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Week 15 MNF: Steelers at Cincy


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7 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

Sorry the Titans game doesn't actually matter next week. 

 

 

BIlls will clinch #2 with win and:

Steelers loss and Browns win  (as long as the Browns and Steelers don't tie in the last game)

or

Steelers loss and Titans loss

It would be ideal if we could go into week 17 having the number two seed locked up. Woohoo!!!

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3 minutes ago, Billl said:

So now do you want Pittsburgh to keep losing so you get the 2 seed or root for them to win out in the slim hope of getting the 1 seed via a three way tiebreaker?


If you think the Chiefs are dropping two in a row at Arrowhead to the Falcons and Chargers, knock yourself out.

Edited by Beast
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1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

We dont need Pitt to lose...we just need to win.  We control 2 seed now.  1 seed is pretty unlikely.  But we could be home for entire playoffs if the dominoes fall the right way

We need them to lose if we want to clinch it next week. 

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Just now, billsherd said:

If everything remains as is we play Ravens?

 

Believe it or not so many different scenerios are in place. Right now the Bills would play the Dolphins. If any team besides the Steelers and Titans lose the Ravens have a chance to take their spot. The Browns, Dolphins and Colts need to win out

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Just now, Warcodered said:

Chiefs have to lose out and Steelers have to win out....and we have to win out.

 

I only think one of those things has a decent chance of happening.

Nope.   We can't get the number 1 seed with the Chiefs beating the Saints.  They have strength of victory tie breaker.  Best we can do is 2.  And I believe with today's loss, the Chiefs have sewn up the number 1 seed.  They hold tie breakers in both two and 3-way ties at 13-3.

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2 minutes ago, billsherd said:

If everything remains as is we play Ravens?

It can change with a lot of things. For example, (just a simulation, no guarantees) if you do the playoff machine and just have it auto pick by win %, the Ravens are the 5th seed.

#2 Bills playing Colts

 

However that is based on the Steelers winning against the Colts and Browns too. I dont know if Pitt wins again this season.

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6 minutes ago, peterlaw said:

You would need the Steelers to win out to finish 13-3 also.  Our head to head with KC is disregarded and it goes on Strength of Victory. We need a lot of help.

We can't get there.  And with today's loss neither can Pitt.  Chiefs are the 1 seed.

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2 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

 

Believe it or not so many different scenerios are in place. Right now the Bills would play the Dolphins. If any team besides the Steelers and Titans lose the Ravens have a chance to take their spot. The Browns, Dolphins and Colts need to win out


playing with the simulation, odds are we likely play the dolphins or ravens. If we drop our last 2, we could end up playing Tennessee.  

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1 minute ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

 

Because... it's not locked up. Certainly, the Bills need to beat the Cheatriots AND have Pitt lose next week, plus the Pack beating Tennessee, then... it's secured. 

Basically by Sunday night, we will know what we are playing for on Monday.

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2 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

 

 

Just because it is unlikely the game will result in a tie in week 17. Cleveland would automatically lose home field if they tie so they would have to go for it on 4th down... either converting along the way or giving the Steelers good field position.

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Billl said:

So now do you want Pittsburgh to keep losing so you get the 2 seed or root for them to win out in the slim hope of getting the 1 seed via a three way tiebreaker?


You root for them to hold onto the #3 seed so the Bills line up with them instead of the Titans for the Division round.

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4 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

 

Because... it's not locked up. Certainly, the Bills need to beat the Cheatriots AND have Pitt lose next week, plus the Pack beating Tennessee, then... it's secured. 

You are correct.  We could finish as low as the 4th seed if Pitt and Titans win out and we finish 12-4.

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5 minutes ago, Process said:

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

 

Yes because Cleveland and Pittsburgh play each other. One wins and then no matter who wins it becomes a 3 way tie breaker which the Bills win due to Conference Record

 

Edit: except for Pittsburgh.... all those AFC teams are 4-0 against the opposite division (if the Titans beat the Packers next week). That one loss to Arizona isn't going to hurt the Bills much

Edited by dma0034
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4 minutes ago, Process said:

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

Yes because of confernece record

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4 minutes ago, Process said:

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

I think that is correct but the ESPN playoff machine thingy can probably confirm.

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2 minutes ago, The Plastic Cup said:


You root for them to hold onto the #3 seed so the Bills line up with them instead of the Titans for the Division round.

 

Don't forget, both PIT & CLE hold tiebreaker over TEN (by virtue of them both beating the Titans).

 

Assuming the Browns take care of business against the Jets, that means PIT OR CLE will finish 12-4 (since CLE and PIT play Week 17 and they don't tie) and will finish ahead of TEN.

 

Even if TEN finishes 12-4, I don't think they can jump over whoever the AFC North Champ is. 

 

What happens if BUF, PIT/CLE & TEN all finish 12-4? Bills just gotta take care of business.

 

GB/TEN & IND/PIT are gonna be epic games.

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The most ideal scenario, to me is the Dolphins winning out and taking the 7 seed and playing us. in the first week of playoffs. Would rather see them than any of the other teams, but I'll just wait and see how it plays out. The AFC is tougher than I thought it was going to be. 

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8 minutes ago, Process said:

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

In any situation that we are tied at 12-4 with 2 or more teams we are the #2 seed. 

So if the Steelers and Browns are both 11-4 and going into week 17 we are in good shape there, because one of those teams will have to finish 12-4 with exception of a tie. The possible tie in week 17 between them is the only reason we can’t clinch next week with a Bills win and Pitt loss. 

Edited by JGMcD2
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18 minutes ago, Process said:

Colts beat steelers, browns win, bills win, titans win

 

Bills 12-3

Steelers 11-4

Titans 11-4

Colts 11-4

Browns 11-4

 

Titans hold the tie breaker over us. Do we clinch in this situation because with a loss vs the dolphins, we are guaranteed a three way tie for #2 (assuming no tie between steelers and browns), and we win a three way tie breaker??

 

 

Yes.  I believe that is correct.  And depending on what Miami does in Vegas, we could end up playing either Ravens, Dolphins or Browns.  Actually there is also a scenario we could play the Titans if they lose out and finish with the 7th seed.  Lots can still happen in the 2nd to 7th seeding.

Edited by jkeerie
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8 minutes ago, letsgoteam said:

It can change with a lot of things. For example, (just a simulation, no guarantees) if you do the playoff machine and just have it auto pick by win %, the Ravens are the 5th seed.

#2 Bills playing Colts

 

However that is based on the Steelers winning against the Colts and Browns too. I dont know if Pitt wins again this season.

So playing some more with it, keep the winning %. Only change Pitt losing out. Then it comes down to this in a weird way.

 

Week 17:

Bills/Dolphins: 

Bills has already clinched #2.

 

Miami if they win they are in the playoffs against Buffalo

Lose and the Bills play Baltimore.

 

So if this all comes fruition, the Bills basically get to choose who they play first of the playoffs. Because the Bills could "rest" anyone and basically game it to where Miami wins. Unless of the course the Dolphins get a Billsy (lol) loss to the Bills 3rd stringers.

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