What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[GunnerBill]

Should just add the Dawkins extension shows that second tier level players are now willing to take a little less to be here. In years past they wanted a bit more to stay / come here. That is good news. They won't get hometown discounts off the superstars like Tre or hopefully Josh but if they can get them off the second tier guys they can be a really good team for a long time. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are misreading the market. Blake Martinez just got $10m. Milano gets more than him. 

In general this is a problem that Bills fans have. In our defense we haven’t had a lot of experience with  second contracts. With that being said we need to stop looking at a player in a vacuum through the lens of what we’d give them. We need to look at what others kind of like him got paid. That’s entirely how these contracts work.
 

It’s like buying a house. You don’t look at a house and say, “I kind of like this one. I think that I’ll put in an offer at $525k.” When Blake Martinez gets $10M the nicer house in that neighborhood doesn’t sell for $8M. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, eball said:

Exactly right. This is where we see just how much wanting to stay in Buffalo and continue playing for McDermott means. 

 

It meant enough to Dion to leave money on the table. Now of course the covid uncertainty probably plays in a bit, but Dion would have got more on the open market than 4 for 60. 

[Buddo]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are misreading the market. Blake Martinez just got $10m. Milano gets more than him. 

 

Maybe I've misread 'the market' also. I just don't see the value at $12-14 million per. Even to the Bills, where he's a terrific 'fit'.

 

I do see him as being a capable starter in pretty much any base 4-3 system, but my belief is that the Bills get the most out of him, and in respect of 'the market', it isn't just about what a.n.other guy got, it's also about what someone else is prepared to pay, and I remain unconvinced that other teams will be prepared to pay top dollar (the $12-14 million per being mentioned) for a guy who while important, is a very good complimentary piece, rather than a focal point.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

In general this is a problem that Bills fans have. In our defense we haven’t had a lot of experience with  second contracts. With that being said we need to stop looking at a player in a vacuum through the lens of what we’d give them. We need to look at what others kind of like him got paid. That’s entirely how these contracts work.
 

It’s like buying a house. You don’t look at a house and say, “I kind of like this one. I think that I’ll put in an offer at $525k.” When Blake Martinez gets $10M the nicer house in that neighborhood doesn’t sell for $8M. 

 

I am buying a house in London at the moment Kirbs you don't need to tell me that the market dictates paying more than it possibly could ever seem to be worth ?

Just now, Buddo said:

 

Maybe I've misread 'the market' also. I just don't see the value at $12-14 million per. Even to the Bills, where he's a terrific 'fit'.

 

I do see him as being a capable starter in pretty much any base 4-3 system, but my belief is that the Bills get the most out of him, and in respect of 'the market', it isn't just about what a.n.other guy got, it's also about what someone else is prepared to pay, and I remain unconvinced that other teams will be prepared to pay top dollar (the $12-14 million per being mentioned) for a guy who while important, is a very good complimentary piece, rather than a focal point.

 

The Giants just paid $10m for Blake Martinez. If you honestly watched that guy play and thought he was the focal point of Green Bay's defense then football isn't for you. Desperate GMs who need to win "now" or lose their job and with holes overpay in FA to fill them. That is the NFL. 

[billsbackto81]

I've said this before and I'll say it again.

 

If Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips can get 10 million per on the FA market then Matt Milano should get 10 mil per to stay in Buffalo. He is a more valuable piece to this defense than Phillips and Lawson ever were. Posters that are saying 7 and 8 per are delusional.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

What would/should a Milano extension look like?

 

[Buddo]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am buying a house in London at the moment Kirbs you don't need to tell me that the market dictates paying more than it possibly could ever seem to be worth ?

 

The Giants just paid $10m for Blake Martinez. If you honestly watched that guy play and thought he was the focal point of Green Bay's defense then football isn't for you. Desperate GMs who need to win "now" or lose their job and with holes overpay in FA to fill them. That is the NFL. 

 

'A' focal point, i.e. of LBers, not a whole D.

 

Tbh, I have no idea about Martinez, and don't actually care about him. On the assumption that the Giants will be running a base 4-3, then it's quite possible that as a comparison, Milano should get more, I don't know. What I do know is that making the assumption that someone will be prepared to overpay for him next year, is precisely that, an assumption.

 

There's going to be an awful lot of uncertainty for this season, and with the unprecedented reduction in the cap number for next year, I just don't see even desperate teams willing to pay over the odds.

 

Imho, if Milano signs in the not too distant, it will be for around $10 million per, however it shakes out (I don't want to get involved in the  4 or 5 year thing ). I also think that that would be fair, and currently, I'm very much of the opinion that guys would be far better off securing their future now, rather than hoping everything else that's going on, eventually turns out ok.

 

N.B. Fwiw, the laughing emoticon was in relation to the house buying in London. Good luck with that.

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am buying a house in London at the moment Kirbs you don't need to tell me that the market dictates paying more than it possibly could ever seem to be worth ?

 

The Giants just paid $10m for Blake Martinez. If you honestly watched that guy play and thought he was the focal point of Green Bay's defense then football isn't for you. Desperate GMs who need to win "now" or lose their job and with holes overpay in FA to fill them. That is the NFL. 

Giants also paid Solder to basically be terrible and get moved so I’m not gonna say they should be price makers.

 

37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

In general this is a problem that Bills fans have. In our defense we haven’t had a lot of experience with  second contracts. With that being said we need to stop looking at a player in a vacuum through the lens of what we’d give them. We need to look at what others kind of like him got paid. That’s entirely how these contracts work.
 

It’s like buying a house. You don’t look at a house and say, “I kind of like this one. I think that I’ll put in an offer at $525k.” When Blake Martinez gets $10M the nicer house in that neighborhood doesn’t sell for $8M. 

True but not doing your due diligence and overpaying for a house that has bad plumbing and electric doesn’t make the whole neighborhood more expensive.

[Orlando Tim]

32 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

I've said this before and I'll say it again.

 

If Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips can get 10 million per on the FA market then Matt Milano should get 10 mil per to stay in Buffalo. He is a more valuable piece to this defense than Phillips and Lawson ever were. Posters that are saying 7 and 8 per are delusional.

Actually I was surprised that they got paid that well but your comparison of quality of play is accurate, he also knows our system and is an asset instead of a wildcard so I am guessing he is offered at least 4 years at 10 per.

[BullBuchanan]

As a guy that loves Milano, I don't want to see them pay him any more than 6.5/7m a year. He plays hard, and has a good nose for the ball, but he isn't that talented. To me, he's the re-incarnation of John DiGiorgio.

36 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

 

Imagine being in the league 9 years and attempting 15 passes. 

[eball]

51 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

 

You were late with this joke, and besides, that’s a contract for a trick shot QB. 

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I previously advocated letting him walk assuming he would get at least 12-13m AAV but I was thinking yesterday that, considering his humble lifestyle, he may have different priorities than others and may be the type to take lower numbers to stay in a place and situation where he's happy. If it's around say $9-10m can we pass it up?

I’m not banking on a guy giving up $10m+ on his prime contract because he’s got a humble lifestyle. 

1 hour ago, Buddo said:

 

Maybe I've misread 'the market' also. I just don't see the value at $12-14 million per. Even to the Bills, where he's a terrific 'fit'.

 

I do see him as being a capable starter in pretty much any base 4-3 system, but my belief is that the Bills get the most out of him, and in respect of 'the market', it isn't just about what a.n.other guy got, it's also about what someone else is prepared to pay, and I remain unconvinced that other teams will be prepared to pay top dollar (the $12-14 million per being mentioned) for a guy who while important, is a very good complimentary piece, rather than a focal point.

that’s the thing- a good 43 OLB is nice... but doesn’t require a rare body type or other worldly athleticism. It isn’t even a 3 down position always.
 

if you find a really special guy, sure- 12-14M would be on the table. But I think we’ve just got ourselves a good hard working starter quality player. If you pay all of them, you won’t be a good team. 
 

keep drafting OLBs or plugging vets short term and spend the money elsewhere.

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Giants also paid Solder to basically be terrible and get moved so I’m not gonna say they should be price makers.

 

True but not doing your due diligence and overpaying for a house that has bad plumbing and electric doesn’t make the whole neighborhood more expensive.

 

I am not saying it would be a sensible franchise that pays him that much. But there are plenty of moribund badly run franchises with desperate GMs trying to find quick fixes to save jobs. That is the point. Milano won't get stupid money off the Bills but he would on the open market. 

[klos63]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that.

Spain was projected between $7m-$10m a year. He signed for $5M without really exploring his options. He was certainly under what was expected.

People guessed , they were wroing.i t still doesn't sound right saying we saved money when there really was no set price to begin with, just guesses.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Not one Galicia reference about “Milano’s extension”?? 

man folks here Must already be in weekend mode 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, klos63 said:

People guessed , they were wroing.i t still doesn't sound right saying we saved money when there really was no set price to begin with, just guesses.

But it’s all based on comps. There were no projections saying that Spain was going to get $5m a year coming off a season where he didn’t give up a sack. The Jets were paying Winters almost $8M a year. There is a market value that’s pretty universally accepted amongst the league and if you’re below it, it’s a win for the team. Spain absolutely got less than projected and didn’t shop his services. That happens sometimes and when a guy leaves money on the table you can use it elsewhere. Spain leaving money on the table leaves more flexibility for Milano and/or Tre.

 

It is kind of like the home buying process. No one goes to buy a house and thinks, “it might be $200K or it might be $1.6M.” You generally know roughly what it will cost. Spain went for less than anticipated. He was a foreclosure.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[purple haze]

Milano is a good player and he is extremely valuable in McD’s defense.  When he doesn’t play it is noticeable in defensive performance.  He’s probably in that $10-$12 million dollar range.  He shouldn’t Be lower than 10. I think 14 is high.

[TroutDog]

I haven’t read the entire thread so apologies if I’m being repetitive. 
 

I really appreciate what Milano brings to this team. Most importantly, it’s his game and the DNA McD speaks of: he’s got it in spades. I also suspect McD views him as his mini-Kuechly. With that being said, I suspect he’ll be paid...my only hope is he is willing to take a reasonable ‘discount‘ and ends up in the $9-$11m range. 

[custcarcen]

On 8/14/2020 at 1:46 PM, aristocrat said:

if we don't sign him and he gets big money elsewhere we get that ever important comp pick.  milano i kind of go back and forth on.  he has those moments where he just hits the hole and stuffs some rb and then he has some bonehead moments.  if we lose him i trust beane can get a solid replacement.  you can't pay everyone

 

Spot on ! There will be people that we need to let go. You have to budget well and Beane is extraordinary at it. 

 

Lookup Patriots, New England.

 

[qwksilver]

Beane is 2 for 2 in getting players (Spain & Dawkins) to leave some cash on the table. I trust he will get the same thing done here with Milano. So hopefully somewhere less than $11 million per year.

[C.Biscuit97]

I really like Milano and he’s a playmaker.  But you need to have a limit for him.  OLBs are easy to replace and I worry about him staying healthy.  Love the guy but you can’t sign everyone to max deals. 

[eball]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Love the guy but you can’t sign everyone to max deals.

 

Who has Beane signed to "max deals?"  And while you're at it, please explain what that even means.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, eball said:

 

Who has Beane signed to "max deals?"  And while you're at it, please explain what that even means.

Why are you the way that you are? Get your juice boxes ready for the team mom.   

[NewEra]

On 8/14/2020 at 6:27 AM, Victory Formation said:

Mmmmm 7-8$M annually. 4yrs $30M total.

Sounds good for both sides.  Like others have said, he’s the perfect fit in our defense.  Maybe not so much in others.  He’s a demon vs the pass but play vs the run leaves a a lot to be desired imo.  4-30 16gtd

[eball]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why are you the way that you are? Get your juice boxes ready for the team mom.   

What, can’t answer the question? 

[Stank_Nasty]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I really like Milano and he’s a playmaker.  But you need to have a limit for him.  OLBs are easy to replace and I worry about him staying healthy.  Love the guy but you can’t sign everyone to max deals. 

Other than the broken ankle, what really has there been by way of injuries? I think he’s missed 4 games in 3 years. I agree I wouldn’t go crazy on his contract but IMO I don’t think he’ll be nearly as replaceable as you say. He offers elite coverage skills at his position in a passing league.  

Edited August 16, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Other than the broken ankle, what really has their been by way of injuries? I think he’s missed 4 games in 3 years. I agree I wouldn’t go crazy on his contract but IMO I don’t think he’ll be nearly as replaceable as you say. He offers elite coverage skills at his position in a passing league.  

He fits the defense perfectly, is a playmaker, wants to be here, and doesn’t give the impression he wants to break the bank. This is exactly the type of player you extend for market value, hoping for perhaps a small hometown discount. 

[machine gun kelly]

So, sorry KJ, just saw you’re thread and good choice.  Now if you factor in his existing last year in 2020 contract with a four year $52 mil. contract which breaks down to $13 mil. for those four years.  Considering on the Dawkins marathon thread myself included, people added this year for Dawkins to his $60 mil., and divided over 5 years which is smart, instead of $15 mil. people were saying it’s actually $12.2 mil. for the average over five years.

 

Using the market value on Spotrac which they are a lot smarter than us have him valued at a $13 mil. avg./yr.  Using that logic, an avg. per year for a $52 mil. Four year is actually five years at 1.8 mil./yr. for five years.  Well that just eats out the 23rd paid linebacker Joe Schubert of Jax.  Given the highest paid LB’s are actually edge rushers, this is a very fair contract.  He’s not just average because we picked him up in the 5th round.  He has played outstanding for a weak side back, is sideline to sideline, has a nose for the ball, if he doesn’t pick them off, he’s good at breaking them up, and he is fast enough to cover athletic TE’s.

 

He and Edmunds play almost every defensive snap, and getting lucky with that pick is not easy.  He’s not just a guy.  He and Edmunds are staples to our defense.  They are young, athletic, can be in our system for a minimum of eight years or longer.  Now that is a big piece to creating and holding onto a championship defense.  White will be here we hope just as long, the young line will keep growing like Oliver, and Epenesa, and hopefully Harry.

 

So those are keys to this defense.  Besides in 2021, Poyer will be 30 and his contract is up.  He’s worth an extension although maybe shorter like three years.  Hyde is also 29 now, but we don’t have to extend until he’s 31 in 2022.  He’s also worth I’m guessing if he doesn’t drop off probably two to three years.  That really minimizes other extensions on the defense so our drafts for defense can focus on CB, DL, and probably a third LB.  I love as Beane seems like he has another five year plan for us.  On offense in the next two years we’ll need Lineman, And another TE.

[Motor26]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

So, sorry KJ, just saw you’re thread and good choice.  Now if you factor in his existing last year in 2020 contract with a four year $52 mil. contract which breaks down to $13 mil. for those four years.  Considering on the Dawkins marathon thread myself included, people added this year for Dawkins to his $60 mil., and divided over 5 years which is smart, instead of $15 mil. people were saying it’s actually $12.2 mil. for the average over five years.

 

Using the market value on Spotrac which they are a lot smarter than us have him valued at a $13 mil. avg./yr.  Using that logic, an avg. per year for a $52 mil. Four year is actually five years at 1.8 mil./yr. for five years.  Well that just eats out the 23rd paid linebacker Joe Schubert of Jax.  Given the highest paid LB’s are actually edge rushers, this is a very fair contract.  He’s not just average because we picked him up in the 5th round.  He has played outstanding for a weak side back, is sideline to sideline, has a nose for the ball, if he doesn’t pick them off, he’s good at breaking them up, and he is fast enough to cover athletic TE’s.

 

He and Edmunds play almost every defensive snap, and getting lucky with that pick is not easy.  He’s not just a guy.  He and Edmunds are staples to our defense.  They are young, athletic, can be in our system for a minimum of eight years or longer.  Now that is a big piece to creating and holding onto a championship defense.  White will be here we hope just as long, the young line will keep growing like Oliver, and Epenesa, and hopefully Harry.

 

So those are keys to this defense.  Besides in 2021, Poyer will be 30 and his contract is up.  He’s worth an extension although maybe shorter like three years.  Hyde is also 29 now, but we don’t have to extend until he’s 31 in 2022.  He’s also worth I’m guessing if he doesn’t drop off probably two to three years.  That really minimizes other extensions on the defense so our drafts for defense can focus on CB, DL, and probably a third LB.  I love as Beane seems like he has another five year plan for us.  On offense in the next two years we’ll need Lineman, And another TE.

Poyer got paid this year. I like Milano but I wouldn’t shell out 13 million a year for the guy, especially since the cap won’t be as high as we used to think.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The cap is going to go down and they have White, Hyde, Edmunds, and a free agent pass rusher to sign in the future. You let Milano walk and you trust that a player already drafted or a future draft pick can replace him.  You need players like Ford, Knox, Epenesa and future draft picks to fill out the roster.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

26 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The cap is going to go down and they have White, Hyde, Edmunds, and a free agent pass rusher to sign in the future. You let Milano walk and you trust that a player already drafted or a future draft pick can replace him.  You need players like Ford, Knox, Epenesa and future draft picks to fill out the roster.

Plenty of time before Ford, Knox, Epenesa and future picks need extensions. By that time Murphy, Hughes, Star, etc. will be off the books. 
 

At the very least franchise or transition tag Milano for a year until we know if Allen is getting big bucks. If the cap goes down those tags will also go down. 
 

Only on this board have I ever heard fans worry about the salary cap implications of extensions for future draft picks. 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

Sounds good for both sides.  Like others have said, he’s the perfect fit in our defense.  Maybe not so much in others.  He’s a demon vs the pass but play vs the run leaves a a lot to be desired imo.  4-30 16gtd

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

24 minutes ago, Chemical said:

Plenty of time before Ford, Knox, Epenesa and future picks need extensions. By that time Murphy, Hughes, Star, etc. will be off the books. 
 

At the very least franchise or transition tag Milano for a year until we know if Allen is getting big bucks. If the cap goes down those tags will also go down. 
 

Only on this board have I ever heard fans worry about the salary cap implications of extensions for future draft picks. 

That's not what I meant. I meant you need draft picks on their initial contract to fill out your team. Once you pay Allen there will be little room left. You can't sign everyone. You need to pick and choose who to let go and where you can draft replacements. Of course Milano on a team friendly deal would be great. But those dollars will add up and limit your options in the future. 

They got lucky and got a very good player at low cost. Now don't make a mistake and overpay to keep him.

28 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

At 4-60 you let him walk and get a 3rd round comp pick. Easy choice. 

Just ask what Belichick would do.  No way he pays 60 M for an undersized LB that he can replace in the draft or free agency for 1/5th the price.

[pretzel logic]

Undersized linebacker in a great scheme that he excels......I love his play and speed to the ball.....I'm in the frame of mind we cant pay everyone.....

[atlbillsfan1975]

35 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

I think you are right and I think Beane might let the season play out. McD likes his LB’ers. Always had two good one in Carolina in Davis and Keuchly. I think Milano is a tad undersized. Guys like that have a tendency to maybe get dinged up more as their career goes along. Either way I totally trust what Brandon and Sean come up with in regards to LB. V. Joseph is already on the roster, he might be Milano’s replacement. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

 For sure.  If he doesn’t improve vs the run I hope 11 per is the most we give him. He’s a decent player that looks much better thanks to McD imo.  Let someone else overpay if he’s gonna get 13-15 mill per

[heavydutyrudy]

On 8/14/2020 at 9:31 AM, Virgil said:

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

 

On 8/14/2020 at 9:31 AM, Virgil said:

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

 

On 8/14/2020 at 9:31 AM, Virgil said:

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

Love your hair Vigil, do you have matching panties?

[2ForMacAdoo]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

Sweet Jesus, if this is even close to what he's looking for, for the love of God let him walk. You can only pay a limited number of guys elite money and for me those guys are: 1) Tre'Day, 2) Tremaine and probably 3)Ed Oliver on D;   4) Josh, 5) Dion and 6) Ya DIgg on Offense.  If you give an undersized LB $15 million per, I guarantee you one of the above mentioned 6 players cannot be re-signed. 

[machine gun kelly]

8 hours ago, Motor26 said:

Poyer got paid this year. I like Milano but I wouldn’t shell out 13 million a year for the guy, especially since the cap won’t be as high as we used to think.

Motor, I must have missed the Poyer extension so thank you.  So much for google as it still had him only through 2020.  As far as Milano, just bear in mind that extra year bringing the overall total down to $10.8 Mil. for five years.