The Unthinkable: #1 Seed, Home Field thru Playoffs?

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

OK, I'm going to start this thread the right way, using the correct phrasing: Here me out!

 

Scenario: The Bills win out and the Steelers falter just enough to put us above them.  

 

The Bills win on Sunday (10-3) and the Steelers fall to 11-2.

Browns will beat the Steelers week 17, dropping them to 13-3. (**They could also lose to the Colts week 16). Bills have the tie-breaker over the Steelers.

 

The only problem obtaining the #1 seed, first-round bye and home field advantage is the Chiefs. I can see a loss to the Dolphins (if Fitz plays!) and a loss to the Saints. But, then they have the Falcons and Chargers at home to finish the season out. They probably finish 13-3 and they would have the tie-breaker over us!

 

I think we end-up the #2 seed. 

[ALLEN1QB]

How nice would a win against Arizona have been gezzzz.

[Hampton Josh fan]

1 seed gets the only bye. That's huge, but home field is not that important this year. Especially because the Bills are a fast track nightmare for teams to deal with because Josh is prolific in good conditions. In Buffalo, January games call for running the and defending the run. Both of those are not our strengths. 

[RichRiderBills]

Beat Pitt next weekend and we can talk #2 ...but I still think thats tough. 

[Beast]

Just now, Hampton Josh fan said:

1 seed gets the only bye. That's huge, but home field is not that important this year. Especially because the Bills are a fast track nightmare for teams to deal with because Josh is prolific in good conditions. In Buffalo, January games call for running the and defending the run. Both of those are not our strengths. 

This isn’t the 70’s or even 30 years ago. The Bills will be able to throw the ball in January. In the elements.

 

It’s who they are and the bad Bills weather is more a myth than a reality.

[buffalo2218]

1 minute ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

1 seed gets the only bye. That's huge, but home field is not that important this year. Especially because the Bills are a fast track nightmare for teams to deal with because Josh is prolific in good conditions. In Buffalo, January games call for running the and defending the run. Both of those are not our strengths. 

For this reason alone, there's no way the Pegulas don't build a dome. Allen hasn't fared well against the elements and we've all seen how well Allen plays with no elements involved. They're gonna provide this team with any advantage they can, especially for a franchise QB that's about to get seriously paid

[SCBills]

Home field is what it is without fans, but avoiding KC until the AFCCG is worth getting that 2 seed.

[No_Matter_What]

10 minutes ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

OK, I'm going to start this thread the right way, using the correct phrasing: Here me out!

 

Scenario: The Bills win out and the Steelers falter just enough to put us above them.  

 

The Bills win on Sunday (10-3) and the Steelers fall to 11-2.

Browns will beat the Steelers week 17, dropping them to 13-3. (**They could also lose to the Colts week 16). Bills have the tie-breaker over the Steelers.

 

The only problem obtaining the #1 seed, first-round bye and home field advantage is the Chiefs. I can see a loss to the Dolphins (if Fitz plays!) and a loss to the Saints. But, then they have the Falcons and Chargers at home to finish the season out. They probably finish 13-3 and they would have the tie-breaker over us!

 

I think we end-up the #2 seed. 

Bolded is irrelevant in most likely scenario the IF both Chiefs and us are 13-3 and we are talking No.1 seed, then also Steelers are 13-3 and there is a 3way tie. If this happens, we get No.1.

 

The only way that Chiefs tiebreaker plays role is if Steelers end up 12-4 or worse.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

8 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

How nice would a win against Arizona have been gezzzz.

Its would've been a huge win but Tre's feet got stuck in cement or he has a 22 inch vert.

[dma0034]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Home field is what it is without fans, but avoiding KC until the AFCCG is worth getting that 2 seed.

 

You can do that with the 2 or 3 seed

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If Chiefs, Steelers, and Bills are 13-3, Chiefs lose to the Dolphins and Saints, Steelers lose to the Colts then the Bills get #1 seed in espn playoff machine. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Hampton Josh fan]

2 minutes ago, Beast said:

This isn’t the 70’s or even 30 years ago. The Bills will be able to throw the ball in January. In the elements.

 

It’s who they are and the bad Bills weather is more a myth than a reality.

How did they look in Buffalo against KC, NE, Chargers as opposed to the Niners, Miami, Arizona . I think our best chance is in good weather ,especially with no fans.

[dma0034]

If the Bills win out they'll need a couple things to happen. They'll need the Steelers to lose 1 more game. They'll also need the Chiefs to lose 2 and all three teams finish at 13-3. Chiefs do get the Saints who could beat them. They also have the Falcons, Dolphins and Chargers. Maybe one of them knock them out too. I don't see it as realistic. The 2 seed though would be nice. 2 home games!

[Hampton Josh fan]

6 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

For this reason alone, there's no way the Pegulas don't build a dome. Allen hasn't fared well against the elements and we've all seen how well Allen plays with no elements involved. They're gonna provide this team with any advantage they can, especially for a franchise QB that's about to get seriously paid

Great take, but will the community help. These guys, as wealthy as they are need taxpayer help. 

[buffalo2218]

Just now, Hampton Josh fan said:

Great take, but will the community help. These guys, as wealthy as they are need taxpayer help. 

Here's the other advantage no one''s apparently thought about. With a dome, can you imagine how loud that stadium would be? Rich Stadium and the Ralph were bad enough, but to contain that kind of noise in a dome? No one would want to play us

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Here's the other advantage no one''s apparently thought about. With a dome, can you imagine how loud that stadium would be? Rich Stadium and the Ralph were bad enough, but to contain that kind of noise in a dome? No one would want to play us

I want a dome. Our weather is just different. GB, Pittsburgh, and others get cold and snow but we get that wind to go along with it. I want a dome. We'll still have the noise factor. 

[DE Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Here's the other advantage no one''s apparently thought about. With a dome, can you imagine how loud that stadium would be? Rich Stadium and the Ralph were bad enough, but to contain that kind of noise in a dome? No one would want to play us

Will never happen. Just no justification to get a decent return in investment. Plus Buffalo is a small market and would not be able to afford the subsidies that Pegula would ask for in addition to the fan based not putting up with the exorbitant  PSL and ticket prices. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Not gonna happen.

[buffalo2218]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I want a dome. Our weather is just different. GB, Pittsburgh, and others get cold and snow but we get that wind to go along with it. I want a dome. We'll still have the noise factor. 

The noise factor would be seriously amplified with a dome

 

 

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

1 seed gets the only bye. That's huge, but home field is not that important this year. Especially because the Bills are a fast track nightmare for teams to deal with because Josh is prolific in good conditions. In Buffalo, January games call for running the and defending the run. Both of those are not our strengths. 

 

It seems like we're starting to defend the run pretty well, no?

 

On offense, I agree... I'd much rather be throwing all game - and Josh Allen is built to throw in the elements, but it hasn't translated...yet.  

 

That being said, in a Playoff Game, if we need to run more, I think we see a lot more designed Allen runs than we have in the regular season. 

[Hampton Josh fan]

16 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Here's the other advantage no one''s apparently thought about. With a dome, can you imagine how loud that stadium would be? Rich Stadium and the Ralph were bad enough, but to contain that kind of noise in a dome? No one would want to play us

Love to see that in the Josh era.

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

It seems like we're starting to defend the run pretty well, no?

 

On offense, I agree... I'd much rather be throwing all game - and Josh Allen is built to throw in the elements, but it hasn't translated...yet.  

 

That being said, in a Playoff Game, if we need to run more, I think we see a lot more designed Allen runs than we have in the regular season. 

Great in theory, but Josh running is scary especially with some of these defensive coaches trying to take him off the field. 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Love to see that in the Josh era.

Great in theory, but Josh running is scary especially with some of these defensive coaches trying to take him off the field. 

 

Yea, I certainly don't want him designed running in the regular season, but the Playoffs are a different animal - If Josh can gash a team in a bad weather game by running, i'm good running him.  

[ogham26]

the #2 seed is attainable.  beat the steelers win out and have them drop another game is very realistic

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

AFC as per PlayoffStatus.com

AFC Playoff Standings

		Record			Divisional Winners				Wildcard			No POs
Team	Div	W	L	T	1*	2**	3**	4**	5	6	7	8
Chiefs	West	11	1	0	55%	44%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^
Steelers	North	11	1	0	43%	37%	12%	1%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
Bills	East	9	3	0	2%	14%	43%	31%	1%	2%	3%	3%
Titans	South	8	4	0	<1%	<1%	31%	36%	1%	9%	12%	11%
Browns	North	9	3	0	<1%	4%	2%	<1%	64%	15%	9%	6%
Dolphins	East	8	4	0	<1%	<1%	5%	3%	5%	13%	18%	56%
Colts	South	8	4	0	<1%	<1%	5%	28%	2%	14%	15%	36%
Raiders	West	7	5	0	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	12%	32%	18%	38%
Ravens	North	6	5	0	X	X	X	X	9%	13%	20%	59%
Patriots	East	6	6	0	X	X	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	6%	91%
Broncos	West	4	8	0	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	>99%
Texans	South	4	8	0	X	X	X	<1%	X	X	<1%	>99%
Chargers	West	3	9	0	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Bengals	North	2	9	1	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Jaguars	South	1	11	0	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
Jets	East	0	12	0	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%

• Notes
• ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
• X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
• Table Sorting Method
• *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
• ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Hampton Josh fan]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

Yea, I certainly don't want him designed running in the regular season, but the Playoffs are a different animal - If Josh can gash a team in a bad weather game by running, i'm good running him.  

You're probably right. His competitiveness kicks in and besides he's starting to slide instead of taking on tacklers. He'll do what it takes to win.

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, buffalo2218 said:

For this reason alone, there's no way the Pegulas don't build a dome. Allen hasn't fared well against the elements and we've all seen how well Allen plays with no elements involved. They're gonna provide this team with any advantage they can, especially for a franchise QB that's about to get seriously paid

 

By the time that dome is built I doubt there will be much left on the JA time clock......maybe hopefully but most likely not.

[Ben]

The fact that its mid December and the number 1 seed is still possible after years of "in the hunt" is pretty sweet.

 

[wjag]

After watching the last three Bills games, I would prefer they play in warm, sunny locales.  Playing in Buffalo with the fans, K-Gun and Thermal running were one thing.  Playing four wide in the rain, sleet WIND, and snow, not so much.  With no fans in the stadium, WIND would be a great equalizer.

[TheFunPolice]

Pegula wants an open air stadium. He's said it a few times.

 

I think Pittsburgh is the model. Unless it's an actual blizzard, these guys can throw and catch in the weather. 

 

Wind is a bigger problem than snow. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by TheFunPolice

[LabattBlue]

Avoiding KC until the AFC Championship game is much more important than playing at home this year.  No fans = little to no home field advantage.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

3 hours ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

1 seed gets the only bye. That's huge, but home field is not that important this year. Especially because the Bills are a fast track nightmare for teams to deal with because Josh is prolific in good conditions. In Buffalo, January games call for running the and defending the run. Both of those are not our strengths. 

Everyone seems to think the 2 seed means nothing but obviously it still does because it guarantees two home games if you win the first. Same as always except you have to play the first week as well

[Hampton Josh fan]

12 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Everyone seems to think the 2 seed means nothing but obviously it still does because it guarantees two home games if you win the first. Same as always except you have to play the first week as well

Again, I think with no fans, it's better for us if it's a fast track. If we win the 1st game, naturally playing at home would be beneficial if it's against a cold weather team. If it's against Indy, Vegas, Tenn, I think we benefit from better weather. 

[Jpsredemption]

How about a vaccine and fans for the home playoff game!!!!!! ... sorry I’m still dreaming. 

[Chuck Wagon]

"The only problem is the Chiefs"

 

Well yes, that's kind of the point.  

[machine gun kelly]

I know it’s probably unspeakable, but for the first time, I am dreaming of 13-3.  As the OP said, and don’t worry, no one should flame you, nor is it expected it happens, but Pitt. Has flaws.  They can’t run to save their life.  Advantage Bills.  They rely on Ben throwing 50 times a game to get to 300 yards ( with our secondary and now that Milano, Edmunds, and Klein are healthy, adv. Bills). James Connor may come back off Covid, but how much rhythm will he be.  Adv. Bills.  Allen is playing lights out and even without Brown, we have Diggs, Beasley, and Davis playing with incredible rhythm with Allen, adv. Bills.  I think we might finally have our line with Dawkins, Boettger, Morse, Feliciano, and Williams (hell or run game).

 

I thought all year we can’t beat the Steelers (sorry Virgil as you have been the one with the most confidence in this team and a rock for us), but I’m getting behind it now.  Not a lock, but I see enough to believe.  The games after that are all winnable.  I know we can conceivably give the Steelers a second loss, but don’t know if we can get to three losses for bothering the Steelers and the Chiefs.  
 

I DONT CARE!  What I’m selling like the OP is hope.  No more we’re second tier.  Screw the idiots who analyze and want to not pick this team.  The Chiefs, Bills, and Steelers are the best AFC teams in this conference, with maybe the Browns and Colts after us. 

[ColoradoBills]

Next Sunday night will tell if the Bills have a chance at this or not.

I would like to see both the Steelers and the Chiefs having to play tough meaningful games in Week #17!

[dave mcbride]

KC isn't going to lose to either Atlanta or the Chargers. Case closed.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Everyone seems to think the 2 seed means nothing but obviously it still does because it guarantees two home games if you win the first. Same as always except you have to play the first week as well

You also avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible and give one of these unpredictable teams like the browns or titans a chance to beat them. I think im more worried about our pats game than the steelers...pats aren't nearly as good of a team on paper but we don't match up well

[RiotAct]

4 hours ago, DE Bills Fan said:

Will never happen. Just no justification to get a decent return in investment. Plus Buffalo is a small market and would not be able to afford the subsidies that Pegula would ask for in addition to the fan based not putting up with the exorbitant  PSL and ticket prices. 

agreed.  Plus, no fans for the foreseeable future at games.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

KC isn't going to lose to either Atlanta or the Chargers. Case closed.

I think the op mentioned kc losing to dolphins/saints although a dolphins win over kc will be pretty scary for us going into our night game with the steelers 🤣