Matt Miller's Team-by-Team Draft Rumors (what he's hearing about the Bills)

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

A RB at 30 is a massive disappointment, IMO. 

 

Okay but why? We're talking about a bottom of the 1st round pick. I feel like the consensus is that a RB at pick 33 is fine, but a RB at pick 32 is a gross misuse of draft capital. Finding difference makers at any position at the bottom of the 1st round is hard. If the player has a major role in helping your team win games, that's a good pick at that spot.

 

Look at the best RBs in the league and where they were drafted:

 

Christian McCafferey #8

Derrick Henry #45

Nick Chubb #35

Ezekiel Elliott #4

Saquon Barkley #2

Dalvin Cook #41

Joe Mixon #48

 

Aaron Jones was drafted #182, Alvin Kamara was drafted #67. Those are the only real difference makers that were drafted after pick 50.

 

I think pick 30 to pick 50 is the sweet spot for RBs. Everyone says you can just find good RBs in the later rounds, but the reality is you find better ones more frequently early in the draft just like every other position.

 

Personally I wouldn't take any RB in the top half of the 1st round - but then again, is McCaffrey at pick 8 really a bad pick? The next several non-QB picks after him were John Ross, Marshon Lattimore, Haasan Reddick, Derek Barnett, Malik Hooker... I could easily argue McCaffrey is better than any of those players. Lattimore is the one you could make a good argument for. So at the end of the day the positional value only matters so much. Find a good player that helps your team win games.

Edited April 15, 2021 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay but why? We're talking about a bottom of the 1st round pick. I feel like the consensus is that a RB at pick 33 is fine, but a RB at pick 32 is a gross misuse of draft capital. Finding difference makers at any position at the bottom of the 1st round is hard. If the player has a major role in helping your team win games, that's a good pick at that spot.

 

Look at the best RBs in the league and where they were drafted:

 

Christian McCafferey #8

Derrick Henry #45

Nick Chubb #35

Ezekiel Elliott #4

Saquon Barkley #2

Dalvin Cook #41

Joe Mixon #48 

 

Aaron Jones was drafted #182, Alvin Kamara was drafted #67. Those are the only real difference makers that were drafted after pick 50.

 

I think pick 30 to pick 50 is the sweet spot for RBs. Everyone says you can just find good RBs in the later rounds, but the reality is you find better ones more frequently early in the draft just like every other position.

 

Personally I wouldn't take any RB in the top half of the 1st round - but then again, is McCaffrey at pick 8 really a bad pick? The next several non-QB picks after him were John Ross, Marshon Lattimore, Haasan Reddick, Derek Barnett, Malik Hooker... I could easily argue McCaffrey is better than any of those players. Lattimore is the one you could make a good argument for. So at the end of the day the positional value only matters so much. Find a good player that helps your team win games.

Because it’s about value over replacement. A great RB compared to a decent RB is closer than a great EDGE compared to a decent EDGE. 
 

a first round pick (because of the fifth year option) should be, on the whole, reserved for players who, if they make a ProBowl or two, will never be allowed to leave the building.  RB just ain’t that. 

[BobbyC81]

15 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Etienne can’t pass block so must be Harris. No way they put him out there on 3rd down in this offense if he can’t pass block 

Lots of good YAC options - Elijah Moore In the 1st 

Speedy CB is a straight up NEED

“can’t pass block” or won’t?   It’s a matter of learning and effort.

[just1hugheser]

Theres about 40 players who are supposed to go in the top 25-30;

 

QB(5)- Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones, Lance  (If someone reaches; Trask, Mills)

RB(2)- Etienne, Harris (Williams, Carter, Gainwell, Hill, Sermon)

WR(4-7)- Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, Marshall Jr, Moore, Bateman (Atwell, Moore, Rogers, etc.)

TE(1-2)- Pitts (Friermuth, Long, Jordan, McKitty, Tremble

OL(5-6)- Sewell, Slater, Jenkins, Mayfield, Darrisaw, Radunz, Eichenberg, Cosmi, Hudson, Leatherwood, Carman, Brown

                Tucker, Davis, Smith, Dickerson, Humphrey, Meinerz

DE/Edge(6)- Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, Oweh, Ossai, Ojulari, Basham Jr, Tryon, Perkins, Roche, Rumph, Turner, Odeyingbo, Sample, Hayes

DT/NT(1-2)- Barmore, Onwuzurike, Nixon, Tufele, Wilson, Shelvin, Odighizuwa, Slaton, Williams, Tonga, Brown, Johnson, Goldwire, Jones

LB(6)- Parsons, JOK, Collins, Jamin Davis, Bolton, Browning,  Surratt, Moses, Britt, Rice, Jones, Rashed, Barnes, Werner, Cox

S(1-2)- Moehrig, Holland, Johnson, Sterns, Nasirildeen, Cisco, Grant, Melifonwu

CB(6-8)-  Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden, Newsome, Joseph, Robinson, Stokes, Campbell, Adebo, St. Juste, Mukuamu, Brown, Wade, Thomas, Williams

 

I know there is some overlap for Edge/DE/LB, I'm just trying to show that there will be at least 10 players left at 30 who most would agree have 1st round grades and hopefully at least a couple of those players are considered elite or top half of the first round grades.

 

Depending on how it falls the Bills could move into the 20's to get someone they love like a Parsons/Collins/JOK at LB or a WR they love that falls like a Toney, same goes for Edge(Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, etc.) and CB(Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden) or just as possible is trading back for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd.

 

Im just brainstorming

 

Also teams need more than just 1 lock down corner, at least thats my opinion even if a team has a good pass rush.

Tthe athleticism of today's QB's allows them to extend plays and make even teams with a good pass rush look silly especially if they can't hold up at the back end, in combination with athletic QB's is that teams have multiple weapons with 2-4 WR's or RB's and TE's forcing defenses to have multiple guys at the 2nd and 3rd level that can cover man to man and be disciplined in a zone.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, just1hugheser said:

Theres about 40 players who are supposed to go in the top 25-30;

 

QB(5)- Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones, Lance  (If someone reaches; Trask, Mills)

RB(2)- Etienne, Harris (Williams, Carter, Gainwell, Hill, Sermon)

WR(4-7)- Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, Marshall Jr, Moore, Bateman (Atwell, Moore, Rogers, etc.)

TE(1-2)- Pitts (Friermuth, Long, Jordan, McKitty, Tremble

OL(5-6)- Sewell, Slater, Jenkins, Mayfield, Darrisaw, Radunz, Eichenberg, Cosmi, Hudson, Leatherwood, Carman, Brown

                Tucker, Davis, Smith, Dickerson, Humphrey, Meinerz

DE/Edge(6)- Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, Oweh, Ossai, Ojulari, Basham Jr, Tryon, Perkins, Roche, Rumph, Turner, Odeyingbo, Sample, Hayes

DT/NT(1-2)- Barmore, Onwuzurike, Nixon, Tufele, Wilson, Shelvin, Odighizuwa, Slaton, Williams, Tonga, Brown, Johnson, Goldwire, Jones

LB(6)- Parsons, JOK, Collins, Jamin Davis, Bolton, Browning,  Surratt, Moses, Britt, Rice, Jones, Rashed, Barnes, Werner, Cox

S(1-2)- Moehrig, Holland, Johnson, Sterns, Nasirildeen, Cisco, Grant, Melifonwu

CB(6-8)-  Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden, Newsome, Joseph, Robinson, Stokes, Campbell, Adebo, St. Juste, Mukuamu, Brown, Wade, Thomas, Williams

 

I know there is some overlap for Edge/DE/LB, I'm just trying to show that there will be at least 10 players left at 30 who most would agree have 1st round grades and hopefully at least a couple of those players are considered elite or top half of the first round grades.

 

Depending on how it falls the Bills could move into the 20's to get someone they love like a Parsons/Collins/JOK at LB or a WR they love that falls like a Toney, same goes for Edge(Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, etc.) and CB(Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden) or just as possible is trading back for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd.

 

Im just brainstorming

 

Also teams need more than just 1 lock down corner, at least thats my opinion even if a team has a good pass rush.

Tthe athleticism of today's QB's allows them to extend plays and make even teams with a good pass rush look silly especially if they can't hold up at the back end, in combination with athletic QB's is that teams have multiple weapons with 2-4 WR's or RB's and TE's forcing defenses to have multiple guys at the 2nd and 3rd level that can cover man to man and be disciplined in a zone.

 

 

I see it differently. I have 18 first round grades and then 3 borderline 1st/2nd round players. But that only takes you to 21 and means there are a minimum of 11 first round draft slots that will be filled by people who I don't think are true first round talents, as is always the case in the draft. And what happens is once you get beyond those first couple of tiers of players then the next group always becomes more jumbled because you get to guys who will be really good fits in some places and not good fits in others. Asante Samuel is my poster boy for that in this draft. If you are the Buccs at #32 I can see why you might think he is worth a late 1st.... but if you are the Bills at #30 he does not fit the scheme at all and you would probably need to get to round 3 before the talent would be such that you would consider him worth the risk despite the scheme misfit. 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

A great RB compared to a decent RB is closer than a great EDGE compared to a decent EDGE. 

 

But it's hard to find great players at that spot, that's my point. The success rate for 1st round picks is around 50%, depending on how you define success. Obviously once you're in the 30s the success rate would be significantly lower than that. If you draft a player that turns out to be above average, it's better than expected. So yes in a vacuum drafting a great DE is better than drafting a great RB, but drafting a great RB is better than drafting a decent DE, and it's impossible to know for sure what you're getting.

 

I recognize that the value of RBs is more short term than other positions, but for a team in the best Super Bowl window it's had in a very long time it's okay to sacrifice long term value a little in exchanging for maximizing the chances in that window. Take a player like Etienne and assume he reaches his potential in the NFL. No question a player with his skill set immediately improves our Super Bowl chances, and he's arguably the most likely player at that spot to reach his potential. I think scouting RBs is relatively easy compared to any other position. You know what you're getting with Etienne. If you feel that his skill set adds something new to your offense, it's absolutely a worthwhile pick at the bottom of the 1st.

Edited April 15, 2021 by HappyDays

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay but why? We're talking about a bottom of the 1st round pick. I feel like the consensus is that a RB at pick 33 is fine, but a RB at pick 32 is a gross misuse of draft capital. Finding difference makers at any position at the bottom of the 1st round is hard. If the player has a major role in helping your team win games, that's a good pick at that spot.

 

 

The reason why some think top of the 2nd is okay but bottom of 1sr is not is for 1st round picks the team has a 5th year option on contract.  It is rare that a team will use a 5th year option on a RB so it is seen as a waste.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

The reason why some think top of the 2nd is okay but bottom of 1sr is not is for 1st round picks the team has a 5th year option on contract.  It is rare that a team will use a 5th year option on a RB so it is seen as a waste.

 

In 2019, only 4 players drafted between pick 20 and 32 in 2016 has their 5th year option picked up. Last year it was 6 players. So over a 2 year range it's 38% of players drafted in that range that have their 5th year option picked up. I also think you could get 6 or 7 really good years out of a player like Etienne. If you draft any player at pick 30 and you get 5 or more really good years out of them, that's a great pick.

[Rk_Bills86]

I think most people would agree that a very slight trade down out of the first is a high likely hood for us. I think not having a 4th rounder is a killer for this draft class. While I somewhat agree with the assessment of the Bills looking for a playmaker, I think a more accurate statement would be "Athletic Freak". The Bills coaching staff has shown an incredible job of being able to coach and work with what they have to this point. I wouldn't be shocked if we get some picks of players that have some incredible workout numbers and limited exposure. 

 

We have a team with no "GLARING" needs, so at this point it's all about upgrading to elite talent and getting equal==younger talent at positions.

 

Highest two positional needs: DE and CB2

Areas where I could see us getting younger: DT (Specifically a Space Eater), G/C, and S

Food For Thought pick: We run 4-2-5 90% of the time - would this be true if we had a beast SAM. Also what value would a tweener S/LB have for us. Can't think of his name, but The guy from the Chargers comes to mind as being something we'd love.

[Paul Costa]

The Warlock 🧙‍♂️  they refer to as Brandon Beene is letting no intel out of One Bills Drive. You can look at all of the College players they interview. You can see where the scouts are going. But Matt Miller or no one else outside of One Bills Drive has any idea who we are drafting. Matt Miller’s speculations are 100% educated guesses. They make a lot of sense but totally just a educated guess. Some great dialogue on this thread. Good stuff ✅

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

22 hours ago, Logic said:

The popular wisdom is that they're taking a corner or edge rusher in round 1.

I'm starting to wonder, though, if it's actually going to be an offensive playmaker in round 1, followed by a corner in round 2. The depth of the corner class leads me to think they can reasonably select a starting caliber corner in round 2 or even round 3. 

Beane always says that playoff losses show you where you're lacking. Our loss to the Chiefs showed us lacking in coverage and pass rush, sure....but don't tell me Beane didn't notice the elite speed and playmaking capability of the KC offense, too. Whereas the Bills have a great receiving corps as is, what they DON'T have -- either in the WR or RB room -- is an "instant offense" guy like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman. 

Great post. Based on how the draft board looks this year and the fact that late first round 4-3 edge rushers almost never pan out (Joe Marino has mentioned this about 10 times on his podcast), I'm fully on board with this approach. Getting Kadarius Toney or Elijah Moore in the 1st and then adding a CB like Ifeatu Melifonwu, Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell, Benjamin St-Juste, or Kelvin Joseph in the second might be my ideal start to the draft (unless a Paye or JOK type falls to us at #30). 

 

Put a simpler way, think of how nervous you were every time Tyreek Hill caught the ball against the Bills last year and what he could do in space. Now imagine if we had a player like that on the Bills and what that could do for our offense. Then also think about what a young DB who could actually turn and run with Hill in man coverage could add to our defense. 

 

It's true that the Bills need to be better at rushing the passer, but unless Paye falls, I don't think we're in position to add someone who can have a Day 1 impact at that position. We also lack and therefore really need elite speed on both sides of the ball and a draft like this would accomplish that.

 

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great post. Based on how the draft board looks this year and the fact that late first round 4-3 edge rushers almost never pan out (Joe Marino has mentioned this about 10 times on his podcast), I'm fully on board with this approach. Getting Kadarius Toney or Elijah Moore in the 1st and then adding a CB like Ifeatu Melifonwu, Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell, Benjamin St-Juste, or Kelvin Joseph in the second might be my ideal start to the draft (unless a Paye or JOK type falls to us at #30). 

 

Put a simpler way, think of how nervous you were every time Tyreek Hill caught the ball against the Bills last year and what he could do in space. Now imagine if we had a player like that on the Bills and what that could do for our offense. Then also think about what a young DB who could actually turn and run with Hill in man coverage could add to our defense. 

 

It's true that the Bills need to be better at rushing the passer, but unless Paye falls, I don't think we're in position to add someone who can have a Day 1 impact at that position. We also lack and therefore really need elite speed on both sides of the ball and a draft like this would accomplish that.

 

I agree with all of this, though even as a fan of Kadarius Toney, he's nowhere near as fast as Tyreek Hill. Probably one of the most slippery WRs I've seen after the catch, but he's not a world class speed guy nor has he proven to be much of a deep threat yet.

[TheBeaneBandit]

15 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great post. Based on how the draft board looks this year and the fact that late first round 4-3 edge rushers almost never pan out (Joe Marino has mentioned this about 10 times on his podcast), I'm fully on board with this approach. Getting Kadarius Toney or Elijah Moore in the 1st and then adding a CB like Ifeatu Melifonwu, Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell, Benjamin St-Juste, or Kelvin Joseph in the second might be my ideal start to the draft (unless a Paye or JOK type falls to us at #30). 

 

Put a simpler way, think of how nervous you were every time Tyreek Hill caught the ball against the Bills last year and what he could do in space. Now imagine if we had a player like that on the Bills and what that could do for our offense. Then also think about what a young DB who could actually turn and run with Hill in man coverage could add to our defense. 

 

It's true that the Bills need to be better at rushing the passer, but unless Paye falls, I don't think we're in position to add someone who can have a Day 1 impact at that position. We also lack and therefore really need elite speed on both sides of the ball and a draft like this would accomplish that.

 

Awesome post and I agree spot on. I'm a 90% of the time build the lines guy but I believe the value lines up at WR,CB, maybe even RB this year. I would even suggest move up a bit higher in the 2nd to ensure the Bills can snag one of the guys in the "2nd tier" of CB's if need be.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I agree with all of this, though even as a fan of Kadarius Toney, he's nowhere near as fast as Tyreek Hill. Probably one of the most slippery WRs I've seen after the catch, but he's not a world class speed guy nor has he proven to be much of a deep threat yet.

Good point. He looks about as fast as Hill on the field at times, but Hill ran a 4.29 40 Yd Dash. 

 

Forty Yard Dash Times for the Bad Guys:

Hill 4.29

Hardman 4.33

 

Forty Yard Dash Times for the Potential Good Guys:

Anthony Schwartz 4.26 (!!!!!)

Rondale Moore 4.29 (not very interested given his injury history)

Shi Smith 4.33

Elijah Moore 4.35 (my ideal target for WR at pick #30)

Simi Fehoko 4.37 (insane size/speed combo, very raw prospect, but I wouldn't mind him in the mid rounds)

Dee Eskridge 4.38

Kadarius Toney 4.39

[Rockinon]

22 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think that they need impact this year - would be happy to get it, but they need to balance who is most ready to help immediately vs who can help most in the long-term.

 

I don’t like taking super athletes who did not produce in college, but likewise I am not crazy about taking a highly productive player with low ceiling, either.

I understand what you are saying, but whoever they do pick, they are still looking for someone who can start. That is an impact. When I said impact player, I meant someone who can step right in and contribute. Even if it ends up being an offensive lineman, that's still an impact if they end up starting. Picking at 30 is a tough spot to be in, though. Going to be hard to find those kinds of players.

[just1hugheser]

 

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I see it differently. I have 18 first round grades and then 3 borderline 1st/2nd round players. But that only takes you to 21 and means there are a minimum of 11 first round draft slots that will be filled by people who I don't think are true first round talents, as is always the case in the draft. And what happens is once you get beyond those first couple of tiers of players then the next group always becomes more jumbled because you get to guys who will be really good fits in some places and not good fits in others. Asante Samuel is my poster boy for that in this draft. If you are the Buccs at #32 I can see why you might think he is worth a late 1st.... but if you are the Bills at #30 he does not fit the scheme at all and you would probably need to get to round 3 before the talent would be such that you would consider him worth the risk despite the scheme misfit. 

 

 

I agree I have 22 players with a 1st round grade, I should have prefaced with a based on the media and the "talk" out there overall it looks like there are about 30-40 players who teams, as you said depending on scheme and culture to take into account, believe are worthy of a first round pick.  Aside from really missing that 4th round pick I think the Bills are well positioned to "let the draft come to them" if one of their guys falls to them at 30 or within their range of trading up to snag their guy as they have done in the past.  To me it feels more like they might trade back to try and get another 2nd and 3rd round picks because after that top 10-20 players comes off the board, the elite guys, there are a lot of quality players that can have an immediate impact for the Bills, especially in the secondary and OLine.

 

Personally I'm becoming a fan of taking a couple of secondary players, I like the height/size/speed combo's that are available guys like Stokes, Campbell, Melifonwu, Williams, Wade, Adebo these are not first round guys but even the top guys are all over 6ft with the exception of Samuel.

 

I guess the point I was trying to make is that Bills will have plenty of talent to pick from and just because the consensus our no. 1 need is DE/Edge rush doesnt mean that has to be our first pick or even can be addressed in this draft at all due to the lack of can't miss edge rushers, I'm not taking a developmental edge rusher in the 1st round no matter how off the charts his measurables are.

[Solomon Grundy]

7 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great post. Based on how the draft board looks this year and the fact that late first round 4-3 edge rushers almost never pan out (Joe Marino has mentioned this about 10 times on his podcast), I'm fully on board with this approach. Getting Kadarius Toney or Elijah Moore in the 1st and then adding a CB like Ifeatu Melifonwu, Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell, Benjamin St-Juste, or Kelvin Joseph in the second might be my ideal start to the draft (unless a Paye or JOK type falls to us at #30). 

 

Put a simpler way, think of how nervous you were every time Tyreek Hill caught the ball against the Bills last year and what he could do in space. Now imagine if we had a player like that on the Bills and what that could do for our offense. Then also think about what a young DB who could actually turn and run with Hill in man coverage could add to our defense. 

 

It's true that the Bills need to be better at rushing the passer, but unless Paye falls, I don't think we're in position to add someone who can have a Day 1 impact at that position. We also lack and therefore really need elite speed on both sides of the ball and a draft like this would accomplish that.

 

Toney and Moore are great players, but the Bills need a Eric Moulds type receiver to compliment Diggs. Marshall Jr. is my guy. Could be the next best duo since Peerless and Moulds

[just1hugheser]

Right so when I say "let the draft come to them"  I'm saying wait and see what value falls, does a Paye or Parsons/Phillips fall in the 15-20 range or does a WR(Toney/Marshall/Bateman) fall or do they have a real high grade on Etienne or Harris if they are there, how do they feel about JOK, Zaven Collins, Jamin Davis?

 

Will they wait on edge like Perkins or Roche?

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, just1hugheser said:

Theres about 40 players who are supposed to go in the top 25-30;

 

QB(5)- Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones, Lance  (If someone reaches; Trask, Mills)

RB(2)- Etienne, Harris (Williams, Carter, Gainwell, Hill, Sermon)

WR(4-7)- Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, Marshall Jr, Moore, Bateman (Atwell, Moore, Rogers, etc.)

TE(1-2)- Pitts (Friermuth, Long, Jordan, McKitty, Tremble

OL(5-6)- Sewell, Slater, Jenkins, Mayfield, Darrisaw, Radunz, Eichenberg, Cosmi, Hudson, Leatherwood, Carman, Brown

                Tucker, Davis, Smith, Dickerson, Humphrey, Meinerz

DE/Edge(6)- Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, Oweh, Ossai, Ojulari, Basham Jr, Tryon, Perkins, Roche, Rumph, Turner, Odeyingbo, Sample, Hayes

DT/NT(1-2)- Barmore, Onwuzurike, Nixon, Tufele, Wilson, Shelvin, Odighizuwa, Slaton, Williams, Tonga, Brown, Johnson, Goldwire, Jones

LB(6)- Parsons, JOK, Collins, Jamin Davis, Bolton, Browning,  Surratt, Moses, Britt, Rice, Jones, Rashed, Barnes, Werner, Cox

S(1-2)- Moehrig, Holland, Johnson, Sterns, Nasirildeen, Cisco, Grant, Melifonwu

CB(6-8)-  Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden, Newsome, Joseph, Robinson, Stokes, Campbell, Adebo, St. Juste, Mukuamu, Brown, Wade, Thomas, Williams

 

I know there is some overlap for Edge/DE/LB, I'm just trying to show that there will be at least 10 players left at 30 who most would agree have 1st round grades and hopefully at least a couple of those players are considered elite or top half of the first round grades.

 

Depending on how it falls the Bills could move into the 20's to get someone they love like a Parsons/Collins/JOK at LB or a WR they love that falls like a Toney, same goes for Edge(Paye, Phillips, Rousseau, etc.) and CB(Horn, Farley, Surtain, Samuel, Molden) or just as possible is trading back for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd.

 

Im just brainstorming

 

Also teams need more than just 1 lock down corner, at least thats my opinion even if a team has a good pass rush.

Tthe athleticism of today's QB's allows them to extend plays and make even teams with a good pass rush look silly especially if they can't hold up at the back end, in combination with athletic QB's is that teams have multiple weapons with 2-4 WR's or RB's and TE's forcing defenses to have multiple guys at the 2nd and 3rd level that can cover man to man and be disciplined in a zone.

 

 

 

Good post

 

Welcome aboard 

[just1hugheser]

Thanks Balls,

 

I should have pre-faced with a based on the media and the "talk" out there, teams in total have about 25-35 players with 1st round grades, this depends on scheme, culture and of course differences in scouting for example Charlie Casserly talked to all 32 teams and 10 of them had Tyson Campbell as their 4th rated corner behind Horn, Surtain and Farley. 

 

Ive been a long time reader here at TBD, I was originally on the buffalobills.com message board and came over here but hadn't gotten into posting again until just now for whatever reason, I'm thinking of guys like Shaw, Beast, Teef, Virgil, Grundy I think and a whole bunch of others from that old message board.

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

The reason why some think top of the 2nd is okay but bottom of 1sr is not is for 1st round picks the team has a 5th year option on contract.  It is rare that a team will use a 5th year option on a RB so it is seen as a waste.

I understand that is the logic, but I think this is over-hyped.  
 

Force-fitting an OK prospect at a high value position over a better prospect at a lesser position does not make much sense, to me.  Sure, roll the dice on an OK DE prospect and *maybe*, just maybe he will turn out to be good enough to exercise the 5th year option, but there are many where the option isn’t exercised.  I can certainly imagine a scenario where a player at a “lesser” position does have 5th year option exercised.  
 

I am not advocating for this, but I it hard to imagine someone like Landon Dickerson getting healthy and being good enough at C or G to use that option?

[maddenboy]

On 4/14/2021 at 3:11 PM, Brennan Huff said:

Fred Jackson went to Coe college 

Incorrect.  Fred Jackson went to Tiny Coe College.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

50 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Toney and Moore are great players, but the Bills need a Eric Moulds type receiver to compliment Diggs. Marshall Jr. is my guy. Could be the next best duo since Peerless and Moulds

Yeah true, Marshall has great speed and gives you size as well. Honestly a good shout. 

[Solomon Grundy]

16 hours ago, just1hugheser said:

Right so when I say "let the draft come to them"  I'm saying wait and see what value falls, does a Paye or Parsons/Phillips fall in the 15-20 range or does a WR(Toney/Marshall/Bateman) fall or do they have a real high grade on Etienne or Harris if they are there, how do they feel about JOK, Zaven Collins, Jamin Davis?

 

Will they wait on edge like Perkins or Roche?

I can see Roche being a Shaq Barrett type player. He can flat out get after the QB!! 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

This makes all too much sense and I’m hear for it

[NoSaint]

On 4/14/2021 at 10:48 AM, Logic said:

If you know Matt Miller, you know that he's one of the better voices in the scouting community. He's reasonably well connected, and he puts out good, sane, accurate content year after year.

He puts out an annual "what I'm hearing" article as the draft approaches, and it often contains good insight into which way teams are leaning. He has more info about some teams than others, but he shares at least a little something about all 32 teams.

The full version of this article is behind a paywall, but a kind soul shared a guest pass with me and I was able to read it. I may just end up subscribing to thedraftscout website anyway, because there's a lot of great content there.

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team

Here is what Miller says about the Bills:

Buffalo — A playmaker on either side of the ball is the rumor coming out of Buffalo. They’ll play the board and let talented athletes slip to them as always, but a speedy cornerback, yards-after-catch wide receiver or three-down running back would all get a lot of consideration here. That could easily be the first three picks for Buffalo.




...I don't know about the rest of you, but I find that pretty darn interesting. We all know they're looking for a more athletic and well-rounded cornerback, but the RAC receiver and three down running back tidbits -- and the lack of any mention of pass rushers or offensive linemen -- is eyebrow-raising.

p.s. Save me the "no one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out!" reply. Yes, the Bills run a tight ship. No, it's not impossible for certain well connected people to find out which ways they're leaning. Yes, it could all be a smokescreen -- but I doubt it. 

DE - unlikely to get an immediate game changer there

OL - we are win now and not likely to move the needle there 

 

you can find elite backs, athletic secondary players and good receivers there and all 3 are immediate contributors and fill holes down the line. 
 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see OL and DE on day 2 though as a more developmental piece 

[gonzo1105]

Yea I’m starting to think Bills are going WR, CB first two rounds just based on value

[OrtonHearsaWho]

On 4/14/2021 at 4:45 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

injury and size concerns with him - not saying he couldn't be a consideration, but he does not fit all of the desired parameters.

 

I'm hoping both of those things bump him to the second round but wouldn't be upset if we took him at 30.  He reminds me of Steve Smith a bit but faster.  Either Moore at 30 would be a better move than a RB at 30.

[billsfan89]

It will likely be a case of the Bills just letting the draft come to them. I can see DE or CB being the pick on the defensive side or if they go offense it will be WR or RB. In terms of team need Edge is by far the teams biggest need but I don’t see McBeane reaching if there just isn’t one there that makes sense. 
 

NT And TE are also needs but I don’t see that lining up either. Overall it is just going to come down to who is available at pick 30 and that’s a good spot to be in.

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

It will likely be a case of the Bills just letting the draft come to them. I can see DE or CB being the pick on the defensive side or if they go offense it will be WR or RB. In terms of team need Edge is by far the teams biggest need but I don’t see McBeane reaching if there just isn’t one there that makes sense. 
 

NT And TE are also needs but I don’t see that lining up either. Overall it is just going to come down to who is available at pick 30 and that’s a good spot to be in.

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

[whorlnut]

23 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

I don’t want Basham at all. Imo he is much of the same player as Epenesa, who am still pissed that they took. We don’t need another lumbering DE that they ask to lose a bunch of weight. Either find that guy who is that player already or don’t draft a guy trying to change his playing style. 

[fergie's ire]

On 4/15/2021 at 6:49 PM, maddenboy said:

Incorrect.  Fred Jackson went to Tiny Coe College.

Really?!  Did you know that Marv Levy went there, too?

[JaCrispy]

27 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I don’t want Basham at all. Imo he is much of the same player as Epenesa, who am still pissed that they took. We don’t need another lumbering DE that they ask to lose a bunch of weight. Either find that guy who is that player already or don’t draft a guy trying to change his playing style. 

AJ got a lot faster once he lost the weight, and he started coming on in the last few games...curious to see his growth this season...I still think he has good potential...👍

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

I don’t think they are going to target interior Oline at pick 30, I think with the resigning of Mongo and the productive play of Ike and Ford being there for depth and competition I just don’t see McBeane passing on other more impactful players who will likely be there either at corner, edge or a offensive skill position. It isn’t impossible but it is rather unlikely.

 

I see Edge and Corner as the most likely possibilities with an offensive skill position player being possible if the value isn’t there.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

If BPA at 30 is an offensive lineman I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull the trigger....especially if he can play LT. 
 

If I had to guess, as of right now I’d bet they take a corner at 30. 

 

LT?  LOL!  No.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

If BPA at 30 is an offensive lineman I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull the trigger....especially if he can play LT. 
 

If I had to guess, as of right now I’d bet they take a corner at 30. 

I just don’t see a draft scenario where a LT or an Oline fits, it would be a depth pick at pick 30 when this team has legit needs (Edge, CB,NT or TE) and other areas where a “luxury” pick could be more useful (WR or RB.)

 

I just think it is far more likely a player falls that fits one of those many other catagories.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

LT?  LOL!  No.

 

A tackle is not out of the question. Williams is basically a 1 year deal if they want it to be. The point I think @ScottLaw was making about left tackle is if you are drafting a tackle in round 1 you should always be asking "can he play left tackle?" Even if your intention is to start him initially on the right or at guard because you have your left tackle already in situ.

I don't think it will be a tackle at #30 but I don't think it is unthinkable.

[MrSarcasm]

8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I don’t think they are going to target interior Oline at pick 30, I think with the resigning of Mongo and the productive play of Ike and Ford being there for depth and competition I just don’t see McBeane passing on other more impactful players who will likely be there either at corner, edge or a offensive skill position. It isn’t impossible but it is rather unlikely.

 

I see Edge and Corner as the most likely possibilities with an offensive skill position player being possible if the value isn’t there.

I'll disagree here. Center is a very high possibility here.

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

I'll disagree here. Center is a very high possibility here.

Creed Humphrey could be a darkhorse man.....he could realistically beat out Mongo or Ford and slide into center in 2022. 

[stinky finger]

On 4/17/2021 at 1:02 PM, OrtonHearsaWho said:

 

I'm hoping both of those things bump him to the second round but wouldn't be upset if we took him at 30.  He reminds me of Steve Smith a bit but faster.  Either Moore at 30 would be a better move than a RB at 30.