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Stroud is still my favorite QB in this class.  Interesting that all this negative stuff is coming out a week before the draft.  I suspect that some team (LV, Atlanta) desperately wants him to drop.  I think he is the best pure passer in the bunch.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Stroud is still my favorite QB in this class.  Interesting that all this negative stuff is coming out a week before the draft.  I suspect that some team (LV, Atlanta) desperately wants him to drop.  I think he is the best pure passer in the bunch.  

 

Yep. He is that. It's the ceiling that is the question. He struggles out of structure and I just wonder if there is enough gamer there. But he will be the best of these as a rookie IMO. 

[SirAndrew]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

@GunnerBill I always think the OSU QB's will suck.  I know you've been doing this long enough to have graded Fields (whose career is TBD but I would not call him worth a 1st round yet) and Haskins (RIP).  What about Stroud as a prospect makes you think better or worse of him compared to those other two guys?

 

I feel like a common theme is that they are NEVER anticipatory throwers. Just doesn't really appear on their tape at all.

I couldn’t agree more. Ohio State always has great skill position talent. I think this allows QB’s to get tons of open receivers. OSU just over matches everyone in the Big Ten. They’re the only modern team in a conference that’s stuck in a Stone Age style of play. 

[Buffalo716]

9 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

What QB would you take first? 

Oh man …. I’m not a huge fan of the class 

 

personally don’t see a blue chip guy… lots of guys with some developable traits… but I don’t see a 10 year starter 

 

Richardson might actually have the most success the first 2-3 years …. They will really struggle tackling him … he’s a thoroughbred… his running should allow his mediocre passing abilities to get by initially … not to mention the howitzer… I’ve seen the kid live … I’ve seen scouts drool over him… this is what happens when HS take the best athlete and make him a QB over 20 years… the prototype without the knowledge or experience to be a rhythm passer… he’s just the best athlete … but his running should give him a higher floor

 

I like Bryce young the Kid … but there’s a huge difference between college and the pros … I personally don’t care how athletic and how great a decision maker he is …. He uses his eyes very well and he throws with great anticipation…I just can’t hitch my wagon to a guy that little … it’s the big leagues … that’s why there’s college and the pros … but he’s extremely talented 

 

Stroud is probably the biggest enigma to scouts … some are very hot and some not so much… he has a lot of good things going for him …. He has good size … has shown the ability to place the ball in tough spots … has touch , can throw with some heat … 3 level ball placement …  best pure throws in the class… but for me … something’s always been missing with his game … I think he has tools that can be developed into a QB1… but he needs some seasoning to the league or can be ruined 

 

Will Levis is a prototype QB with inconsistencies  … he has QB 1 potential but some decent warts in his game … he has played under center which is a plus … and he’s a big strong kid who can extend plays … he can throw off platform moving and has a very plus arm … can threaten all 3 levels …. But he throws a decent amount of uncatchable balls… is slow to trust his eyes in short zone areas … threw like 20% of his balls last season at the Line of Scrimmage .. and just struggled to find confidence as a passer last season … give him a year under a good QB coach and he might be the jake locker that was supposed to be good 

grades - Stroud 6.4 (QB1 potential)

 

               Levis 6.2 (developmental QB)

 

 Richardson 6.0 ( Developmental QB)

 

           Young - incomplete ( His grade would be much higher from a pure film point… Then what I am willing to give him just because of his size… his talent is 6.7-6.9..  boarderline pro bowl 

 

As a pure quarterback I like his game more than Stroud… I just really don’t like his size …. is that sizeism? Maybe … if he was 6’2 unquestioned #1 pick … but he’s not 

 

and I didn’t do a write up on Hendon Hooker here but he is a solid senior ….

 

5.8 grade … high end backup with starter potential 

 

He might be my favorite quarterback to potentially take in the third or fourth  because value

 

i only did a cliff notes but always down to do a deeper dive if you wanted .. I’ve been doing HS QBs the last 2 years as a regional so I haven’t been doing as many NFL eligible QBs

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Simon Says]

Gunner, you have WAY too much time on your hands. Bills fans have little interest in drafting a QB

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

To add to what Gunner Bills said, Brandon Beane was quoted in today's Buffalo News article that the team ranks by round:

 

"The Bills assign grades by round, but that doesn’t mean they have 32 first-round players.

“A first-round guy is somebody, in an ideal world, you want to be a starter (early),” Beane said. “A second-round guy is somebody who is maybe not starting on Day 1, but hopefully becomes a starter.”

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/inside-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-process-meetings-mock-drafts-more-meetings-culminate-over-three-days/article_144a314c-e040-11ed-90c0-2bbd0a95d5aa.html

 

 

Beane the general manager Might assign a round to the grade of a player 

 

But most scouts are on a number based system now… 4.0-9.0

 

And you can get a general round based on the grade and position

 

And I would agree that there’s definitely not 32 guys with real first round grades … 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. He is that. It's the ceiling that is the question. He struggles out of structure and I just wonder if there is enough gamer there. But he will be the best of these as a rookie IMO. 

If he was willing to use his athleticism more… I think his ceiling would be raised

 

Problem is he’s never really wanted to use it which might cap his ceiling 

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. That is how teams do it from people I have spoken to. So my system 8.0 or above is true generational (none of those here). 7.0 or above is 1st round. 6.0 or above is 2nd round. 5.0 or above is third and so on.... 

 

You don't have to use the word round if that adds confusion for me it helps simplify it. 

 

9.0- generational

8.5- perennial all pro

8.0- all pro

7.5 Perennial pro bowl

7.0 pro bowl

6.5 (QB1 potential)

6.0 developmental 

5.5 high end backup starter potential 

5.0 backup 

4.5 QB3

4.0 Practice squad 

 

And then you have all of the Mishmash between them… 6.9 is boarderline pro bowl 

This is basically how I broke it down

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If he was willing to use his athleticism more… I think his ceiling would be raised

 

Problem is he’s never really wanted to use it which might cap his ceiling 

 

Yea he used in a bit in the playoff game. He looks naturally awkward running (which is odd given his athletic profile) but I agree if he could channel the athleticism into better performance when the play breaks down it would raise the ceiling.

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

9.0- generational

8.5- perennial all pro

8.0- all pro

7.5 Perennial pro bowl

7.0 pro bowl

6.5 (QB1 potential)

6.0 developmental 

5.5 high end backup starter potential 

5.0 backup 

4.5 QB3

4.0 Practice squad 

 

And then you have all of the Mishmash between them… 6.9 is boarderline pro bowl 

This is basically how I broke it down

 

 

 

 

I broke down my grading in another thread recently. I need a higher standard from non premium position guys.... so for example a long term starter at a premium position is a 1st rounder but to be a 1st rounder at a non-premium position I want perennial all pro type.

[Buffalo716]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he used in a bit in the playoff game. He looks naturally awkward running (which is odd given his athletic profile) but I agree if he could channel the athleticism into better performance when the play breaks down it would raise the ceiling.

 

 

I broke down my grading in another thread recently. I need a higher standard from non premium position guys.... so for example a long term starter at a premium position is a 1st rounder but to be a 1st rounder at a non-premium position I want perennial all pro type.

Yea I still grade non QBs on that scale but obviously 6.5 isn’t QB1 lol for a guard

 

but 6.5 would be day 1 starter … which would not be a round 1 grade for a guard for me … top 60 grade

 

If I’m taking a guard round one he’s gotta be a 7.0

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Mr. WEO]

Great work!

 

I’ve stood next to Young .  He’s certainly under 200 lbs. looks like a HS kid

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Great work!

 

I’ve stood next to Young .  He’s certainly under 200 lbs. looks like a HS kid

That’s why I can’t give him a grade

 

Because his film and attributes are a boarderline 7.0

 

But The NFL is a grown man’s game… And I just can’t grade him correctly with that that diminutive size

 

I could not take him in the top 10

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s why I can’t give him a grade

 

Because his film and attributes are a boarderline 7.0

 

But The NFL is a grown man’s game… And I just can’t grade him correctly with that that diminutive size

 

I could not take him in the top 10

He’ll go 1 or 2

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

He’ll go 1 or 2

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

We have that expression in American English. We don’t have “put another shrimp on the barbey,” which may have been what you were thinking of.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We have that expression in American English. We don’t have “put another shrimp on the barbey,” which may have been what you were thinking of.

 

Haha. That one is not ours!

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

Yea I saw luck live his Fr and SO year and he was mentally above every QB I’ve ever seen at that age 

 

and he was athletic 

 

Bryce is mentally so good… he knows where to go … where to look safety’s off … his arm is live … he can run …. If he was 6’2 he would be a right handed Steve young 

 

now the comp is tough because … I do Value nfl size… like he doesn’t need 6’4… but he’s the smallest QB I’ve seen besides flutie who was not a top pick

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Haha. That one is not ours!

 

But you have “Unlimited Salad and Breadsticks”, right?   

[1st&ten]

Great review Gunner---thanks for your work. Will you be doing any other positions before the draft ?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 1st&ten said:

Great review Gunner---thanks for your work. Will you be doing any other positions before the draft ?

 

Not written up in this depth I am afraid (just time constraints) but my composite draft thread will be out Wednesday, which includes a breakdown of my top 100 and my top 5 rankings at every position. 

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That’s not what I said

 

I said as player coach and scout for 30+ years… I can’t hitch my wagon to him

 

That’s why they measure people in the NFL

 

He’s just too small for me … But supremely talented

 

But I would not and could not take him first overall… That’s the difference between college and the pros

 

 

 

I think if you were a GM for one of the teams drafting top 5 you would take him because you need a QB.  FO's in the league are going to disagree with you Thursday. 

[4merper4mer]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally get it on the size. He would be the smallest guy ever to make it if he turned into a franchise guy. I get why that is hard to buy in to and it should surprise nobody if that ends up sinking him as a pro.

 

All that being said he is as mentally advanced as anyone I can remember. Luck was just before my time evaluating but certainly since. If anyone is going to break that mold it is going to be this kid with a phenomenal grasp of the position. He is streets ahead of Tua and Mac from the same offense. You and I agree if he was 6'2 he would be slam dunk the first overall pick. 

 

The thing for Carolina is eventually they need to **** or get off the pot (that might be an English expression, apologies if so). They have traded up to #1, I'd take Young. I'd do so knowing there is risk involved but taking a QB in round 1, even first overall, and them not working out doesn't kill you for years anymore in the way it used to. It might sink a regime, sure. But I suspect David Tepper has instructed this regime that they need to take a swing on drafting a QB. So they might be damned either way.

 

Spoiler alert: Luck was the most overhyped player in the history of football, especially from the mental aspect of the game.  He had physical talent for sure and seemed like an awesome dude and teammate but he got jitters in big spots and made dumb plays.  This was proven on several occasions and his early departure showed he just didn’t have the will to win a truly great QB needs.  That’s not a knock on him as a person.  The entire league was fooled.  The Colts actually ditched the greatest player in franchise history for him and eventually it put them into a still swirling tailspin.  Yet somehow to this day there is a large cult like group that will claim he was a success.

 

Also **** or get off the pot is a common phrase in America.  Even Canadians use it but they say “Poop quick or your behind will freeze on the outhouse”.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Spoiler alert: Luck was the most overhyped player in the history of football, especially from the mental aspect of the game.  He had physical talent for sure and seemed like an awesome dude and teammate but he got jitters in big spots and made dumb plays.  This was proven on several occasions and his early departure showed he just didn’t have the will to win a truly great QB needs.  That’s not a knock on him as a person.  The entire league was fooled.  The Colts actually ditched the greatest player in franchise history for him and eventually it put them into a still swirling tailspin.  Yet somehow to this day there is a large cult like group that will claim he was a success.

 

Also **** or get off the pot is a common phrase in America.  Even Canadians use it but they say “Poop quick or your behind will freeze on the outhouse”.

 

I am not arguing the toss on Luck. I was simply trying to come up with a QB who might have been considered as mentally prepared coming out as Young is. I couldn't think of anyone in the time I have been doing it (which takes you back to '14), and definitely nobody in 2013... so Luck was my guess. That was all my point was. Your opinion on Andrew Luck is well known. 

[4merper4mer]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not arguing the toss on Luck. I was simply trying to come up with a QB who might have been considered as mentally prepared coming out as Young is. I couldn't think of anyone in the time I have been doing it (which takes you back to '14), and definitely nobody in 2013... so Luck was my guess. That was all my point was. Your opinion on Andrew Luck is well known……and has been proven correct.

I took the liberty of adding a little at the end of your quote.

 

The point is that there is really no way to be certain….all you can do is your best.  Even when some things appear to be beyond doubt, like the mental aspects of Young’s game, you don’t know until you get there.  Davis Webb is widely seen as a future guru and likely had much of this mental capacity in college but clearly didn’t have everything else required.