Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Ridiculous, isn't it?

Yeah dude.  Clearly I expected the guy who is a 56% passer and has never been above 60% on any level of football to be a 69% passer all of a sudden!!! My massive hands hit a 9 instead of 0!!! I wish I hate petite fingers like some of you.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

LOL; did you just raise the bar to 69%!   You just straight up hate the dude point blank!  

 

How simple are some of you.  If you question a guy as a franchise qb, you “hate” him.  Some of you should watch other teams.  They routinely pass for over 200 yards!!! The complete more than 60% of their passes!!! They score more than 19 points a game!!! It’s wild stuff.

 

i hate bad qb play.  Allen is a really good dude. So was EJ, Trent, and JP kinda.  It’s moronic to say someone hates a player because they question how good they are. If we had good qb play last year, we are at worst 12-4. At worst.  I want more points and less excuses.  
 

and with that, I will wish Allen well and won’t be critical of him until the real games. I truly hope he develops into a real qb who isn’t carried by his defense and can win games with his arm.  

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

How simple are some of you.  If you question a guy as a franchise qb, you “hate” him.  Some of you should watch other teams.  They routinely pass for over 200 yards!!! The complete more than 60% of their passes!!! They score more than 19 points a game!!! It’s wild stuff.

 

i hate bad qb play.  Allen is a really good dude. So was EJ, Trent, and JP kinda.  It’s moronic to say someone hates a player because they question how good they are. If we had good qb play last year, we are at worst 12-4. At worst.  I want more points and less excuses.  
 

and with that, I will wish Allen well and won’t be critical of him until the real games. I truly hope he develops into a real qb who isn’t carried by his defense and can win games with his arm.  

I’ve asked you this several times, but you always never answer.  You bit-** about the 19 pts per game yet never put any onus on the PATHETIC output of our RBs.  In two years (32 games),  8 rushing TDs combined by our RBs.  Josh has 17, that’s 2:1 by our QB!  You want more pts, maybe start there!

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

I would focus on this. If our offense can’t be really good (much better than really bad in 2019) by basically giving your 2 year QB another offseason (third year), he probably isn’t a very good QB. At the very least, I think he needs to be able to take, what I would call an average supporting in the NFL (2019) and pull them out of the basement. If another player can help improve those chances great. But he’s still got to do it. 

 

Or Daboll isn't that good. He's never shown that he can field a top 10 offense in the past, if I'm not mistaken. He hasn't had much to work with, but we can't say he's a good coordinator just because he hasn't had talent to work with. He has a lot to prove this year too.

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

We can’t look at them like they are just chess pieces. We are not just adding a rook to the board (replacing a less capable rook).  They are people. Many of them are developing young players. If Knox and Ford make big jumps we look like a different team. Josh is expected to continue to improve to some degree. I’m sure he’ll be better, and I hope we get to see it for a full season. 

 

It’s not about adding a single player. It’s about developing a team. I love McD and our front office. 

That's the hope. Yeah, we think those guys will get better, but sometimes players don't. And sometimes they get worse. Everyone thought Baker Mayfield was going to have a monster season and he ended up looking pretty bad.

 

But yeah, I have faith in McDermott and Beane. I have faith in what they are building. We just haven't seen the offense perform consistently at even an average level yet. I sure hope this is the season they put it together.

[MJS]

56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

How simple are some of you.  If you question a guy as a franchise qb, you “hate” him.  Some of you should watch other teams.  They routinely pass for over 200 yards!!! The complete more than 60% of their passes!!! They score more than 19 points a game!!! It’s wild stuff.

 

i hate bad qb play.  Allen is a really good dude. So was EJ, Trent, and JP kinda.  It’s moronic to say someone hates a player because they question how good they are. If we had good qb play last year, we are at worst 12-4. At worst.  I want more points and less excuses.  
 

and with that, I will wish Allen well and won’t be critical of him until the real games. I truly hope he develops into a real qb who isn’t carried by his defense and can win games with his arm.  

You are just not a fun person to have around. You can argue these same points without being such a constant prick, you know.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?

 

What say you? Thoughts? In your opinion is it truly make or break for Josh this year?

 

 

I don't think it is. Or rather, only by the folks who feel important when they put that label on people.

 

It's not make or break.

 

But it is an important season. And if we don't see significant improvement it will make it less likely that he turns into a franchise guy. Less likely, but certainly not impossible, so it's not make or break.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

If Allen can't get the offense out of the basement this year then it's pretty unlikely he's going to...History isn't kind to QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years. 

 

 

 

I would disagree. Throw in the word "some," and it gets defensible. History isn't kind to some QBs who ...  OK, fair enough. You could even raise that up to "most."

 

But history's been pretty kind to Eli Manning and Drew Brees, for two. And there are more. Some guys take a bit longer than average to develop. Others are just bad because they're not good. 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Exactly. This is why I didn't want Allen. Even if he reaches his ceiling how many years will it take? 

 

This thread is a good example of why it's a bad idea to take project QB. The OP wants to give him more time, ok but we are wasting a pretty good defense while we wait for the offense to catch up. 

 

Then once he is good(hopefully) he is paid over 30 million dollars a year making it hard to keep talent around him. Will the excuses be back then?

 

If we had Mahomes, Watson, or Jackson (in the right system) last year we are super bowl contenders with our defense. 

 

 

No, this thread is by no means showing why it's a bad idea to take a project QB. By no means. By that logic it would be OK to have taken Rosen (full disclosure: I liked all four of the top four, and Rosen more than Allen, but I did think Allen deserved to be taken early and might be a good pick.) because after all, Rosen was not a project QB.

 

It's a bad idea to take a project QB ... who doesn't work out. Or for that matter, a pro-ready QB who doesn't work out. Anyone, really, who doesn't work out, that's who you don't want. 

 

Anyone who works out, anyone, is a really really good pick. Among successful QBs is it better to get one who develops faster? Sure. But that's much less important than simply getting a good one..

[oldmanfan]

He improved from year one to year two.  There is no reason to think there won’t be continued improvement from year two to year three.  The idea that it’s make or break is silly.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

With a SB quality team, some guy had 63, 62 and 60 comp % in his first 3 seasons

In 2019 that guy he had completed 60.8% 

 

The other "not worthy" guy had 58.8 comp % in 2019.

In year 1, he had Zay Jones and Robert Foster @ WR.  He also had 2 slouch performers in Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay

In year 2, he had Brown and Jones and the #s went up, but neither were identified as a true #1 WR.

Year 3 he has the tools.  

 

Expect the comp % to go up.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Watson is no worse than the 3rd best QB in the conference. Putting him in the same group as the others is silly.

 

Obviously. This board likes to pretend that is not the case though. If Josh's first two years had been close to Watson's the same people would be crowning him. It is what it is.

 

As for the others - this isn't make or break for Darnold because the Jets are no darn good. While I agree it isn't really "make or break" for Josh and Baker either, in the sense that they are not going to be cut or benched if they don't improve (so long obviously as they don't significantly regress) it is a much bigger year for both because the Bills and Browns have rosters that are ready to compete now. Both have playoff talent. Both should at least make the post-season and both should be looking to make runs once they get there. If either doesn't then the chance are that Quarterback play is a big part of the reason why.

[HOUSE]

NATE WILL BE BACK...

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by HOUSE

[H2o]

I wouldn't say it's absolutely make or break, but you look for growth and maturation from your QB. He needs to be less careless with the ball, running and throwing (at times). He needs to trust his reads and throw his man open. He needs to continue to put air under those deep passes like he was towards the end of the season last year because that's when he was connecting. Sometimes he still gets happy feet in the pocket and looks for a lane to take off when he actually has a man open. You look for improvement in these areas. He's going into year 3 in the same offense, year 3 as a starter. You look for the game to slow down for him even more. I fully expect for this to happen so I'm not worried about Josh whatsoever. He will put up between 3,800-4,200 yards passing, 30-35 passing TD's, a 62% or better completion rate, 500-600 yards rushing, and 5-8 rushing TD's. It's going to be stellar year for the young man. 

[eball]

OP, here’s your not-so-simple answer.

 

Those who panned the Allen pick and believed he would be a bust will answer “yes” because if Allen doesn’t light it up they’ll feel vindicated.

 

Those who have recognized how raw Allen was coming into the league will answer “sort of” because we all need to see him take the proverbial “next step” but we also don’t think he has to suddenly become a superstar in order to justify his continued progression with the team.

 

Allen will always be polarizing because of the wide disparity in how he was scouted/evaluated — the analytics crowd can’t comprehend that perhaps their analysis was flawed (or incomplete).

[Bill from NYC]

I thought since day 1, and still think that Allen is a mega talented player. I know what a great runner he is, but I wish that he would curtail the running, at least to some degree.

The last thing I want to see is JA get hurt. If he stays healthy, I predict a long, highly successful career for this kid.

 

[BarleyNY]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

I checked out their forum and they are spinning so hard on Perriman, Mims, Crowder and Herndon that even I thought for a second, dang... those dudes might actually be good.  
 

I actually do like Crowder and think Herndon has upside.   I also like the idea of tall, fast WR’s - until I remembered Perriman has all of 4 good games in his career and Mims is a rookie. 
 

That OL is what will make or break Sam this year.  He’s always been a guy who makes bad decisions under pressure and that doesn’t seem to be changing through his first two years.  
 

 

Agreed.  Darnold’s biggest issue coming into the league was turnovers.  The Jest really haven’t done a lot to help him there.  That OL is shaky.  McGovern and Van Roten should be fine, but Becton is really it after that.  I don’t think he’s a sure thing by any stretch, but even if he works out they’re still fielding a LG and a RT that are back up level IMO.  As soon as one of them gets tossed into the legs of one of the good three and takes him out for the season that line is going to fall apart.  And Darnold is going to go with them.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

Or Daboll isn't that good. He's never shown that he can field a top 10 offense in the past, if I'm not mistaken. He hasn't had much to work with, but we can't say he's a good coordinator just because he hasn't had talent to work with. He has a lot to prove this year too.

 

 

Daboll does have a lot to prove.... but so does Josh. If the offense continues to be bottom half in 2020 Daboll will be fired. If it then continues to be bottom half under a new coordinator in 2021 the Bills have to draft another Quarterback. Personally, I think it will be top half in 2020 and this won't be an issue but if it isn't I am very sceptical that a coordinator change is suddenly going to unlock something in Josh. It might. But that's a long shot IMO. If Josh plateaus or regresses this season (again, I am not expecting him to) then I think it is likely he isn't the guy.

[BigBuff423]

To me, this isn't a "make or break" season for Josh Allen, but it is the year when we should all expect significant strides toward demonstrating he CAN become the long-term Franchise QB that leaves no doubt for any person for the next 10 years. He doesn't have to have an MVP season, although he has the talent for it, and he doesn't have to win a Super Bowl, but he DOES have to leave all doubters at the door by showing his productivity and efficiency in leading a capable Offense. 

 

Josh's accuracy was the biggest detraction coming into the NFL and his Rookie year showed that to be a wise criticism, albeit over-blown in my mind given the lack of receivers. His second year was markedly improved and still led the league in drops, meaning THIS year is when we expect all of the pieces to come together and for his talent, hard work, charisma, and dogged pursuit of excellence to show out on the field. 

 

To me, it would take a year where Josh Allen reverts to his Rookie season or the first three games of last year for people to start to question if he's got "it". But more than hoping for "good enough" I think this is when we should expect he puts it all together and displays his truest QB self and demonstrates he can and will be the Buffalo Bills' QB for the next decade without question. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

To me, it would take a year where Josh Allen reverts to his Rookie season or the first three games of last year for people to start to question if he's got "it". But more than hoping for "good enough" I think this is when we should expect he puts it all together and displays his truest QB self and demonstrates he can and will be the Buffalo Bills' QB for the next decade without question. 

 

See I think this is mad because to me the first 3 games of last season were three of his best as a Bill.

[BigBuff423]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think this is mad because to me the first 3 games of last season were three of his best as a Bill.

 

To each is own, but 3 INT in the Pats game will take many people off the grid with that argument. I'm sure you see the redeeming qualities but it felt like he turned a corner after that game. I said it in a thread back then and I'll say it here: I think he had a Brady moment. Going back to when Nate Clement took Brady's head off running down the sidelines, Brady was a very different player immediately after that Bills game and the numbers supported his renewed focus and improved decision making. It was as if the hit knocked some sense into him and made him realize the importance of quick and precise passes more than what a coach could say or do. 

 

Josh Allen seemed to make drastic improvements right after that game and getting through the concussion protocol. His INTs went way down, his passing improved overall and his decision making - until the Houston game which IMO was more about situational maturity - got much better. However, obviously that's just my perspective and I'm sure someone who gives as much thought and consideration to the game of football and the Bills specifically has a well-articulated point to make. 

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

69%?!?!?!?

 

Besides it being a "nice" number ?, that is a ludicrous demand.

 

Only 5 QBs were at 69% or higher last season. Drew Brees (74.3), Derek Carr (70.4), Ryan Tannehill (70.3), Kirk Cousins (69.1), Jimmy Garappolo (69.1).

 

You can have Carr and Tannehill. They make that list just because they always check down and never make anything happen themselves. You can keep that Trent Edwards garbage. On 3rd and Long, he better not check down to a covered RB just to keep his percentage up.

 

Completion percentage, in a vacuum, is a worthless stat. Josh finished dead last in completion percentage last year, but I wouldnt say he was anywhere near the worst QB in the league.

 

Agreed on more yards and DEFINITELY more points.

Well it’s obvious that the only franchise QB’s in the NFL are Tannehill, Carr, Brees, Carr and Jimmy G.  All the rest are replaceable.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Diggs is an important piece and I don't think it's easy to quantify how a true #1 can have a cascading effect on the rest of the offense. 

 

It's a make or break year for Allen because:

 

- This is about as good of supporting cast on offense as you can expect (to be clear, not saying they're great or amazing, but year in / year out you can't expect much better) so if he can't do it with these guys...then he's not going to be able to do it most years

- QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years generally don't go on to become 'good' QBs

- Continuity on offense

- A clear and fixable problem (deep ball) that could change the entire offense (defenses have to back up and open up more allowing easier reads)

- Diggs, even if he only meets lower expectations here, is a game changer. His abilities line up in this offense and Allen's problem areas. He pushes two very good receivers down the depth chart into roles they should be able to flourish in as well.

- If he can't read defenses or continues to struggle under pressure that's not likely en 'experience' issue any more

 

If Allen can't get the offense out of the basement this year then it's pretty unlikely he's going to...History isn't kind to QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years. 

 

I say all of this as a huge Allen fan. He's a gamer and I love his mentality, but he's got to show he can take an offense to the middle of the pack in the NFL.

 

Just to put a finer point on the bolded text, by 2022 the Bills will be paying Allen very, very large if he’s still here.  Right now the Bills have the relative luxury of a QB on a rookie deal and can spend more freely elsewhere.  In two seasons that won’t be the case and Allen will have to carry more weight for the Bills to be successful.

So is 2020 make or break for him?  No, but it’s getting very, very close to it.  It’s the season that will determine if he gets his very expensive, fully guaranteed fifth year option picked up.

 

We are all looking for Allen to take a step forward this season, but I’m even more interested in something else.  I want to see him in a tough spot In the playoffs again.  He did very well during the season when games were on the line and he did well for most of the Houston playoff game.  But he folded pretty badly after his fumble.  I need to see him handle that a lot better next time around. Without that step forward almost nothing else matters, including an improvement by him during the regular season.
 

I’m going to enjoy this season.  I fully expect the Bills to make the playoffs, but it’s the 4th quarter of our next close playoff game that I’m really waiting for.  I want to see Allen (and the Bills as a whole) step up this time.  I don’t know what’ll happen, but I’m already excited for that moment. 

[JMF2006]

Only some so called fans and a few sour media types are saying this.

 

I say leave the kid alone he has enough pressure on his shoulders and all the fans need to be supporting him.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think if he has a trubiskey like 3rd year you have to at least bring in more competition beyond a 2nd year fromm and davis webb.  I don't think he is necessarily losing his job, it just becomes a priority to upgrade QB2 with a player who has more starting experience.  

[teef]

it's not a make or break year, but all of us expect him to take another step forward.  we all knew that when he was drafted, there would be a grouping of fans who just wouldn't be patient enough for josh's development to happen.  it was instant gratification or nothing.  as long as he gets better this year, i want him back next year.

[JMF2006]

I bet everyone  of these  first round QB's ( Josh. Baker, Lamar and Sam except for the wrong Josh in Miam)i gets their 5th year picked up or gets extended

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

To each is own, but 3 INT in the Pats game will take many people off the grid with that argument. I'm sure you see the redeeming qualities but it felt like he turned a corner after that game. I said it in a thread back then and I'll say it here: I think he had a Brady moment. Going back to when Nate Clement took Brady's head off running down the sidelines, Brady was a very different player immediately after that Bills game and the numbers supported his renewed focus and improved decision making. It was as if the hit knocked some sense into him and made him realize the importance of quick and precise passes more than what a coach could say or do. 

 

Josh Allen seemed to make drastic improvements right after that game and getting through the concussion protocol. His INTs went way down, his passing improved overall and his decision making - until the Houston game which IMO was more about situational maturity - got much better. However, obviously that's just my perspective and I'm sure someone who gives as much thought and consideration to the game of football and the Bills specifically has a well-articulated point to make. 

 

Patriots was week 4. I am talking about Jets, Giants and Bengals. Yes there were the crazy 4 turnovers against the Jets week 1 but a couple of those were definitely not on Josh and there was an element of bad luck involved. What I loved about those games was he was more decisive than any other 3 game stretch in his Bills career, the ball was coming out quickly and yardage per game and completion wise it was the best three game stretch of his career. I did not like the way he played, for the most part, in the 5 games immediately after the interceptions against New England because he became increasingly tentative, was holding the ball longer, not trusting his eyes and he became too conservative as the Bills tried to lock him in a straight jacket. Cleveland was the nadir of that and his worst game of the season. After that he loosened up a bit again and he for the most part ended the season well. If we want to ever unlock the potential ceiling of Josh Allen it is to get him into that week 1-3 mode. Decisive, getting the ball out, being aggressive in his decision making and taking the responsibility for moving the offense. That is his chance to be a franchise QB. He isn't ever going to get there as a top end game manager who plays safe. Too many people equate no interceptions with good decision making. And while there is a correlation it can go too far the other way. Sometimes making the good decision is making the aggressive and risky throw. As Bill Parcells (not known as a wide open, throw it all over the field coach) once said to Phil Simms "If you're not throwing picks you're not trying." Josh wasn't born to play this game in a straight jacket. He isn't ever going to be Tom Brady or Drew Brees 2.0. He might be Brett Favre 2.0 though. The Bills have to encourage him to think and play that way IMO.

[Jobot]

These articles are so old and boring.  It's make or break year until next year when it's another make or break year.. Football has more variables that go into a player or team's success than any other sport.  Just take it a game at a time.

[Kellan h]

I think as long as he makes progress relative to where he was before is whats important.  There are so many aspects of the position that he is being evaluated on that are beyond me that I will leave it to the professional judgment of the coaching staff. I don't pay attention to the glib opinions of the national media.

 

He has that innate ability to rise to the moment.  He failed in Houston but I think that will propel him to greater heights. It should not be taken lightly.

 

I think the biggest thing that really isn't talked about is that the oline was better but far from great.  It was very inconsistent. From play to play you didn't know when he would be running for his life.  A young qb needs to trust that he will have consistent protection.  I think we should be looking to see a commensurate level of improvement from the oline before we start passing judgement.

 

Finally we should remember the schedule us going to be much harder this season so we should keep that in my mind.

[Mango]

33 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I think if he has a trubiskey like 3rd year you have to at least bring in more competition beyond a 2nd year fromm and davis webb.  I don't think he is necessarily losing his job, it just becomes a priority to upgrade QB2 with a player who has more starting experience.  

 

Something to point out is, Trubisky and Allen had very similar performances for 2019. Mitch just came down from huge expectations after a very good 2018, Allen came up from a very bad year passing in 2018, so the narrative changes.  If Allen flat-lines in 2020, he would actually have two years comparable to Mitch's 2019 season that is basically running him out of Chicago. 

 

[Malazan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I would disagree. Throw in the word "some," and it gets defensible. History isn't kind to some QBs who ...  OK, fair enough. You could even raise that up to "most."

 

But history's been pretty kind to Eli Manning and Drew Brees, for two. And there are more. Some guys take a bit longer than average to develop. Others are just bad because they're not good. 

 

Yes, there are exception that prove the rule, but I wouldn't take those odds in vegas

[Buffalo Junction]

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

 

He meant 60. It was a typo.

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

Hit a 9 instead of a 0 boss.  Happy hour started early yesterday.  
 

stat benchmarks are tough because there can be a lot of variables. But 60% is the definition  of average for nfl passers.  I’d say 230 yards passing is also a good benchmark (3,680).  And the other thing I want to see is that Allen wins as a game that a league average qb couldn’t win.  I’ve seen elite moments and amazing plays.  But too many inconsistent stretches and that’s kinda who’s been his whole career so far.  IMO, I don’t think any young qb could be in a better situation for success.  
 

I wish him well because he is a good dude with elite physical tools.  But it takes more than that to be a star qb.

 

also, the offense needs to average at least 24.  Touchdowns can be fluky.  Like Allen could be a better passer but have a rb get double digits tds like Brees and Rodgers. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Buffalo Junction]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He meant 60. It was a typo.

Ah. Must have missed that. 

[Ramza86]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

It's make or break because there is enough talent on this team for a deep playoff run. If the QB is the reason they fail, then they need to find an alternative. If he is adequate but they fail then they need to decide if adequate is good enough out of the QB position. If he is great and they still fail well then we all greatly overestimated the talent on the roster. 

 

Not on the offensive line...which happens to be the most important group for the QB. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Why is this a make or break year for Allen? 

 

Simply put, because of the salary cap and rookie QB contracts. If a QB can't play at an elite level by years 3 or 4 of a rookie contract, when their team has ~25m+ to spend on the rest of the roster, they will never be able to play at an elite level. 

 

It's irrelevant if QBs 20+ years ago took longer to develop (I've seen a few people mention Brees, the Mannings, or Kelly). The game has evolved dramatically since then. 

 

The NFL changed rookie contracts in 2011 and there hasn't been a single QB drafted in the 1st round after that point that took more than a few years to develop. The only possible name is Ryan Tannehill, and I think his 2019 season was more a result of being in the perfect team situation combined with a small sample size. 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Why is this a make or break year for Allen? 

 

Simply put, because of the salary cap and rookie QB contracts. If a QB can't play at an elite level by years 3 or 4 of a rookie contract, when their team has ~25m+ to spend on the rest of the roster, they will never be able to play at an elite level. 

 

It's irrelevant if QBs 20+ years ago took longer to develop (I've seen a few people mention Brees, the Mannings, or Kelly). The game has evolved dramatically since then. 

 

The NFL changed rookie contracts in 2011 and there hasn't been a single QB drafted in the 1st round after that point that took more than a few years to develop. The only possible name is Ryan Tannehill, and I think his 2019 season was more a result of being in the perfect team situation combined with a small sample size. 

 

I think In today’s nfl, with the rules to help qbs so much, you kinda know what you have by year three.  In the last 10 years, how many guys have turned into star qbs after struggling in year 3?  Like if Allen doesn’t hit over 60 (not 69, though it’s nice), it is clearly a major issue that he might not overcome.  
 

there aren’t many holes on this team right (except backup QB ?).  Non Bills fans see a good team with a question mark at qb. Not taking shots but that’s how it is.  If Allen is a legit franchise qb, the roof is the ceiling! If he’s not, he just another young qb who was propped up a good team.  

[Buffalo Junction]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Hit a 9 instead of a 0 boss.  Happy hour started early yesterday.  
 

stat benchmarks are tough because there can be a lot of variables. But 60% is the definition  of average for nfl passers.  I’d say 230 yards passing is also a good benchmark (3,680).  And the other thing I want to see is that Allen wins as a game that a league average qb couldn’t win.  I’ve seen elite moments and amazing plays.  But too many inconsistent stretches and that’s kinda who’s been his whole career so far.  IMO, I don’t think any young qb could be in a better situation for success.  
 

I wish him well because he is a good dude with elite physical tools.  But it takes more than that to be a star qb.

Doesn’t help that I’m reading the thread with a hangover. ?. 
 

I’m not a huge stat guy for Allen because he’s a gunslinger by nature and he started so far behind the curve. I used Rivers as a comparison because there are similarities in how they approach(ed) passing as both seem to be strongest at intermediate throws... Particularly turning 3rd and long into 1st downs. Limiting mistakes is going to be the biggest indicator, and I think stats will add up if Allen can cut back the turnovers. I expect him to go through the first half of his career with a lower than average completion percentage and a higher than average yards per completion since that’s sort of the gunslinger MO. As long as he improves on the mistakes and becomes consistent he will become a franchise QB. I still want to see him take over and dominate a game against a team other than Miami though. 

[Doc]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah dude.  Clearly I expected the guy who is a 56% passer and has never been above 60% on any level of football to be a 69% passer all of a sudden!!! My massive hands hit a 9 instead of 0!!! I wish I hate petite fingers like some of you.

 

Who knows with you, CB.  You keep harping on his completion percentage and then tout someone like Newton who has had 2 seasons out of 9 above 60% (and his highest completion rate season saw him go 6-8).  But if it was an honest mistake, I can accept that.