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How the NFL is manipulating games in 2020: Fewer holding calls, faster games and way more offense


YoloinOhio

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There are a number of theories for the surge, from high-level quarterback play to the coronavirus pandemic-related loss of home-crowd advantage. All have merits. But there is another direct correlation, an inorganic root emanating from the league office. At the direction of its new leadership team, on-field officials have changed the way they enforce penalties -- especially offensive holding -- in a way that is too dramatic to ignore.



The decision has not only helped offenses, by cutting their penalty yards in half, but it has also led to slightly quicker games and certainly less public discussion about officiating.

Few fans would object to such aesthetics, and you've heard no complaints from teams. It's fair to ask whether the league can or will credibly sustain this effort, and to question where it will lead to as players and coaches test their new boundaries. More than anything, this episode is a stark reminder of how the NFL can manipulate its product without changing a single rule. It is football's equivalent to juicing the ball, an artificial injection of energy into the game.

 

 

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Why would they do this!?  For ratings and MONEY!?  The NFL!?   Inconceivable!

 

** And let us not forget that this season will be an important benchmark for the new television contracts so it will have an outsized impact on the NFL revenue stream. 

Edited by BarleyNY
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13 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Are there actual numbers on scoring this year compared to last year or years before? Everybody talks about how offenses are ahead of defenses but I didn't see any data.

 

I'll count it myself tonight but maybe it was published somewhere so help me out if you can.

I saw a few things that had some stats. One that sticks out(I may be remembering the wrong numbers) but there was something like an average of 12-13 games a year where both teams scored 30+ Points. This year its really close to that or already matched that.

 

i don’t recall where I saw that. Could be here or twitter

Edited by Not at the table Karlos
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36 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’ve noticed the lack of holding so much this season. In past years I would notice it every now and then. This season, I see it pretty much every snap. Not just minor missed holding calls, obvious calls where the defender is being grabbed from the snap. 

Hopefully our OL is taking advantage 

15 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Are there actual numbers on scoring this year compared to last year or years before? Everybody talks about how offenses are ahead of defenses but I didn't see any data.

 

I'll count it myself tonight but maybe it was published somewhere so help me out if you can.

 

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And this is surprising in what way? Give the masses what they want; TOUCHDOWNS! 9-7 defensive struggles are boring and why a lot of Americans don’t like soccer. The RedZone wouldn’t be nearly as exciting if they switched from a three and out in Cleveland to fair catch in Philly. 
 

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54 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Issue will be when they choose to enforce some of these penalties they’re letting slide. I have noticed tons of holding that’s not being called but I’m used to that in most games 

 

Actually, the big issue is (and has always been) how the refs selectively choose to enforce these penalties during the game.

 

For example, the play before Kroft's catch that was inexplicably ruled an INT, was a holding call on Mitch Morse.  @Simon commented elsewhere that he saw Morse holding all game.  OK, so at the start of the game, players kind of feel out what the officiating crew is going to allow, and Morse has it in his head "they're gonna let us hold".  Now all of a sudden on an important possession for the Bills late in the 3Q, the refs make 1st and 10, 1st and 18 on the Bills 21 by CALLING a holding penalty.  That clearly influences the game.

 

(then on the next play, that phony INT ruling ices the influence but I digress.  Check out how PFR has currently scored that play though).

 

My point is, the rules have to be consistently enforced.  If the refs have made a decision to not call offensive holding, then don't call offensive holding.  Don't call it selectively at key points in the game.

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51 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

Why they are doing it seems obvious to me. When baseball went on strike the guys came back huge and juiced as MLB knows they wanted to see offense and a breaking of records to help bring back the fans. McGuire Sosa brought back a lot of eyes that went away the 1st year post strike. 

 

This year ratings are way down and it's probably the growing frustration and striking of fans against the NFL and players turning political as well as CTE concerns. The ratings this year for the 1st few weeks for SNF, MNF have went down. SNF has gone down substantially.

 

I think it's a ploy for to help come back and watch as fans like offense more than defense. I'm sure the loss of fans from the first bit of kneeling had the owners instruct players to stand or incentivized them. I think the league knew this year was going to be a bad year because of this. 

 

It's McGuire Sosa tactics for the NFL: overlook what you find to be offensive and in exchange more excitement. Even if you stay away it won't be for long after looking at the box scores. 

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As long as scores don’t go crazy where teams are scoring 40-50 points on a regular basis, I am all for games where scoring is in the high 20’s or into the 30’s. 
 

I am not the football purist who proclaims the game is ruined if the score is not 13-10.  
 

Scoring = Excitement = Ratings

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6 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

 

Why they are doing it seems obvious to me. When baseball went on strike the guys came back huge and juiced as MLB knows they wanted to see offense and a breaking of records to help bring back the fans. McGuire Sosa brought back a lot of eyes that went away the 1st year post strike. 

 

This year ratings are way down and it's probably the growing frustration and striking of fans against the NFL and players turning political as well as CTE concerns. The ratings this year for the 1st few weeks for SNF, MNF have went down. SNF has gone down substantially.

 

I think it's a ploy for to help come back and watch as fans like offense more than defense. I'm sure the loss of fans from the first bit of kneeling had the owners instruct players to stand or incentivized them. I think the league knew this year was going to be a bad year because of this. 

 

It's McGuire Sosa tactics for the NFL: overlook what you find to be offensive and in exchange more excitement. Even if you stay away it won't be for long after looking at the box scores. 

Solid post and I agree. 

 

The inconsistency to the  calls or phantom calls are what kill me though. The refs 100% influence the outcome of these games, they are most likely told to let these games be close and start calling BS or ticky tack plays they were not prior.

 

Basically, what we seen up at 28-3 last Sunday. 

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the NFL is losing billions from lost gameday revenue

 

You think a company of their size wouldn't do something about that? They clearly are trying to make the games more entertaining to increase their ratings. thats why the officiating this season has been a total disaster so far. during the rams comeback I lost track of how many times Jerry was being held by their LT. NFL wants more scoring. 

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25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually, the big issue is (and has always been) how the refs selectively choose to enforce these penalties during the game.

 

For example, the play before Kroft's catch that was inexplicably ruled an INT, was a holding call on Mitch Morse.  @Simon commented elsewhere that he saw Morse holding all game.  OK, so at the start of the game, players kind of feel out what the officiating crew is going to allow, and Morse has it in his head "they're gonna let us hold".  Now all of a sudden on an important possession for the Bills late in the 3Q, the refs make 1st and 10, 1st and 18 on the Bills 21 by CALLING a holding penalty.  That clearly influences the game.

 

(then on the next play, that phony INT ruling ices the influence but I digress.  Check out how PFR has currently scored that play though).

 

My point is, the rules have to be consistently enforced.  If the refs have made a decision to not call offensive holding, then don't call offensive holding.  Don't call it selectively at key points in the game.

They did it in the super bowl. Bosa was eating the chiefs alive, then they were allowed to hold him non stop in the second half. I didn’t care who won or have a favorite in the matchup so I was pretty objective I feel on that one. It’s a big issue when it becomes discretion as opposed to actual rules 

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43 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Doesn’t really matter if this is true or not true.  All 32 teams playing under the same rules, same refs. 

It does matter if rules aren't being followed. If an offensive lineman is clearly holding they should call it, or they should change the rule.

 

As always, though, these rules are being inconsistently enforced from game to game and even from play to play in the same game. That's the real problem.

Edited by MJS
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This "rule emphasis change" has unintended consequences.  There are two ways to stop an NFL passing attack: Don't let receivers get open and get after the passer.  Teams like SF, Chicago and Washington have sunk huge resources into acquiring pass rushers; that is the identity of their defenses.  If offensive lines are suddenly able hold with near impunity, it neutralizes pass rushers (although it didn't seem to help against Aaron Donald), and makes defensive back play paramount.  If this change is permanent, the value of true cover cornerbacks is going to go through the roof and teams who have invested heavily in pass rushers will be left holding the bag.   

Edited by mannc
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3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Other than "illegal block in the back", offensive holding flag is the most bogus and unnecessary.

 

Good for the NFL for cutting down the penalty calling on what happens routinely.

Well if they want to not call it they should change the rule. As long as they have the rule in place they should call it.

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35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Other than "illegal block in the back", offensive holding flag is the most bogus and unnecessary.

 

 

Amazeballs how much this one has been minimized.  Any given game last year would have 5-6 of those flags per game.  Now?  Maybe 1-3 tops.  Those blocks in the back calls always seemed ticky tacky to me and annoyed the blazes outa me.  I was a HS and DII/III football official for 15 years and that was one flag I didn't throw unless it affected the actual play directly.  Same for holding.

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1 hour ago, mannc said:

This "rule emphasis change" has unintended consequences.  There are two ways to stop an NFL passing attack: Don't let receivers get open and get after the passer.  Teams like SF, Chicago and Washington have sunk huge resources into acquiring pass rushers; that is the identity of their defenses.  If offensive lines are suddenly able hold with near impunity, it neutralizes pass rushers (although it didn't seem to help against Aaron Donald), and makes defensive back play paramount.  If this change is permanent, the value of true cover cornerbacks is going to go through the roof and teams who have invested heavily in pass rushers will be left holding the bag.   

 

You are exactly right. It will also effect these guys stats which effect their contract negotiations. However, if the playing field is truly level with refs leagu wide making these adjustments then I guess front offices will have to adjust their benchmarks for what sack numbers and pressure stats are considered elite. 

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Another take on this. If refs are allowed the personal latitude to selectively enforce the rules to make the game more exciting and be more profitable for the NFL, it creates the environment where a few selective choices on enforcement can make the game more exciting and turn blowouts into close games (like the last game). And when you do that you affect the gambling payouts for the game. And with legalized online gambling, the opportunity to artificially make or lose money by whoever the "house" is. As the line between the teams and the owners becoming involved in profits from online gambling becomes more blurred, the temptations to selectively enforce the rules by the refs to enable someone's profit becomes more morally acceptable.  (affecting overs and unders and other lines, etc)

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually, the big issue is (and has always been) how the refs selectively choose to enforce these penalties during the game.

 

For example, the play before Kroft's catch that was inexplicably ruled an INT, was a holding call on Mitch Morse.  @Simon commented elsewhere that he saw Morse holding all game.  OK, so at the start of the game, players kind of feel out what the officiating crew is going to allow, and Morse has it in his head "they're gonna let us hold".  Now all of a sudden on an important possession for the Bills late in the 3Q, the refs make 1st and 10, 1st and 18 on the Bills 21 by CALLING a holding penalty.  That clearly influences the game.

 

(then on the next play, that phony INT ruling ices the influence but I digress.  Check out how PFR has currently scored that play though).

 

My point is, the rules have to be consistently enforced.  If the refs have made a decision to not call offensive holding, then don't call offensive holding.  Don't call it selectively at key points in the game.

Sometimes it seems the officials are there to carry out a script, like a movie or a play.  The Bills were winning too easily, and the glamour LA team was embarrassed, so it was time to make the game a little more interesting.

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2 hours ago, mannc said:

This "rule emphasis change" has unintended consequences.  There are two ways to stop an NFL passing attack: Don't let receivers get open and get after the passer.  Teams like SF, Chicago and Washington have sunk huge resources into acquiring pass rushers; that is the identity of their defenses.  If offensive lines are suddenly able hold with near impunity, it neutralizes pass rushers (although it didn't seem to help against Aaron Donald), and makes defensive back play paramount.  If this change is permanent, the value of true cover cornerbacks is going to go through the roof and teams who have invested heavily in pass rushers will be left holding the bag.   

 

Suddenly?   It's pervasive and therefore impossible to enforce in an equitable manner.

 

Anyway....it was only a year ago:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27282277/nfl-officials-emphasize-offensive-holding-19

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Honestly, I welcome anything that reduces the amount of flags being thrown.

 

As long as it is applied somewhat equally to all teams and does not harm player safety. Maybe it is just me, but I have watched the game for years and have watched it gradually become less and less enjoyable as more and more rules were introduced and the game flow was interrupted over and over again with officiating.

 

Flags on interior linemen, barely a thing a decade or two ago, but you would see them regularly wiping out a huge run away from the infraction or a long gainer when you know your QB would have easily still gotten the pass off. One could probably call a technical hold on an interior lineman on just about every play if you looked for it. Every big play instead of celebrating we were all bracing for the inevitable "flag on the play"...no we did not get an 18 yard scamper we are going back 5 yards......

 

They were killing the game I love and making it damn near unwatchable at times with the stifling amount of flags getting tossed. Then in the post season with the better officiating squads there seemed to be an unspoken rule to let the players play - sort of like hockey. I don't have numbers to back that up, but it feels like there are less flags in the post season than in the regular season and those games have a continuity and are usually easier to get into - unless it is a lopsided blowout.

 

 

Well, the flip side of this theory is that the media can finally pin something to Allen's "miraculous" breakout playing QB this season other than the impossible idea that he works tirelessly to improve his craft 😈

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Suddenly?   It's pervasive and therefore impossible to enforce in an equitable manner.

 

Anyway....it was only a year ago:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27282277/nfl-officials-emphasize-offensive-holding-19

I’m confused.  That is the opposite of what’s happening now.  But I agree that enforcement of offensive holding is pretty arbitrary, but that’s nothing new.  You’ve always been able to call it on pretty much every play.

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Just now, mannc said:

I’m confused.  That is the opposite of what’s happening now.  But I agree that enforcement of offensive holding is pretty arbitrary, but that’s nothing new.  You’ve always been able to call it on pretty much every play.

 

Yes.  A year ago it was a "point of emphasis".  Now, they realized how futile that was and are headed in the opposite way.

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