A Question That Has Haunted Me - What If 2017 Draft Was Different By That Trade Back ?

[T master]

Okay let me first say that i am ecstatic that we have Josh Allen as our QB he fits exactly what the Bills are in most every way a guy that had to work & is still working to be the best version of himself every year not only for the Bills but the community yet i have often wondered or had this question of what if ?

 

In 2017 the Bills got a really good player in the first round of the draft & i understand why they traded away there pick to the Chiefs to add draft capital to add other picks & even though Tre White has been a really good player taken in the 1st for the Bills just what would the Bills look like if they would have kept that pick instead of trading it & drafted Mahomes ? 🤔

 

Has any on else here ever wondered just what might have been if that would have taken place ? Also i wonder the thoughts of those in charge of that draft about Mahomes did they think he wasn't that good or was there something they heard in a interview that they didn't like ?

 

In 2017 that was the year before Beane came here correct ? Whaley was still the GM at the time or am i thinking wrong, i know we got Josh in 2018 which again i am very glad of he is a beast but this question has alway haunted me in some ways would the Bills now have 2 SB's under their belt if that would have happened ?

 

Or in part is the reason why Mahomes is so good is because of the leadership of the offensive guru that is Andy Reid ? I know this is a question that would only be answered if we had a crystal ball to see what the change would be like but was wondering if you all have thought this as i have .

 

I know we all have had thoughts in the past of why certain players were passed over & hind sight is definitely 20/20 to all the arm chair QB's in the Bills mafia but after seeing what Mahomes has been able to do in the relatively short time he has been in the NFL i ask the "What IF" question & wonder if any here have done the same ? 

[Augie]

You might want to watch what you eat before you go to bed. 

 

I can’t be haunted by history like that, personally. 

[machine gun kelly]

T, enough on the what if in 2017.  If you truly love Josh, moving on that’s it.  No rethinking every decision they’ve ever made and Whaley was fired the day after draft day and brake was hired immediately.  If you do t think beane was talking under the radar with McD who hand picked him, we’ll.

 

josh Super Allen is our leader and is who is best for Buffalo.  We have lots of other opportunities to improve and no argument from me.

 

it’s certainly not Josh as the problem.  I’ll take him over Mahomes anyday and that doesn’t mean I do t think Mahones is the best outside of Josh.

 

Josh will impress you but maybe 15 years will need you to be impressed.

[90sBills]

I’ve thought about this as well. Mahomes has had the best start of any qb in the history of the league in terms of championships and individual records. With or without Reid he was going to be elite and taken any team to contention and probably a title. So of course Bills fans will wonder what if. But I truly think even if the Bills didn’t make that trade they wouldn’t have taken Mahomes at 10. They didn’t have the coaching foresight to see the talent in him. Not many did otherwise he’d went #1.

 

 

Edited April 16, 2023 by 90sBills

[808]

Whaley and monos have talked about mahomes and that draft at length on ty dunnes podcast a few times.  
terry loved mahomes. And as much as he may love josh. Everytime he sees mahomes im sure he thinks what if…

 

i know people here hate whaley but he and monos have been open about things and self deprecating on that pod. Good listens for sure. They dont try to pass the blame of what happened in their tenure with the bills. 

[NewEra]

Thinking “what if” is no way to live.  You should attempt to change that.

[NoSaint]

I’m just surprised no one else wondered about drafting mahomes before 

[CincyBillsFan]

55 minutes ago, T master said:

Okay let me first say that i am ecstatic that we have Josh Allen as our QB he fits exactly what the Bills are in most every way a guy that had to work & is still working to be the best version of himself every year not only for the Bills but the community yet i have often wondered or had this question of what if ?

 

In 2017 the Bills got a really good player in the first round of the draft & i understand why they traded away there pick to the Chiefs to add draft capital to add other picks & even though Tre White has been a really good player taken in the 1st for the Bills just what would the Bills look like if they would have kept that pick instead of trading it & drafted Mahomes ? 🤔

 

Has any on else here ever wondered just what might have been if that would have taken place ? Also i wonder the thoughts of those in charge of that draft about Mahomes did they think he wasn't that good or was there something they heard in a interview that they didn't like ?

 

In 2017 that was the year before Beane came here correct ? Whaley was still the GM at the time or am i thinking wrong, i know we got Josh in 2018 which again i am very glad of he is a beast but this question has alway haunted me in some ways would the Bills now have 2 SB's under their belt if that would have happened ?

 

Or in part is the reason why Mahomes is so good is because of the leadership of the offensive guru that is Andy Reid ? I know this is a question that would only be answered if we had a crystal ball to see what the change would be like but was wondering if you all have thought this as i have .

 

I know we all have had thoughts in the past of why certain players were passed over & hind sight is definitely 20/20 to all the arm chair QB's in the Bills mafia but after seeing what Mahomes has been able to do in the relatively short time he has been in the NFL i ask the "What IF" question & wonder if any here have done the same ? 

Here's my take on this alt history scenario:

 

The Bill's draft Mahomes in 2017.  He plays behind Tyrod for a while but is then thrown to the wolves later that year.  The Bills squeak into the playoffs because of the Bengals miracle in Baltimore but they lose the playoff game as their rookie QB, without much help on the offense, struggles in his first layoff game.  In 2018 the Bills have to liquidate their offense and Mahomes struggles. Things get better over the next 4 years as DaBald and Bean add talent to the offense and Mahomes exhibits elite QBing skills.  But the SB eludes the Bills as they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs a couple of times.

 

KC selects Josh Allen in 2018 with the idea that he will be developed behind Alex Smith.  Smith goes down half way through the season and Allen comes in and shines in Reid's O.  His rocket arm turns Kelsey & Hill into even deadlier weapons and his surprising running ability lead the Chiefs to the SB where they lose a close game to LA.  In 2019 Allen breaks out and directs a largely unstoppable Chiefs O that powers KC to SB victory's in 3 of their next 4 seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

Allen > Mahomes. Mahomes has arguably the greatest offensive minded coach in history, along with a top 5 tight end in history, and a really solid offensive line.

 

If Allen had Reid + Kelce + offensive line, then he would win MVP and the superbowl every year for the next decade.

[Punch]

It’s been pretty plainly stated that the Bills liked Mahomes but McDermott didn’t think it would send a good message to the roster if they picked him at 10. They were only taking him if they traded back and he was available. At least according to Tyler Dunne: https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-i-the-pressure-is-on-josh-allen

[90sBills]

40 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Allen > Mahomes.

In rushing attempts?

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, T master said:

Also i wonder the thoughts of those in charge of that draft about Mahomes did they think he wasn't that good or was there something they heard in a interview that they didn't like ?

[NewEra]

Anyone thinking that Mahomes would’ve turned out this good in Buffalo is smoking crack.  

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Anyone thinking that Mahomes would’ve turned out this good in Buffalo is smoking crack.  

The good crack … free based cocaine 😅🥹

[Buffalo Junction]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The good crack … free based cocaine 😅🥹

That Richard Pryor ish

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The good crack … free based cocaine 😅🥹

I’m going to quote myself and say holy **** did I just say the “good crack” lmaooo

Edited April 16, 2023 by Buffalo716

[SoCal Deek]

Is this even debatable? Tre White is a far better cornerback than Mahomes ever would’ve been. 

[somnus00]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Thinking “what if” is no way to live.  You should attempt to change that.

Ah, but what if he has changed that. 

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Allen > Mahomes. Mahomes has arguably the greatest offensive minded coach in history, along with a top 5 tight end in history, and a really solid offensive line.

 

If Allen had Reid + Kelce + offensive line, then he would win MVP and the superbowl every year for the next decade.

Agreed.  But Allen also makes far more mistakes (INT,Fumbles) than Mahomes does.    We love Allen for what he has brought to Buffalo, but he needs to tighten his game if he wants to win championships.

[97bills]

22 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Here's my take on this alt history scenario:

 

The Bill's draft Mahomes in 2017.  He plays behind Tyrod for a while but is then thrown to the wolves later that year.  The Bills squeak into the playoffs because of the Bengals miracle in Baltimore but they lose the playoff game as their rookie QB, without much help on the offense, struggles in his first layoff game.  In 2018 the Bills have to liquidate their offense and Mahomes struggles. Things get better over the next 4 years as DaBald and Bean add talent to the offense and Mahomes exhibits elite QBing skills.  But the SB eludes the Bills as they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs a couple of times.

 

KC selects Josh Allen in 2018 with the idea that he will be developed behind Alex Smith.  Smith goes down half way through the season and Allen comes in and shines in Reid's O.  His rocket arm turns Kelsey & Hill into even deadlier weapons and his surprising running ability lead the Chiefs to the SB where they lose a close game to LA.  In 2019 Allen breaks out and directs a largely unstoppable Chiefs O that powers KC to SB victory's in 3 of their next 4 seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

Same way I see it… Mahomes and Allen are pretty much equal in talent, ITS THE COACHES!!!! Mahomes has one of the best play designers , and always seems to call the right play at the right time… guys wide open for walk in T.D in the Super Bowl. And Allen has Dorsey a rookie play caller. Who doesn’t know how to design plays. Look at our running backs for that evidence, I just hope Dorsey learned a lot last year or it might be two years wasted, and us finding a new OC. 

[Mat68]

22 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I’ve thought about this as well. Mahomes has had the best start of any qb in the history of the league in terms of championships and individual records. With or without Reid he was going to be elite and taken any team to contention and probably a title. So of course Bills fans will wonder what if. But I truly think even if the Bills didn’t make that trade they wouldn’t have taken Mahomes at 10. They didn’t have the coaching foresight to see the talent in him. Not many did otherwise he’d went #1.

 

 

Having Hunt Hill Kelcle and Ried wasnt Ivory Jones and Clay.  Mahomes would have faced a similar road that Allen had. 

[Zerovoltz]

First...the simple answer is the Bills would still have Josh Allen almost certainly.  I'll explain that below.

 

Let's once again go back over how that all played out....

 

Early in 2017, the Pegulas did some wierd stuff when they hired Sean McDermott, a defensive minded HC...just a couple months before the draft.  They retained Whaley to help with the draft and all parties knew that Whaley would be gone, and that a new GM would be hired AFTER the draft.  This is important because while Whaley and Terry Pegual both liked Mahomes, McDermott wasn't a QB evaluator, and he didn't want to make a call on the next franchise QB until the new GM was in place and they could all evaluate and get on the same page when they made such a huge and important choice.  Going into the 2017 Draft, the Bills were NOT taking a QB...even if they had stayed at 10, that pick wasn't Mahomes.  It's been well established that the Saints were set to draft Mahomes at pick 11 if he was there....that would be different.  I speculate that if the bills stayed at 10, maybe the pick would have been Marshon Lattimore, who the Saints ended up with at 11.  IDK.  Anyhow...The Bills still would have arrived at the 2018 draft, with Beane and needing a QB.  They likely would have had a similar draft position and assets, minus the extra 1st they got from the Mahomes trade.  HOWEVER....the Bills did not use draft capital involved in the Mahomes trade to manuever for Allen.  That draft capital had more to do with manuevering for Edwards.  The Bills loved Allen..and they were in position to get him regardless of the Mahomes trade or not.

 

So...  Not much difference..Allen would still be your QB......Lattimore instead of White?  

 

Biggest difference owuld be Mahomes as a Saint....with Sean Payton.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Zerovoltz
date

[chongli]

I'll take Josh over Mahommes any day. In the end, we'll see who has more SB rings.

[Maynard]

22 hours ago, freddyjj said:

God…can you imagine loving/defending these people?

[Success]

There is a lot more to KC's 2 SB's than Mahomes.  

 

I'd argue that both Mahomes & Allen have been as good in the playoffs, and also had as much struggle at times.  But Reid's coaching and the balanced composition of their team has made a very big difference.

 

And I think McD is good. But he's not as good as Reid, and the Bills team, for the most part, has been very top heavy w/ Allen, Diggs and just a few others.  KC has been deeper and better.

 

[Ya Digg?]

Wait, the Bills could’ve had Mahomes?!?!

[Utah John]

Not taking anything away from Mahomes, but he did get really lucky with respect to his surroundings.  First, he got to redshirt his rookie year, learning on the job while watching Alex Smith run the offense.  No too-early pressure on Mahomes, and plenty of time for him to figure out what's what in the pros.  Second, he got Andy Reid as his HC, a brilliant offensive mind who consistently outthinks opponent coaches and who keeps coming up with creative ways for Mahomes to use his talents.  Third and fourth, Kelce and Hill.  Fifth, a front office that keeps finding ways to keep the roster intact even as players come and go.  When a weakness appears in a given season, that area becomes a strength the next.  

 

Again, this is nothing against Mahomes, but it's worth considering whether he'd have done as well in Buffalo or anywhere else.  

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, chongli said:

I'll take Josh over Mahommes any day. In the end, we'll see who has more SB rings.

Is this hubris, delusional, or sarcasm?

 

Most fans that follow the Bills just hope (wish) for ONE Superbowl win just to know what that feeling is like. For a franchise that hasn’t won a Superbowl ever don’t you think it’s unrealistic to expect multiple? Just because your bias for Allen won’t allow for the possibility of Mahomes being better? 

 

Mahomes can be the best right now or the best ever as long as the Bills get one. It isn’t a competition between Mahomes vs Allen. At least it shouldn’t be. It’s a team sport where success is measured by Superbowl wins. Let’s get that one. Bills fans deserve this. 

[GETTOTHE50]

2 hours ago, Success said:

There is a lot more to KC's 2 SB's than Mahomes.  

 

I'd argue that both Mahomes & Allen have been as good in the playoffs, and also had as much struggle at times.  But Reid's coaching and the balanced composition of their team has made a very big difference.

 

And I think McD is good. But he's not as good as Reid, and the Bills team, for the most part, has been very top heavy w/ Allen, Diggs and just a few others.  KC has been deeper and better.

 

deeper on offense, but not defense or special teams. unfortunately, the latter two don’t make a difference when we play each other. 

[Dr.Sack]

Mahomes being in Buffalo wouldn’t really mean much 2017-2018 given a history of poor drafting, and lack of surrounding talent. Where it gets interesting is 2019 - assuming KC traded up for Allen in 2018. 

[808]

Mahomes is a better qb imo. Its not equal talent. 
physical traits josh is bigger. 
mahomes has just as strong of an arm. 
 

josh still doesnt throw guys open as much as he likes to see them open then rips it. He gets the job done so its not that big of a deal. 
 

but PM doesnt make the same mistakes and doesnt gamble as much. Hes got rings. And has broken soo many records already. 
this doesnt mean josh is garbage. He is really good too its not that big of a deal. But mahomes is clearly better imo . And as a bills fan im fine with that. Idk why some take it soo personal. Both are really really good. Chill

[Dr.Sack]

8 minutes ago, 808 said:

Mahomes is a better qb imo. Its not equal talent. 
physical traits josh is bigger. 
mahomes has just as strong of an arm. 
 

josh still doesnt throw guys open as much as he likes to see them open then rips it. He gets the job done so its not that big of a deal. 
 

but PM doesnt make the same mistakes and doesnt gamble as much. Hes got rings. And has broken soo many records already. 
this doesnt mean josh is garbage. He is really good too its not that big of a deal. But mahomes is clearly better imo . And as a bills fan im fine with that. Idk why some take it soo personal. Both are really really good. Chill

I’d argue Allen would have at least 1 title if we drafted Mahomes and the Chiefs traded up to get Allen in 2018. Would we have a championship? I am not so convinced considering our lack of complimentary running game, given Allen’s running production and not having Kelce or Hill. Reid clearly has gotten the most out of Mahomes talent.

[chongli]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Is this hubris, delusional, or sarcasm?

 

Most fans that follow the Bills just hope (wish) for ONE Superbowl win just to know what that feeling is like. For a franchise that hasn’t won a Superbowl ever don’t you think it’s unrealistic to expect multiple? Just because your bias for Allen won’t allow for the possibility of Mahomes being better? 

 

 

It's confidence. And the Bills already have two world championships, but the AFL title game back then wasn't called the Super Bowl. Buffalo got theirs in the 1964 and 1965, and KC got theirs in 1966 and 1970, 2019, and 2022 (the latter three being SB's). But SB or world championship, it's just a name. They have 4, we have 2.

Edited April 17, 2023 by chongli

[808]

4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

First...the simple answer is the Bills would still have Josh Allen almost certainly.  I'll explain that below.

 

Let's once again go back over how that all played out....

 

Early in 2017, the Pegulas did some wierd stuff when they hired Sean McDermott, a defensive minded HC...just a couple months before the draft.  They retained Whaley to help with the draft and all parties knew that Whaley would be gone, and that a new GM would be hired AFTER the draft.  This is important because while Whaley and Terry Pegual both liked Mahomes, McDermott wasn't a QB evaluator, and he didn't want to make a call on the next franchise QB until the new GM was in place and they could all evaluate and get on the same page when they made such a huge and important choice.  Going into the 2017 Draft, the Bills were NOT taking a QB...even if they had stayed at 10, that pick wasn't Mahomes.  It's been well established that the Saints were set to draft Mahomes at pick 11 if he was there....that would be different.  I speculate that if the bills stayed at 10, maybe the pick would have been Marshon Lattimore, who the Saints ended up with at 11.  IDK.  Anyhow...The Bills still would have arrived at the 2018 draft, with Beane and needing a QB.  They likely would have had a similar draft position and assets, minus the extra 1st they got from the Mahomes trade.  HOWEVER....the Bills did not use draft capital involved in the Mahomes trade to manuever for Allen.  That draft capital had more to do with manuevering for Edwards.  The Bills loved Allen..and they were in position to get him regardless of the Mahomes trade or not.

 

So...  Not much difference..Allen would still be your QB......Lattimore instead of White?  

 

Biggest difference owuld be Mahomes as a Saint....with Sean Payton.

 

Id urge you to go listen to the tyler dunne podcasts that have had whaley and monos. 
they are pretty upfront they your assumption that they were retained and knew they would be gone after doesnt really add up with them. 
 

also terry absolutely gushed over mahomes every chance he could get. But the rex hire got him in a weird spot and i think he wanted to let them do their jobs. 
 

but go give it a listen. I think it would change your mind on how that played out. 
 

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, 808 said:

Id urge you to go listen to the tyler dunne podcasts that have had whaley and monos. 
they are pretty upfront they your assumption that they were retained and knew they would be gone after doesnt really add up with them. 
 

also terry absolutely gushed over mahomes every chance he could get. But the rex hire got him in a weird spot and i think he wanted to let them do their jobs. 
 

but go give it a listen. I think it would change your mind on how that played out. 
 

 

Everyone knew that the scouts and GM would be fired.  Whaley didn't hire McDermott.  

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/bills-scouts-bracing-for-a-post-draft-house-cleaning/

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/26/talk-in-buffalo-that-doug-whaley-could-be-on-the-way-out/

 

 

McDermott himself said he wasn't ready to draft a QB and wanted the new GM to be part of that process (he knew a new GM was coming) 

 

https://theathletic.com/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chiefs-bills-nfl-draft-trade-patrick-mahomes/16opv91al12zs1j8dzwew6ol9e

 

 

Whaley...after saying they had worked on a trade for weeks, and knew they were trading out of the pick ,then says....but it's alway a possibility....well, yeah, in the sense that if they were at 10 and Mahomes was on the board...it was in fact, possible...and so was Watson, and Deshone Kizer, etc.  

 

The Bills, were not in the QB market in 2017.

[90sBills]

58 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

It's confidence. And the Bills already have two world championships, but the AFL title game back then wasn't called the Super Bowl. Buffalo got theirs in the 1964 and 1965, and KC got theirs in 1969 and 1970, 2019, and 2022 (the latter three being SB's). But SB or world championship, it's just a name. They have 4, we have 2.

Really??? You’re counting AFL titles as equal to Superbowls? That’s like touting a USFL or XFL championship if those leagues happen to merge with the NFL at some point in the future. C’mon man. That’s straight crazy talk. Maybe that’s where your misplaced confidence is coming from.

 

I don’t have much confidence that they could win multiple championships. I just hope that Allen and the team can learn from their mistakes and able to get it done ONE year. Probably in a year that KC is down. I mean, Mahomes can’t be in every AFCCG can he? 

[chongli]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Really??? You’re counting AFL titles as equal to Superbowls? That’s like touting a USFL or XFL championship if those leagues happen to merge with the NFL at some point in the future. C’mon man. That’s straight crazy talk. Maybe that’s where your misplaced confidence is coming from.

 

 

Nope. There were two major football leagues in the 60's: the NFL and the AFL. Both leagues have a right to call their champions world champions, just like before the NCAA football playoffs when the voters voted and there was a split championship (like in 2003, where they AP voted for USC and the coaches' poll had LSU). Oh, and a number of those AFL teams did beat the NFL early on for the SB, like KC in SB IV and the Jets in SB III.

[808]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Everyone knew that the scouts and GM would be fired.  Whaley didn't hire McDermott.  

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/bills-scouts-bracing-for-a-post-draft-house-cleaning/

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/26/talk-in-buffalo-that-doug-whaley-could-be-on-the-way-out/

 

 

McDermott himself said he wasn't ready to draft a QB and wanted the new GM to be part of that process (he knew a new GM was coming) 

 

https://theathletic.com/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chiefs-bills-nfl-draft-trade-patrick-mahomes/16opv91al12zs1j8dzwew6ol9e

 

 

Whaley...after saying they had worked on a trade for weeks, and knew they were trading out of the pick ,then says....but it's alway a possibility....well, yeah, in the sense that if they were at 10 and Mahomes was on the board...it was in fact, possible...and so was Watson, and Deshone Kizer, etc.  

 

The Bills, were not in the QB market in 2017.

Did you happen to listen to the pods with monos/whaley talking about that draft? 
also the sammy watkins draft episode is good too. 
 

Should give it a listen its pretty insightful. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/15/2023 at 8:44 PM, 90sBills said:

I’ve thought about this as well. Mahomes has had the best start of any qb in the history of the league in terms of championships and individual records. With or without Reid he was going to be elite and taken any team to contention and probably a title. So of course Bills fans will wonder what if. But I truly think even if the Bills didn’t make that trade they wouldn’t have taken Mahomes at 10. They didn’t have the coaching foresight to see the talent in him. Not many did otherwise he’d went #1.

 

 

Championships fine.Best statistical start? Didn’t Allen just surpass Marino for most TDs in a players first 5 seasons? 

[bmur66]

Tyrod Taylor was the QB and they didn't draft a QB when they were picking at 10. I was jumping up and down for Mahomes. McD and Beane were lucky the way it worked out with getting Allen or we would probably be looking at a new coach by now.