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I was WRONG about Josh Allen


Zerovoltz

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36 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Then maybe you should be thanking “people like me”.  

 

But in all seriousness, your point about Allen taking a 2 win team to bowl games falls on deaf ears when you realize it didn’t happen because of superior QB play, but rather because he just happened to be the best “athlete” on the field in a very minimally talented conference- kinda like me in Little League...lol

 

And that’s ok...Anyone you talk to (except for yourself) of course, will tell you that Josh is an outlier, if he ends up working out long term...His pre NFL numbers did not project success as a pro- and that’s just the truth of the matter...it does not make people bad people or “full of BS”, as you like to put it, just because you can’t, emotionally, handle differing opinions based on statistical trends...but, best of luck to you...👍

 

 

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?

Edited by Warcodered
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I think Allen has unlimited potential.  And he has looked great the last two games.  But let’s tap the brakes just a bit.  Still a lot of games to play, and as a young QB still it’s likely he’ll struggle some down the road.  But even with that, I think we’ve got our guy for the long term.

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Plenty of us were wrong about Josh. I watched a couple of those Wyoming games back over lockdown when I had nothing better to do, and I have to say, I still wouldn't draft him based on that tape. Now what I always say is the armchair amateurs like me can't sit down with the kid. We can't get a feel for the personality. We can't get him on the whiteboard and see how much he actually understands. Because almost everyone (even including me) recognised his ceiling if it all came together, but based just on what I saw on the tape as it were I believed his floor to be rock bottom.

 

I did say in the days following the draft though that I was not going to be one of those guys who sought confirmation of my opinion every time Josh missed a throw in training camp or had a clunker game as a rookie. For the most part I have been really impressed with the way he has developed in the NFL. I do think there was a small cluster of games in the middle of last year (between NE1 and CLE) where it looked like he might be starting to level out, but he didn't and he kicked on again at the end of last year and then so far in 2020 he has been outstanding as a passer. And it is about more than numbers. Yes, the numbers tell you Josh is playing better, but so much of the improvement is the little nuances of the position that to now he has always struggled with that the numbers don't show. His little slides up and around in the pocket to find the passing lane, the recognising defences and changing plays at the line, the ability to control his emotions a little more both when good and bad things happen. He has been extremely impressive.

 

So while I wouldn't have drafted him, I am mighty pleased the Buffalo Bills did.

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Does this mean that the Church of the Holy Completion Percentage, overwhelmed with apostates at last, is closing its doors for good? Or will we be assaulted with preachy sermons on high level analytics on Allen's DVOACRAP  percentage from every street corner the second he has anything less than a perfect game?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?

I swear, some you guys get waaaaaaay too defensive and bent out of shape over any kind of critical analysis of Bills players- almost like a personal insult...it’s quite bizarre and can make it somewhat difficult to have any rational dialogue.

 

While all the factors you mention certainly contribute to the overall production of the player, the reason people mostly use numbers to judge players is because those other factors you’re talking about harder to quantify.

 

Sure, there are some QBs that defy what their mediocre college stats project, but not typically to the extend that Allen has- it is VERY uncommon, and he should be commended for defying those odds...it’s not an easy thing to do...I am certainly encouraged moving forward.

 

 

Edited by JaCrispy
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1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers.

 

This.

Football is not Baseball, way more variables involved. Too many fans have seen "Moneyball" one too many times. Stats are far better at telling you what happened as opposed to what will happen. Completion percentage is a good example of how stats can be helpful but also deceiving. Unaccounted for variables abound. Is the play calling uninspired? Is the OL routinely terrible? Is the offensive system predictable and poorly crafted? Do the WR's get open? Do they drop a lot of balls or are they unable to make contested catches? Is the defense awful so that the offense is forced to air it out? Is their running game nonexistent? Do they play in a brutal division with lots of good defenses with top notch secondaries? Is the coaching staff lousy? Does the offense call for lots of throws that are high reward/high risk? On and on it goes. 

 

Stats are very, very helpful, no doubt, but we shouldn't be blinded by them. 

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24 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Does this mean that the Church of the Holy Completion Percentage, overwhelmed with apostates at last, is closing its doors for good? Or will we be assaulted with preachy sermons on high level analytics on Allen's DVOACRAP  percentage from every street corner the second he has anything less than a perfect game?

 

 

Well, the world couldn't rid itself of Jim Bakker, could it?

*
😁

Edited by Ridgewaycynic2013
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9 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I joined this board, after the trade that allowed KC to select Patrick Mahomes and have stuck around the last few years to see how things played out.  I hung out here, speculating about all the 2018 QB's, the draft manuvering, and watched you guys all debate and discuss who you wanted the Bills to take. .....when the Bills took Allen.....I came here and put in my 2 cents.  I did NOT think Allen would make it as an NFL QB.  I was on the side of the debate that said, his completion pct is who he is, and who he's going to be.  I didn't think he could improve enough to be much more than an enticiing novelty.  I posted that opinion here numerous times.

 

I am here today to tell you.....to admit....the I was WRONG.  While I've always enjoyed watching Allen play, I'd always thought he'd ultimately be a flash in the pan in the big picture as time wore on.  He's not.  He's legit.  He's taken a big leap each season he's been in the NFL.  It's a credit to him, and especially to your coaching staff for identifying the talent, and the potential, and then actually getting Allen to progress.  I want to thank you all for allowing me to be a part of your community and give my opinion.  I have enjoyed it, and will continue to pop in from time to time.  I'm sure I'll be around when KC plays the Bills...that should be fun.  Anyhow....one more time....

 

I WAS WRONG ABOUT JOSH ALLEN.  I'll be having that crow now. 

I think the main thing that we don’t get to see is how driven he was, how determined to get and be great that he is, and how much he loves the game. His work ethic is what has brought him to this point. Really is fun to watch him grow and you have to respect the dedication the kid has for sure 

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I don't think this kid has ever been given a fair shake......let me explain

 

1)Despite having a cannon arm and great athletic ability he wasn't recruited to a big school

 

2) He went to a JUCO to continue playing.

 

3) Wyoming comes calling and he basically has to carry the team.

 

4)All the prognosticators say Josh  is a long term project and will need to redshirt in the NFL for a few years.

 

5) All the people that thought this young man would never amount to anything in the NFL are having a hard time explaining themselves now and saying its just a flash in the pan thing.

 

Your not alone in having to eat crow but at least you admitted your mistake 

 

 

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I actually got interviewed at the Distillery in Rochester NY by R News when the pick was announced.  I liked it then and I REALLY like it now.  There were a few missteps along the way, no one is perfect ya know.  There are going to be some absolutely head banging moments in the future too.  Again - no one is perfect.

 

Thanks OP for a nice thread and it is good to see how many people are coming around and admitting that the kid is something special.  He is gonna have a tough row to hoe these next few weeks so I am expecting some teeth gnashing and expletive's and a few folks hopping off the wagon on this board but overall, I think the Bills have an answer at QB for the next few seasons. 

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7 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

I was all about Josh Rosen. Im glad I didnt make the draft pick.

 

I thought Baker was going to be the stud QB of this draft....he had that swagger about him.

 

His swagger is really arrogance...not good and I was wrong about him.

 

When Cleveland took him 1st I wanted Josh Allen to be the pick

 

His swagger is real swagger the kind of confidence that teammates get behind and follow

Edited by JMF2006
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I hear there is a severe crow shortage in WNY. Back when Allen was drafted, I kind of kept quiet at first. I was not overly thrilled or upset with the pick. I expected them to pick Rosen.I started doing a little research and a few things stuck out. First raised on a farm. Anyone that knows a farmer knows that they are the hardest workers on the planet. Next was the path he took. Small High School star, no college offers at all busted his ass at Reedley College for a year before getting an offer from Wyoming where he started to show his potential. That blue collar mentality along with the "Chosen Rosen" being uncoachable, made me more comfortable with the long term expectations of the pick. Shortly after the pick, I commented here that While Rosen may have been the better Quarterback at the time, Allen was the better fit with this team and community. But as of now he has greatly exceeded my expectations. Lets see how he does against the Rams, but so far, so good

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9 hours ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

I want to throw an interesting idea out there - If we had pick Mahomes that year - he would 1) not have anywhere near the stats he has compiled to this point 2) we would not have been any faster to ascend from being a perennial bottom 10 team 3) due to the smaller market stigma that Buffalo suffers from along with points 1 and 2, he would basically be viewed only slightly more favorably than Allen has been 

 

Plus we filled 3 huge holes with the picks acquired in that trade

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5 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

The Bills didn't too bad at all with those pics Tre White.Snohwman and Edmunds

True. And McDermott has said, at the time they were not ready for a franchise Quarterback.Remember that was a McDermott / Whaley draft. Beane was not here yet. Mahomes joined what was a perfect situation for a rookie QB. Had he been drafted by the Bills at that time the results would probably been more Sam Darnold like or IR than the way Mahomes turned out

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10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

.....that doesn't have anything to do with it.....   It's easy to admit this because Allen has completely exceeded what I thought he'd be....if you go back and look at what I thought would happen.....it's easy to admit because I was clearly wrong about it. 

 

Honestly, kudos to you...it takes character to come onto a message board of a team that is not yours and admit a mistake. Thank you simply for owning it. You didn't have to, you could have continued to hide away in the shadows and except for a message board tough guy trying to call you out, you stepped out of the shadows on your own and honestly owned. Well done. 

 

I am honestly one who didn't know what to make of the pick. I can say my heart sank when Allen was the announced pick, but truly while sitting in a hotel room in Saratoga that night, I believed in Beane because of what he had done already and decided to Trust the Process. I still questioned it and of course those first few games had me believing we bought fools gold. But his final four games of his Rookie year showed me something. Then last year a big step and by the end of the season, even with some foolish mistakes in the Houston game, I believed Allen had everything a good QB needs, but he needed another year to take the leap into a top 5 QB. Now, who knows? Maybe he'll regress or maybe he's actually going to get better. I don't know. But I do know, based on everything I've seen and read - Allen's the guy. Full stop. No caveats. He's the QB for this team for the next 12ish years.....as long as he continues to learn to slide.

 

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2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?


Kind of disagree.  The numbers may have been misleading in projecting failure - but that doesn’t mean it was reasonable to predict success.  The fact that he was in a bad offense with no playmakers might explain why his numbers were bad, but it still leaves you with very little to project that he’d be great (or even mediocre) with a better supporting cast.

 

My issue with the pick at the time was the fact that the Bills as an organization did not have a history of developing outliers, and certainly did not seem set up to do so Josh’s rookie year (no real QB coach, no vet QB to learn behind, no receivers or offensive line).  Given the state of the roster and coaching staff, and the team’s horrible player development record going back two decades at that point, I didn’t want them taking “projects” or “risks” - I wanted them to pick someone who could run the offense quickly and cerebrally to make up for the lack of weapons.  I was worried they’d ruin a project like Josh and we’d be back to drafting another QB a few years later.

 

They - more specifically Josh - proved me wrong.  It’s simply amazing to think about the situation he was put in his first season (Peterman, no weapons, etc.) and the fact he persevered and developed is a true testament to his unique football character.  It’s a great story and I love watching the guy play every week, I wouldn’t trade him for any other QB.

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The pre-draft analysis on Josh Allen was not wrong.

Coming out of Wyoming, he absolutely was a high-risk prospect.  His mechanics, footwork and overall accuracy were a mess.  He couldn't read a defense, and his decision-making was very often questionable.  His production was also less than impressive, even against poor competition.  Honestly, there shouldn't be any shame from those who expected Allen to be a bust.  At the time of the draft, he needed a complete overhaul of his game.  And past history shows those kinds of QBs fail way more often than they succeed.

 

Where Allen's critics failed, was with their post-draft analysis.

 

The majority of people in Buffalo have seen this coming.  It's not really a huge surprise.  They have watched every single snap of Allen's career.... from his sloppy preseason debut backing up Nathan Peterman, to his hurdle of Anthony Barr, to the playoff breakdown in Houston, and finally to his MVP-like performance last Sunday.  They have witnessed the gradual improvement in literally every aspect of his game, the detailed refinement of his throwing mechanics, his leadership and his relentless drive to get better.  Even if his growth wasn't always showing in the stat sheet, most of us could see it with our eyes each week.  These were things we never witnessed with JP Losman, or Trent Edwards, or EJ Manuel, or any other young guy we've drafted in the past 20 years.

 

Bills fans have been laughed at and mocked for believing in Allen - mostly by online analytics sites, draft experts refusing to break from their original assessment of him, and fans who have only seen him play 2-3 times.  We kept saying that if the Bills surrounded him with some talent on offense, it was just a matter of time before things took off.  It feels good for the rest of the NFL world to finally see it too.

 

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I hated the pick. I wanted Rosen. I was devastated when they said "Allen" instead of "Rosen". Especially how well Beane had worked the plan to get to #7 to get a QB without mortgaging the future. It was masterful. And then the picked... ALLEN???!?!?!? I couldn't believe it. I said to myself, "typical Bills."  But I'll say, I realized I was wrong pretty quick. I was in Allen's corner not long after he took over the starting job. The performance he had as a rookie in Minnesota against a FAR superior Vikings team sealed it for me. It showed that while raw, the talent was there. It all came down to how they could develop that raw talent into pro-level talent. And watching his progression has been absolutely incredible. 

I went from hating the pick, to owning a Josh Allen jersey before the start of his 2nd year.

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14 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Kind of disagree.  The numbers may have been misleading in projecting failure - but that doesn’t mean it was reasonable to predict success.  The fact that he was in a bad offense with no playmakers might explain why his numbers were bad, but it still leaves you with very little to project that he’d be great (or even mediocre) with a better supporting cast.

 

My issue with the pick at the time was the fact that the Bills as an organization did not have a history of developing outliers, and certainly did not seem set up to do so Josh’s rookie year (no real QB coach, no vet QB to learn behind, no receivers or offensive line).  Given the state of the roster and coaching staff, and the team’s horrible player development record going back two decades at that point, I didn’t want them taking “projects” or “risks” - I wanted them to pick someone who could run the offense quickly and cerebrally to make up for the lack of weapons.  I was worried they’d ruin a project like Josh and we’d be back to drafting another QB a few years later.

 

They - more specifically Josh - proved me wrong.  It’s simply amazing to think about the situation he was put in his first season (Peterman, no weapons, etc.) and the fact he persevered and developed is a true testament to his unique football character.  It’s a great story and I love watching the guy play every week, I wouldn’t trade him for any other QB.

DING DING. There are a few guys that have bad numbers but can improve and become great with a change in circumstance. But there are a lot more guys that have bad numbers because...they are bad. Its not easy to sort out which side a guy will land on.

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I was wrong as well. I wanted Darnold and at the time I hated that the Jets made that trade with the Colts to move up to #3 when they gave up 3 second round picks. I think the Colts are winning that trade now. Happy that Allen is the Bills QB. He has really improved here in year 3. It's only two games but it looks like the Bills finally have a franchise QB since the days of Kelly.

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2 minutes ago, McBean said:

Allen was number 1 on my board and I knew he would be a superstar long before anybody.

 

 

 

jk I hated the pick and loving the crow

 

Once the pick was in I was on board 

 

He was my second choice after Baker but once drafted he is our guy and i billieved Beane knew what he was doing.

 

I thought Rosen was entitled,Darnold  a USC JAG and Lamar Tyrod V2(I was right on 2 of the 3)

1 minute ago, teef said:

jesus...get it together.  

 

He is one of those "we don't deserve anything nice guys " the Bills always fail....that was the previous 17 years its a new regime now.

 

We can and do have nice things :)

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11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

I WAS WRONG ABOUT JOSH ALLEN.  I'll be having that crow now. 

 

 Kudos to you for owning your error in judgement. There are many here that can't and still don't, and continue to look JA with skepticism. All players have good days and bad ones, but I think, as you said.... he is legit.

 I personally reserved judgement after he was drafted and just hoped for the best. He had his flaws for sure, but his potential upside was huge to say the least. I love the game of football, but I have no business trying to evaluate a college players potential so I leave it to the pros and just sit on my couch glued to my TV eating my popcorn like i'm watching a death match to see how it all plays out.  

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After the draft, and his first season, I had been optimistic that Josh could be really good "someday"...that they could coach out his worst habits, add a surrounding cast in the receiver corps; o-line etc, and maybe he could rise to his potential, which was clearly there.  But lots of young QB's have potential that never consistently develops, so you never know.

 

Then the T'giving game vs. Dallas happened.  I have never doubted his draft selection since that game.

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Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I will soon..can't run from this schedule like last year. He'll either prove to be our guy or prove not to be.

 

On the plus side there are no "real" road games (no crowd noise) but unfortunately no "real" home games either. That sucks for teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers who have strong homefield advantages.

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I was, I think in the rare column, in that I thought Lamar would be the best QB of that bunch, and could be really special....and thought Allen was trash.

 

Now I know that I was dead right about Lamar but dead wrong about Allen, and I too am VERY HAPPY TO EAT MY CROW 

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Oh man, if everyone who was wrong about Allen starts a thread about it, the first 5 pages on TBD will be filled with mea culpas.

 

The thing I am curious about is how many of the so called experts in the media who slammed Josh out of college, and took every opportunity to point out every one of his mistakes and say "I told you so", will ever actually admit they are wrong.  I think they will keep using disclaimers to begrudgingly compliment him, all the while waiting for the next bad game to say "I was right after all".

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5 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Then maybe you should be thanking “people like me”.  Lol

 

But in all seriousness, your point about Allen taking a 2 win team to bowl games falls on deaf ears when you realize it didn’t happen because of superior QB play, but rather because he just happened to be the best “athlete” on the field in a very minimally talented conference- kinda like me in Little League...lol

 

And that’s ok...Anyone you talk to (except for yourself) of course, will tell you that Josh is an outlier, if he ends up working out long term...His pre NFL numbers did not project success as a pro- and that’s just the truth of the matter...it does not make people bad people or “full of BS”, as you like to put it, just because you can’t, emotionally, handle differing opinions based on statistical trends...but, best of luck to you...👍

 

 

 

You are full of BS because you said he didn't prove anything at any level.  I told you he proved himself enough to be the 7th overall draft pick AT THE QB POSITION.  Now look at you, after two years of trashing the kid and stating he never proved anything at any level, all of a sudden now you want to be a believer; how convenient!  People like you have doubted him all his life and he just keeps on persevering.  

 

 

Picture2.jpg

Edited by Lieutenant Aldo Raine
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17 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

You are full of BS because you said he didn't prove anything at any level.  I told you he proved himself enough to be the 7th overall draft pick AT THE QB POSITION.  Now look at you, after two years of trashing the kid and stating he never proved anything at any level, all of a sudden now you want to be a believer; how convenient!  People like you have doubted him all his life and he just keeps on persevering.  

 

 

Picture2.jpg

Respect is earned, not blindly given...Allen was a bottom 3rd of the league passer last year...Now, if you want to respect that, that is your prerogative...I tend to have a higher standard...and I don’t give out participation trophies...

 

BTW, love the arts and crafts project...👍

Edited by JaCrispy
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seems there were many doubters and some still may remain but the fact of the matter is, he has and continues to get better. seen some improvement last season yet still there were questions about his deep ball.

 

this play here, should of made billevers out of some of those doubters. drop in the bucket.

 

 

 

I believe the kid really is going to be something special, man.

Edited by XXI~PsychedelicBillsfan~
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1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

Respect is earned, not blindly given...Allen was a bottom 3rd of the league passer last year...Now, if you want to respect that, that is your prerogative...I tend to have a higher standard...and I don’t give out participation trophies...👍

 

So first you stated he has proved nothing at any level, and how you stated up until these past two games; you had no respect for the kid, his play, or progression.  Like I said, he's had doubters like you all his life.  Last thing I think Allen needs is your so-called respect!

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2 minutes ago, XXI~PsychedelicBillsfan~ said:

seems there were many doubters and some still may remain but the fact of the matter is, he has and continues to get better. seen some improvement last season yet still there were questions about his deep ball.

 

this play here, should of made some billevers out of some. drop in the bucket.

 

 

 

I believe the kid really is going to be something special, man.

 I was texting my son during the game.  As this play happened all I could text was "omg, omg, omg".  That play has been missing in Bills offense for two decades.  The pure joy I felt from that play was indescribable.

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12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This was me too. I was wrong. Josh was the guy (outside of Lamar). 

 

i was totally wrong about that QB class.  The last two I wanted, in order, were Lamar and then Allen.  

 

That said, I REALLY wanted Wilson in 2012, so there's that 

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37 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

So first you stated he has proved nothing at any level, and how you stated up until these past two games; you had no respect for the kid, his play, or progression.  Like I said, he's had doubters like you all his life.  Last thing I think Allen needs is your so-called respect!

Cool story, bro...but nobody cares...

 

We’re all Bills fans and want what’s best for the team...so, you can go on your phony virtue signaling tour, as you try to rehash the way that most of the fan base felt in years passed...but nobody cares...

 

Why? Because right now, Josh Allen is playing lights out, and in this moment, all of Bills nation is “over the moon” as we ride this wave...and there ain’t nothing that you or anyone else can do to bring us down! 👍

Edited by JaCrispy
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