Week 16: Bills at Pats - DISCUSSION

[Wyobills89]

I like to think the lights went on for us now. Have played a lot better since 2nd half against Tampa. Dabs needs to keep balance. Hopefully the light bulbs go off and we start looking like 2nd half team last year. Win out Bills! I truly think we get a solid W kinda like last week. Close game tell the 4th quarter. Go Bills!

[RichRiderBills]

5 minutes ago, Wyobills89 said:

I like to think the lights went on for us now. Have played a lot better since 2nd half against Tampa. Dabs needs to keep balance. Hopefully the light bulbs go off and we start looking like 2nd half team last year. Win out Bills! I truly think we get a solid W kinda like last week. Close game tell the 4th quarter. Go Bills!

 

I'm happy with how they turned it around, but I did not get the vibe we had turned a corner after Q1 this week. 

[balln]

3 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

I'm happy with how they turned it around, but I did not get the vibe we had turned a corner after Q1 this week. 

yup. that OL and off gameplan was down right horrific. maybe the worst all year. whatever. move on. allen has to ascend to take us to promise land. qb league. were over thinkin it

[strive_for_five_guy]

48 minutes ago, Success said:

I have to appreciate not going into a game against the Patriots thinking we will need luck or certain breaks to go our way to have a chance.

 

It's kind of the opposite.  I feel like the Pats need those things to beat the Bills.  If it's just talent against talent & everything else is equal, the Bills win.

 

And we have the better QB - finally.

 

 

Agree, Pats have won their Super Bowl for the year.  The Bills have much bigger things to prove, going to come out Sunday and show they’re the superior team.  Prior game was a fluke win for them.

[AlfaBill]

About the oline. Have any of you given thought to the fact that it was a very make shift line, in Browns. Are he didn’t know he was playing LT until 2 days before. They held in for dear life literally holding instead of letting JA to get hit. I think it was a calculated risk taken by the coaching staff. 

[balln]

3 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

About the oline. Have any of you given thought to the fact that it was a very make shift line, in Browns. Are he didn’t know he was playing LT until 2 days before. They held in for dear life literally holding instead of letting JA to get hit. I think it was a calculated risk taken by the coaching staff. 

oh for sure. im just raging on what the hell was beanes plan for back up / swing T - ty nseke was valuable. spencer brown cant play nfl LT. and hes your RT now

 

and while im at it. what the hell was his plan for TE2 and 3. cuzzzz sweeeny and gilliam cant play

[BaaadThingsMan]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

What were you drinking yesterday?

I'm asking because of his play not because I didn't see the two sacks he had in a row.

 

Where has that been? Healthy scratched every week is where. 

[AlfaBill]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

oh for sure. im just raging on what the hell was beanes plan for back up / swing T - ty nseke was valuable. spencer brown cant play nfl LT. and hes your RT now

 

and while im at it. what the hell was his plan for TE2 and 3. cuzzzz sweeeny and gilliam cant play

Lol. 

[Patrick Duffy]

50 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

I'm asking because of his play not because I didn't see the two sacks he had in a row.

 

Where has that been? Healthy scratched every week is where. 

 

Yeah I mean if Obada having more playing time is what gave the spark for the Dline playing well yesterday, then try it again. I thought they were great and getting pressure, flying all around. Need more of that going forward for sure. 

[Doc Brown]

57 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

I'm asking because of his play not because I didn't see the two sacks he had in a row.

 

Where has that been? Healthy scratched every week is where. 

He's played in eight games and has 3 and 1/2 sacks.  Two of which came yesterday.  He's played four out of the last five games so the coaching staff must see something they like.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, balln said:

oh for sure. im just raging on what the hell was beanes plan for back up / swing T - ty nseke was valuable. spencer brown cant play nfl LT. and hes your RT now

 

and while im at it. what the hell was his plan for TE2 and 3. cuzzzz sweeeny and gilliam cant play

I’ll give you swing tackle but what do you expect out of TE2 for a team with as many WR weapons we have. 

[Patrick Duffy]

31 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I’ll give you swing tackle but what do you expect out of TE2 for a team with as many WR weapons we have. 

First of all I expect him to make a catch when ball hits his hands, 2nd, I would expect him not to miss blocks like he has. I'm not saying I don't expect mistakes from him, but lets be real here, I'm not exaggerating when I say he has flushed the few opportunities that he has gotten this season down the toilet. It's sad and I hate it for him, but that's the truth

[Reks Ryan]

13 hours ago, CNYfan said:

When I first read this I read "Is there a chance this game gets fixed?".

And the answer to that is "most definitely"!

You’re funny.  I read that post and had the exact same thought

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, hemma said:

Bass plays for just outside the left upright on his FG attempt, we win that game.

Just needed 1 more short one at the end.

That did seem like a well struck kick too…I was surprised it missed

[YoloinOhio]

9 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

Where has Efe Obada been? Healthy scratch most weeks?

 

Does McD play favorites and is that why Obada has been a healthy scratch?

 

Can he make a difference the rest of the way? They get pressure but very few sacks it seems. 

No, not a healthy scratch most weeks. He’s played in 8 of 14 games and was injured for at least 3 of the 6 that he was inactive.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

9 hours ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

Where has Efe Obada been? Healthy scratch most weeks?

 

Does McD play favorites and is that why Obada has been a healthy scratch?

 

Can he make a difference the rest of the way? They get pressure but very few sacks it seems. 

This team just doesn’t get home. They can be disruptive with their pressures, but rarely finish. I think the leading sack artists this year for our DL are Addison (4), Groot (3), Star (2), Basham (1.5). 
 

The Bills are 26th in sacks per game with 1.9. 
 

[njbuff]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

This team just doesn’t get home. They can be disruptive with their pressures, but rarely finish. I think the leading sack artists this year for our DL are Addison (4), Groot (3), Star (2), Basham (1.5). 
 

The Bills are 26th in sacks per game with 1.9. 
 

For whatever reason they have a difficult time tackling a QB. 😁

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

This team just doesn’t get home. They can be disruptive with their pressures, but rarely finish. I think the leading sack artists this year for our DL are Addison (4), Groot (3), Star (2), Basham (1.5). 
 

The Bills are 26th in sacks per game with 1.9. 
 

To be fair, their pass defense isn’t predicated on that (sack numbers). It’s predicated on pre-snap disguise, pressure and coverage to force incompletions or bad throws. 

Just now, njbuff said:

For whatever reason they have a difficult time tackling a QB. 😁

Yes Obada should have had 3 sacks but he couldn’t wrap up cam on the one 

[njbuff]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

To be fair, their pass defense isn’t predicated on that (sack numbers). It’s predicated on pre-snap disguise, pressure and coverage to force incompletions or bad throws. 

Sacks can be overrated.

 

Remember how the Dolphins were hurt by protecting Dan Marino’s sack record (most pass attempts in a row without getting sacked)?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To be fair, their pass defense isn’t predicated on that (sack numbers). It’s predicated on pre-snap disguise, pressure and coverage to force incompletions or bad throws. 

To piggy back on this, I think McDermott finds this to be just as effective as sacks. Especially when you play teams who get the ball out in 2 seconds, getting pressure and having length can get the job done. 
 

For example, the 4th down play vs the Panthers where Hughes tips the pass and hits Newtons arm.
 

This play doesn’t go down as a sack, but the result effectively was the same.  

Edited December 21, 2021 by EmotionallyUnstable

[CNYfan]

45 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

To piggy back on this, I think McDermott finds this to be just as effective as sacks. Especially when you play teams who get the ball out in 2 seconds, getting pressure and having length can get the job done. 
 

For example, the 4th down play vs the Panthers where Hughes tips the pass and hits Newtons arm.
 

This play doesn’t go down as a sack, but the result effectively was the same.  

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

[muppy]

I have an acquaintance with season tickets who wrote this and I thought it was a very valuable and worthy to share here #wilcoam VERY Thoughtful post. m

 

Quote

The Bills 8-6 season has come down more to how we execute in the red zone, in the 4Q, morsoe this season than any recent one I can recall, as 4 of our 6 losses would have been wins, if the team just completes one more red zone TD pass, or can run just one more in

The good news is we converted 4 times last week against a pretty darn good secondary, in fact one of the very best in the NFL this season, and that's coming off one incredible offensive show in the 2nd half of the game b4 that against one of the best D units in the league

So maybe we turned a corner?

Clearly we have the offensive talent and are quite capable of both competing with and beating the Pats with the same patchwork OL as we had last week, if as a unit we can overcome the holding and silly 5 yard penalties, if Josh can throw away balls and avoid sacks, if he can make great decisions, if we can run the ball like the way we did in the last 6Q's, but specifically it has to all click in the red zone, we'll need to convert TD's in order to beat the Pats

And our D has to avoid giving up big run plays and taking penalties, two things that seems to have become an occasional issue morseo in the 2nd half of the season than say in the first half, but if it does rear it's ugly head, well our O has to bail them out by scoring points, honestly our D has been elite in all but one game and two halfs this year, it's hands down the best overall unit we've seen since 2014, even without Tre, they're playing at a high high level, they have the goods to limit the Pats, it's our O that is more inconsistent going into the must have win game of the 2021 season

jc

 

[Patrick Duffy]

27 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To be fair, their pass defense isn’t predicated on that (sack numbers). It’s predicated on pre-snap disguise, pressure and coverage to force incompletions or bad throws.

Well I mean also to be fair, they are still trying to get to the QB to get a sack as much as they can. They are trying to get to the QB with everything they got and sack him or get the ball out every snap. They just don't get there nearly enough resulting in very low sack numbers.

 

I think you would agree with me here....I mean I agree with what you said, I just don't think that's why they aren't getting sacks.

[Stank_Nasty]

Oh god are we sugar coating the fact we can’t ever take down the qb when we get there again? Pressures right?…. Ya ok. 
 

How about we just find the freaking ability to FINISH once you’ve got hands on the qb. Good lord people. Pressures are a good thing but let’s not use them just to pretend they don’t have an issue with getting qb’s to the ground. There’s plenty of times where the “pressure” wasn’t enough and if whomever got hands on the QB woulda finished, it woulda made a difference. 

[Hebert19]

We need to start fast and overwhelm them early like the colts did. Unfortunately we rarely start fast which has been our issue this year. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Sacks can be overrated.

 

Remember how the Dolphins were hurt by protecting Dan Marino’s sack record (most pass attempts in a row without getting sacked)?

I remember reading an article about Schwartz when he was here about the debate of the value of looking at pass rush success as sacks vs pressures

 

I tend to be in the camp that sacks are great but the truest measure is pressures. Sacks can be flukey. Pressures mean that a QB is consistently making a choice quicker than they like. Sure, they sometimes make a big play but those pressures add up and lead to dump offs at best, a QB often not throwing their best ball, and sometimes them putting it up in the air for an INT.

 

 

 

 

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or maybe sign an actual decent pass rusher who can sack the QB…. Last off-season was a good opportunity to do so, they opted for bringing everyone back and some draft picks. Though the pass rush is improved. 

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

[Coffeesforclosers]

13 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

 

Yes. Agreed completely. Bring in a real OL coach, get him the talent he needs, and get Josh the support he deserves.  

 

Josh will run through walls if he's asked, but I want to watch him QB for another 10 years.  If he ends up a broken down shell like Cam, that's unforgivable.

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

Happens with old guys sometimes. Hopefully he’s been saving what he has left in the tank for the final stretch/playoffs.

[Stank_Nasty]

38 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or maybe sign an actual decent pass rusher who can sack the QB…. Last off-season was a good opportunity to do so, they opted for bringing everyone back and some draft picks. Though the pass rush is improved. 

i could go for a 50 page thread about how hughes only has 1.5 sacks but its not important because he's had 3.2 million pressures this year. 

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

Hughes has been quiet this year, so far, but was a monster in the playoffs last season.   

I am hoping he starts to turn it up a bit as we hit this big, big stretch of games.

i'll give him the playoffs. in 19 he had 3 sacks during the meltdown game that never get talked about because of the outcome

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What’s the topic?

 

oh yeah 

 

***** the Cheating Patriots and their dimple chinned Brady wannabe 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

I said this in the pats/colts thread and i'll say it again. I think Mac Jones resting douche face is way worse than Eli Mannnings ever was. He's tough for me to stomach.

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i could go for a 50 page thread about how hughes only has 1.5 sacks but its not important because he's had 3.2 million pressures this year. 

i'll give him the playoffs. in 19 he had 3 sacks during the meltdown game that never get talked about because of the outcome

Yeah and also you'll hear some say "the defense isn't about sacks, it's about pressure making QB force throws too quick and make mistakes". It's kinda comes off as if when rushing a QB they aren't trying to get sacks, only get pressure. That's why sack numbers are low. It's planned like that.

 

Both are good but sack #s could come up a little.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, stevewin said:

Have mods considered a separate thread for Cheater fans to post to like was done for last game?  I'm all for a Cheater-fan-free Bills pre-game thread 

 

Separate thread for news at least, so we can find it

[RichRiderBills]

Cheats supposedly miffed at McD's post game comments. Uh oh... now Pats are "mad".

 

Seriously, what an entitled and arrogant fan base and media. 

 

It's at the point now where Pats claims of disrespect and bulletin board material should actually be bulletin board material for us. 

 

Except for the other fact....that bulletin board material is a bull#### concept. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 hours ago, Success said:

 

You should really put together a summary of when wins really count & when they don't, and when fans should feel good about them & when they're meaningless.

 

It's all quite hard to keep up with.  I know that personally, I felt good about beating the Chiefs, who are the #1 seed in the AFC right now.  But apparently, that was a gimme.

 

 

Apparently, Miami counts as a close loss to a good team when the Pats play them, but they're a bad team and smoking them 2x doesn't count when the Bills play

 

Also it matters that the Chiefs were "bad" when we played them, but doesn't matter that the Titans were without Henry, Brown and Jones when the Pats beat them, etc.

 

So for a bit of an objective measure, here's the current seeding

 

 

Interesting point is that the Strength of Schedule for the Bills and Pats wins are almost identical (0.48 vs 0.479) and the Strength of Victory is higher for the Bills (0.432 vs 0.413). 

Now I don't know how these things are calculated or what they do or don't take into account, but it's probably a bit more objective than "we lost close games to Miami but it doesn't matter you blew them out".

 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

No matter how this season plays out Beane better focus on improving the OL. I would love to see Josh as the Bills QB with better pass protection and a solid running game. I think the offense would be unstoppable with a better OL. Our QB is that good IMHO.

 

To be fair, the regression of Dawkins and Williams were unexpected. We did draft guys here. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

7 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

To be fair, the regression of Dawkins and Williams were unexpected. We did draft guys here. 

 

That is true, but at IOL where we were weak and couldn't run last year, Beane was evidently counting on Ford and on Feliciano to both take steps forward, and his "plan B if they don't" was weak (oft-injured Lamp and not-good-enough-for-the-Titans Douglas).  It was a Plan where You Lose Your Hat - a Bad Plan

[strive_for_five_guy]

40 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Apparently, Miami counts as a close loss to a good team when the Pats play them, but they're a bad team and smoking them 2x doesn't count when the Bills play

 

Also it matters that the Chiefs were "bad" when we played them, but doesn't matter that the Titans were without Henry, Brown and Jones when the Pats beat them, etc.

 

So for a bit of an objective measure, here's the current seeding

 

 

Interesting point is that the Strength of Schedule for the Bills and Pats wins are almost identical (0.48 vs 0.479) and the Strength of Victory is higher for the Bills (0.432 vs 0.413). 

Now I don't know how these things are calculated or what they do or don't take into account, but it's probably a bit more objective than "we lost close games to Miami but it doesn't matter you blew them out".

 

SOS and SOV are definitely objective, as they’re calculated based on winning %’s of all your opponents and the opponents you have beaten.  So to your point, more way more objective than the statement noted.

[Beerball]

58 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Cheats supposedly miffed at McD's post game comments. Uh oh... now Pats are "mad".

 

Seriously, what an entitled and arrogant fan base and media. 

 

It's at the point now where Pats claims of disrespect and bulletin board material should actually be bulletin board material for us. 

 

Except for the other fact....that bulletin board material is a bull#### concept. 

What isn't a bullchit concept is that Belichick lives in McDermott's head.