Week 3 PFF Grade of Josh Allen

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, StHustle said:

Josh "Anomaly" Allen

 

I like this

[TwistofFate]

Allen is an anomaly.  Data doesn't lie. At the moment it appears he is the winning lottery ticket. 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by TwistofFate

[Thurman#1]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Even when they praise him they are wrong. Last week against the Dolphins was the best passing game of his career. It is really not even close.

 

 

I will never stop reminding people that their grades are done by unpaid interns using a convoluted manual, with broadcast footage only. How did they even grade Allen last week? They missed two entire drives.

 

 

I was amazed when you said that, and went to check. I don't know, man, it doesn't appear to be true. Here's what they say:

 

 

https://www.pff.com/grades

 

"WHO IS DOING THE GRADING?

 

"PFF employs over 600 full or part-time analysts, but less than 10% of analysts are trained to the level that they can grade plays. Only the top two to three percent of analysts are on the team of “senior analysts” in charge of finalizing each grade after review. Our graders have been training for months, and sometimes years, in order to learn, understand and show mastery of our process that includes our 300-page training manual and video playbook. We have analysts from all walks of life, including former players, coaches and scouts. We don’t care if you played.

Each grade is reviewed at least once, and usually multiple times, using every camera angle available, including All-22 coaches’ tape."

 

 

 

Doesn't mean their grades will be perfect, by any means, but what you said doesn't seem to be true. Although the "convoluted manual" part appears to be right on the money. Nothing necessarily wrong with that, though, IMO.

 

It's a good question as to what they did without the footage when the broadcast broke down. Someone should ask them.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Thurman#1

[HappyDays]

37 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I was amazed when you said that, and went to check. I don't know, man, it doesn't appear to be true. Here's what they say:

 

I can't find the link now but I clearly remember last year they made a post asking for applicants for one of their part-time "analyst" positions. The post said it would give applicants a great "opportunity" to eventually land real work and get access to all of PFF's subscription material. In so many words it was saying spend 20 hours a week for little to no money to help put our data together and maybe you'll end up making money here some day.

 

I'll admit I didn't know only 10% of their analysts actually graded the plays. But there's no way 20 senior analysts (rough estimate using their numbers) are comprehensively reviewing every single grade submitted by their graders. Especially considering their grades are usually posted the morning after a game.

 

Also all-22 footage isn't usually released until Tuesday so I don't know how they'd use that footage unless they're getting early access to it. Everything I've read about them indicates they are using broadcast footage.

Edited September 30, 2020 by HappyDays

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can't find the link now but I clearly remember last year they made a post asking for applicants for one of their part-time "analyst" positions. The post said it would give applicants a great "opportunity" to eventually land real work and get access to all of PFF's subscription material. In so many words it was saying spend 20 hours a week for little to no money to help put our data together and maybe you'll end up making money here some day.

 

I'll admit I didn't know only 10% of their analysts actually graded the plays. But there's no way 20 senior analysts (rough estimate using their numbers) are comprehensively reviewing every single grade submitted by their graders. Especially considering their grades are usually posted the morning after a game.

 

Also all-22 footage isn't usually released until later in the day on Monday or Tuesday so I don't know how they'd use that footage unless they're getting early access to it. Everything I've read about them indicates they are using broadcast footage.

 

 

Happy, you're a great poster. Consistently so.

 

But there's no way you, a guy with no access whatsoever, can reasonably say that "But there's no way 20 senior analysts (rough estimate using their numbers) are comprehensively reviewing every single grade submitted by their graders." You simply don't know that. Saying that 20 guys can't comprehensively review 32 games in 20 hours (assuming the 1:00 game scores are posted at 10:00 a.m., for example) it just doesn't make any sense. Of course they could.

 

As for the All-22 film, here are some questions I don't know the answers to. Do you?

 

Do they have early access? Do they have their own film? Do they put guys up in the stands to film? Do they post all scores the next morning ... or only some? Assuming they don't have access before the NFL makes their own film available, do they go back and change things based on the All-22 when it becomes available? 

 

They say they use All-22 as part of their scores, as I quoted above. Are you calling them liars, with no evidence whatsoever? Doesn't make sense, Happy. As for the link asking for applicants for "analyst" positions, what's wrong with hiring interns with the promise that if they're successful they might get paid work down the road? This is extremely common for corporate America. Not all hiring is done this way, obviously, but you aren't showing that PFF does all their hiring that way either, just that they may be hiring some interns who may get paid work down the line if they do a good job. This is how internships work and internships are commonplace throughout America. And your assumption that those interns' work will be what makes up the scores ("their grades are done by unpaid interns," you said) doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Edited September 30, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Turk71]

9 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Great to read.

 

My only comment is maybe this huge jump isnt all due to Josh.   that there have been a few  balls thrown this year, that in prior years, would not have been deemed "uncatchable" or inaccurate, major difference is many of these balls have been caught this year.  Why...Diggs having some normal NFL level WR #1 catches and Gabe Davis, netter tracking by all receivers and more effective use or rub plays.  I give a lot of credit to Diggs, he is a very tough, strong  and dedicated WR..

 

It has only been three games so very few catches in these category can makes a tremendous difference.

Allen is more confident and playing better. His passes are more accurate with more touch. I agree that having receivers making tough catches is a great addition. Diggs has been even better than I thought he was, a revelation to this point and Davis has been great. Even with the new weapons, I can't deny that Allen has seemingly turned a corner and is playing at another level now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Dion Dawkins laid it down last January:

 

First things first and it’s a pretty serious issue.

It’s an epidemic sweeping across America. 

It’s called “people wanting to jump on this Bills bandwagon.” .....(....)......Those people, they think to themselves, Man. I need to get on this Bills bandwagon for next season!! I need to become a Bills fan now. And they try to jump on.

I have an important message for those people:

DO NOT TRY THIS.

DO NOT — I REPEAT, DO NOT — ATTEMPT TO ACCESS THE BILLS BANDWAGON AT THIS TIME. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT CAPACITY. 

THE BUFFALO BILLS BANDWAGON IS FULL.

[MJS]

Seems like they have been under pressure to give him higher scores if week 3 was better than week 2. Allen should definately have had a higher grade in week 2. I thought Allen regressed a bit week 3, although he turned it around and still had an excellent game. I don't see how they can rate week 3 higher than week 2.

Edited September 30, 2020 by MJS

[GreggTX]

100% accurate. Now he just needs to clean up the fumbles. I get that QB's will fumble when they are looking to throw, but there's no reason for so many after he pulls it down. They're also right about his progression. He took a way bigger step this year than last. In any case, if we can get the defense clicking again, watch out. Josh has carried this team on his back so far.

[Billsfan1972]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

100% accurate. Now he just needs to clean up the fumbles. I get that QB's will fumble when they are looking to throw, but there's no reason for so many after he pulls it down. They're also right about his progression. He took a way bigger step this year than last. In any case, if we can get the defense clicking again, watch out. Josh has carried this team on his back so far.

The fumble week 3 was one no QB could avoid (and Allen almost did).  Horse Collared, Facemasked and thrown violently to the ground by Aaaron Donald.  Oh and no time at all either to react.  Yep 100% Allen's fault.  

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

But there's no way you, a guy with no access whatsoever, can reasonably say that "But there's no way 20 senior analysts (rough estimate using their numbers) are comprehensively reviewing every single grade submitted by their graders." You simply don't know that. Saying that 20 guys can't comprehensively review 32 games in 20 hours (assuming the 1:00 game scores are posted at 10:00 a.m., for example) it just doesn't make any sense. Of course they could.

 

To do what they claim to do, they have to watch every single play in the NFL 22 times while watching a different player on every viewing. Let's say there are 120 plays in a game and 16 games a week. That would mean over 42,000 total plays to view and grade in less than 24 hours. There's no way that is happening at the level it needs to create any kind of objective result. I don't know, maybe they're grading multiple players at once which is a poor system in itself.

 

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Do they have early access? Do they have their own film? Do they put guys up in the stands to film? Do they post all scores the next morning ... or only some? Assuming they don't have access before the NFL makes their own film available, do they go back and change things based on the All-22 when it becomes available? 

 

It would be nice if they told us this information but they are very vague about their process. Like with DVOA they obviously don't publish their entire algorithm but at least we know what they're measuring and how they get there. I don't know what PFF does. Since their results often don't mesh with reality I'm not inclined to blindly trust them.

 

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

As for the link asking for applicants for "analyst" positions, what's wrong with hiring interns with the promise that if they're successful they might get paid work down the road? This is extremely common for corporate America. Not all hiring is done this way, obviously, but you aren't showing that PFF does all their hiring that way either, just that they may be hiring some interns who may get paid work down the line if they do a good job.

 

I understand low paying and unpaid internships are common but who are the people doing their grading? Why should I trust them? It doesn't give me a lot of confidence to know their complex 300-page grading system is handled by interns, that's all I'm saying.

[DuckyBoys]

Well in their weekly review video they were both very complementary on Allen  This week not one pot shot and Sam Monsoon (lead Allen hater) said he was the most fun player in the NFL to watch.  They are coming around to the idea of a high floor high ceiling qb with room to grow that does not need to be perfect in their grading standards to win games.  Doesnt take away from all their snideness the past 2+ years but they see Allen ascending and not falling on his face

[DCOrange]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can't find the link now but I clearly remember last year they made a post asking for applicants for one of their part-time "analyst" positions. The post said it would give applicants a great "opportunity" to eventually land real work and get access to all of PFF's subscription material. In so many words it was saying spend 20 hours a week for little to no money to help put our data together and maybe you'll end up making money here some day.

 

I'll admit I didn't know only 10% of their analysts actually graded the plays. But there's no way 20 senior analysts (rough estimate using their numbers) are comprehensively reviewing every single grade submitted by their graders. Especially considering their grades are usually posted the morning after a game.

 

Also all-22 footage isn't usually released until Tuesday so I don't know how they'd use that footage unless they're getting early access to it. Everything I've read about them indicates they are using broadcast footage.

Re: the timeframe of getting grades out Monday when All-22 footage comes out Tuesday, they might have early access, but they also adjust their grades throughout the week so it wouldn't surprise me if the grades we see on Monday are basically preliminary grades until they get the all-22 or something like that.

 

Re: one of your other replies about potentially grading multiple players at once, I believe that is indeed what they do. I think they said they have three people working on each game: one does offensive skill positions, one does defensive skill positions, and one does the offensive/defensive lines. I think this was discussed in that Athletic article from a week or so ago.

Edited September 30, 2020 by DCOrange

[CapeBreton]

17 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

Something changed at PFF. They realized the Bills are about to be a good team for a while and that they have fully alienated the fanbase and appear to be trying to walk back years of BS by kissing some butt and articles like Fairburn's coming out to say they aren't hating on us intentionally. Bridge burned. Their grading system is trash.  

 

They hired Ian Hartitz this summer and he absolutely loves Josh Allen, so maybe he's putting in a good word. He's a good follow on Twitter for fantasy football info.

 

We all know their grading system is completely bogus though, it makes absolutely zero sense.

[Billsfan1972]

And again where did he rank in week 3?  I believe 400+ yards 4 TD's, no Ints (or fumbles) didn't get him in the top 10.🤣

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Re: the timeframe of getting grades out Monday when All-22 footage comes out Tuesday, they might have early access, but they also adjust their grades throughout the week so it wouldn't surprise me if the grades we see on Monday are basically preliminary grades until they get the all-22 or something like that.

 

The grades normally come out Tuesday morning I think. If they come out Monday it must be late your time on Monday. And as you say grades are adjusted as they go.

[TigerJ]

Most QBs drafted highly, with the expectation that they will soon be a starter in the NFL, were already recognized as quality QBs in high school.  They got recruited by big schools with highly respected football programs.  Even those who don't check all of those boxes check at least some of them.  Josh Allen played 7 on 7 ball in high school and went to a junior college because no four years school wanted to touch him.  He had far less preparation for the pro game than just about anybody we could name.  That did not make the present situation (Josh Allen making a leap in year three) inevitable, but in my thinking it makes it far less shocking than for a QB with a more typical path to the pros.  In my thinking this is almost a logical next step to what has ben a unique path for an NFL QB going all the way back to the beginning.

[brianb386]

18 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And how did Lamar grade vs. KC?  Bet they will say many incompletions were catchable balls.   

 

Oh and that dig that they were to open receivers is typical.

yes our receivers have done an amazing job, but Allen has been completing a bunch of tough throws as well. I will give them that Diggs, especially has caught some throws that a lot of other receivers would not have, but Allen has put the ball in places to make that possible.

Edited September 30, 2020 by brianb386

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen is an anomaly.  Data doesn't lie. At the moment it appears he is the winning lottery ticket. 

 

Data doesn’t lie, but when you do a poor job converting it into information, you can lie to yourself and everyone else all day long. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

19 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Most QBs drafted highly, with the expectation that they will soon be a starter in the NFL, were already recognized as quality QBs in high school.  They got recruited by big schools with highly respected football programs.  Even those who don't check all of those boxes check at least some of them.  Josh Allen played 7 on 7 ball in high school and went to a junior college because no four years school wanted to touch him.  He had far less preparation for the pro game than just about anybody we could name.  That did not make the present situation (Josh Allen making a leap in year three) inevitable, but in my thinking it makes it far less shocking than for a QB with a more typical path to the pros.  In my thinking this is almost a logical next step to what has ben a unique path for an NFL QB going all the way back to the beginning.

 

Wait. What the hell is 7 on 7 ball? 

[416BillsFan]

I hope I don't get banned for using PFF data, but good for Daryl Williams on being their RT of the week and Levi Wallace for being CB2.

[BigDingus]

No, you can't post things like that because they assign fault to Allen for poor passes in his first 2 seasons, and that is not allowed. It was all Daboll, the O-line, WR's, McDermott & the media's lack of faith! 

But seriously, Allen has shown REAL growth this year. I feel like I need to emphasize this, but whether he had Diggs/Brown/Beasley or not, whether the O-line played this well or not, he himself grew substantially between seasons 2 & 3. He's doing things completely separate from those other elements that show he as a QB has improved. THAT is what is important imo.

[TigerJ]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Wait. What the hell is 7 on 7 ball? 

I believe I recall that because Firebaugh High School was so small, they could not field a team with enough players to put 11 players on the field at the same time.  Apparently similarly small schools in the same general area formed a league that played a version of football with only 7 players on the field at a time.  Wikipedia reports that because a lot of team members also played baseball, the football team did not participate in "7 on 7 camps."

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I believe I recall that because Firebaugh High School was so small, they could not field a team with enough players to put 11 players on the field at the same time.  Apparently similarly small schools in the same general area formed a league that played a version of football with only 7 players on the field at a time.  Wikipedia reports that because a lot of team members also played baseball, the football team did not participate in "7 on 7 camps."

Wait. So JA literally didn't play football until College?  I mean, I know he wasn't groomed like most QBs, but that is insane. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, 416BillsFan said:

I hope I don't get banned for using PFF data, but good for Daryl Williams on being their RT of the week and Levi Wallace for being CB2.

I though Williams had his worst game tbh after two very good ones

[947]

8 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I believe I recall that because Firebaugh High School was so small, they could not field a team with enough players to put 11 players on the field at the same time.  Apparently similarly small schools in the same general area formed a league that played a version of football with only 7 players on the field at a time.  Wikipedia reports that because a lot of team members also played baseball, the football team did not participate in "7 on 7 camps."

Allen played regular 11-on-11 football in HS, there are vids of his HS highlights on YouTube. The 7-on-7 referred to is flag football, which most skill position players do nowadays in the offseason from regular football. Surprisingly, a lot of recruiting is now done from 7-on-7 events.

[Kelly the Dog]

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”

― Mark Twain

[roboticus]

3 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Most QBs drafted highly, with the expectation that they will soon be a starter in the NFL, were already recognized as quality QBs in high school.  They got recruited by big schools with highly respected football programs.  Even those who don't check all of those boxes check at least some of them.  Josh Allen played 7 on 7 ball in high school and went to a junior college because no four years school wanted to touch him.  He had far less preparation for the pro game than just about anybody we could name.  That did not make the present situation (Josh Allen making a leap in year three) inevitable, but in my thinking it makes it far less shocking than for a QB with a more typical path to the pros.  In my thinking this is almost a logical next step to what has ben a unique path for an NFL QB going all the way back to the beginning.

 

Josh's back story is what had me so intrigued at draft time,  he was/is a "black swan".  A prospect with gold jacket tools, who for many reasons did not benefit from the grooming process a typical top QB pick goes through.  Small rural HS, no elite camps, no specialization (multi sport athlete), late bloomer physically (see facial hair).  Thus the complete lack of interest from Div 1 and the resulting Juco/Wyoming path.  I think this is where data driven analytics failed with him as a prospect?  His development process in no way matches the typical players that generate the data.  I'm no expert so maybe models try to account for that but it seems like a reasonable assumption. 

 

It all depended on the situation he landed in, but more importantly on him.  I was comfortable with this regime's ability to determine if he had what it takes to turn those tools into reality on an NFL field.   Luckily for us fans, it's looking like that faith is being rewarded.  He is proving to everyone that his work ethic, willingness to improve, and motivation are off the charts.  Add all the other intangibles he exhibits and what more can we ask for?

 

 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Re: the timeframe of getting grades out Monday when All-22 footage comes out Tuesday, they might have early access, but they also adjust their grades throughout the week so it wouldn't surprise me if the grades we see on Monday are basically preliminary grades until they get the all-22 or something like that.

 

So why release the grades that early at all? Again it would be easier to trust their process if we had any clue how it worked.

 

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Re: one of your other replies about potentially grading multiple players at once, I believe that is indeed what they do.

 

That alone could explain some of their problems. They're trying to condense a ton of labor hours into a very short time frame which means corners will be cut somewhere. At least with Joe Buscaglia's grades for example I know he can do the necessary work because it's just one game. If PFF really has 60-70 people grading every player in every play of every game, it's not realistic to expect quality work.

[Bangarang]

As always, PFF should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

[TwistofFate]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Data doesn’t lie, but when you do a poor job converting it into information, you can lie to yourself and everyone else all day long. 

No one lied to themselves.  The data acquired over 2 years on Allen clearly pointed unfavorably.  That's realism. 

 

What he has accomplished thus far is nothing short of winning the lottery.  All the data clearly show the odds of winning is next to nothing, but that doesn't mean you won't win....Its just highly unlikely. 

 

That's where Allen is now...the Golden Ticket.....and I pray it stays this way. 

[oldmanfan]

Never read their stuff, never will

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.”

― Mark Twain

 

Twain - I loved that quote and often shared it with my son

 

Me - Son you will never be wiser than me.

My boy - why do you say that?

Me - Because I have more years on earth and more experience than you.

My son - By that rationale, I will never be wiser than you.

Me - Bingo!

 

He has gotten better at "adulting" over the years, but not quite ready to concede the race yet.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

No one lied to themselves.  The data acquired over 2 years on Allen clearly pointed unfavorably.  That's realism. 

 

What he has accomplished thus far is nothing short of winning the lottery.  All the data clearly show the odds of winning is next to nothing, but that doesn't mean you won't win....Its just highly unlikely. 

 

That's where Allen is now...the Golden Ticket.....and I pray it stays this way. 

That’s exactly what the incorrect and arrogant analysts do, they uphold their model and cite an alternate ending as a fluke improbability instead of questioning if the model is what is flawed. 
 

Maybe Josh was a late bloomer and had very little elite professional level coaching until 5-7 years later in his QB career. 
 

maybe if Tom Brady Was thrust into a starting role after his freshman year at Michigan, he would’ve takes a few more years to develop. 
 

Drew Brees was never going to amount to anything  after his first 3 years either, not were Farve, Young etc. 

 

meanwhile the ‘model’ rolls out misses like Baker, Darnold, Rosen and misses Lamar. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Richard Noggin]

On 9/29/2020 at 4:01 PM, teef said:

on one's on it yet?

 

 

oh mykidsdad!

 

How many years now have I been able to chuckle at this? It spans from the official team board to this one, right?

[Billsfan1972]

Again anyone know where he was ranked week three?  His Rating, QBR, yards & did throw an interception were all down from week two vs Miami where he ranked behind Darnold.  

 

Oh & with what I could see the headline as expected said Lamar was not that bad.

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/grades/position/qb

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-3-nfl-qb-review-patrick-mahomes-lamar-jackson-russell-wilson-aaron-rodgers

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, BigDingus said:

But seriously, Allen has shown REAL growth this year. I feel like I need to emphasize this, but whether he had Diggs/Brown/Beasley or not, whether the O-line played this well or not, he himself grew substantially between seasons 2 & 3. He's doing things completely separate from those other elements that show he as a QB has improved. THAT is what is important imo.

 

Agree completely with this. Is having a stud like Diggs making things easier and opening some things up? Absolutely. But this is fundamentally about the growth of Josh Allen - really since after that Cleveland game. Coming out of that game he had 20 passing touchdowns in 21 games. Since then he has 20 passing touchdown in 10 games (and really in 9 games because he threw 5 passes then walked off in week 17). Play fearless McDermott said to him after that Browns game. Fearless indeed.

Edited October 1, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree completely with this. Is having a stud like Diggs making things easier and opening some things up? Absolutely. But this is fundamentally about the growth of Josh Allen - really since after that Cleveland game. Coming out of that game he had 20 passing touchdowns in 21 games. Since then he has 20 passing touchdown in 10 games (and really in 9 games because he threw 5 passes then walked off in week 17). Play fearless McDermott said to him after that Browns game. Fearless indeed.

Play fearless......  That's a good one, how about coaching Fearless in 2019.  Anyone remember that Pittsburgh game?  This was the 2019 argument, which thankfully seems no longer one in 2020.

 

I know we love Buffalo's core, but Cleveland seems to have one on par with Buffalo (and way better in 2019) and look what their "star" has produced to date.

[teef]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

How many years now have I been able to chuckle at this? It spans from the official team board to this one, right?

it sure does.

 

 

it's the small things in life...ya know?

[Stank_Nasty]

I try not to get too high or too low on PFF anymore. I used to let them get to me but i've just decided to not let it happen anymore. That being said, this is their week 3 in review and its very clear they are doing quite the 180 on Allen. It looks like even his most bull headed detractors are being forced to tuck tail as long as he consistently keeps playing at a ridiculous level. Are there some backhanded comments? Sure. But as a general rule this is a nice little review of Allen here.... starts at 26:50 mark.