Tank the Pats game?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, Casey D said:

No.  Both would be 12-4, but Bills would have tiebreaker.

Do you happen to know what tiebreaker it is? The ESPN playoff machine has cincy as the 2 seed if that’s the case but it could be a quirk with strength of victory because the final game obviously doesn’t have a winning margin associated with it yet 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I believe you are incorrect.  We have the tie breaker over Bengals if we end up losing and they win.  
 

So if Chiefs win, we are 100% locked into the 2 seed and the outcome of the Pats game has no bearing on seeding.  
 

That was the point if the OP.

 

Asked above, but what tiebreaker do the Bills have over the Bengals?

Edited January 5, 2023 by UKBillFan

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Asked elsewhere, but what tiebreaker do the Bills have over the Bengals?

We would be tied on first tie breaker still and it goes to the second tie breaker which I believe is record vs common opponents which we have a 1 game advantage on.  They did the whole scenario earlier, we tie again on first tie breaker and win on second tie breaker.  
 

Bills can’t finish the season lower than the 2 seed if the Bills vs Bengals game is declared a no contest 

 

UPDATE:  Upon further review, it has now become clear what I was watching them report on TV was incorrect, both in what tie breaker would be the deciding factor (record vs common opponents) and the fact that either team had final claim yet to the tie breaker.  Its actually not yet determined, and can't be until this weeks games conclude and they tally final strength of wins numbers to see if Buf or Cincy wins on that tie breaker.  So to control our own destiny to not finish lower than the 2 seed, we need to beat NE.  
 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BillsfaninSB]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We would be tied on first tie breaker still and it goes to the second tie breaker which I believe is record vs common opponents which we have a 1 game advantage on.  They did the whole scenario earlier, we tie again on first tie breaker and win on second tie breaker.  
 

Bills can’t finish the season lower than the 2 seed if the Bills vs Bengals game is declared a no contest 
 

So resting everyone is an option if Chiefs win…correct?

[UKBillFan]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

We would be tied on first tie breaker still and it goes to the second tie breaker which I believe is record vs common opponents which we have a 1 game advantage on.  They did the whole scenario earlier, we tie again on first tie breaker and win on second tie breaker.  
 

Bills can’t finish the season lower than the 2 seed if the Bills vs Bengals game is declared a no contest 
 

 

Draft Kings is saying it will be based on SOV so the Bengals could overtake the Bills on Sunday:

https://dknation.draftkings.com/nfl/2023/1/4/23538979/bills-vs-bengals-playoff-picture-standings-implications-seeding-tie-vacated-home-field-advantage

 

New York Post agrees:

https://nypost.com/2023/01/05/how-potential-bills-bengals-cancellation-could-change-afc-playoffs/

 

AS is saying the Bengals could claim second seed too:

https://en.as.com/nfl/how-does-the-bills-vs-bengals-postponement-affect-nfl-playoff-scenarios-n/

 

In terms of common opponents tiebreaker, I think both sides have the same winning percentage of 70%, should the Bengals win and Bills lose on Sunday?

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We would be tied on first tie breaker still and it goes to the second tie breaker which I believe is record vs common opponents which we have a 1 game advantage on.  They did the whole scenario earlier, we tie again on first tie breaker and win on second tie breaker.  
 

 

yeah it looks like we’re 9-2 against teams that the Bengals have also played, while the Bengals are… 8-3  (doing the math on my iPhone, wish I had a monitor to do a side-by-side comparison).  But if the Bengals beat the Ravens on Sunday and we lose to the Pats, we’d be tied in thay tiebreaker as well.  So it would go to Strength of Victory I think?

[Milanos Milano]

49 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

It's the Patriots, the team destroyed us for 20 years

No freaking tank

Well I dunno where you got that thing, but I’m impounding it. 

[Mr. WEO]

make it stop

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Jeff Goldblum trying to keep up with the mental gymnastics this thread requires…

[Casey D]

24 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Which tiebreaker would it be?

Record would be the same, division record would be the same, conference record would be the same, no head to head to determine and, on strength of schedule, it's currently 0.496 for the Bills and 0.508 for the Bengals, but the Bengals are facing the sixth seed Ravens, who cannot fall any lower, and the Bills are facing the seventh seed Patriots, who cannot make up any places.

I believe it is record against common opponents. We would have one more win and the same # of losses.  But I could be wrong.

[UKBillFan]

16 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

 

yeah it looks like we’re 9-2 against teams that the Bengals have also played, while the Bengals are… 8-3  (doing the math on my iPhone, wish I had a monitor to do a side-by-side comparison).  But if the Bengals beat the Ravens on Sunday and we lose to the Pats, we’d be tied in thay tiebreaker as well.  So it would go to Strength of Victory I think?

 

Yes, I said Strength of Schedule earlier but, apologies, looks like it'll be on Strength of Victory.

At the moment, the Bill's SOV is .479 whilst the Bengal's SOV stands at .483. But the Bengals have not beaten the Ravens this season whilst the Bills have beaten the Pats which, if I understand SOV correctly, means the Bengals beating the Ravens would have a positive impact on their SOV.

 

Shall we keep it simple? Just beat the Pats.

8 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I believe it is record against common opponents. We would have one more win and the same # of losses.  But I could be wrong.

 

If the Bengals beat the Ravens and the Bills lose to the Pats then the two teams will have identical records against common opponents, I think.

Edited January 6, 2023 by UKBillFan

[Captain Hindsight]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

given the news about Hamlin today and what he asked doctors when he came to, I’d say there’s about a 0% chance of this happening, even if KC loses.

Agreed. Bills need a get right game too. They need to feel good and strong going into the playoffs. Mailing in the game isn’t going to happen

[Captain Caveman]

39 minutes ago, Casey D said:

No.  Both would be 12-4, but Bills would have tiebreaker.

 

Not from everything I've read. 

 

Very easy to see here that Bills would be 3 and Cinci would be 2 in that case.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Since the entire premise of this thread is incorrect can we shut it down?

Edited January 6, 2023 by Captain Caveman

[Beast]

This game is bigger than a playoff position. 

You want to tank, go see Tim Murray. Not the Buffalo Bills.

[Playoffs?]

1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

If we lose, and the Bengals win we are the 3 seed and would host the Ravens

If Bengals handle the Ravens, they might actually favor the 3 seed against Ravens again, instead of 2 seed against New England…. Remember NE probably should’ve beaten Cincy a couple weeks ago..

[AlfaBill]

No. This team wants to win. They want a Super Bowl. They can and will rally around this. Best thing to do is go out and smash the Pats*

[Rochesterfan]

16 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I believe it is record against common opponents. We would have one more win and the same # of losses.  But I could be wrong.

 

We currently do, but factoring in the Pat loss for us and the Ravens win for Cincinnati- we become tied.

 

 

[Casey D]

7 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

Not from everything I've read.   Right now 

 

Very easy to see here that Bills would be 3 and Cinci would be 2 in that case.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Since the entire premise of this thread is incorrect can we shut it down?

I am wrong, thank you.  It would come to SOV.  That will change depending on outcome of lots of games. Right now it goes to Cincy, but it could change.

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, Casey D said:

I am wrong, thank you.  It would come to SOV.  That will change depending on outcome of lots of games. Right now it goes to Cincy, but it could change.

 

It could change, but most likely it favors Cincinnati getting stronger by Beating the Ravens for a better SOV.

 

 

[Roundybout]

Hell no. Given the way Josh and Sean handled the presser, I think this team is fired up for Damar and will beat the Pats by 75. 

[Buffalo03]

Nope. Bury those f*cking bastards

[Captain Caveman]

3 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I am wrong, thank you.  It would come to SOV.  That will change depending on outcome of lots of games. Right now it goes to Cincy, but it could change.

 

It's very unlikely to change in the Bills favor since the Bengals are playing a stronger team this coming weekend.

[Casey D]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

It could change, but most likely it favors Cincinnati getting stronger by Beating the Ravens for a better SOV.

 

 

Probably.  It would diminish the Ravens record though. Would not all the teams each team beat factor into the equation?  

Edited January 6, 2023 by Casey D

[Rochesterfan]

Now I will say - if you get a big lead being fired up early - sure pull guys out and get some rest, but you need to win this game and then let the chips fall where they may.

 

 

[Caesar]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I believe you are incorrect.  We have the tie breaker over Bengals if we end up losing and they win.  
 

So if Chiefs win, we are 100% locked into the 2 seed and the outcome of the Pats game has no bearing on seeding.  
 

That was the point if the OP.

That is incorrect

 

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We would be tied on first tie breaker still and it goes to the second tie breaker which I believe is record vs common opponents which we have a 1 game advantage on.  They did the whole scenario earlier, we tie again on first tie breaker and win on second tie breaker.  
 

Bills can’t finish the season lower than the 2 seed if the Bills vs Bengals game is declared a no contest 
 

Why do you keep saying everyone is wrong?  The entire world, including most posters on this site, know the Bengals own the final tiebreaker.  What tiebreaker do you think the Bills own?

[Captain Caveman]

12 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Probably.  It would diminish the Ravens record though. Would not all the teams each team beat factor into the equation?  

It would diminish the Ravens record but they'll still be ahead of the Pats (even if they win.). And yes, all the teams are factored in, but we have a lot of common opponents since the two divisions played each other, so not much wiggle room.

[Caesar]

20 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I am wrong, thank you.  It would come to SOV.  That will change depending on outcome of lots of games. Right now it goes to Cincy, but it could change.

 

19 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

It could change, but most likely it favors Cincinnati getting stronger by Beating the Ravens for a better SOV.

 

 

How could this change?  It is down to the Patriots and Ravens - it is impossible for the Patriots to be the stronger team even if they win and Ravens lose.

[Captain Caveman]

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

How could this change?  It is down to the Patriots and Ravens - it is impossible for the Patriots to be the stronger team even if they win and Ravens lose.

 

It almost certainly won't, but depending on the math it could be possible because it's not just about the Patriots and Ravens, it's about all of the teams that we each played this year.  So in theory (depending on the margin, and I'm not going to do the math) if every non-common opponent we played wins this weekend, and every non-common opponent of the Bengals loses, then our strength of victory could surpass theirs.

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

It almost certainly won't, but depending on the math it could be possible because it's not just about the Patriots and Ravens, it's about all of the teams that we each played this year.  So in theory (depending on the margin, and I'm not going to do the math) if every non-common opponent we played wins this weekend, and every non-common opponent of the Bengals loses, then our strength of victory could surpass theirs.

Plainly the late season collapse of Miami and NYJ did not help.  And other teams that seemed good when we beat them, like LAR, tanked.  Thanks for clearing this up.  For other reasons as well, just beat the Pats.

[Rochesterfan]

7 minutes ago, Caesar said:

 

How could this change?  It is down to the Patriots and Ravens - it is impossible for the Patriots to be the stronger team even if they win and Ravens lose.

 

There is very little change at this point, but a Bengals win over the Ravens helps by giving them another strong win, but the added loss the Ravens get hurts.

 

The Pats win over the Bills (whom we beat earlier) would improve their record and help.  Then it comes down to the slate of games being played.

 

I think that the SOV in the end would still favor Cincinnati, but without inputting every scenario I do not know for sure.

 

 

[Caesar]

8 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

It almost certainly won't, but depending on the math it could be possible because it's not just about the Patriots and Ravens, it's about all of the teams that we each played this year.  So in theory (depending on the margin, and I'm not going to do the math) if every non-common opponent we played wins this weekend, and every non-common opponent of the Bengals loses, then our strength of victory could surpass theirs.

I was under the impression the math was done for all teams and the lead was insurmountable regardless of outcomes this Sunday.... of course getting reliable info from any source the last couple of days has been iffy at best.

[Rochesterfan]

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

I was under the impression the math was done for all teams and the lead was insurmountable regardless of outcomes this Sunday.... of course getting reliable info from any source the last couple of days has been iffy at best.

 

It has been done up-to this point, but will change with the games this weekend.  It maybe correct that the lead is insurmountable - I have not done the math, but it will change.

 

 

[PauleeeWalnuts]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

given the news about Hamlin today and what he asked doctors when he came to, I’d say there’s about a 0% chance of this happening, even if KC loses.

Agreed, I expect them to throttle the Pats Sunday 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Absolutely not. What kind of message would that send? And I don’t want the Bills rusty coming into their first playoff game and if they get the 1 seed that will be 3 weeks off for our core guys. 

[The Wiz]

Yes.  Let's tank the Pats for sure.

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Caesar said:

 

Why do you keep saying everyone is wrong?  The entire world, including most posters on this site, know the Bengals own the final tiebreaker.  What tiebreaker do you think the Bills own?

 

I was going off information I got from ESPN discussing it where they stated we would win the tie breaker regardless and couldn't finish lower than the 2 seed if it was ruled a no contest.  

 

But after reading your comment, I went and looked at more information on it and now I see where they had their information incorrect.  They had us winning a tie breaker on common opponents by 1 game, but that is incorrect.  So apologies, I was going off what was being reported, and not only did they have it wrong that Buffalo would be the 2 seed regardless, but they also had the wrong tie breaker deciding the outcome I see now which would be one further regarding strength of wins.  

 

Bills enter at 92 wins and Bengals enter at 85.  But a win over Balt jumps them to 95 to our 92 if we lose to NE.  So then it would come down to the final results of the remaining games.  

 

So the reality I was incorrect based on the info I saw on ESPN, and so is everyone else saying the Bengals definitely have the tie breaker, because they don't.  The actual correct answer is who will win the tie breaker will not be known until the conclusion of this weeks games (if a tie breaker is needed).  

 

Which now means, yes the Bills do need to win the game regardless if they want to control their own destiny regarding the 2 seed.  So apologies on my incorrect statement, but I was just going off the report that I was watching at the time I posted it.  

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Draft Kings is saying it will be based on SOV so the Bengals could overtake the Bills on Sunday:

https://dknation.draftkings.com/nfl/2023/1/4/23538979/bills-vs-bengals-playoff-picture-standings-implications-seeding-tie-vacated-home-field-advantage

 

New York Post agrees:

https://nypost.com/2023/01/05/how-potential-bills-bengals-cancellation-could-change-afc-playoffs/

 

AS is saying the Bengals could claim second seed too:

https://en.as.com/nfl/how-does-the-bills-vs-bengals-postponement-affect-nfl-playoff-scenarios-n/

 

In terms of common opponents tiebreaker, I think both sides have the same winning percentage of 70%, should the Bengals win and Bills lose on Sunday?

 

Yes, see my post above...I got my info from a report on TV and they were wrong in saying Bills win the tie breaker in the record vs common opponents.  So I had bad information, it is going to be SOV and that won't be determined until all the games finish this week.  So my bad, I had bad info literally off of watching them discuss it on TV who had it wrong.  But seeing comments here, I went and looked it up myself and confirmed you are correct.  

[DCofNC]

If KC wins, absolutely rest the starters.

[RocCityRoller]

I believe if Pats win Dolphins are out?

[Mango]

I say tank the Pats game for the 3 seed. Let’s ride this wave baby!