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Gamblers Thread: Bills @ Chiefs Championship game


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This game is a Vegas nightmare. I was looking around today, I’ve seen everything from Buffalo -2.5 to +3 and everything in between. You can basically play whatever spread you want, just need to pick the right bookie. 

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5 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

Hard not to take kc -3  even as a bills fan

 

Really?  The Bills have won 8 in a row by an average of 17 points a game. Also, if Mahomes plays he is on a bad foot and might have some lingering effects from his head/neck injury.  If not for a missed helmet to helmet call the Chiefs might have not even beaten the Browns.  That team is not the 2019 Chiefs.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BITE ME said:

 

Really?  The Bills have won 8 in a row by an average of 17 points a game. Also, if Mahomes plays he is on a bad foot and might have some lingering effects from his head/neck injury.  If not for a missed helmet to helmet call the Chiefs might have not even beaten the Browns.  That team is not the 2019 Chiefs.

 

 

I hope so but man they have so many weapons and if sugar high josh comes out we may get destroyed.

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1 minute ago, Sharky7337 said:

I hope so but man they have so many weapons and if sugar high josh comes out we may get destroyed.

 

Allen will be fine.  This is the worst defense he has played in a long time.  If the Bills lose it will be because Mahomes  found a way to be the usual Mahomes. I think the Bills are going to score a ton.  Unfortunatley the Chiefs sometime score a ton too.  I really don't think Mahomes is very healthy, but we will see.

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1 hour ago, Sharky7337 said:

I hope so but man they have so many weapons and if sugar high josh comes out we may get destroyed.

 

Take this from a known (at times, but often misunderstood (right, @Chandler#81??) troll.  Try harder.

 

 

 

Edited by Gugny
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2 hours ago, BITE ME said:

 

Really?  The Bills have won 8 in a row by an average of 17 points a game. Also, if Mahomes plays he is on a bad foot and might have some lingering effects from his head/neck injury.  If not for a missed helmet to helmet call the Chiefs might have not even beaten the Browns.  That team is not the 2019 Chiefs.

 

 

Hell yea. Tell it like it is. If chiefs are slow out of the gate the Bills will punch their ticket to the SB

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Prelim: I sucked during the Regular Season, with a slight winning % picking ALL games in a Pool. I bet some too, of course.

 

However

 

Playoffs? I am 8-2 ATS in a Pool and again, I bet as well. This pool is very difficult because you get +15 for picking the correct team ATS AND -1 fir every point, you’re off the total score.

 

I am up 27 points on my nearest competitor, so almost 2 games, with just 3 to go. 1st. Prize is $1750.
 

SPOILER ALERT:

 

I am 100% taking the Bills +3 & the Pack -4.

Looong ago I bet the Bills to win the SB and have a Parlay this weekend- as above.

 

gL2A & GO BILLS!

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Interesting ; I figured the initial line was based on the expectation that Mahomes plays. That they kinda baked that in. It seemed the prevailing opinion was Mahomes walked off the field and the injury wasn’t likely to keep him out. I’d be surprised if this line was based on Henne starting at QB. Just my opinion , of course. I’m not much of a gambler, so what do I know ? 

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7 hours ago, Mango said:

This game is a Vegas nightmare. I was looking around today, I’ve seen everything from Buffalo -2.5 to +3 and everything in between. You can basically play whatever spread you want, just need to pick the right bookie. 

Bet both sides and cheer for a close game. 

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8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Ya think?

 

 

It's just a reminder that if you like the Bills the spread will be even more enticing if you wait.

 

Take the last Miami game for example. Vegas was convinced the Bills would rest players and favored the Fins by 3. I took the moneyline early. 

 

By game time the line moved to Miami -4.5 and the Bills moneyline went from +108 to +135. So I hit that again. You all know how things turned out.

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On 1/19/2021 at 2:51 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

An old saying.. Don't bet money for or against your own team. to much emotional attachment

 I really have no problem betting against Buffalo. But only if the other team is an underdog or if it's a pick em. I'll bet the other team to win outright. I'm happy to lose $$ and see the Bills win. But if they lose, I wake up with extra cash. It's really a win/win. In a way, it kind of feels like I'm paying for a W 😆, which I'm sure many of us would do.

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On 1/19/2021 at 2:51 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

An old saying.. Don't bet money for or against your own team. to much emotional attachment

 

Stupid saying. Nothing wrong with betting on your own team.  The Bills bought me a new laptop this year.  They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10.  For me personally 7-1 ATS.   Go Bills. 

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Betting the Bills this year helped pay the Bills-  we crushed vs spread on a weekly basis.  
 

Also have them at +4000 to win the SB.  Mad that I didn’t bet more than my usually $100. I should hedge, but I won’t.

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Betting the Bills this year helped pay the Bills-  we crushed vs spread on a weekly basis.  
 

Also have them at +4000 to win the SB.  Mad that I didn’t bet more than my usually $100. I should hedge, but I won’t.

 

Wow. I got them at 17-1 for $100.  You must have been a believer in this team pretty early on.  

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37 minutes ago, BITE ME said:

 

Wow. I got them at 17-1 for $100.  You must have been a believer in this team pretty early on.  

Yeah, I placed the bet Jan 29th 2020.  I figured we’d have an aggressive offseason and wanted to get in on the action before the line plummeted. 

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On 1/19/2021 at 12:13 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Can someone explain this sugar high josh thing to me lol dude missed an open bomb down the field in swirling winds...hes not overthrowing open guys cuz hes too amped up

Josh is a young raw QB seasoning every game.  The sugar high is in response to his hyped up play at critical high pressure times.  Several examples of this;  his first playoff game against Houston - the fumble and the lateral.  This year in playoffs his first pass sailed over J Brown - JA looked amped.  Later in both playoff games he has fumbled in the 4th quarter.  The Bills luckily recovered but nonetheless he has got to get more aware of risk/reward and closing out the game.

 

I'm hoping this game will actually have a little less internal pressure on him, as it does for many of us.  And we can see the end of regular season Josh letting loose.  The internal pressure in these situations is certainly a factor.  And it is something Josh  can improve on - generally with experience.

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On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2021 at 8:27 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

The line will move even more toward KC if Mahomes is cleared.

The line already has Mahomes playing at -3, what you're not seeing is the money coming in on KC once its made known that hes a full go. This line will go to KC-4 by tomorrow and I will hammer the Bills...

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2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I saw a line where I would risk 55 to win 77 on the Bills with no points. 

 

Is this a good line?

That’s the current money line offered pretty much everywhere.   Bills +140

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I like to look at other data....

 

for the last 20 conference Championships (2000 season to 2019 season)

 

Home team wins 67.5% of the time, Away team 32.5%

 

Winner was split, one home, one away, 9 out of the 20 years, Surprisingly all were between 2000-2011

 

Both home teams won 9 of the 20 years. 

 

Both Away teams only won twice, in 2012 and 2018. 

 

 

Edited by Just Jack
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Just now, Just Jack said:

I like to look at other data....

 

for the last 20 conference Championships

 

Home team wins 67.5% of the time, Away team 32.5%

 

Winner was split, one home, one away, 9 out of the 20 years, Surprisingly all were between 2000-2011

 

Both home teams won 9 of the 20 years. 

 

Both Away teams only won twice, in 2012 and 2018. 

 

 

 

I guess it's harder this year to apply the data no? Crowd noise / half empty stadiums etc...

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