Texans releasing JJ Watt

[Turbo44]

8 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

GB is $30M + over the cap according to OTC.  Not likely they are spending big this off season.  

Great news - thanks!!

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wouldn't have picked Allen, true. But the two situations are totally incomparable. And I wasn't disputing any of the other examples you cited. Just Logan Thomas. You don't hold onto guys who show nothing for 4 years.... just in case.

 

Whoa that is NOT what I claimed. 

 

Not 4 years.   Thomas only played two years for the Bills.   He was on the PS the last month of the season with the Bills in 2016 when he first decided to convert from QB to TE.   He didn't do much with the Bills but those two offenses were nightmarishly bad.    Especially first half 2018, historically inept offense.   He showed something in year 3 as a TE......in Detroit.......in limited reps showed that he could move the chains............that's why he got the two year deal with Washington.    

[Turbo44]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Lack of cap space just means teams have to be more creative.  If Watt and the team he desires want to make it happen, they’ll make it happen.  New Orleans probably only team that cap is a factor for, but they still always find a way to make it work.  

Usually would agree but this year with the cap going down, cap creativity bid limited

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not 4 years.   Thomas only played two years for the Bills.   He was on the PS the last month of the season with the Bills in 2016 when he first decided to convert from QB to TE.   He didn't do much with the Bills but those two offenses were nightmarishly bad.    Especially first half 2018, historically inept offense.   He showed something in year 3 as a TE......in Detroit.......in limited reps showed that he could move the chains............that's why he got the two year deal with Washington.    

Hence why he wasn't retained.

 

Are we supposed to keep players who don't do much in case they perform decently 2 years later?

 

How is this even an argument?

32 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You and @GunnerBill and @NewEra can claim he's just a scrub on a bad team.........but you guys are wrong.........he's become a very good receiving TE.   Watch the games guys.  

 

 

Also, please let me know how much this "very good" recieving TE with one solid year as the second most targeted player with poor efficiency numbers is going to get paid?  Probably Tyler Kroft money, which is the going rate for a TE with one solid season after being a nothingburger his whole career.

[Rc2catch]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not 4 years.   Thomas only played two years for the Bills.   He was on the PS the last month of the season with the Bills in 2016 when he first decided to convert from QB to TE.   He didn't do much with the Bills but those two offenses were nightmarishly bad.    Especially first half 2018, historically inept offense.   He showed something in year 3 as a TE......in Detroit.......in limited reps showed that he could move the chains............that's why he got the two year deal with Washington.    

So you’re saying with 100+ targets Knox couldn’t put up similar numbers? 100 targets is a crazy amount of passes to a tight end 

[Dukestreetking]

2 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Yes his pass rush win rate was very high according to ESPN, I'd like him as a rotational player. He certainly could make a difference where we need it.

I've changed my mind in last 24hr: I do like JJW...in the role you describe. Football idea being obvious: 2 symbiotic edge rushers; vets who still have 1-2 yrs of high-ish level in the tank.

 

Further, he would seem to be a great cultural fit.

 

But, and there's always a but, financials: I honestly don't think it's possible, esp as role player. But, keeping open mind...

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Not 4 years.   Thomas only played two years for the Bills.   He was on the PS the last month of the season with the Bills in 2016 when he first decided to convert from QB to TE.   He didn't do much with the Bills but those two offenses were nightmarishly bad.    Especially first half 2018, historically inept offense.   He showed something in year 3 as a TE......in Detroit.......in limited reps showed that he could move the chains............that's why he got the two year deal with Washington.    

 

Yes... 17 and 18 here, 19 in Detroit, before he broke out in 20 in Washington. Good for him, but no way that could have been anticipated. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Did I miss something?  Is JJ a TE now?

[Rc2catch]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Did I miss something?  Is JJ a TE now?

Are you new here? We are of course signing him and converting him to tight end to play alongside Duke williams. 
Then moving Dawkins to RT, trading for brown in Baltimore for a 2 and 4 and then extending him a top 5 LT contract. Oh and Milano is getting franchise tagged then traded for a 3 and a 5 I guess too 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Ultimately, if you get credited for things that work out........you also get credited for those that don't work out.

 

And how should we make a final determination whether more things work out then don’t work out?

 

Perhaps we could look at the teams 13-3 record and reaching the Championship game as evidence ?

[4_kidd_4]

8 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Are you new here? We are of course signing him and converting him to tight end to play alongside Duke williams. 
Then moving Dawkins to RT, trading for brown in Baltimore for a 2 and 4 and then extending him a top 5 LT contract. Oh and Milano is getting franchise tagged then traded for a 3 and a 5 I guess too 

 

While we’re at it, what’s Mike Jasper up to these days?

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Should I be mashing the F5 key or is Watt going to drag this on for months? 🤪

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Should I be mashing the F5 key or is Watt going to drag this on for months? 🤪

I think someone said he was taking the weekend.

[whatdrought]

3 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Should I be mashing the F5 key or is Watt going to drag this on for months? 🤪

Probably not till next weekend. Teams are still trying to get a feel for what to expect this year with tags and whatnot, so I don’t think anyone on any side is in a huge rush.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes... 17 and 18 here, 19 in Detroit, before he broke out in 20 in Washington. Good for him, but no way that could have been anticipated. 

 

The way to anticipate the possibility would be to take into account a guy transitioning from QB to TE and having to do it while learning 6 different playbooks between November 28 of 2016 and the summer of 2020.   The Bills offenses of 2017 and 2018 were very different and both made it very hard to evaluate the talent on the team.     After 2018 they gave up on Logan Thomas and Wyatt Teller.   Two guys that would get a lot of scratch on the free agent market now.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The way to anticipate the possibility would be to take into account a guy transitioning from QB to TE and having to do it while learning 6 different playbooks between November 28 of 2016 and the summer of 2020.   The Bills offenses of 2017 and 2018 were very different and both made it very hard to evaluate the talent on the team.     After 2018 they gave up on Logan Thomas and Wyatt Teller.   Two guys that would get a lot of scratch on the free agent market now.

 

And on Teller I think it is safe to say a guard who was okay as a rookie when he got on the field and was then traded before his 2nd year.... even at that point there was reasonable chance he would turn out to be good. At the point they let Thomas walk I'd have put those chances below 10%. And for all your "he showed promise in Detorit..." he had 170 yards. I am not saying he can't play. He can. But he is an exception that proves the rule.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And on Teller I think it is safe to say a guard who was okay as a rookie when he got on the field and was then traded before his 2nd year.... even at that point there was reasonable chance he would turn out to be good. 

 

The reviews on Teller were mixed as a rookie.  Thomas was new to the position but his physical talent was known.   He was a top recruit and stud athlete.

 

I think the odds that Teller would become a second team All Pro when he played just 11 games.....not just "good"........and the chance that Thomas would emerge as a good receiving TE.....were not as different as you'd like to make it seem.

 

It will be fun to watch Thomas next year he was really beasting at the end of the season.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The reviews on Teller were mixed as a rookie.  Thomas was new to the position but his physical talent was known.   He was a top recruit and stud athlete.

 

I think the odds that Teller would become a second team All Pro when he played just 11 games.....not just "good"........and the chance that Thomas would emerge as a good receiving TE.....were not as different as you'd like to make it seem.

 

It will be fun to watch Thomas next year he was really beasting at the end of the season.

Coincidentally, when he was getting 9/7/16/12/6/9 targets in his last 6 games.

 

Like you said, offensive skill positions were horrendous in 17/18. Almost all of their careers are all pretty much over. LT is the aberration. Good for him.

[Paulus]

 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Paulus

[HOUSE]

3 minutes ago, Paulus said:

 

 

 

I left my wallet in the car

[Buffalo_Stampede]

40 minutes ago, Paulus said:

 

 

[Clyde Smith]

1 hour ago, Paulus said:

 

 

What if we donated and he goes elsewhere, then what? We look like a buncha moronic donating Minions.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

So you’re saying with 100+ targets Knox couldn’t put up similar numbers? 100 targets is a crazy amount of passes to a tight end 

 

100+ targets TE for the last couple seasons are Waller/Kelce/Kittle or Ertz in 2019 numbers.

On that number of targets, all but Ertz broke 1000 yards, and Ertz had >900 yards

 

Thomas had 610 yds.

 

I'm not trying to take away from him, he had a good year and played capably

But if he were playing for us, I think we'd be talking about how he wasn't a difference maker at TE, and didn't get enough YAC

 

1 hour ago, Paulus said:

 

 

 

I mean, we have no idea at this point if the Bills are going to make him a serious offer

 

[Dr.Sack]

Bills Mafia now bribing players to sign. Love it. 

[Paulus]

10 minutes ago, Clyde Smith said:

What if we donated and he goes elsewhere, then what? We look like a buncha moronic donating Minions.

Money still goes to charity. What is wrong with tithing for nothing in return?

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

100+ targets TE for the last couple seasons are Waller/Kelce/Kittle or Ertz in 2019 numbers.

On that number of targets, all but Ertz broke 1000 yards, and Ertz had >900 yards

 

Thomas had 610 yds.

 

I'm not trying to take away from him, he had a good year and played capably

But if he were playing for us, I think we'd be talking about how he wasn't a difference maker at TE, and didn't get enough YAC

 

 

I mean, we have no idea at this point if the Bills are going to make him a serious offer

 

Yeah, in McBeane we trust. But, why not potentially make his job easier,  while giving to needy children at the same time? I mean, tithing is also an obligation for many, as well.

[Clyde Smith]

That comment was mostly for s***s and giggles. I have no problem donating and not being reciprocated for it. That is the whole point of donating.

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, Paulus said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Clyde Smith said:

What if we donated and he goes elsewhere, then what? We look like a buncha moronic donating Minions.

 

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I mean, we have no idea at this point if the Bills are going to make him a serious offer

Eh I don't know never want to talk anyone out of donating to charity but it is kind of a weird thing to do.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I mean, we have no idea at this point if the Bills are going to make him a serious offer

 

This. I'm waiting for something further than "the Bills called" before I get excited. For all we know the call could have just been "You want how much? Okay, cool, nice talking to you".

Edited February 14, 2021 by BillsFanForever19

[Paulus]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Eh I don't know never want to talk anyone out of donating to charity but it is kind of a weird thing to do.

No.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Paulus said:

Money still goes to charity. What is wrong with tithing for nothing in return?

 

Absolutely nothing wrong with giving, but why not give to a cause that serves one's local community or is near to one's personal heart, instead of to an athlete's foundation in the hope of influencing him?

[YoloinOhio]

Is this a sign

 

 

[Paulus]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Absolutely nothing wrong with giving, but why not give to a cause that serves one's local community or is near to one's personal heart, instead of to an athlete's foundation in the hope of influencing him?

People sometimes need a bit of extra motivation to give. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the net result of monies given to charity, because of Bills' Mafia grabbing Watt's ear, is higher than if the idea was never broached. Overall the aftermath is a more money to charity, and thus I support it. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Paulus

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Is this a sign

 

 

 

 

I don't think the Bears are a likely destination.

[Sherlock Holmes]

6 hours ago, Paulus said:

 

 

Oh my...that picture of JJ in our uni! Let's mount up indeed

Edited February 14, 2021 by Sherlock Holmes

[JGMcD2]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm not trying to take away from him, he had a good year and played capably

But if he were playing for us, I think we'd be talking about how he wasn't a difference maker at TE, and didn't get enough YAC

I know people say that they don’t like to do this... but if you give Logan Thomas the same amount of targets as Dawson Knox his numbers are actually worse....

 

I’m not saying the same thing happens - Thomas definitely ends up providing more value this year. 
 

What I am saying is that there weren’t 110 targets on this offense for Thomas. There are only so many targets to go around. You can give him all of Knox’s targets, but then where do we go from there? How many does he pull from Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Davis? Probably not enough to make a substantial difference and not nearly enough to put up the numbers he did in Washington. 
 

Fine player who benefited from being better than the majority of the options in a bad offense. I’ll say it again, even though I’ve been made fun of for this. When you scout in baseball, you look at a player and try to place them where they would fit on a championship caliber team. That’s where you start with you grading. Is Logan Thomas a difference maker on a championship caliber team? He’s a nice role player who’s a good second tier starter, but he’s not putting anyone over the top. Just because John Means is the ace of the Baltimore Orioles doesn’t mean he’s an actual “ace pitcher” by definition. He’s a #5 starter/swing man at best on a championship caliber club and he would be graded by scouts as such. 
 

Another common way it’s phrased is “this guy is a first division starter or he’s a second division starter.” Comes from the idea early on in baseball that teams in the top half of the division were the “first division” and teams in the bottom half were in the “second division.” A first division starter would be able to start on almost any team in the league and second division starter would only typically be able to start on less talented teams. 
 

Logan Thomas is a second division starter. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billever76]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/browns/.amp/news/jj-watt-not-interested-in-steelers

[BigdaddyinOrlando]

It does seem as though our training staff and methods are very good with preventing a lot of muscle and odd injuries that seem to have effected Watt recently, might be an added incentive on the Bills side along with a very good team and top QB. Could be an extra thing to sway him to the. Ills if he so desires and the team goes after him aggressively. JMO. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I know people say that they don’t like to do this... but if you give Logan Thomas the same amount of targets as Dawson Knox his numbers are actually worse....

 

I’m not saying the same thing happens - Thomas definitely ends up providing more value this year. 

 

The problem with this - and I say it as someone who thinks no reasonable person could consider letting Thomas leave after 2018 a mistake - is that Thomas despite much inferior QB play caught 65% of his targets. With top 5 QB play Knox caught 54%. Even give Knox the same targets I am not sure he delivers the same production.

[TBBills]

4 hours ago, Billever76 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/browns/.amp/news/jj-watt-not-interested-in-steelers

Who would want a team on the decline.

 

Gregg was wrong on that news.

Edited February 14, 2021 by TBBills

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Who would want a team on the decline.

 

Gregg was wrong on that news.

 

Think JJ wants a ring. If it is AFC the Titans make some sense if he doesn't feel that is too much of a middle finger to Houston. After that the Bills make as much sense as anyone in the conference. I'd still put Green Bay #1 though.

Edited February 14, 2021 by GunnerBill