San Fran appears to be poor at pass protecting

[Big Turk]

Mullens only has an average of 2.2 seconds of pocket time before he faces pressure or throws the ball, and since he is highest in the NFL at pressure percentage at 30%, it appears it is the former more often than the latter. 

 

In fact in only 5 games started, with 2 other games played, Mullens has been hit 36 times, which is 5 more times than Allen has in 11 full games. Mullens is also not much of a threat to leave the pocket as he only has 1 scramble on the season, meaning if the Bills can crash the pocket, Mullens will be in trouble.

 

Advanced Metrics also supports this as San Fran has a pass block win rate of only 53% which is 20th in the NFL. Comparatively, the Bills are 4th at 64%

[ndirish1978]

This is interesting, thanks

[Success]

Great info. I'd be surprised if Mullens beat us - if we lose, it will be more self-inflicted, imo.

 

This should be a solid win, though.  Our defense has continued to improve.  Klein's play has been such a difference-maker, and now Milano is coming back....

 

[DuckyBoys]

thats greatly skewed by all the quick passing they do in that system  They dont throw the ball downfield  Its a lot get the snap and toss it out to wr/rb behind or near the los

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, DuckyBoys said:

thats greatly skewed by all the quick passing they do in that system  They dont throw the ball downfield  Its a lot get the snap and toss it out to wr/rb behind or near the los

 

The pocket time might be but the pressure rate isn't.

[Penfield45]

We need mcd to design those blitz packages he’s so good at 

 

milano and Edmunds in coverage while Klein blitzes all night 

[RichRiderBills]

5 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

thats greatly skewed by all the quick passing they do in that system  They dont throw the ball downfield  Its a lot get the snap and toss it out to wr/rb behind or near the los

 

I hear what you are saying but, I dont think so. Niners are 20th in sacks allowed. 

[YattaOkasan]

I think their interior is weak (3rd string center I think).  I think Ed should be able to continue to push the pocket which causes others to clean up.  If we can get them to 3rd and 7+ I think we will get off the field at a really high rate.

[BuffaloMatt]

Hmmmmm. . . . DL needs to eat!

[Just Joshin']

Seems like a good week to blitz - both run and pass.  Put the pressure on Mullens and don't let the run game get going.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

I hear what you are saying but, I dont think so. Niners are 20th in sacks allowed. 

 

This hides the fact that they are only 20th because they don't pass as much as many teams do.  In terms of Adjusted Sack Rate they are 2nd worst in the NFL at 9.1%...only Tennessee is worse at 9.6%

[Punching Bag]

30 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Mullens only has an average of 2.2 seconds of pocket time before he faces pressure or throws the ball, and since he is highest in the NFL at pressure percentage at 30%, it appears it is the former more often than the latter. 

 

In fact in only 5 games started, with 2 other games played, Mullens has been hit 36 times, which is 5 more times than Allen has in 11 full games. Mullens is also not much of a threat to leave the pocket as he only has 1 scramble on the season, meaning if the Bills can crash the pocket, Mullens will be in trouble.

 

Advanced Metrics also supports this as San Fran has a pass block win rate of only 53% which is 20th in the NFL. Comparatively, the Bills are 4th at 64%

 

Allen hits back which probably reduces amount players want to hit him.  Better to just keep pressure on him and have him throw it away.

[RichRiderBills]

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think their interior is weak (3rd string center I think).  I think Ed should be able to continue to push the pocket which causes others to clean up.  If we can get them to 3rd and 7+ I think we will get off the field at a really high rate.

 

I totally agree. Get them in 3rd and long. This is why its so hard to win by running in today's NFL. They have to put together long drives, but not us. Then you get an offense that can strike quick like Buff, and they can get in trouble. 

 

49ers have a good D but they too, have been blown out and scored on by good offenses. Hell they gave up 25 to the Eagles. Not like this is the steel curtain or anything. 

 

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

Seems like a good week to blitz - both run and pass.  Put the pressure on Mullens and don't let the run game get going.

 

Agreed...the 49ers are not great at running the ball either, and in fact in advanced metrics, they are dead last in the NFL in some categories...in either case, they average under 8 yards per game more in rushing yards than the Bills do with only slightly more than 112 yards a game.

 

In Adjusted Line Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.44(Bills 23rd at 3.92)

In RB Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.51(Bills are surprisingly 2nd at 4.68 only to TB's 4.86)

In Power Success Rate, the 49ers are 14th at 67%(Bills are 10th at 71%---much better than 30th last year)

In Open Field Yards(Yards the RB gets past 10 yards divided by # of RB carries), the 49ers are 26th at 0.57(Bills are 2nd at 1.18 only to TB 1.40)

In 2nd Level Yards(Yards the RB gets between 5-10 yards divided b y # of RB Carries), the 49ers are 22nd at 1.05(Bills are 2nd at 1.28 only to ATL 1.33)

In Stuff Rate, the 49ers are 31st at 25.7% and only percentage points better than CLE who is dead last with the same percentage(Bills 17th at 21.0%)

 

So basically, their RBs have not been very good breaking long runs in general and they get stuffed more than 1 out of every 4 carries in the backfield. Their offensive line also basically has not been good at run blocking and opening holes apparently either.

[Kwai San]

Bills D is going to have to get pressure and be ready for the quick outs....might be the week they FINALLY get a pick six!

 

GO BILLS!!!!

[Coffeesforclosers]

I've got the feeling that the D we're seeing now is what McD and Frazier would have installed in a normal off-season.  Shortened training time and Covid crap meant they had to water things down and rehash last year's schemes.  

[Buffalo Junction]

10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Agreed...the 49ers are not great at running the ball either, and in fact in advanced metrics, they are dead last in the NFL in some categories...in either case, they average under 8 yards per game more in rushing yards than the Bills do with only slightly more than 112 yards a game.

 

In Adjusted Line Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.44(Bills 23rd at 3.92)

In RB Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.51(Bills are surprisingly 2nd at 4.68 only to TB's 4.86)

In Power Success Rate, the 49ers are 14th at 67%(Bills are 10th at 71%---much better than 30th last year)

In Open Field Yards(Yards the RB gets past 10 yards divided by # of RB carries), the 49ers are 26th at 0.57(Bills are 2nd at 1.18 only to TB 1.40)

In 2nd Level Yards(Yards the RB gets between 5-10 yards divided b y # of RB Carries), the 49ers are 22nd at 1.05(Bills are 2nd at 1.28 only to ATL 1.33)

In Stuff Rate, the 49ers are 31st at 25.7% and only percentage points better than CLE who is dead last with the same percentage(Bills 17th at 21.0%)

 

So basically, their RBs have not been very good breaking long runs in general and they get stuffed more than 1 out of every 4 carries in the backfield. Their offensive line also basically has not been good at run blocking and opening holes apparently either.

I’m not sure all the stats and metrics apply to the 49ers due to all of the injuries and Covid stuff. Their roster has fluctuated substantially over the season. They’ve gotten healthier over the past few weeks, and may very well outperform those figures down the stretch. 

[Big Turk]

Just now, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m not sure all the stats and metrics apply to the 49ers due to all of the injuries and Covid stuff. Their roster has fluctuated substantially over the season. They’ve gotten healthier over the past few weeks, and may very well outperform those figures down the stretch. 

 

Maybe, but their pass protection has been equally as bad if not worse...

[HOUSE]

The bag of donuts should have 3 sacks

 

 

 

.

Edited December 5, 2020 by HOUSE

[NickelCity]

I'm always surprised that "San Fran" is what folks from 49 states call SF. 

 

Regardless, I'm feeling like we finally put it all together and squash the 9ers.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Mullens only has an average of 2.2 seconds of pocket time before he faces pressure or throws the ball, and since he is highest in the NFL at pressure percentage at 30%, it appears it is the former more often than the latter. 

 

In fact in only 5 games started, with 2 other games played, Mullens has been hit 36 times, which is 5 more times than Allen has in 11 full games. Mullens is also not much of a threat to leave the pocket as he only has 1 scramble on the season, meaning if the Bills can crash the pocket, Mullens will be in trouble.

 

Advanced Metrics also supports this as San Fran has a pass block win rate of only 53% which is 20th in the NFL. Comparatively, the Bills are 4th at 64%

yeah I’m think there isn’t a lot of concern  they beat you over the top.  It’s A lot of underneath Stuff And attacking the edges. 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’m not sure all the stats and metrics apply to the 49ers due to all of the injuries and Covid stuff. Their roster has fluctuated substantially over the season. They’ve gotten healthier over the past few weeks, and may very well outperform those figures down the stretch. 

 

Maybe, but the 800 pound gorilla in the room is the oline. They dont have the dogs there this year, especially on the right side. I dont think they will get back to that same level with this oline. 

[JaBu]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

I'm always surprised that "San Fran" is what folks from 49 states call SF. 

 

 

Well they could be calling it the dreaded "Frisco"  🤣

[Captain_Quint]

I think the key to this game is getting the early lead. Make them depend on passing to try and keep pace and not their run game, which is what they want to do. 

[BuffaloMatt]

11 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

I think the key to this game is getting the early lead. Make them depend on passing to try and keep pace and not their run game, which is what they want to do. 

So right. Make them one dimensional!

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Maybe, but their pass protection has been equally as bad if not worse...

It’s been bad. There’s no debating that. I’m not exactly sure how much the injuries to other positions have played a part in their Oline doing so poorly. However, I’d imagine that Mullens is substantially worse than JG at setting protections, and the skill position injuries/Covid (mainly Kittle) have allowed defenses to load the box. Not the Bills problem, but if they squeak into the playoffs and get both Kittle and JG back they could make a little noise. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Junction said:

It’s been bad. There’s no debating that. I’m not exactly sure how much the injuries to other positions have played a part in their Oline doing so poorly. However, I’d imagine that Mullens is substantially worse than JG at setting protections, and the skill position injuries/Covid (mainly Kittle) have allowed defenses to load the box. Not the Bills problem, but if they squeak into the playoffs and get both Kittle and JG back they could make a little noise. 

 

Jimmy G isn't much of an upgrade at this point. He has been bad.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Maybe, but the 800 pound gorilla in the room is the oline. They dont have the dogs there this year, especially on the right side. I dont think they will get back to that same level with this oline. 

No arguing that McGlinchey and whomever they have at RG have been awful. I don’t see their pass blocking improving much individually. I do think SF will have more success running the ball with Kittle back though. Dude doesn’t get enough credit for how good he is at hooking edge rushers. 

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Jimmy G isn't much of an upgrade at this point. He has been bad.

I don’t think he’s good. Just that he’s substantially better than Mullens at setting protections. 🤷‍♂️ 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

The bag of donuts will have 3 sacks

I like you House......laugh damn near every time I read one of your posts

[CaptnCoke11]

Load the box and make him Mullens beat you.  Pretty simple game plan front end defense.  

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

I think the key to this game is getting the early lead. Make them depend on passing to try and keep pace and not their run game, which is what they want to do. 

 

Bills have been very good at that all year. They are one of the highest scoring teams in the 1st quarter and 2nd only to the Ravens in holding opponents to an average of 9.5 points in the first half.

[billspro]

I think the dline should take over this game. San Fran might hang around for 3 quarters because they have a good defence but I think we pull away in the 4th. 

[NickelCity]

6 hours ago, jabu said:

 

Well they could be calling it the dreaded "Frisco"  🤣

 

Yeah, but no one has said that in decades! San Fran is the new "Frisco," lol.

 

Regardless, I'm just thrilled that the Bills are a real NFL franchise again. It's December and we're fending off competition for the division title!

[JohnNord]

8 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

thats greatly skewed by all the quick passing they do in that system  They dont throw the ball downfield  Its a lot get the snap and toss it out to wr/rb behind or near the los

Both could be true or one could be the result of another.  Pass protection is bad, so the QB’s is forced to throw a lot of blitz beaters and screens quick

[CSBill]

14 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

This hides the fact that they are only 20th because they don't pass as much as many teams do.  In terms of Adjusted Sack Rate they are 2nd worst in the NFL at 9.1%...only Tennessee is worse at 9.6%

 

Interesting. I would guess much of this can ae attested to the fact that Mullens does not have a strong arm. So, play them tight and take away the quick hitters and force him to wait for the down field things to develop. In such cases, the receiver needs to be wide open because of the lack of arm strength, and that scenario needs time to develop. All that adds to more opportunity to apply pressure. This is clearly a week to get after the QB!

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Agreed...the 49ers are not great at running the ball either, and in fact in advanced metrics, they are dead last in the NFL in some categories...in either case, they average under 8 yards per game more in rushing yards than the Bills do with only slightly more than 112 yards a game.

 

In Adjusted Line Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.44(Bills 23rd at 3.92)

In RB Yards, the 49ers rank dead last at 3.51(Bills are surprisingly 2nd at 4.68 only to TB's 4.86)

In Power Success Rate, the 49ers are 14th at 67%(Bills are 10th at 71%---much better than 30th last year)

In Open Field Yards(Yards the RB gets past 10 yards divided by # of RB carries), the 49ers are 26th at 0.57(Bills are 2nd at 1.18 only to TB 1.40)

In 2nd Level Yards(Yards the RB gets between 5-10 yards divided b y # of RB Carries), the 49ers are 22nd at 1.05(Bills are 2nd at 1.28 only to ATL 1.33)

In Stuff Rate, the 49ers are 31st at 25.7% and only percentage points better than CLE who is dead last with the same percentage(Bills 17th at 21.0%)

 

So basically, their RBs have not been very good breaking long runs in general and they get stuffed more than 1 out of every 4 carries in the backfield. Their offensive line also basically has not been good at run blocking and opening holes apparently either.

 

Wow! That's some deep dive analytics right there. Good work Matter.

 

A question: All things considered (in the above stats) it looks like the Bills have a pretty good run game--at least from their backs. Where does the breakdown come? When we assert "the Bills need to improve the run game," where? Is the low per game average skewed? Is it not really the best measure, or at least not a complete measure?

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

This hides the fact that they are only 20th because they don't pass as much as many teams do.  In terms of Adjusted Sack Rate they are 2nd worst in the NFL at 9.1%...only Tennessee is worse at 9.6%

Matter, great idea for a thread.  Thanks, and I like you defended you’re position on pressure rates.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

 

Wow! That's some deep dive analytics right there. Good work Matter.

 

A question: All things considered (in the above stats) it looks like the Bills have a pretty good run game--at least from their backs. Where does the breakdown come? When we assert "the Bills need to improve the run game," where? Is the low per game average skewed? Is it not really the best measure, or at least not a complete measure?

 

The line does not do a great job at giving them space at the adjusted line yards show...also the stuff percentage is not great even though it is near middle of NFL...

[BearNorth]

15 hours ago, jabu said:

 

Well they could be calling it the dreaded "Frisco"  🤣

When I lived out there in the 60's the locals always called it "The City".

 

[BillsFan130]

That’s interesting considering San Fran does a lot of short quick passes as well. (According to the SF reporter on the joe Marino podcast)

 

Let’s hope bills can take advantage of this.