Call your shot: Who will the Bills pick in the 1st round?

[Doc]

Newsome’s injury history scares me. 

[DrDawkinstein]

My "unexpected" pick that Beane surprises us with: Greg Rousseau

 

Hasn't been talked a lot around here. Probably would be the top DE pick if he hadnt sat out and had another season like 2019.

[Rocket94]

12 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Phillips, Barmore, or Tryon... IMO those are the 3 DL with most upside.  I think we’ll be able to find an upgrade at CB2 in round 2.  

Tryon is an interesting player. A lot of room for growth...could very well happen.

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Tryon is an interesting player. A lot of room for growth...could very well happen.

Phillips and Tryon were both born to be edge rushers.  Both have crazy natural ability.  I think Rousseau will be good eventually but would be kind of similar to the Epenesa pick.  I wouldn’t hate it. 

[Rocket94]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Phillips and Tryon were both born to be edge rushers.  Both have crazy natural ability.  I think Rousseau will be good eventually but would be kind of similar to the Epenesa pick.  I wouldn’t hate it. 

I would take either one, though I worry about Phillips and his injury history. Both have yet to hit ceiling...we see this in players quite often. Can’t always base players on the talking heads.

[78thealltimegreat]

On 4/26/2021 at 2:41 PM, Logic said:

So....You've gone through Brandon Beane's presser with a fine-tooth comb. You've debated and argued the comparative merits of pass rushers, corners, and running backs with everyone on The Stadium Wall. You've scoured Youtube highlight videos and analyst's big boards. You've done 50+ mock drafts on the Draft Network's simulator. Your thinking cap is worn out and you're ready for draft night to just GET HERE already!

I want to know, fellow Bills lunatics: Who do YOU think the Bills will select with their first round pick? Not who you WANT them to take, but who you think they WILL take. Not a list of five different players, not an "if, then" scenario, just a simple answer: Which player will the Bills take in round one? Let's see who among us is Carnac the Magnificent.

I'll start.

I believe that with the 30th pick in the draft, the Bills will select Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington.

I know, I know: You've probably seen him listed as more of an early to mid second round pick. I don't buy it. He has prototypical size and athleticism. He had college productivity (8 sacks and 12.5 TFLs in 2019). He has burst. He has a high motor and solid football character. He posted an elite RAS. We know Beane and his staff like toolsy prospects.

Value wise? Dane Brugler has him ranked 32nd and Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked 35th on their respective big boards. Benjamin Allbright stated recently that not enough draftniks are talking abut Tryon, and that he will get drafted higher than people think.
 
When Brandon Beane talked about drafting for the future and getting someone who may not start this year, but can learn from players that might be on the last year of their deals and then can take over next year, I immediately thought of Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. BOTH will be free agents after 2021, and the Bills simply cannot keep kicking the Edge rusher can down the road. They have Epenesa, sure, but they need another guy there with some juice and star potential. Tryon will learn under two great veteran rushers this season and, if all goes well, he and Epenesa will take over as the top two guys in 2022.

Whereas I believe the Bills can find a starting caliber corner in round two (and IOL/IDL/WR help later on), I do not believe they can find an edge with much promise much beyond round one. 

 

So that's my take, TBD. How about you? Who do YOU think the Bills will draft on Thursday night?
 

Trade back to second pick up extra third and they take Rondell Moore 

[Rocket94]

Tryon...very interesting dark horse prospect that will continue to grow...especially with MCD!

[Milanos Milano]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

My "unexpected" pick that Beane surprises us with: Greg Rousseau

 

Hasn't been talked a lot around here. Probably would be the top DE pick if he hadnt sat out and had another season like 2019.

 

I like Rousseau a lot more than Oweh. I’d be ok with Rousseau. 

[mjt328]

When factoring everything into play, I strongly believe our biggest needs are Edge Rusher and Cornerback.

Pretty sure that Brandon Beane sees the same thing, and knows we need upgrades at both positions to take our next step towards a Super Bowl.

 

Running back is definitely a position that could be upgraded.  But I have a tough time believing he would pull the trigger in the 1st Round, after suggesting the backs weren't the sole reason for our struggles last year.  Maybe I'm just missing the signs, but RB just doesn't make sense to me at #30.

 

I also think a trade-down will be tough to do.  You need a partner, and I just can't see teams itching to move up into the Bills slot.

Looking at this draft class, the second round should be pretty strong at Cornerback.  There probably won't be much difference between who is available at #30 and who could be available at #61.  The same cannot be said for Edge, where I think a big drop-off will happen around picks 40-45.  Simply put, if we don't pick a Defensive End in the first round, then we probably come up empty.

 

Kwity Paye will be gone by #30.  Beane doesn't seem to like medical red flags, which probably rules out Jaelen Phillips.  Azeez Ojulari seems like a better fit for 3-4 schemes.  Gregory Rousseau is just a weird prospect (tall and skinny, but got all production rushing inside).  

 

 

My gut-guess is Jayson Oweh, DE from Penn State.  

 

 

[Prospector]

1. Newsome

2. if Newsome gone, Toney

3. If both gone, Collins

4. if all 3 gone, Humphrey

 

5. or a RB if everyone else is trash

[JaCrispy]

At 30, my preferences are....

 

1. JOK

2. Kwity Paye

3. Joe Tryon

4. ETN

5. Kadarius Toney

[purple haze]

Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU.  Can play big nickel/3rd safety role and takeover one of the safety spots when contracts run out.  
 

Not what I’m hoping happens, but thinking outside the box.  I like the player though so I’d be cool with it.

Edited April 28, 2021 by purple haze

[BaaadThingsMan]

I think they'll take Etienne. I'd be happy with a DE LB CB or OL in that order if not. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/26/2021 at 1:59 PM, John from Riverside said:

Quitty Paye or Caleb Farley

 

If we had the chance to draft Paye at 30 I'd be thrilled (but if you want to be seen as knowing something about a guy, spell his name correctly it's Kwitty, K?)

 

Using a 1st round pick on a CB forecast to need more surgery would be Bad

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

At 30, my preferences are....

 

1. JOK

2. Kwity Paye

3. Joe Tryon

4. ETN

5. Kadarius Toney

 

If either of the first two is there I'd be thrilled

[SCBills]

Realistically speaking, given I think the 1st Round Graded DE/CB’s will be off the board when we draft... Etienne or a WR are my preference if we stay at 30.  
 

Get Allen a weapon in the 1st and then dedicate the rest of the Draft to the Defense if they want.  

[0017]

Rondale Moore!! And I think they trade up for him. Just my guess 😬 also that’s who I hope they get, guy is going to be a beast in the NFL calling it right now. 

[MrSarcasm]

Trade back into the 2nd with the Cowboys.

[JaCrispy]

6 hours ago, Doc said:

Newsome’s injury history scares me. 

I will add Phillips and Farley to this, for me...

[Doc]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I will add Phillips and Farley to this, for me...

 

Definitely, but their injury histories have been pretty well discussed.  I feel Newsome's haven't.

[Mr. WEO]

Easy. Etienne is the day 1 impact pick

[Fan in Chicago]

Another 27 hours to go

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

My "unexpected" pick that Beane surprises us with: Greg Rousseau

 

Hasn't been talked a lot around here. Probably would be the top DE pick if he hadnt sat out and had another season like 2019.

I'd love that, but I doubt he'll be there at 30.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'd love that, but I doubt he'll be there at 30.

 

 

I hope Beane doesn't get caught up in the moment and play hole-patcher.    The draft is an ongoing process of team building.........if you have a QB it shouldn't matter THAT much what your immediate needs are.........the focus should be longer term.     Rousseau is not without risk,  but he's a physical specimen,   has had big time production and isn't full of injury red flags.    Same with Liam Eichenberg and Terrace Marshall.    I don't think any of these guys are even compromises over the shiny but unproductive or high injury risk types that are going to be flying off the board earlier than normal in a mediocre draft class.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I hope Beane doesn't get caught up in the moment and play hole-patcher.    The draft is an ongoing process of team building.........if you have a QB it shouldn't matter THAT much what your immediate needs are.........the focus should be longer term.     Rousseau is not without risk,  but he's a physical specimen,   has had big time production and isn't full of injury red flags.    Same with Liam Eichenberg and Terrace Marshall.    I don't think any of these guys are even compromises over the shiny but unproductive or high injury risk types that are going to be flying off the board earlier than normal in a mediocre draft class.

At the end of the day, my sense is that McDermott wants no part of people who opted out. Maybe I'm reading too much into his "cultural mindset" (broadly conceived, if you know what I mean), but that's my sense. I could well be wrong. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Don Otreply]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

At the end of the day, my sense is that McDermott wants no part of people who opted out. Maybe I'm reading too much into his "cultural mindset" (broadly conceived, if you know what I mean), but that's my sense. I could well be wrong. 

I think you’re wrong, the family bond plays a big part in SMs life, and he has a strong conviction in supporting that bond, most guys opted out to protect that very thing, just like Star did. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I think you’re wrong, the family bond plays a big part in SMs life, and he has a strong conviction in supporting that bond, most guys opted out to protect that very thing, just like Star did. 

I could be wrong. I also suspect that they weren't particularly thrilled with Star last season. But I'm guessing here. I just don't think they want guys who think there's a bigger world out there than football and the team culture that goes with it.

[YoloinOhio]

On 4/27/2021 at 9:00 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

As I said elsewhere, a third round pick on Werner solves all problems on defense.  There’s your instinctive Mike, and Edmunds becomes a 10-15 sack guy.

Werner at MLB??? What did I just walk into...

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if McD is the one who’s pushing for Etienne/Harris if available. 

 

Well that would make BADOL happy.  It's offense...

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I could be wrong. I also suspect that they weren't particularly thrilled with Star last season. But I'm guessing here. I just don't think they want guys who think there's a bigger world out there than football and the team culture that goes with it.

I agree with you. McDermott is an old school football guy. There are kids who opted out for “Covid” reasons and kids who opted out because they had a convenient excuse to do so. There are far more of the latter and I do not think that meshes with how McDermott is wired. One Gm this week, can’t recall who, mentioned that it would be very hard for someone to just not play football by choice. This is the type of player that McDermott typically does not want. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I agree with you. McDermott is an old school football guy. There are kids who opted out for “Covid” reasons and kids who opted out because they had a convenient excuse to do so. There are far more of the latter and I do not think that meshes with how McDermott is wired. One Gm this week, can’t recall who, mentioned that it would be very hard for someone to just not play football by choice. This is the type of player that McDermott typically does not want. 

Totally agree, Yolo.

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I agree with you. McDermott is an old school football guy. There are kids who opted out for “Covid” reasons and kids who opted out because they had a convenient excuse to do so. There are far more of the latter and I do not think that meshes with how McDermott is wired. One Gm this week, can’t recall who, mentioned that it would be very hard for someone to just not play football by choice. This is the type of player that McDermott typically does not want. 

 

Those will be dropped lower on most teams' boards.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Those will be dropped lower on most teams' boards.

That has been the buzz.

[Rochesterfan]

I guess based on the last few Mocks - I think CB is the pick.

 

Hoping for Newsome with his elite speed.  
 

That brings us full circle back to Tre’ White and the first pick.  I think they will keep the rotation going.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Another 27 hours to go

[Locomark]

My guess is Rousseau or Harris if we stay put. I prefer Newsome or Phillips but I think both will be gone. 
 

 I truly believe we are not going after Etienne because we would never Telegraph it that early. We may be moving up but not for him, likely for Newsome , Phillips , Vera Tucker or maybe even Farley.   Vera Tucker could even be our 2022 center if he gets to 20. 

 

I always mock BPA in our need spots which usually it is Newsome, Samuel, Rousseau, Phillips, Oweh, Harris, and on random draws we get lucky with a Vera Tucker or a Jenkins falling.

 

It will be fun waiting to see 1) what the Pats do 2)who the Niners pick and 3) if we trade up or trade back...  

 

 

[Putin]

On 4/26/2021 at 2:19 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

All I know is that the 1st pick will a CB. I feel like the Bills trade out of the 1st and draft Asante Samuel Jr. Taron Johnson's replacement in 2022.

I know this is the popular take BUT I think Bean will trade up and get another weapon on offense for Josh ( not Travis ETN ) but a WR !!

[mjdotson]

I want Najee Harris or Jamin Davis at 30.  Davis would add the athletic LB who doubles as a pass rusher and can drop into coverage incredibly well, which is what we need to add to the D in order to beat Mahomes. 

[Tipster19]

Christian Barmore.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, Putin said:

I know this is the popular take BUT I think Bean will trade up and get another weapon on offense for Josh ( not Travis ETN ) but a WR !!

I think he can get fantastic talent such as  Terence Marshall by staying at 30 or even moving down a little bit.

[YoloinOhio]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

I think he can get fantastic talent such as  Terence Marshall by staying at 30 or even moving down a little bit.

Marshall has an medical red flag, I don’t think I would take him that high. Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec reported the Ravens have "cooled on LSU's Terrace Marshall due to injury concerns. 
Marshall, who spent some of 2020 sidelined with a foot issue and struggled with leg injuries in high school, is a prime candidate to fall down draft boards.”