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Fauci : Football may not happen


Greg S

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4 minutes ago, spartacus said:

you hit on the obvious answer

have teams conduct their training camp as usual, with no access to family or other at risk individuals

after 6 weeks, everyone is immune and they have served their quarantine period

 

herd immunity is a good thing

 

problem is its tough to do this with non professional athletes. that is why college teams are having their kids test positive, while the premier league in England have conducted a test with ONE positive return in 1500+ tests conducted in the latest round of testing . these players are on strict guidelines and orders from their clubs on how to conduct themselves 

 

college football is not coming back for a while. they don't have the resources to handle it 

Edited by Penfield45
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6 minutes ago, spartacus said:

you hit on the obvious answer

have teams conduct their training camp as usual, with no access to family or other at risk individuals

after 6 weeks, everyone is immune and they have served their quarantine period

 

herd immunity is a good thing

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

 

Okay, smart guy ... if I get it and I die, am I gonna get it again?

 

Yeah ... I didn't think so.

 

Edited by Gugny
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Don't worry about this, I've been assured by posters here that the season is starting on time. Who you going to believe, those wacko physicians and immunologists with their kooky voodoo science?

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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

on one hand, the claim is that the virus spreads quickly and easily to all who come in contact - which is why social distancing and masking is pushed ad nauseum.

 

However, your argument is that a confined group of athletes over a 6 week period won't all become infected if they ignore the draconian measures

 

If that argument is true and transmission is limited, then why do we need the masks and distancing?

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, spartacus said:

on one hand, the claim is that the virus spreads quickly and easily to all who come in contact - which is why social distancing and masking is pushed ad nauseum.

 

However, your argument is that a confined group of athletes over a 6 week period won't all become infected if they ignore the draconian measures

 

If that argument is true and transmission is limited, then why do we need the masks and distancing?

 

 

 

 

Not my arguement at all and I wont address any of that off-topic nonsense until you address your original plan first.

 

How do you see putting all the players in quarantine as establishing immunity and herd immunity?

 

1. Everyone is tested before going into this quarantine.

 

2. If no one has it, they can not pass it because there is nothing to pass. Which means they come out just as vulnerable as before.

 

3. If someone does have it, you are saying everyone is signing up to catch it from that person, like an old school Chicken Pox Party. Except this is deadlier than Chicken Pox. So you are asking all of these athletes to knowingly get the virus,  and just hope they dont die.

 

What am I missing in your plan?

 

 

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2 hours ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

Like most health officials over the past few months, his predictions were based on flawed modeling, and politicized science. 

He predicted 100k to 200k deaths based off modeling in March.  We're at around 120k deaths.

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2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I hope you didn’t buy any masks bro, they don’t work!

 

Except Fauci admitted that was a lie to the American Public to prevent shortages. 

 

Do you ever get tired of people lying to you because they know best?

I didn't buy any masks because I already had several bandannas, which I tied around my thigh over my jeans at both Ted Nugent and Toby Keith shows. 

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Fauci was asked by Dan Patrick this morning if he thought the NFL was being “naively optimistic” about pulling the season off. He responded with something like “well, I wouldn’t want to call them naive.....” What he then thought, I’m sure, was “out loud in public”. 

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The NFL still has time on its hands.

 

Me personally, I’ll start to worry if this virus isn’t dead by July 25th when most of this country would have experienced an extensive heatwave by then.

 

Extreme heat across the landscape would kill any virus, but if the Kung flu somehow survives the peak of the heat season.............

 

bye bye to football of any kind in 2020.

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16 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not my arguement at all and I wont address any of that off-topic nonsense until you address your original plan first.

 

How do you see putting all the players in quarantine as establishing immunity and herd immunity?

 

1. Everyone is tested before going into this quarantine.

 

2. If no one has it, they can not pass it because there is nothing to pass. Which means they come out just as vulnerable as before.

 

3. If someone does have it, you are saying everyone is signing up to catch it from that person, like an old school Chicken Pox Party. Except this is deadlier than Chicken Pox. So you are asking all of these athletes to knowingly get the virus,  and just hope they dont die.

 

What am I missing in your plan?
 

quarantine does not infer immunity

being exposed and contracting the virus creates immunity.

 

players all interact and get the virus from each other

they are at camp, removed from general population

they are healthy and very few get sick

sick get treated

at end of camp- no one is a carrier since the quarantine period has lapsed

on with the season

 

stop with the fear porn

for healthy college kids under 30, this is not a deadly disease

NY stats show that only .4% of those dying from Covid were under 30. That's a 99.6% survival rate.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

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One quarter of the teams in the league are located in 5 states that are among 10 that are seeing their highest average 7-day counts of new cases...Arizona, Texas, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina. 8 of 10 states are southern red states. So just make sure blame is properly leveled on the states that didn't want to listen because, you know, don't tread on me and all. 

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1 minute ago, spartacus said:

quarantine does not infer immunity

being exposed and contracting the virus creates immunity.

 

players all interact and get the virus from each other

they are at camp, removed from general population

they are healthy and very few get sick

sick get treated

at end of camp- no one is a carrier since the quarantine period has lapsed

on with the season

 

stop with the fear porn

for healthy college kids under 30, this is not a deadly disease

NY stats show that only .4% of those dying from Covid were under 30. That's a 99.6% survival rate.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

 

Gotcha, so yeah, your plan is "give it to everyone and see who lives". That's not so much herd immunity as it is Culling the Herd.

 

Some (not all) players might be of lower risk, but what about coaches and the rest of the staff? Frazier is in his 60s. Dabol is a chubster. We dont know who may have what vulnerabilities.

 

This isnt fear porn, stop with your extremist nonsense. This is looking at real data and thinking about the real consequences. Let's think this all the way through since it's kinda clear you haven't gone any further than just having an idea.

 

Even using your 0.4% mortality rate... Heck, I'll throw you a bone and use 0.2% mortality...

 

Teams bring 99 players into camp, and lets say a staff of about 50 people each. That's ~4800 bodies you want to give the virus to.

 

At a conservative mortality rate of 0.2%, that is 9.6 deaths. (Using the known rate of 0.4% puts it closer to 20)

 

So 10 deaths of players and coaches in camp. When is the last team the NFL had even 2 players or coaches die in a single season? That would be looked at as a tragic year.

 

Sorry, it's a bad plan.

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2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

How this would surprise anyone would be a surprise. It has been the Damocles sword hanging over the season from the get go. 
 

Fauci is one of the brightest medical minds in our nation, he is smart enough and honest enough to go with the best information available concerning Covid-19, he doesn’t lie, and has been a breath of fresh air on the national front unlike others. 
 

Go Bills!!!

I love and appreciate how you end all your posts with GO BILLS..it reminds me why Im here and helps me keep motivated to think we may have football..I dont want to think too much about no football Thats way too depressing a thought

 

GO BILLS Indeed ^5 

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4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Gotcha, so yeah, your plan is "give it to everyone and see who lives". That's not so much herd immunity as it is Culling the Herd.

 

Some (not all) players might be of lower risk, but what about coaches and the rest of the staff? Frazier is in his 60s. Dabol is a chubster. We dont know who may have what vulnerabilities.

 

This isnt fear porn, stop with your extremist nonsense. This is looking at real data and thinking about the real consequences. Let's think this all the way through since it's kinda clear you haven't gone any further than just having an idea.

 

Even using your 0.4% mortality rate... Heck, I'll throw you a bone and use 0.2% mortality...

 

Teams bring 99 players into camp, and lets say a staff of about 50 people each. That's ~4800 bodies you want to give the virus to.

 

At a conservative mortality rate of 0.2%, that is 9.6 deaths. (Using the known rate of 0.4% puts it closer to 20)

 

So 10 deaths of players and coaches in camp. When is the last team the NFL had even 2 players or coaches die in a single season? That would be looked at as a tragic year.

 

Sorry, it's a bad plan.

ok

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Just now, spartacus said:

your math is really bad

.004 x 100 players = .18 dead

somebody loses a toe

 

football players are in prime shape

the NYS stat is .4% derived from all NYS residents.

since healthier, players would be less at risk

 

150 players and staff x 32 teams = 4800 people. That is how many people you are giving it to. That is the real number.

 

Cutting it down to 100 is intentionally misleading. Heck, why not just apply 0.4% to every 1 individual? That means no one dies! Just show the virus that math!

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, spartacus said:

ok

 

This mean we're on the same page?

 

Look, I'd love to have a real plan on how to make the season happen. I even appreciate your creativity in trying to come up with a solution. But when you work through the math, it just doesnt work. Doesnt mean we give up.

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On 6/16/2020 at 1:17 PM, BuffaloBillies said:

 

Did someone say Double Jeopardy?

 

I'll take... the rapists for $400 - Jeopardy Sean Connery | Meme ...

 

3 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

This guy has been wrong a lot.  

care to eniighten us with your medical credentials and proof; I would like to see a thesis on the topic as I study-up on the disease as family members contracted and beat it;  the guy has 50 years of experience and went to Africa to get first hand info on the ebola virus; or  are you just mad the season may fall victim to an outbreak in the middle of the football season which every other sport is anticipating and working to minimize ???

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In early March he said you can go on a Cruise and masks were pointless.  This was at the same time he was finishing a paper for the NEJM calling Covid a severe flu.  

 

How anyone can believe or trust anything this guy is saying at this point is beyond me.

 

Why is he talking about what could, or should be cancelled when its start date (first game) is over 2 months away?

 

Why dont you update us on the virus and tell us why you feel this way and why the goal posts have moved 76 times.  The logical conclusion right now is we could be doing this for years.  This is grossly irresponsible. 

 

The players are at ZERO risk.  None.  Coaches with comorbidities take some caution.  

 

Half the deaths are assisted living facility deaths.  Median age 70-75.

 

This is not hard.  And full stadiums.  You know the risks.  Here's your waiver.  

 

Carry on.  

 

Biggest breach of trust ever:

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, njbuff said:

The NFL still has time on its hands.

 

Me personally, I’ll start to worry if this virus isn’t dead by July 25th when most of this country would have experienced an extensive heatwave by then.

 

Extreme heat across the landscape would kill any virus, but if the Kung flu somehow survives the peak of the heat season.............

 

bye bye to football of any kind in 2020.

Its hot as balls outside here in Texas and cases are spiking.  

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7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Its hot as balls outside here in Texas and cases are spiking.  

 

 

As people go back to work they are getting tested.

 

Holy cow lots of people have it.

 

This is a good thing.  The death rate is going to continue to plummet.

 

And the CDC will announce in mid August, "pandemic is over.  Just be safe.  Its like swine flu for the elderly."  

 

We shutdown the planet bc we were told it had a 4% IFR.  More cases.  Less deaths.  Quicker back to freaking normal.  

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3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

This statement is exactly the kind of narrative that I'm talking about. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Fauci, a 79-year-old epidemiologist, has, at any point in all of this, been untruthful. The narrative you're pushing, however, has easily recognizable political motives.

 

Fauci is a good man and a good scientist.  He is not (and it shows at times) is an epidemiologist.  He's an infectious disease specialist, which has some overlap in knowledge and skillset with epidemiology but is not the same thing.    Neither is Birx.

Believe it or don't, we don't actually appear to have an epidemiologist in a prominent national role dealing with the covid-19 pandemic.  It's kind of a glaring gap.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fauci is a good man and a good scientist.  He is not (and it shows at times) is an epidemiologist.  He's an infectious disease specialist, which has some overlap in knowledge and skillset with epidemiology but is not the same thing.    Neither is Birx.

Believe it or don't, we don't actually appear to have an epidemiologist in a prominent national role dealing with the covid-19 pandemic.  It's kind of a glaring gap.

 

 

I stand corrected.

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I don't have time to read however many pages of comments are listed here, but I'd love to hear what is being proposed if a few people on a team test positive in mid-season??  Here's the scenario.  The Bills are 5-0 and after meetings on Tue/Wed and a full practice on Wednesday where the Offense went up against the Defense;  Mitch Morse and Feliciano test positive less than 24 hours before the scheduled Thursday night game against the Chiefs.  

 

What is the protocol for how many players are quarantined??

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3 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

This guy has been wrong a lot.  


Might be hard to believe, but science is often not binary, right or wrong. It’s constantly evolving, and in the case of COVID-19, that’s happening daily. There’s a real deficit of patience for nuance and uncertainty these days. 
 

But everyone always enjoys a good “durrr, eggs were bad, now their good, scienticians are stoopid” take. 

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15 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

As people go back to work they are getting tested.

Holy cow lots of people have it.

This is a good thing.  The death rate is going to continue to plummet.

And the CDC will announce in mid August, "pandemic is over.  Just be safe.  Its like swine flu for the elderly."  

We shutdown the planet bc we were told it had a 4% IFR.  More cases.  Less deaths.  Quicker back to freaking normal.  

 

To my understanding, we shut down (in this country) because serious cases requiring hospitalization were rising exponentially, NYC was overwhelmed, and even people who aren't epidemiologists could see that if strong measures weren't taken until we "got our act together" with testing, contact tracing, PPE for medical personnel and etc, - most of our major cities were going to go the NYC route and rural areas that lack hospital capacity weren't gonna look so good, either.

 

No one to my knowledge was talking about IFR (infection fatality rate) at the point where we shut down, because we didn't have enough testing to have a clue what that was.  We were talking about "case fatality rate" and still are.  

 

Which, by the way, still stands at 5.4% in the US of A even with all the increased testing. 

 

Whatever the infection fatality rate turns out to be (and we won't know for some time) remember hospitals were being flooded with seriously ill patients.  NYC was sending patients who weren't critically ill home.   Other major cities never became as overwhelmed but they got close (Atlanta, etc).  Still others avoided a serious problem because we did the "Hail Mary" play and shut down.

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/banner-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/arizona

 

Exactly how will a theoretically, much lower, infection fatality rate keep hospitals from being overwhelmed again where cases surge? 

 

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23 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Its hot as balls outside here in Texas and cases are spiking.  

 

I am talking about it being hot throughout the entire country.

 

It has yet to be hot here on Long Island and in many areas of the country.

 

It's tricky, I know, but a virus can be hear one minute and out the next. 

 

Let's see what happens.

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3 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

The real question is can he throw a ball over the LB and drop a dime to the receiver under the CB? Just wanted to talk football. That's why I come here. 

 

If I were guessing, I would say Fauci probably has a noodle arm and can't throw with a good spiral.

But that's just a guess.

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4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Fauci has proven he will remain silent when it is politically expedient to do so. Don’t believe a word this clown says without cross examination.

 

#CancelFauci

That's right Chans.....let's all follow our fearless leader and down a bottle of hydroxychloroquine then wash it down with bleach.....adorable 

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6 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

I am talking about it being hot throughout the entire country.

 

It has yet to be hot here on Long Island and in many areas of the country.

 

It's tricky, I know, but a virus can be hear one minute and out the next. 

 

Let's see what happens.

 

There is absolutely zero data that backs up the notion that heat has any direct affect on the virus. And plenty of warm weather countries have had the virus sweep through.

 

There are studies that show the difference in human behavior in warm temps has slowed the spread of other diseases and viruses (being outdoors instead of cooped up together in the winter). But no study has been able to prove that normal summer temps kill or slow the virus. I believe it was 160 or 180 degrees that finally killed it, but if it gets that hot we have bigger problems than COVID.

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4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

How this would surprise anyone would be a surprise. It has been the Damocles sword hanging over the season from the get go. 
 

Fauci is one of the brightest medical minds in our nation, he is smart enough and honest enough to go with the best information available concerning Covid-19, he doesn’t lie, and has been a breath of fresh air on the national front unlike others. 
 

Go Bills!!!

 

First Fauci said the virus was nothing to worry about, then downplayed the role of masks.  The guy is bright, but he is not the medical prophet some believe. 

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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To my understanding, we shut down (in this country) because serious cases requiring hospitalization were rising exponentially, NYC was overwhelmed, and even people who aren't epidemiologists could see that if strong measures weren't taken until we "got our act together" with testing, contact tracing, PPE for medical personnel and etc, - most of our major cities were going to go the NYC route and rural areas that lack hospital capacity weren't gonna look so good, either.

 

No one to my knowledge was talking about IFR (infection fatality rate) at the point where we shut down, because we didn't have enough testing to have a clue what that was.  We were talking about "case fatality rate" and still are.  

 

Which, by the way, still stands at 5.4% in the US of A even with all the increased testing. 

 

Whatever the infection fatality rate turns out to be (and we won't know for some time) remember hospitals were being flooded with seriously ill patients.  NYC was sending patients who weren't critically ill home.   Other major cities never became as overwhelmed but they got close (Atlanta, etc).  Still others avoided a serious problem because we did the "Hail Mary" play and shut down.

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/banner-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/arizona

 

Exactly how will a theoretically, much lower, infection fatality rate keep hospitals from being overwhelmed again where cases surge? 

 

 

 

Look it up.  The WHO said in February it had a CFR of 4%. [Edit: you're confusing "infection fatality rate" with "case fatality rate".  They differ.  Learn the difference.  You just quoted CFR.  In your previous post you said IFR.  It's an important difference which is why it's showing up in this closed thread - mod]   This is right when it hit Northern Italy (which by the way usually has bad flu seasons like this year and hospitals at capacity) these numbers set off panic and our leaders all responded to it.  Except the British, Japan, Belarus, and Sweden.  Some others.  Look this up to, the British actually took Covid off its "Serious disease list" on March 19 but the Ferguson death model scared Boris into lockdown.

 

The virus has taught us there can't be a  national response.  NYC area is not Tennessee.  Hospitalization rate needs to be managed by state and localities.  We never had a surge anywhere in this country outside of one hospital in Queens.  Hospitals had to furlough staff; empty because no one was coming in.  

 

So we achieved what we were told:  we needed to not overwhelm hospitals, get ventilators and the ppe, and get data.  Our data.  

 

And this Fauci needs to start giving some serious explanation and justification for what he is "commanding" us to be doing considering we have done our jobs.  What's the goal now, Dr.?

 

"Football may not be able to be played." 

 

Ok.  Why?  What are we attempting to do now?  Hold out for that vaccine that will never happen?  

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

There is absolutely zero data that backs up the notion that heat has any direct affect on the virus. And plenty of warm weather countries have had the virus sweep through.

 

There are studies that show the difference in human behavior in warm temps has slowed the spread of other diseases and viruses (being outdoors instead of cooped up together in the winter). But no study has been able to prove that normal summer temps kill or slow the virus. I believe it was 160 or 180 degrees that finally killed it, but if it gets that hot we have bigger problems than COVID.

 

If your synopsis is true.............

 

we are screwed. ?

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18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To my understanding, we shut down (in this country) because serious cases requiring hospitalization were rising exponentially, NYC was overwhelmed, and even people who aren't epidemiologists could see that if strong measures weren't taken until we "got our act together" with testing, contact tracing, PPE for medical personnel and etc, - most of our major cities were going to go the NYC route and rural areas that lack hospital capacity weren't gonna look so good, either.

 

No one to my knowledge was talking about IFR (infection fatality rate) at the point where we shut down, because we didn't have enough testing to have a clue what that was.  We were talking about "case fatality rate" and still are.  

 

Which, by the way, still stands at 5.4% in the US of A even with all the increased testing. 

 

Whatever the infection fatality rate turns out to be (and we won't know for some time) remember hospitals were being flooded with seriously ill patients.  NYC was sending patients who weren't critically ill home.   Other major cities never became as overwhelmed but they got close (Atlanta, etc).  Still others avoided a serious problem because we did the "Hail Mary" play and shut down.

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/banner-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/arizona

 

Exactly how will a theoretically, much lower, infection fatality rate keep hospitals from being overwhelmed again where cases surge? 

 

I dont think we will ever know the true fatality rate. My wife does antibody testing and she said there are a lot more positive tests now than when they first started testing. Lots of people had it and never knew it. My wife had it and didnt know it. I never got it. 

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3 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

He's a scientist. Science doesn't give a $#!+ about politics. It's only certain politicians who keep trying to politicize science.

 

As far as someone else's accusation about Fauci "flip flopping" or "being wrong," science is about drawing the best conclusions that you can with the data that's available. Early on, there was little data about how COVID-19 spreads, so a lot of early conclusions were wrong. As more information came in, the models were adjusted and the conclusions were modified. That's how science works - it's a self-correcting system of progressive discovery. Changing one's mind in the face of evidence is better than doubling down on a flawed conclusion or "hoping" the problem will just go away.

 

 

 

in other words, he can never be wrong, because the science changes.  He was once saying that we should not shake hands, then saying one night stands were okay depending on individual risk.  The guy loves to be in the spotlight.  

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4 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Politically expedient? Do you think he's running for something?

He is 78 so I don't think he is running anymore.  However to get where he is without having a personality tending towards being "politically expedient"?  Highly unlikely, IMO. And in case anyone cares politically I hate both sides of the aisle.

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5 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I dont think we will ever know the true fatality rate. My wife does antibody testing and she said there are a lot more positive tests now than when they first started testing. Lots of people had it and never knew it. My wife had it and didnt know it. I never got it. 

You just disclosed three times more health info than the Zeke Elliot news. I am compiling my own “contact tracing” spreadsheet of people I can associate with...your wife and Zeke are on my list. 

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21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If I were guessing, I would say Fauci probably has a noodle arm and can't throw with a good spiral.

But that's just a guess.

 

I’d guess he is in decent shape.  I’d say he could gove Peterman a run.  Not a knock on Peterman. 

I doubt NFL cancels.  Most likely is a spring season like the NCAA is allegedly contemplating.  Which would also be the death of MLB IMo. 

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