Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They’re not going to take a creative avenue here and package players and picks to try and get impact.

 

If you could ship Gabe and a 3rd for Hopkins, but they need money relief. I don’t like the Jeudy idea as much, but he’d take #27 straight up or some combination. 
 

As fans, it’s hard to know who is available? 

 

They believe in Draft - Develop and Retain so they can’t afford eating dead cap in trades. 

I would totally do Jj for 27

 

I don’t believe that there’s a wide receiver in this draft that matches his talent

 

It would keep us from drafting a linebacker at 27 which I don’t want

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

I’ll take him back.  I think he’s underrated and is good enough to win a SB with.  And he’ll be cheap and allow us to spend draft picks elsewhere.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would totally do Jj for 27

 

I don’t believe that there’s a wide receiver in this draft that matches his talent

 

It would keep us from drafting a linebacker at 27 which I don’t want

In college Jeudy was consistently dominant. 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Good post.

 

Yeah you’re right, Beane said it today in words and tone, they’re kind of stuck. They’ve done all they can to keep the band together that has won 3-Straight AFC East Titles. 

 

There seems to be a couple more restructure levers to pull, but Beane sounded like reluctant to that and I would be too.

 

He said they’re tight next year as well. 
 

 

I don’t want him to pull every restructure lever either we need to save some of that for future moves

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Like Scott Law and I have said, the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency at WR 2.

 

They just picked up a 5’6” WR who has 64 career catches and Beane said they’re trying to finagle McKenzie’s contract despite his disastrous showing last year. 
 

If the FO brings back Phillips and Lawson on vet minimum deals, that’s $2.4M less in cap space and Beane said they were at $9M free today, with some provisioned for rookies and IR.

 

So it’s looking like Dodson is your MLB going into the draft, or they’ll have to dip into the restructure pot again. 
 

You could trade Oliver, but then you would have to take some of that $10M and re-sign Phillips or someone else, unless you’re drafting two DTs. 

2 days into the offseason in which there hasn’t been one legit WR2 acquired by any team:  “the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency in finding a WR2”

 

you can’t make this stuff up. 
 

[DapperCam]

It’s always hard to tell with our RBs, because our run blocking has been pretty poor his entire tenure with the Bills, but he also faces light boxes all the time. I think he is a slightly above average back in balance, short area quickness and vision. But he has no top end speed and he doesn’t have the power to run a LBer over (or even a DB really) for a first down. He also seems to fumble a lot and drop passes (at least to my eyes).

 

I would rather we give Cook a chance to carry the load and bring in a bruiser that will get 1 yard no matter what. Even if he had to drag three guys.

Edited March 17, 2023 by DapperCam

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Good post.

 

Yeah you’re right, Beane said it today in words and tone, they’re kind of stuck. They’ve done all they can to keep the band together that has won 3-Straight AFC East Titles. 

 

There seems to be a couple more restructure levers to pull, but Beane sounded like reluctant to that and I would be too.

 

He said they’re tight next year as well. 
 

 

Blockbuster never felt they needed to change to fend off Netflix, yet here we are.  
 

I don’t hate running it back, as I do think this defense - when healthy - is probably a Top 5 unit. 
 

But, here we stand.. the Offense is still lacking around Allen when compared to KC, CIN and MIA, with NYJ right behind us. 

 

Doesn’t mean it stays that way .. but as of today, that’s where we’re at. 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by SCBills

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

2 days into the offseason in which there hasn’t been one legit WR2 acquired by any team:  “the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency in finding a WR2”

 

you can’t make this stuff up. 
 

Actually I wasn’t whining at all.

 

SC, ScottLaw and John were having a good conversation on the roster construction and remaining holes.

 

Cool for you, got your cheap shot in.

 

But Beane and staff like Gabe and have said so a lot. And because of their cap and holes on D, it’s hard envisioning where another legit pass catcher is coming from despite some fans wanting it. 
 

Nobody was insulting anyone, until you showed up. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Can certainly do worse but he commands no attention from defenses.  He’s not explosive enough to break big runs and he’s not powerful enough to get the tough yards.  

 

He looked powerful enough to me when he got the game winning first down v Miami, carried 4 guys on his back for 10 yards if I recall correctly.

 

The guy is all heart and team first. If you can get him back for 3 yrs 9 mil I would do it no hesitation.

 

Running back is not the issue, it's the soft as butter O-line with all the push of a box jellyfish. Beef up the line and watch Cook / Motor / Hines go to work.

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'm not for or against the idea of Singletary coming back. I'm simply aware of the RB market situation and the emphasis this regime places on bringing back their own and team chemistry.

 

Motor is one of the most popular guys in the locker room. And we've always carried 4 RB's on the roster. Wouldn't shock me to see Hines taking Taiwan's spot being a core Special Teamer who provides more on offense than Taiwan did.

Hines is not a gunner. Taiwan has a very specific ST role especially with the Bills. The Bills will have a 3rd rb get snaps. Either Motor, another FA, or  a 5th or 7th round pick. 

[Playoffs?]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gore averaged 3.6 against the same teams and the chiefs’ ypc since 2019 is under 4.7. Come up with a more empirically sound argument.

See above.

Why keep comparing him to Frank Gore?  
 

And are yards per carry the only metric that should be used to determine how good a runningback is?

[LeGOATski]

Yep, Singletary is just fine. They're a prolific offense without a star RB or big-bodied WR. If one of those types of players falls in their lap and is the BPA, then great.

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gore averaged 3.6 against the same teams and the chiefs’ ypc since 2019 is under 4.7. Come up with a more empirically sound argument.

See above.

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

[GreggTX]

I agree that Motor is above average. He's very shifty, has good vision and balance, but his receiving skills and speed hold him back. If he could run a 4.4 and had bigger, softer hands, he'd be elite. I'd like either him, J Williams or B Robinson. The problem with our run game has long been the OL. McGovern is an average pass protector, but a very poor run blocker. I fear the rest of the OL will remain unchanged. If I were a FA RB, I don't think Buffalo would be a team I'd target in FA. I hope Cook improves in year 2, but he'll never be a workhorse type or a between the Tackles runner. I don't honestly see much of a role for Hines outside KR and I expect Hasty to win the PR job. I think that McDermott's relatively little experience working with offense as a former S and DC is the main reason that he and Beane continually sell the OL short of talent. Most other top teams have significantly better blocking and running, especially KC and Cincinnati. I think it's holding us back and placing too much pressure on Josh to carry the offense. This, in turn, has been one reason why he's turned the ball over so much.

[Freddie's Dead]

And I thought the McKittrick hate thread was wack.  All Motor does is produce when they hand him the rock, albeit behind a bottom half run blocking o line.  If we can get him cheap, he should stay.  Who else is out there that can deliver 4.7ypc at Motor's price?

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

I would say he’s an average back at best.

 

His YPC are a bit inflated IMO as he runs against a lot of light boxes and doesn’t get a ton of 3rd and shorts/goal line touches. (He did get more in 2022)

 

I do like his game as he plays tough. But he definitely has some flaws. (Fumbling, no break away speed)

No speed and no burst,  they need to upgrade the position and stop expecting Allen to run. 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over hundreds of carries, it all averages out. Trust me. The sample size with Singletary (672 carries) is huge at this point.

672 carries in 4 years is really not a lot at all though and he’s never had 900 yards in his career. So  That’s an average of 10 carries a game basically over that span . Josh Jacobs alone last year had 340 lol.

 

My point is: He is only getting 10 carries a game, which is going to keep him more fresh/efficient.

 

He runs a lot against light boxes. And he didn’t get a ton of short yardage carries.

 

You add all that up and it makes sense why is YPC is good.
 

Give him 15-20 carries a game like a typical starting RB, and couple that with going against more 8 man fronts/short yardage carries? inarguably his YPC would drop significantly 

Edited March 17, 2023 by BillsFan130

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

I’ve got no problem using Josh Allen as a threat, but I would much rather it be a decoy more than actually having him run it in places where he’s going to take a hit
 

Some of those interceptions that he had last year could’ve been prevented if we could have just ran the ball inside the red zone

[Charles Romes]

Singletary’s ypc numbers are artificially skewed upward by him not being good enough to be handed the rock when the tough short yardage yards are needed. Never having to run against short yardage defenses will certainly help your ypc. I am so sick of being 2nd and 2 and then worrying about how we are going to get the first down and the massive punishment josh is going to be taking the next few plays. Should have overpaid a little for Jamaal. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Looks like the subject line of this thread is inaccurate.  As is witnessed here, you can argue about anything.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[Coach Tuesday]

On reflection, I’ve got more wiggle than burst, too.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

 

 

Inarguably is a bit strong. But yeah, probably a bit above average. He's always among the leaders in missed tackles and he does very well at YPA despite an OL that is probably below average.

 

He's a good player. Not great, but good. Wouldn't be surprised to see them bring him back, based largely on what the price ends up being.

 

2 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

 

 

You don't need to be fast. You need to be effective.

 

Motor is effective.

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloFan68]

I felt Motor was coming into his prime and with an improved O-line it was just going to be a matter of how many touches per game he got and he could be one of the top 16-20 backs in the league. JMHO

Go Bills!!!!!

[Thurman#1]

32 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Singletary’s ypc numbers are artificially skewed upward by him not being good enough to be handed the rock when the tough short yardage yards are needed. Never having to run against short yardage defenses will certainly help your ypc. I am so sick of being 2nd and 2 and then worrying about how we are going to get the first down and the massive punishment josh is going to be taking the next few plays. Should have overpaid a little for Jamaal. 

 

 

Yeah, um, he's got 10 first downs and one TD on 3rd down and 1-3 yards this year, behind that OL that isn't great.

 

Five attempts the year before that, for 42 yards, another TD and three first downs.

 

For his career, he's got two carries on 4th and 1-3 and on both he got enough for first downs, though one was actually a TD instead.

 

For his career, 35 attempts at 3rd and 1-3 and 24 first downs.

 

Again, behind that line. He does lose a lot of carries because Allen is so good and so tough and running Allen means you have a man advantage. 

 

But Singletary is pretty good at it, though behind that line.

 

[Chaos]

19 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, um, he's got 10 first downs and one TD on 3rd down and 1-3 yards this year, behind that OL that isn't great.

 

Five attempts the year before that, for 42 yards, another TD and three first downs.

This is only meaningful if the context of how many 3 and 1-3 yard situations are given.   If Singletary is used in 80% of those situtations and is converting them 100% of the time, he is an incredible stud.   If he is used in 10% of the situations and converts 50%, then he is just getting conversions by the element of suprise on occassion.  So your statistical support doesn't really allow any conclusions to be reached. 

[John from Riverside]

Draft running backs, rinse repeat

 

Draft Bijan Robinson‘s back up cost control contract big body can catch

[Magox]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I just don’t think that he’s the type of back that the bills are looking for

 

And it’s not that he’s not good he’s just not a pounder

 

James Cook replicates a lot of what he does

I agree that the Bills are probably looking for more of thicker bodied, in-between the tackle runner.   Beane pretty much said as much in his presser.  I’d be happy to have Singletary again, I just don’t think that is who they are looking for.

 

I thought Foreman was going to be the guy they picked up, now that these sort of options are dwindling down they either get their guy in the next few days or they settle on a low end vet to compete with a RB draft choice to fill that spot.

[BillsFan130]

One final thing I’ll say: I think we need to have more context when looking at stats and in this case, his high YPC

Jimmy G had a better passer rating than Josh the last two years.

 

Does that make him an elite QB and better than Josh? No.

 

He throws against way more single high safeties and is going to get a lot of more 1 on 1s. Teams sell out to stop SFs run so Jimmy G benefits.

 

For singletary, teams sell out to stop Josh with two deep safeties so Singletary benefits with his YPC.

 

Pacheco for context averaged 4.9 YPC with the chiefs this year. Same rules apply as teams sell out to stop Mahomes with two deep 

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I just don’t think that he’s the type of back that the bills are looking for

 

And it’s not that he’s not good he’s just not a pounder

 

James Cook replicates a lot of what he does

This is a fair assessment.  Singletary is a good RB, but his skills are replicated by Cooks’ who is cheaper, younger and faster.  They tried to pair Singletary with a more powerful runner in Moss, but Moss didn’t pan out (maybe due to injury?). I think they are looking for what they hoped Moss would be to go with Cook.

[Billzgobowlin]

I think OBD has questions of whether Singletary is good enough to start in this league.  He has no elusiveness and no speed, heck he can't even find cutback lanes most of the time.  I'm starting to think the line wasn't as big of an issue as the RBs themselves

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

Here we go with the 40 time obsession.  Way overblown.  Yes, better to be faster than slower, but RBs very rarely just run straight through gaping holes.  They need to have vision, ability to avoid or run through tackles - both of which Singletary does well.  No doubt, there are occasions when, after he has gotten to the open field with the above mentioned skills, he gets caught where a speedier player might have gotten more yardage, but I think it is unrealistic to think that there are tons and tons of yards left on the field due to that.  Singletary is a good starting RB is he perfect? No, but neither are most other RBs.

 

There is considerably more to being a good NFL player than straight line speed.

[Niagara Dude]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Here we go with the 40 time obsession.  Way overblown.  Yes, better to be faster than slower, but RBs very rarely just run straight through gaping holes.  They need to have vision, ability to avoid or run through tackles - both of which Singletary does well.  No doubt, there are occasions when, after he has gotten to the open field with the above mentioned skills, he gets caught where a speedier player might have gotten more yardage, but I think it is unrealistic to think that there are tons and tons of yards left on the field due to that.  Singletary is a good starting RB is he perfect? No, but neither are most other RBs.

 

There is considerably more to being a good NFL player than straight line speed.

Do you even understand anything about burst to the line?  probably not.  Why do you think Allen is running so much and taking so many hits,  with teams loading up against the pass the running game is there.  They have not had a starting level RB in years,  Singletary relies on quickness and making guys miss.  That is not going to happen against most NFL defensive players.  He is an average RB and no team will offer him a contract because of it.

 

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Inarguably is a bit strong. But yeah, probably a bit above average. He's always among the leaders in missed tackles and he does very well at YPA despite an OL that is probably below average.

 

He's a good player. Not great, but good. Wouldn't be surprised to see them bring him back, based largely on what the price ends up being.

 

 

 

You don't need to be fast. You need to be effective.

 

Motor is effective.

 

How about you Singletary supporters explain if he was so good and it's all on the line why no other teams are interested.  Sure resign him at league min,  but if they want to improve on offence they need a starting level RB so were not asking our QB to run the ball and expose him to hits.

[skibum]

Singletary, Cook, and Hines compliment each other well. Singletary can run between the tackles, Cook and Hines can go around the outside, and Hines can catch. I think it's a pretty good RB group. The biggest issue last year was that Cook took 2/3 of a season to get it together. If he comes out strong this year, Singletary will become option B and we will all be happy.  

[thenorthremembers]

5'7 206 with fumbling issues.   I'd be surprised if he is back.

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

 

How about you Singletary supporters explain if he was so good and it's all on the line why no other teams are interested.  Sure resign him at league min,  but if they want to improve on offence they need a starting level RB so were not asking our QB to run the ball and expose him to hits.

 

 

Yeah, that's a straw man and a wild exaggeration. Could you please point out to me where I said that "it's all on the line"? No, you can't, because I didn't say that. 

 

If you want to answer me, reply to what I actually said.

 

As for me explaining , sure, I'll explain it when you explain how you know that "no other teams are interested." Are you Singletary? His agent? His mother? I presume not. So you haven't a clue, anymore than I do. But I didn't pretend I did.

 

What you know is that he hasn't signed a contract. And there are many possible reasons for that, most particularly money disagreements and the teams trying to wait guys out to drop their prices. 

 

Hundreds more players will be signed. Singletary could easily be one of them.

 

They do need another starting level RB. Perhaps even two. Re-signing Singletary for a salary that they could both agree on would absolutely provide one.

[Niagara Dude]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

672 carries in 4 years is really not a lot at all though and he’s never had 900 yards in his career. So  That’s an average of 10 carries a game basically over that span . Josh Jacobs alone last year had 340 lol.

 

My point is: He is only getting 10 carries a game, which is going to keep him more fresh/efficient.

 

He runs a lot against light boxes. And he didn’t get a ton of short yardage carries.

 

You add all that up and it makes sense why is YPC is good.
 

Give him 15-20 carries a game like a typical starting RB, and couple that with going against more 8 man fronts/short yardage carries? inarguably his YPC would drop significantly 

The Bengals game was a perfect example of not having a starting level RB with both size and burst.  Thurman Thomas was not some blazing fast RB,  but he had excellent burst into the line.  Singletary does not have any burst and that average is based on limited touches and teams loading up against the pass. I want to see the Bills get a legit starting RB and stop this nonsense of exposing our star QB Allen to taking so many hits because they are using him to run the ball.  Why are passing teams like KC and the Bengals able to run the football.  

 

 

[Niagara Dude]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, that's a straw man and a wild exaggeration. Could you please point out to me where I said that "it's all on the line"? No, you can't, because I didn't say that. 

 

If you want to answer me, reply to what I actually said.

 

As for me explaining , sure, I'll explain it when you explain how you know that "no other teams are interested." Are you Singletary? His agent? His mother? I presume not. So you haven't a clue, anymore than I do. But I didn't pretend I did.

 

What you know is that he hasn't signed a contract. And there are many possible reasons for that, most particularly money disagreements and the teams trying to wait guys out to drop their prices. 

 

Hundreds more players will be signed. Singletary could easily be one of them.

 

They do need another starting level RB. Perhaps even two. Re-signing Singletary for a salary that they could both agree on would absolutely provide one.

How about you explain our playoff game,  are you going to now say the Bengals missing 3 starters in our playoff game had a better offensive line to run the ball or just better running backs.  Joe Mixon is both big and fast (4.45 forty) and he was able to get bigs runs behind a line of 3 backups.  

 

No, there is no NFL team signing or interested in Singletary as a longterm commitment.  Do you hear about him visiting any teams,  if he was so great and in demand you would hear something.  

 

Sure maybe a team would sign him for depth purposes on some one year prove it contract but he never getting any huge guaranteed longer term deal. Maybe explain why Allen needs to run so much on designed run calls and you don't see designed runs for either Burrows or Mahomes. 

 

Get a starting RB and stop this nonsense with Allen, we don't need a Cam Newton situation.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Always loved Motor. He's worth much much that what teams are valuing him at. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Always loved Motor. He's worth much much that what teams are valuing him at. 

So everyone else in the league is clueless?