Mock draft has Bills trade next years round 1 + , to move up in first - Too much?

[YoloinOhio]

Yes it’s too much and Beane has been resistant to trade future ones even when he moved up for Allen. He did it for diggs who was an established player with a reasonable multi year deal in place. But cannot see it to move up for a rookie. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

When you have a QB making $40 mil you need more rookie contracts not less. 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Bag of Milk said:

They are doing their due diligence on Kyle Hamilton. Thus, it appears he would be their target on a trade up.

 

Beane has said he interviews some prospects that he believes our divisional rivals may take, to scope them out as potential opponents. I am certain that if we've met with Hamilton it's because we think he could be a NY Jet for the next decade.

[Thurman#1]

Much too much.

 

As a thought experiment, it's interesting.

 

But you don't give up ths much except for a franchise QB. We've already got one. 

 

This would go down as a second Watkins trade.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Correct. It was an idiotic pick to run away from a HOF QB to draft a corner.

 

 

 

Trading away Mahomes sounds idiotic till you realize we got Allen and Tre. A fantastic trade.

 

The making of this team.

 

 

3 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

It makes no sense.

 

First, Bills would need to assume Gardner is a can't miss prospect. 

Second, that Gardner is THE key to a Super Bowl this year. 

Third, there are no other good options at CB (even by the third round)

Fourth, the Bills have exhausted all other options to give up a 2023 first and third for other assests.  

 

On the surface, none of these can be reasonably considered true. 

 

Very nicely put.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Flat-out wrong. 

 

Trading away Mahomes sounds idiotic till you realize we got Allen and Tre. A fantastic trade.

More good luck then good management but I’ll take it 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[Putin]

7 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

Is he a Jalen Ramsey 2.0 ? Thought call !!! 

[KOKBILLS]

I don't see the logic in trading future premium picks that will likely be cheap labor starters, or prime back-ups, when you are clearly going to be up against the cap...

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We traded a ton for Sammy when we had EJ and Kyle Orton at QB. Of course it failed.

 

We traded a similar amount for Diggs with Josh at QB, and it's worked out pretty well.

 

Completely different teams. Cant compare to old trades in a vacuum.

 

 

No, we traded one first round pick for Diggs, along with a 5th and a 6th in that year and a 4th the next, receiving a 7th that year.

 

This is two 1st round picks plus a 3rd and a 5th. 

 

Terrible trade. 

 

For Diggs, we traded away:

 

2020 #22

2020 #155

2020 #201

2021 #134

 

and received the Vikes 2020 #239

 

For this new trade, we'd be trading away:

 

2022 #25

2022 #89

2023 1st

2023 5th

 

Only for a franchise QB. That's the standard rule. Never trade away two firsts except for a franchise QB. Again, we have one.

 

The analytics tell us that this kind of trade works out infrequently. Check "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft" by Massey and Thaler. All the articles say the same thing as well.

 

The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective article "How to Value Draft Picks" backs up Massey and Thaler. They all do, really.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[HurlyBurly51]

Drooling at the thought of Sauce and Tre though...

[st pete gogolak]

Really, really hate the idea of trading next year's #1, not just for the Bills but anyone (thought Saints giving up next year's #1 to Eagles was just flat out stupid when there is a good chance it will be a top ten pick).  Of course it worked out ok for KC giving up a next year #! to get Mahones.  I've seen Gardner mocked anywhere from #4 to #12.  If he is there at #10, I'd consider trading #25 and next year's #1 for Gardner.  I certainly wouldn't hate it.  That would be top offer, however.  Wouldn't give up anything else.  

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

The contract is the key.

The player is the key.   You can move money around.  You cant teach Sauce Gardner to be Jalen Ramsey.    Huge risk to give up multiple picks for a player who doesnt have the ball in his hands ever  

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

So we give up as much to get Sauce Gardner as the Rams did to get Jalen Ramsey?  

 

I'm not in favor of this potential trade up but the Ramsey trade is not a good comparison. If Gardner works out you get an elite CB on a rookie contract with a 5th year option at the end. Ramsey counts $25 million against the cap this year. Gardner will be around $5 to $6 million.

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not in favor of this potential trade up but the Ramsey trade is not a good comparison. If Gardner works out you get an elite CB on a rookie contract with a 5th year option at the end. Ramsey counts $25 million against the cap this year. Gardner will be around $5 to $6 million.

Yes but Ramsey was an All Pro corner vs. a rookie unknown…counting on Gardner to be as good as Ramsey is absurdly optimistic.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I love Talbot's mock draft. Usually I advocate for trading down but Beane plugged so many holes,, there just is not enough roster space to fill.

His mock adds an elite corner and bolsters both OT and OG. At the same time get a punter and jettisons the late round picks for picks next year. Love it!

The only change I would make is Iwould draft MLB or Safety in the second round. As someone else pointed out, at least one if not two of the three - Edmunds, Poyer, and Hyde will be gone after this year. My preference would be draft MLB in the second round. Let Edmunds walk after this year. 

As for WR, they have enough on the roster now, but I would still make a run at Sanders for one more year.

[Aussie Joe]

23 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I love Talbot's mock draft. Usually I advocate for trading down but Beane plugged so many holes,, there just is not enough roster space to fill.

His mock adds an elite corner and bolsters both OT and OG. At the same time get a punter and jettisons the late round picks for picks next year. Love it!

The only change I would make is Iwould draft MLB or Safety in the second round. As someone else pointed out, at least one if not two of the three - Edmunds, Poyer, and Hyde will be gone after this year. My preference would be draft MLB in the second round. Let Edmunds walk after this year. 

As for WR, they have enough on the roster now, but I would still make a run at Sanders for one more year.

 

I think the 2023 first round next year and the third this year might make the roster...

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[whorlnut]

12 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Or he could be a giant bust.

 

All mocks are terrible. All of them. But trading this much to move up for a CB when one might be there (if it’s BPA seeing as drafting for need is dumb) at 25 is a bit much. Even for a mock.

Exactly. This idea that this team has to draft a corner in 1 is not smart. Beane has never drafted for need. In fact, Beane might not see it as as much of a need as fans do. I get the idea he really likes Jackson. I can’t see ya trading all that to get a CB2 at all. 

[hondo in seattle]

16 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

When you have a QB making $40 mil you need more rookie contracts not less. 

 

Exactly.  

While trading up for Josh worked well, the draft is a crapshoot.  You're more likely to hit it big with more picks. 

 

And we need some hits.  We need impact players who are on rookie contracts to counterbalance the big contract players (Allen, Miller, Diggs).  

[Special K]

21 hours ago, Special K said:

if the Bills do that, there would be a high chance that the Bills would trade Diggs for a first next offseason to get that first rounder back

 

Very happy to be wrong about this!!

[DrPJax]

23 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

Would NEVER happen.  First Beane gave up a 1st for Diggs and was miserable on draft day  not having a first round pick and stated he was unlikely to do that again and second, Mcd has never ( including his Carolina days) used valuable picks / assets to fill the 2nd cb roster spot.  He is confident on developing late round picks / ufas for that spot.   This roster will need labor on rookie contracts moving forward as well and the price to get up above cb needy rivals who have multiple picks and can afford to take Gardner in the top 5-10  is too steep. Many have the jets taking him at 4 I believe and we are not going to make a move from 25 to get anywhere close to that high.  
 

We made our huge moves with Von , Diggs, Bates’ etc and this team does need depth to offset injuries we see happen every year to every NFL  team and we need o line , cb , wr , legit rb talent , a legit one technique DT ( settles is still a mild ? mark and needs development still ).  Gardner is good yet there are very good scheme fit cbs for the NUMBER 2 CB who will be there thru th 3 rd round in all likelihood. Beane did his all in move with Miller and that’s how Mcd plays pass d, he values d line pressure to Help his cbs hold up.and if he valued cb 2 that much , he could have replaced Wallace several seasons going and last year they didn’t even devote a single pick to a cb !  Now you expect them to throw multiple high round picks for a position they have demonstrated they will fill with FA’s / udfa’s ?   Pl
 

We don’t draft in a vacuum and other teams value Gardner so he is an early target.  You only give up that much draft value going after a franchise QB , not your cb 2. who doesn’t even cover other teams #1 wr.  Mcd uses scheme to effect his philosophy on pass d and year after year he / Beane have proven they value d line pressure to achieve that   They finally  invested in the piece ( Miller ) to be sure they get the sacks / pressures they value.  This isn’t madden ; the Bills Need depth and rookie contracts moving forward and they will also need guys developing to fill roster spots of guys here on one year deals like Safford should he chose to retire next year etc.    The only position you throw that much draft capital at is a franchise Qb and we were lucky to get to 7 to get Josh; no way possible to get that high from 25 or to get above the Jets at 4 realistically. If something weird happened and Gardner dropped out of the top 10 , maybe they inquire, but that seems very implausible.

 

My strongest argument tho is you don’t go several years ( or in mcds case , his career); fielding low picks / udfa’s at your cb 2 spot , throw millions at the d line year after year , to now suddenly act counter to that by throwing so much at the cb2 and then be vulnerable at other valued positions for several subsequent years. Mcd has shown he can make his d work with cb talent taken with later picks and I can’t see he or Beane varying from that now , esp given all the asset allocation to the d line where they obviously ARE willing to throw multiple picks at and spend huge FA money on. Franchise qbs have that much impact on winning , cb2’s do not and that’s been proven throughout the league. Even if White doesn’t return to form , he’s proof you can get adequate talent at 25 and don’t need to mortgage multiple assets trying to find.  They also obviously value Jackson , and will either add a vet later or add another later pick at cb to compete with him.    Tasker / Brown/ Greg Cosell have all said the same as well ; there will be good cb fits for the Bills even in rounds 2-3 who can compete for cb 2  in mcds scheme. 

[Patrick Duffy]

18 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes it’s too much and Beane has been resistant to trade future ones even when he moved up for Allen. He did it for diggs who was an established player with a reasonable multi year deal in place. But cannot see it to move up for a rookie. 

Yup fully agree. I know you can never tell for sure with Beane, but really hard for me to see that happen. If he does throw a curve ball it would probably be just a few spots and nothing big. Like maybe moving from 25 to 17-20 range I would guess.

 

 

[Mat68]

With the Diggs news Idk if that makes it more likely or less they would trade up.  Imo Cb is a spot on the roster Beane will add to.  I think I can talk myself more into trading up now.  Go get a guy.  Go for it.  F it.  

[GreggTX]

I think that moving up makes no sense. The team now has several huge contracts and must address multiple deficiencies in this draft. They would be much smarter to trade down to add more day 2 picks to address CB and OL. Depth at RB and WR are concerns, but I don't want to have to watch 2 turnstiles at RG and RT and a bubble player starting at CB all year. Josh's completion rate under duress vs in a clean pocket was the biggest difference among starting QB's last year. Usually OL isn't a sexy pick, but protecting Josh better will pay big dividends and we need at least 1 guy on the right side with a decent win rate against pass rushers unless we want our TE's and RB's pass protecting all year instead of catching passes and running. I assume the need at CB is obvious as well. We need at least 2 CB's and 1 that can start.

Edited April 7, 2022 by GreggTX

[BigAl2526]

If I'm Beane, I'm not doing that trade.  Sauce Gardner will likely be a great cornerback, but Tre white is a quality # 1 cornerback, and Buffalo is going to need all the draft capital they can manage.  They have a bunch of players being paid big contracts now, and need to find starters in future drafts to pay on rookie deals to replace guys they won't be able to afford to re-sign.

[starrymessenger]

I’ll take AB Jr and keep the picks.

[Augie]

On 4/5/2022 at 1:06 PM, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

 

I refuse to click now, and I’ll try to make a mental note to NEVER click on that site in the future. That’s crazy $%^#, and I don’t care how badly you need clicks. Be realistic. 

On 4/6/2022 at 3:02 PM, Mat68 said:

With the Diggs news Idk if that makes it more likely or less they would trade up.  Imo Cb is a spot on the roster Beane will add to.  I think I can talk myself more into trading up now.  Go get a guy.  Go for it.  F it.  

 

Zone corners are not THAT hard to find. We don’t need to give up all that. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

I refuse to click now, and I’ll try to make a mental note to NEVER click on that site in the future. That’s crazy $%^#, and I don’t care how badly you need clicks. Be realistic. 

 

LOL both @RyanTalbotBills and @Matt Parrino post here sometimes.  I'm sure they'd like your critique.  I think they do some good work.  This is not "that thing" IMO, you're right, it's pretty tenuous.

 

You know, Beane has been talking and talking and talking about how we really need cheap labor now that we're moving into Josh Allen's second contract, so we need to hit on our draft picks.  That makes it seem very unlikely he would trade away next year's first round pick plus a 4th and 5th rounder this year.

 

On the other hand, this is the same guy who went on and on about how we weren't going to be big spenders in FA this season and we saw how that went.

 

But seriously, it's worth looking at Beane's big trade moves (I'm gonna count 2017, because I think McDermott had some input):

2017, to draft their "franchise CB", the Bills traded DOWN 17 spots from 10 to 27, gained a 2017 3rd round pick, and a 2018 1st round pick.

They traded the 3rd round pick to Atlanta to move up in the 2nd and draft Dawkins as a franchise LT.

2018, to draft their hoped-for "franchise QB", the Bills traded our former LT during the off-season to move up from 21 to 12.  He then traded 2 2nd round picks and #12 to get to #7.

In the same draft, to draft their hoped-for "franchise MLB", the Bills used the extra 1st round pick and traded UP 6 spots from 22 to 16, giving up a 2018 2nd round pick

 

Fundamentally, in all these moves, there was a theme: Beane fought like hell to keep from giving up a future 1st round pick.  He swapped players for picks in the off season, he swapped picks within the same draft.  He's not afraid to move around.

 

But if Beane wasn't willing to forgo a 1st round pick in a future draft to obtain "his guy" at CB, QB, or MLB, and at a point where all these guys were getting rookie pay, I don't see it happening for a CB in this draft when the Bills have Big Bills to pay.

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

Zone corners are not THAT hard to find. We don’t need to give up all that. 

 

I think you do it if you think there's a guy who will really put you over the top defensively - that zone CB who can play press man or who has the speed to stay with some of the burners.  Is "Sauce" Gardiner that unique player who will do all that?

Dunno

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ahmad-gardner/32004741-5215-2629-6c74-87ce99a3689f

Strengths

Tall corner with long limbs and sticky hands.

Desired blend of confidence and competitiveness.

Allowed just 6.6 yards per reception in 2021, according to PFF.

Presses like a boxing match with jabs and flurries.

Punches and posts through release phase.

Digs the grave and buries an outside release.

Accelerates from opening to stay connected to the route.

Improved eye balance in 2021.

Recognizes play development and alters assignment accordingly.

Creates very cluttered workspace on contested catches.

Attacks passing lanes from off coverage with burst and stride.

Has two career pick-sixes.

Handled business when matched up against Alabama WR Jameson Williams in national semifinal.

Weaknesses

Skinny legs with below-average build.

Unnecessary disregard for technique.

Plethora of holding and interference calls over three years.

Grabs and holds when pattern matching goes awry.

Some hip tug when trying to flip and run.

Footwork needs to become a priority.

Average gather-and-go quickness from his pedal.

Inconsistent coming to balance in pursuit.

Catch-and-drag tackler.

 

Some of that sounds unappealing to me.  Plus, the Bills have NOT been subtle about showing interest in their picks in prior drafts - have they shown interest here?

 

10 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

If I'm Beane, I'm not doing that trade.  Sauce Gardner will likely be a great cornerback, but Tre white is a quality # 1 cornerback, and Buffalo is going to need all the draft capital they can manage.  They have a bunch of players being paid big contracts now, and need to find starters in future drafts to pay on rookie deals to replace guys they won't be able to afford to re-sign.

 

That's more or less my take.  If there's one position where I have fairly high confidence in this team to recognize and develop talent, it would be in the secondary.

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

On 4/5/2022 at 1:06 PM, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

Draft picks are not a lock.  To lock up the missing piece where we can have a complete defense is worth it to me.  We don’t really have any other starting openings on the roster.  
 

instead of giving up the third, I’d rather give up a player we could lose like Edmunds.  Hell cost too much at this point given we are most likely not extending him.

[DCofNC]

On 4/5/2022 at 7:48 PM, thenorthremembers said:

The player is the key.   You can move money around.  You cant teach Sauce Gardner to be Jalen Ramsey.    Huge risk to give up multiple picks for a player who doesnt have the ball in his hands ever  

Agree to disagree.  A difference make doesn’t have to touch the ball.  That’s why DEs and CBs get paid so much.  WRs are the over pay dujour, give it time, it will be figured out a guy that touches the ball less than 10 times a game isn’t worth it either, the elites at any position are worth better money, and CBs will be getting big money to shut down these good/not great 20M WRs.