Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

Barring a turnover, first drive against the Jets is a touchdown.

We go from there.

 

Very granular. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Nobody on this board maybe. But plenty of fans for each team would say the same thing about Mayfield and Darnold. Although, the argument there is that they haven't been surrounded with the coaching or talent that Josh has (coaching Mayfield's case, coaching and talent in Darnold's).

 

I don't know that anyone is expecting perfection from Josh this year, but he needs to show steady improvement. Not sure I'd throw him out if he looked exactly the same as last year. He just cant regress.

 

That said, if he shows the same amount of improvement this year as he did last year, we have our franchise QB.

 

Good post IMHO. 

 

Baker had a decent rookie season where he hit a lot of base metrics one looks for in a potential franchise guy QB - completion 63.8%, TD/INT 1.9, 7.7 ypa, 266 ypg

Those are all indicators of QB play one can win with, given a decent D

 

Josh took a nice step last year, but generally speaking one wants to see >60% completions and >200, even >250 ypg from a franchise type QB.

This year, they've added pieces at WR and RB and expect him to show he can take advantage of them.

[stinky finger]

 

Lead the league in wins.

 

Wins is what he'll be judged by. Nothing else.

 

 

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Good post IMHO. 

 

Baker had a decent rookie season where he hit a lot of base metrics one looks for in a potential franchise guy QB - completion 63.8%, TD/INT 1.9, 7.7 ypa, 266 ypg

Those are all indicators of QB play one can win with, given a decent D

 

Josh took a nice step last year, but generally speaking one wants to see >60% completions and >200, even >250 ypg from a franchise type QB.

This year, they've added pieces at WR and RB and expect him to show he can take advantage of them.

 

What about Mayfield's 2nd season?  It was far worse than his rookie season with far better weapons and a year under his belt.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

Oh, now he has to complete 69%? Ok...

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.

I almost disagree with everything you said.  
 

Adding a Top 10 caliber WR isn’t just a roster move... it’s a major addition.  Everyone talks about Baker’s weapons, but take away Odell and your #1 is Landry - ain’t nobody scared of that.   Now add Odell and make Landry the #2, that’s a problem.  
 

Our OL was in its first year together, with a rookie RT.  Rookie tackles typically struggle and Ford was certainly no exception. We return 4/5 starters, Center-Left is pretty good and Ford is no longer a rookie. 

 

I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on rookies either... except maybe RB.  RB’s adjust quicker than any other position and can usually make a difference right out the gate - Look no further than Singletary last year.  I’m sure the Chiefs are counting on CEH.  
 

Tight Ends typically take some time to make an impact.  It should be expected that Knox will make somewhat of a jump.  
 

Every team has to count on presumptions in how players will play, every year.  I think we have reason to believe, at the very least: experience, a true #1 and non-corpse of a #2 RB will be a solid upgrade across the board.   
 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by SCBills

[Locomark]

 He  would have to fall off a cliff for this to be a “ break year “ and to go out and invest in another QB. 

He had significantly less playing time in college than both Mahomes and Jackson. Add that to the weak conference he was in and that reality is he is 1 year developmentally behind the others. So I think he does have an opportunity to grow more than your typical 3rd year guy. I think part of that is the homer In me but part of it is the logic of what I noticed over every 4 game increment over the last few years. Add the stability of the players and system from last year and I think he grows a lot this year. Next year he will be expected to be a full blown no mistake high effective QB. I fully expect 63% completion rate this year and an improved QBR.

 

I think his Achilles heal last year. that no one is talking about, is the high amount of penalties on offense and the fact that we were often in long down and distance situations which is always bad for QB effectiveness. Fix that and we have ourselves better play balance, better completion %, and more points conceptually. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Locomark

[MJS]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

I almost disagree with everything you said.  
 

Adding a Top 10 caliber WR isn’t just a roster move... it’s a major addition.  Everyone talks about Baker’s weapons, but take away Odell and your #1 is Landry - ain’t nobody scared of that.   Now add Odell and make Landry the #2, that’s a problem.  
 

Our OL was in its first year together, with a rookie RT.  Rookie tackles typically struggle and Ford was certainly no exception. We return 4/5 starters, Center-Left is pretty good and Ford is no longer a rookie. 

 

I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on rookies either... except maybe RB.  RB’s have adjust quicker than any other position and can usually make a difference right out the gate - Look no further than Singletary last year.  I’m sure the Chiefs are counting on CEH.  
 

Tight Ends typically take some time to make an impact.  It should be expected that Knox will make somewhat of a jump.  
 

Every team has to count on presumptions in how players will play, every year.  I think we have reason to believe, at the very least: experience, a true #1 and non-corpse of a #2 RB will big a solid upgrade across the board.  

 

All of that assuming Daboll is a good offensive coordinator and can use the pieces well, which is not a given.

 

And what does that mean to you? Do we have a top 10 offense? How many more points per game will we get?

 

Last year we were 24th in yards and 23rd in points per game at 19.6. Top 10 last year would have been at least 25.1 points a game.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

The Bills are pretty similar to last year except for Diggs. The oline is still below average, in my opinion.

 

Now, maybe Diggs makes the huge difference that we all hope he does. That's totally possible and maybe even likely. But people are saying the Bills now have loads of talent around Allen on offense and really what they mean is we now have Diggs. That's the only difference.

 

I expect that our offense will still have growing pains. And I'm not convinced Daboll is that good of an OC yet, anyways. The jury is still out on him.

 

Can our offense be really good with basically only one different player? I guess we'll see.

 

Or an alternate way to view it is the 2020 offense position vs 2019 with assessment of talent:

     WR1 better Diggs > Brown  (significant upgrade)  now WR1 is excellent, was average

     WR2 better Brown > Beasley  (decent upgrade)    now WR2 is very good, was average

     WR3 better Beasley > ?Duke    (huge upgrade)      now WR2 is good, was terrible

     RBs better Singletary/Moss > Singletary/Gore  (significant upgrade because Gore stunk and couldn't convert short yardage)  now good, was average

     TE  better  2nd yr Knox > 1st yr Knox  (could be decent upgrade if hands improve as expected - biggest improvement from yr 1 to yr 2)  now decent was below avg

     OL better  OL in 2nd yr together > OL in first yr together  (continuity is significant in OL and biggest improvement from yr 1 to yr 2)  now slightly above avg, was avg

     QB 3rd yr Josh > 2nd yr Josh  (normal progression but it gets magnified because all the pieces around him are better)  

 

This is why some people (including myself) are excited and expecting a jump in the Offense.  And it is possible that Josh only incrementally improves but with all the improvements at the other positions the stats could skyrocket.  The benefits of being a decent QB in a good system (Dak-like)

    

 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

FWIW 5th year options are only guaranteed for injury but your point is well taken.

The new CBA changed 5th year options to fully guaranteeing at the time the clause is executed.  The first season that goes into effect is next season so Allen’s option year would be fully guaranteed immediately. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

 

69%?!?!?!?

 

Besides it being a "nice" number ?, that is a ludicrous demand.

 

Only 5 QBs were at 69% or higher last season. Drew Brees (74.3), Derek Carr (70.4), Ryan Tannehill (70.3), Kirk Cousins (69.1), Jimmy Garappolo (69.1).

 

You can have Carr and Tannehill. They make that list just because they always check down and never make anything happen themselves. You can keep that Trent Edwards garbage. On 3rd and Long, he better not check down to a covered RB just to keep his percentage up.

 

Completion percentage, in a vacuum, is a worthless stat. Josh finished dead last in completion percentage last year, but I wouldnt say he was anywhere near the worst QB in the league.

 

Agreed on more yards and DEFINITELY more points.

[SCBills]

15 minutes ago, MJS said:

All of that assuming Daboll is a good offensive coordinator and can use the pieces well, which is not a given.

 

And what does that mean to you? Do we have a top 10 offense? How many more points per game will we get?

 

Last year we were 24th in yards and 23rd in points per game at 19.6. Top 10 last year would have been at least 25.1 points a game.

I think we have the potential to field a Top 10 Offense, and should be middle of the pack on the lower end of the expectation scale.  
 

We drafted Allen to be able to score from anywhere.  We’ve now surrounded him with big play guys and two legitimate RB’s. If (big if) he figures out the deep ball, given how strong he makes us in the red zone to begin with, I think we’ll see a big jump in numbers. 
 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by SCBills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

What about Mayfield's 2nd season?  It was far worse than his rookie season with far better weapons and a year under his belt.

 

Oh, For Sure.  But he has shown he has "done it once" so the idea is if he's given better coaching etc he can "do it again".

[Fr. Jerk]

Yes it is.

 

Cause that's like how it works. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Paulus said:

Darnold is getting screwed by the Jets. 

Big time.  I don’t know what he had a chance to be, but he’s going to be completely ruined as a QB when the Jest are done with him. 

[DrDawkinstein]

May 3, 2021.

 

That is the date the Bills must make their decision on Josh's 5th year option.

 

 

[SCBills]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Big time.  I don’t know what he had a chance to be, but he’s going to be completely ruined as a QB when the Jest are done with him. 

I checked out their forum and they are spinning so hard on Perriman, Mims, Crowder and Herndon that even I thought for a second, dang... those dudes might actually be good.  
 

I actually do like Crowder and think Herndon has upside.   I also like the idea of tall, fast WR’s - until I remembered Perriman has all of 4 good games in his career and Mims is a rookie. 
 

That OL is what will make or break Sam this year.  He’s always been a guy who makes bad decisions under pressure and that doesn’t seem to be changing through his first two years.  
 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by SCBills

[Cruiserplayer]

There will still be some flaws that posters will point to but this is gonna be Josh’s Make year. 

[MJS]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think we have the potential to field a Top 10 Offense, and should be middle of the pack on the lower end of the expectation scale.  
 

We drafted Allen to be able to score from anywhere.  We’ve now surrounded him with big play guys and two legitimate RB’s. If (big if) he figures out the deep ball, given how strong he makes us in the red zone to begin with, I think we’ll see a big jump in numbers. 

Ok. I think they could be top 10 on the very high side and like 20th on the low side. But I expect them to be more middle of the pack, which is a huge upgrade from last year, honestly.

 

As I've said, I think our offensive line is below average and unfortunately our playoff game illustrated to the rest of the league that they can get to Allen almost immediately if they rush him. He had multiple defenders in his face unblocked on almost every key down in the 2nd half. We have a lot of good depth on the line, but a couple below average starters.

 

The question is, will fans be happy with an average offense, or are they going to be angry if we aren't top 10? With all the hype the offense is getting, it seems like fans will be disappointed with an average offense even though average is a huge improvement.

[ProcessAccepted]

2 hours ago, klos63 said:

probably more after year 4.

I think serious conversations start after year 3. It doesn't mean that its a done deal but if an organization loses confidence they need to plan for drafting their guy. Its too late to wait until after year 4 to deal with a disappointing outcome especially after you've assembled all the other elements of the team (like we have). That said, Josh is going to step up big time this year, I'm not even remotely concerned.