The 4th & 2 playcalling

[Wayne Cubed]

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

[SydneyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Process said:

Well McKenzie sucks. But we knew that a year ago. And Beane did nothing in the off-season to address it. 

 

He did go out and get Crowder but injury killed that move.

[iccrewman112]

34 minutes ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

not sure why McKenzie can’t run a run route in and short yardage situation and not get a first down. It was down with Beasley for two years. Concept is the same regardless of the receiver.

[CEN-CAL17]

4th & 2…..? Get that PS player Duke in the game!!!!!  Defenses won’t know what to do!!!! (Either will Buffalo)

[Process]

1 minute ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

He did go out and get Crowder but injury killed that move.

Yay, another average at best weapon for the face of our franchise

[Ned Flanders]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

Good gawd, this is very telling.

[Motorin']

38 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Duke had a defender in front of him.

 

Probably a 50/50 chance if he makes the defender miss. Actually more like 70/30, I think he gets it.

 

The defendor was well beyond the sticks. Of course he's keyed in on Duke and would come downhill, but still, that could have been and easy conversion imo. 

[st pete gogolak]

16 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

Why are Davis and McKenzie right next to each other?  That can't be right.  Somebody had to mess up.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That was Duke Johnson and he had a defender on him and closing fast. It would have probably been a bang-bang play at the first down marker, or Duke would have had to make him miss.

 

He may have even been hit so hard that he doesn’t catch the ball.

 

 

 

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.    When it's that short of a conversion you have to be willing to look short to long.    Josh has developed a Rob Johnson-esque addiction of looking long first even when it's unnecessary.

Edited November 14, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Wayne Cubed]

5 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Why are Davis and McKenzie right next to each other?  That can't be right.  Somebody had to mess up.

 

Yea McK is a liability, I'm sure he's run wrong route or something. He's actually probably the reason Josh hesitates.

 

EDIT: It's a bunch formation to start, so Davis/McK/Knox are all lined up closely. I think Josh is looking for Knox first but then he definitely comes back to where Davis/McK are and he hesitates than actually throws the ball in the dirt.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Wayne Cubed

[msw2112]

11 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

Good gawd, this is very telling.

 Hadn't seen this, but wow!  Not only is Davis wide open, but it's a completely clean pocket.  That should be an easy throw for any NFL QB, let alone one of Allen's caliber.  Allen may have been making other reads, but that picket was so clean that he had plenty of time to go to Davis.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

The defendor was well beyond the sticks. Of course he's keyed in on Duke and would come downhill, but still, that could have been and easy conversion imo. 

 

Look at the yard markers. First down is at the 5. Duke is at the 9. Defender is at the 2.

 

The defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. The angle of the camera is throwing you off. It would have been very close.

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

[Wayne Cubed]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

RIght, he shows Josh he's open... Josh still throws the ball in the dirt and Davis does sit in those pockets, so it's not unlike something Davis would do. Even if Davis kept runnign the throw from Allen as no where near him. It was low and in the dirt.

 

EDIT: And the throw is in fact behind Davis, so him still running makes no sense.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Wayne Cubed

[Roundybout]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

What's up with our receivers not having good game sense? Davis does this, McKenzie turns his brain off half the time. 

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.    When it's that short of a conversion you have to be willing to look short to long.    Josh has developed a Rob Johnson-esque addiction of looking long first even when it's unnecessary.

The angle is messing with your eyes. Look at the yard markers. Duke was 4 yards from the 1st down marker. Defender was 3 yards. Defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. It would have been very very close. 

[Neo]

4 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Disagree.   It's the choice between a 2 score or 3 score game and you only need 2 yards to sustain that drive.  It was the right decision - you have a freakishly mobile battering ram of a QB who is considered a top 5 player in the league - it was just a mix of bad playcalling and terrible execution.

Analytics agrees with you.  Analytics takes score and the likely result of both decisions into consideration given time remaining.  “Go for it” adds more than kick even with the high probability of a made FG.  Analytics here said”hi for it” offered more points, even with success probabilities considered, than kick at that stage of the game.  You take a 70% chance at 7 pts over a 99% chance at 3 pts until time remaining says you don’t.  It would have been asinine to go for it with 3 seconds left and down by 2 pts.

 

The problems were play selection and execution.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Neo

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

Expected him to keep running? Huh? He threw it behind him.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Expected him to keep running? Huh? He threw it behind him.

And threw it low. Gabe Davis will sit in those pockets of space. He's done it before.

[Awwufelloff]

Why didn't we take the 3 pts? What is going on with these coaching decisions....?

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.    When it's that short of a conversion you have to be willing to look short to long.    Josh has developed a Rob Johnson-esque addiction of looking long first even when it's unnecessary.

Don’t disagree, but you and I both know that Allen ain’t throwing a swing pass to Duke Freaking Johnson on a 4th down play form the five. Christ, he’s not even in Allen’s range of vision given the way he set up. That’s not a good thing, but it is also true.

[Einstein]

14 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Why are Davis and McKenzie right next to each other?  That can't be right.  Somebody had to mess up.

 

That’s a common levels route.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Look at the yard markers. First down is at the 5. Duke is at the 9. Defender is at the 2.

 

The defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. The angle of the camera is throwing you off. It would have been very close.

 

 

If our defense left a RB that open in the flat on a short conversion play...........are you expecting that defender to drop that RB for no gain in open space?

 

I think not.

 

Instead we are complaining about a defender not being anywhere near close enough to even contest the throw.     

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

And threw it low. Gabe Davis will sit in those pockets of space. He's done it before.

 

Yeah that wasn’t on Gabe at all.

 

Allen just threw a bad ball.

 

 

[ngbills]

Oh my. The 2nd and 3rd down plays were dreadful. This has been a pattern - so many just throw away plays. The 2nd down one had no chance and not sure what they were even trying to do, not sure the players did either. Then on 3rd all Davis has to do is keep his route going and instead he stops right next to the defender. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Why didn't we take the 3 pts? What is going on with these coaching decisions....?

No idea. 
 

2nd-2 and we got zero yards the next three plays. 
 

And the kicker is Josh converted a 3rd-15 and a 3rd-16 and we got nothing on this drive. 
 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Einstein]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If our defense left a RB that open in the flat on a short conversion play...........are you expecting that defender to drop that RB for no gain in open space?

 

I think not.

 

Instead we are complaining about a defender not being anywhere near close enough to even contest the throw.     

 

I said he might have gotten the first, but it’s definitely not a given. The defender is closer to the marker than Duke is. It would have been close. And that’s assuming Duke makes the catch after the defender pops him. Cook dropped a very similar pass last week due to being hit as he was catching it.

[SoCal Deek]

Just kick the darn field goal! Analytics my arse. 

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

Duke was wide open for a quick 2 yards in the flat to the left right away.

 

Josh could have also scrambled to his left, probably for a TD, just  before he ran to his right...

 

But why couldn't we run the ball for the 1st down on 2nd and 2, or 3rd and 2?

 

 

 

We could have run or passed for 2 yards on second, third, or even fourth down.  But for some reason we don't take what is there.  Is Dorsey telling him to go for 6 at all costs, or is it Allen?   It is low percentage losing football.  

 

One of many tactical errors that we keep seeing the past few weeks.  

 

 

[DaggersEOD]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

The series that confirmed to me that Dorsey ain't it. Sorry, but a proper OC would never call something like that with two yards to go. Power sweep with Cook or even Josh gets it. 

Or even that Stampede play we do where we pull a bunch of linemen and Josh runs a sweep.  

 

I don't think it's ever been completely stopped...

[fan_in_tx]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

What about the 3rd and 1 after a turnover and we take a 10 yrd sack?  Big miss there as well.  How about a run?

[Airseven]

Bills do not execute in these types of situations especially in close games. They get bitten by short down and distances consistently. The play calling is questionable, the OL never gains leverage in short yardage, and Allen presses.

 

I hope the team’s “analytics” takes into account the Bills own failures and not strictly league-wide macro averages.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Airseven

[Roundybout]

1 minute ago, DaggersEOD said:

Or even that Stampede play we do where we pull a bunch of linemen and Josh runs a sweep.  

 

I don't think it's ever been completely stopped...

 

It has a couple times, but the other team has to completely sell out, and the Vikings were dealing with injuries to Smith by that point. 

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

RIght, he shows Josh he's open... Josh still throws the ball in the dirt and Davis does sit in those pockets, so it's not unlike something Davis would do. Even if Davis kept runnign the throw from Allen as no where near him. It was low and in the dirt.

 

I don't know who read the play correctly. But there is space in front of Davis to keep running and instead he sits. This caused Allen to double clutch and the play died. There was a similar issue on the game ending interception. Allen has not been on the same page with his WRs too many times this year. It's my main issue with our offensive system going back to Daboll - it relies too much on Allen and the WR seeing the coverage the same way, and if they don't it is far too likely to lead to a goofy looking interception.

 

When you watch Miami's or San Fran's offense there isn't anything like that. Everyone is on the same page from pre- to post-snap. The QB just has to follow his progressions and hit his WR at the right spot on their route. It's almost certainly too late to completely change our offensive system but Dorsey has to work with Allen and the WRs to minimize these critical mistakes. Allen and Davis have been together for too long for these kinds of issues to still be popping up.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It was poor play calling. It should have been a QB sweep on 3rd down to the right. His elbow is to the sideline. Allen gets the first down 90% of the time.

[Turbo44]

4 minutes ago, fan_in_tx said:

What about the 3rd and 1 after a turnover and we take a 10 yrd sack?  Big miss there as well.  How about a run?

Easy to say run, looking back.  Note than on 2nd and 1, a play earlier, singletary was stuffed for no gain, so that may have dissuaded the run option

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

If they fired Dorsey this afternoon, not a single person would complain….take that however you want

[Gugny]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know who read the play correctly. But there is space in front of Davis to keep running and instead he sits. This caused Allen to double clutch and the play died. There was a similar issue on the game ending interception. Allen has not been on the same page with his WRs too many times this year. It's my main issue with our offensive system going back to Daboll - it relies too much on Allen and the WR seeing the coverage the same way, and if they don't it is far too likely to lead to a goofy looking interception.

 

When you watch Miami's or San Fran's offense there isn't anything like that. Everyone is on the same page from pre- to post-snap. The QB just has to follow his progressions and hit his WR at the right spot on their route. It's almost certainly too late to completely change our offensive system but Dorsey has to work with Allen and the WRs to minimize these critical mistakes. Allen and Davis have been together for too long for these kinds of issues to still be popping up.

 

I agree with everything you're saying, but I feel like this problem (Josh and receivers not on same page) was not a problem until the 2nd half of the Green Bay game and it's continued since then.

 

I feel like he was in sync with all receiving options earlier in the season.

 

Even early in yesterday's game, he was spreading the ball around nicely and things looked "normal" again.  Then the wheels came off ... again.

 

There's got to be an explanation but I sure as ***** don't have it.

 

What is equally concerning is that Morse and Allen are STILL having under-center exchanges.  How a veteran Center and QB can't get THAT down, of all things, boggles my ***** brain.

 

[Wayne Cubed]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know who read the play correctly. But there is space in front of Davis to keep running and instead he sits. This caused Allen to double clutch and the play died. There was a similar issue on the game ending interception. Allen has not been on the same page with his WRs too many times this year. It's my main issue with our offensive system going back to Daboll - it relies too much on Allen and the WR seeing the coverage the same way, and if they don't it is far too likely to lead to a goofy looking interception.

 

When you watch Miami's or San Fran's offense there isn't anything like that. Everyone is on the same page from pre- to post-snap. The QB just has to follow his progressions and hit his WR at the right spot on their route. It's almost certainly too late to completely change our offensive system but Dorsey has to work with Allen and the WRs to minimize these critical mistakes. Allen and Davis have been together for too long for these kinds of issues to still be popping up.

 

I know there is space there but Allen throws the ball behind Davis anyways. To be honest they've actually run this play a few times this season and they haven't gotten it right yet. It's a Follow Concepts route. One time Josh nearly got Crowder killed, the other was to Moss and had no gain. I'd say they got that one pretty close to correct and Josh missed it being late but then he missed it being late on another attempt.

 

I say all this but I honestly don't know what the Bills offense is good at at this moment. I can't think of one play they can run, besides something involving Josh improving, where when they need to get it, they get it. It's a lot of option routes by the receivers as well which is good but then where are the excuted plays? We know they can't execute in short yardage.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Wayne Cubed

[starrymessenger]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah that wasn’t on Gabe at all.

 

Allen just threw a bad ball.

 

 

Quite apart from throws that represent bad decisions Josh has in this funk also thrown some bad balls. As others have pointed out, his receivers bailed him out a number of times yesterday with good catches on balls that were poorly thrown. One wonders if Josh is experiencing again the mechanical issues that impacted his accuracy before they were resolved. It happens. Some years ago Aaron Rodgers (when indisputably in his prime) got into a funk and had a stretch of. 3-4 games where his game fell apart. Turns out he too has to manage his mechanics because of unhelpful tendencies he can fall into. He got through them working with his then QB coach N. Hackett and turned things around.