Article comparing Josh Allen to other 1st round QBs

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

[chongli]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

 

All I was trying to say was the Manuel was thought of as a good QB too when he came out, as Josh was, but Manuel fluttered. I hope Josh succeeds, but I agree that 2020 will be a make-or-break year for Josh. If he doesn't step it up next year, it will be time for the Bills to bring in some competition and draft a QB in 2021. Right now, Josh is the 4th best QB from the class of 2018, behind Jackson, Darnold, and Mayfield.

Edited January 14, 2020 by chongli

[VW82]

40 minutes ago, Mango said:

I have said before, I like Josh, he is electric. When it comes time to re-sign in 4 years, he needs to make HUGE strides to get that contract. Take a look at this roster and subtract $30-40M of players from it. Then ask if we can win 10+ games every year with it. 

 

This is the reason I hope we press the issue some in free agency and the draft. Bills have a two year window before Josh gets expensive (assuming he develops).  If he doesn't develop we're likely rebuilding anyways.

 

The highest upside move is hope Josh develops now and surround him with good enough talent to make a run while he's cheap. Whether or not he's good enough to carry inferior rosters is a question that can wait.    

[Bring it]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am not going to worry about anything regarding him till there is actually something to worry about.

 

increase in all productivity from year 1 to year 2.....NO signs of regression.

 

I expect a similar jump in year 3

I expect improvement once again from Josh! Just not as big of one. I do think that in year 3 his improvement will be in smaller increments. Like the article said. Hitting receivers more in stride, better starts to his games instead of taking a quarter or half to get going. Better recognition of defensive schemes. Overall learning from his mistakes by experience. He already shows toughness, competitiveness and leadership in spades!!! 

[Bangarang]

Assuming Allen starts every game next year then he would have 44 games to his name. At that point, it should be pretty clear what kind of QB he’s going to be. 
 

If he is more or less the same next year then I would hate giving him a massive contract extension. I know a lot of people are sold that he’s a franchise QB but I’m not there.

[tcampbell104]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill 

tannehill looked like he could play in the nfl with the dolphins when he had some decent talent around him

[njbuff]

The kid has been a ONE MAN GANG since putting on his Wyoming uniform.

 

Allen has NEVER had a premier talent to throw to, unlike every other QB you can mention.

 

Thing is, he still has that one man gang mentality. 

 

If the Bills get themselves a big stud WR (or two), then you can seriously begin to judge what Allen is.

 

A big part of his problem with deep ball accuracy is that he ALWAYS has a very small window to throw in. Also, he rushes on his deep throws and that needs to be coached out of him. A bigger WR will allow him to put more air under those deep throws. With his deep throws to Brown, it almost feels like he hopes Brown can get open instead of throwing him open deep. A bigger stud WR changes all that.

[Dr.Sack]

It’s interesting to think what Allen could do with a DK Metcalf big WR. There’s a case to be made that the Bills simply need to find that #1 WR & #1 TE and the offense should be able to generate another TD per game. Assuming we can do find some more weapons & a big bruising back like Henry we could be a juggernaut in 2020.  

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

The four great predictors.. 1) Lie detectors for detecting truth; 2) IQ tests for measuring how successful someone will be; 3) quarterback rating / QBR for measuring the effectiveness of a quarterback; 4) NFL analysts and fans for detecting who will have a HOF career based on their first 2 seasons.

 

Note: If I was strapped to a lie detector right now it very might well indicate I am telling the truth :).

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

The article didnt seem to take into account total yardage and total touchdowns when compared to other qbs.  It also didnt seem to take into account w-l pct%.

 

Hard to make comparisons when you dont include the entirety of his game.

W-L % is not a Qb stat. 

 

It did take totals into account.  He's behind in passing yards, and up there in rushing yards. 

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

That isn't good enough. At some point he needs to make a big jump. The playoffs has shown you need you QB and offense to put up more points then what the Bills averaged. 17-19 points is not good enough. Next season will be a big test. There is no way they have such an easy schedule playing so many teams below .500 again. 

Except from the article.... 

 

".....overall steps are being taken forward.

But they are just that, steps, rather than the leaps seen by other young QBs across the league. For some of you, that may keep you more on the fence through two seasons and that is okay. I myself still think the jury remains out on Allen and all his fellow 2018 QBs."

 

This is where my feelings are.  He needs a big jump.  Waiting 4-5 years for a Qb to develop is not acceptable today.  Year 3 he should jump to middle of the pack in Qb stats at minimum.  If that doesn't happen, pull the trigger and draft another Qb. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by TwistofFate

[VW82]

27 minutes ago, njbuff said:

A big part of his problem with deep ball accuracy is that he ALWAYS has a very small window to throw in. Also, he rushes on his deep throws and that needs to be coached out of him. A bigger WR will allow him to put more air under those deep throws. With his deep throws to Brown, it almost feels like he hopes Brown can get open instead of throwing him open deep. A bigger stud WR changes all that.

 

A big stud WR that is not only huge but outrunning NFL CBs for deep balls. Are we talking about Randy Moss?? If we had Tyreke Hill would he be too small for Josh too? 

 

His problem with deep balls is that he isn't accurate on throws that require touch, especially long ones. He's missing Brown, Knox, Foser, etc. by 5-10 yards sometimes on deep passes. No one is making those catches. I suspect it'll be a big point of emphasis this off season and he'll get it cleaned up just like he did with the intermediate throws.   

Edited January 14, 2020 by VW82

[K-9]

2 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

Stands to reason as EJ was a far, far more developed QB coming out of college than Josh Allen. 
 

It amazes me that some are so quick to dismiss Allen’s lack of proper QB development vs. that of his peers,  many of whom were being groomed since middle school, attended elite development camps, became star recruits in high school, went on to lead major college programs, and received high level coaching. 
 

Allen got none of that. Instead of knocking him for not being a polished gem currently, perhaps we should give him some credit for reaching this stage in the first place IN SPITE of receiving none of the advantages that 1st round QBs typically get throughout their journey to the NFL. 

[teef]

we all knew there would be some that just couldn't stand to watch a qb develop, which is exactly what we knew we had to do with josh.  don't get me wrong...he needs to take a big step again next year, but we'll see him on this team for at least 2 more years.  they're not going to dump him before that.  he needs to keep working like he has, and this team needs to keep giving him the tools to succeed.  i think both of those will happen this off season.

[njbuff]

30 minutes ago, teef said:

we all knew there would be some that just couldn't stand to watch a qb develop, which is exactly what we knew we had to do with josh.  don't get me wrong...he needs to take a big step again next year, but we'll see him on this team for at least 2 more years.  they're not going to dump him before that.  he needs to keep working like he has, and this team needs to keep giving him the tools to succeed.  i think both of those will happen this off season.

 

Well said.

[K-9]

54 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

W-L % is not a Qb stat. 

 

It did take totals into account.  He's behind in passing yards, and up there in rushing yards. 

No, it’s a team stat

 

But it’s typically indicative of decent quarterback play.

[Penfield45]

9 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I some how doubt year 3 is a make or break year you don't draft a QB at 7th overall and toss him to the curb that easily.

 

the team won't cut him but as fans we will know if he is a franchise QB or not 

 

If he has the same stats he did this season we aren't winning more than 6-8 games, not against that schedule. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Penfield45

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, chongli said:

 

All I was trying to say was the Manuel was thought of as a good QB too when he came out, as Josh was, but Manuel fluttered. I hope Josh succeeds, but I agree that 2020 will be a make-or-break year for Josh. If he doesn't step it up next year, it will be time for the Bills to bring in some competition and draft a QB in 2021. Right now, Josh is the 4th best QB from the class of 2018, behind Jackson, Darnold, and Mayfield.

How do you figure that Allen is behind Darnold and Mayfield?

[reddogblitz]

51 minutes ago, K-9 said:

But it’s typically indicative of decent quarterback play.

 

QBs job is to win.

[Mark92]

I believe in Allen.  The guy makes some bone head mistakes from time to time but he did show an overall improvement from last season.  The guy also has the desire and will to not only get better but also to lead this team to victory.  He has a little of that Brett Favre "Gun Slinger" in him.  He always thinks he can do something to win the game.  Oddly enough that's not something found in many QBs when they reach the NFL.  It's also Allen's biggest flaw.  He tends to do too much sometimes when not always needed.  Hopefully he learns how to harness that a little.  I believe the bills have their QB in Allen.  Hopefully with continued improvement he can lead us to the promise Land ?.  

[OZBILLS]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Year 3 he should jump to middle of the pack in Qb stats at minimum.

 

With a brutal schedule for year 3, it's going to be a hell of a ride.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, chongli said:

 

EJ Manuel says hi.

Im not following your intended point here.  Do you feel Manuel and Allen are comparable in talent?  In on field achievement?  In FO situation?

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill or the Bucs with Crab Legs.

 

If next year Josh doesn't make big strides you have to consider cutting bait.  Don't go down with the ship.  Otherwise you may end up not in QB purgatory, but QB limbo instead.  Neither works.

I'm with this line of thinking.

 

Josh has shown me a great deal of promise, but I remain somewhat unconvinced he's going to emerge as an upper echelon QB. Time will tell. He's certainly got the ability. He also made strides in year two which is a VERY positive development. Thing with Josh is he's not going to "bust." He works his tail off and he's got too much raw talent. The question remains; is he a franchise QB or a middle of the road guy?

 

However; I can't get down with the posts that imply regression in year 3 would be "part of the process." That's not how it works. Not a single TRUE Bills fan in the world wants this scenario; it would be devastating for the franchise. But it's at least a possibility if we're being honest.

 

SO IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF Allen regresses or even remains stagnant, I'm perfectly willing to accept that they MAY, MAY, MAY have to start considering their options. 

 

I don't need to see him become Mahomes, but I need to see him make some strides, become more efficient, and ultimately more productive in the passing game. I don't believe that's asking too much.

 

If the doomsday scenario of regression were to occur, I'm begrudgingly willing to accept that there may be yet another lost season as they sort it out. I've been in this thing for 30 years; IF, IF, IF, it doesn't work out, I'll just have to wait......AGAIN.

 

These are nothing but message board opinions. At the end of the day, what's going to matter for the Bills is JOSH ALLEN himself refining his game. The opportunity remains his for the taking. He's just gotta go out and do it on a consistent basis so we can officially cross QB off the list of question marks.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Stands to reason as EJ was a far, far more developed QB coming out of college than Josh Allen. 
 

It amazes me that some are so quick to dismiss Allen’s lack of proper QB development vs. that of his peers,  many of whom were being groomed since middle school, attended elite development camps, became star recruits in high school, went on to lead major college programs, and received high level coaching. 
 

Allen got none of that. Instead of knocking him for not being a polished gem currently, perhaps we should give him some credit for reaching this stage in the first place IN SPITE of receiving none of the advantages that 1st round QBs typically get throughout their journey to the NFL. 

His coach was Carson Wentz’ college coach. I completely get what you’re saying but I would think having a coach who developed a top 5 prospect a few years earlier would be beneficial.  

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

His coach was Carson Wentz’ college coach. I completely get what you’re saying but I would think having a coach who developed a top 5 prospect a few years earlier would be beneficial.  

Two years of competent coaching then compared to his peers. Again, it’s amazing Allen was able to take advantage of such minimal exposure. I choose to give him some credit for that.

[DuckyBoys]

I think we'll see a significant leap next year.  He needs to trust his guys to make plays for him.  As the season progressed he started to check down on early downs and settle for what was there.  Bills upgrade his weapons again and he lets the game come to him we should be in great shape  .  He can still do the hero ball just on a much more limited fashion.  I think he'll always have that as part of his game.   I would have him really work on using the rbs more on early downs .  The ceiling for him is still insanely high.

[Dr. Who]

33 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I'm with this line of thinking.

 

Josh has shown me a great deal of promise, but I remain somewhat unconvinced he's going to emerge as an upper echelon QB. Time will tell. He's certainly got the ability. He also made strides in year two which is a VERY positive development. Thing with Josh is he's not going to "bust." He works his tail off and he's got too much raw talent. The question remains; is he a franchise QB or a middle of the road guy?

 

However; I can't get down with the posts that imply regression in year 3 would be "part of the process." That's not how it works. Not a single TRUE Bills fan in the world wants this scenario; it would be devastating for the franchise. But it's at least a possibility if we're being honest.

 

SO IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF, IF Allen regresses or even remains stagnant, I'm perfectly willing to accept that they MAY, MAY, MAY have to start considering their options. 

 

I don't need to see him become Mahomes, but I need to see him make some strides, become more efficient, and ultimately more productive in the passing game. I don't believe that's asking too much.

 

If the doomsday scenario of regression were to occur, I'm begrudgingly willing to accept that there may be yet another lost season as they sort it out. I've been in this thing for 30 years; IF, IF, IF, it doesn't work out, I'll just have to wait......AGAIN.

 

These are nothing but message board opinions. At the end of the day, what's going to matter for the Bills is JOSH ALLEN himself refining his game. The opportunity remains his for the taking. He's just gotta go out and do it on a consistent basis so we can officially cross QB off the list of question marks.

This is all true, but if you don't mind, I'm going to focus on the possibility of progression to franchise qb. Still think it's better than a coin flip he gets there. He had further to grow (and therefore potential to grow as well) because he had fewer opportunities to develop the way top qb prospects in college do. Allen's character and desire to improve are not going to be the reason he fails. He obviously possesses physical abilities that are elite. I think you have mentioned in various posts the psychological factor and I believe Josh needs to learn to trust playmakers and that will come with the addition of more of them.

[LSHMEAB]

Another thought on where I think he needs to improve; recognition and timing. 

 

I'm not nearly as concerned about the accuracy issue if taken in a vacuum. He's usually accurate enough when he finds the proper target and delivers. He's got to improve in terms scanning the field, finding the right target, and delivering on time in stride.

 

Of course we've seen some wildly inaccurate throws in which this isn't applicable. He's never going to be the most accurate guy in the league. But what needs to happen is for the game to slow down enough for him to properly deliver the ball to the correct target.

 

He's good enough in other areas to miss a few on occasion if he can just get the timing and recognition thing down. 

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

This is all true, but if you don't mind, I'm going to focus on the possibility of progression to franchise qb. Still think it's better than a coin flip he gets there. He had further to grow (and therefore potential to grow as well) because he had fewer opportunities to develop the way top qb prospects in college do. Allen's character and desire to improve are not going to be the reason he fails. He obviously possesses physical abilities that are elite. I think you have mentioned in various posts the psychological factor and I believe Josh needs to learn to trust playmakers and that will come with the addition of more of them.

Beane's got to acquire at least one high level playmaker. There's no doubt about that.

Edited January 15, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[Mango]

7 hours ago, Gordio said:

 

 

Well if Bleacher Report says it, it must be true.  Manual was a horrible pick, Buddy Nix boxed himself into a corner that year and was bound and determined to pick a QB, even though by most experts opinion was the worst draft for QBs in over a decade.  Anybody that truly watched FSU when Manuel was there could of told you he would be a bust.  There are a few FSU grads on this board & they all said Manuel was not the answer.  I will take their word over BR.  

I still think he is the best QB from that draft class. That draft class was just historically bad. 99% of the time if you were told that you have a chance to draft the best QB in the draft at 16-ish, you would jump at it. I’m not saying we should have kept him, or was good. Just a different look at it. 
 

He didn’t wash out of the league. He retired under contract in KC with no interest of bouncing around the league as a back up. 

[reddogblitz]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

It IS good enough

 

And if you abandon a QB that you draft and is getting better year to year in every category....then you deserve the decades of failure that this team has endured.

 

We have a QB with talent.....give him what he needs to succeed and stop hitting the ***** reset button on this team

 

What QB did we draft and abandon resulting in 20 years of futility?

 

Todd Collins?

JP Losman?

Trent Edwards?

EJ?

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

What QB did we draft and abandon resulting in 20 years of futility?

 

Todd Collins?

JP Losman?

Trent Edwards?

EJ?

Exactly. Same with Head Coach's and GM's.

 

The revolving door is not the problem. If we have the wrong guy at GM, HC, or QB, holding on isn't the answer. I'm fairly confident the Bills have a solid GM(he's done well, but he must start hitting on offensive acquisitions.) I'm very confident the Bills have a solid Head Coach. I'm 50/50 on the Bills having a franchise QB.

 

Given McDermott's style and ability to "manufacture" wins, this team can remain competitive even if Allen doesn't progress. But if Allen doesn't progress, we probably ain't winning a Super Bowl. I want to see them hoisting that trophy. That's the ultimate objective.

Edited January 15, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[JetsFan20]

15 hours ago, entropyrules said:

Year 3 will be the deal maker or breaker with Allen...Darn I hope he hope he makes an improvement as at my age I only have one or two more cycles of waiting for the Bills to find a QB...overall great article summing up his progression

Deal breaker in year 3 after a solid year 2 in which he led you to the playoffs? Man Buffalo fans are tough.

 

 

 

 

[JetsFan20]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

His coach was Carson Wentz’ college coach. I completely get what you’re saying but I would think having a coach who developed a top 5 prospect a few years earlier would be beneficial.  

Wentz was also two years older than Allen when he came into the NFL. 

 

It’s quite the conundrum when you think about it. QBs come into the league younger than ever, start from day 1, and are expected to become franchise players within two years. 

[reddogblitz]

28 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

Deal breaker in year 3 after a solid year 2 in which he led you to the playoffs? Man Buffalo fans are tough.

 

 

 

 

 

Making the playoffs as 6th or 5th seed after a 17 year drought was awesome. That said, we don't want to become the Cincinnati "One 'n Done" Bengals.

 

What we have after 2 years is a good start, nothing more.  We have a Championship Caliber D. Don't waste it.

 

Now it's time for Josh to kick it up a notch. If he can't this year start looking for someone that can.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

That isn't good enough. At some point he needs to make a big jump. The playoffs has shown you need you QB and offense to put up more points then what the Bills averaged. 17-19 points is not good enough. Next season will be a big test. There is no way they have such an easy schedule playing so many teams below .500 again. 

 

We do realize that the Titans have just won 2 playoff games? 

 

In the first, their QB was 9 of 16 for 76 yds (71 net) with 1 TD, 1 INT and 2 fumbles (0 lost)

In the second, their QB was 8 of 15 for 91 yds (83 net) with 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 fumbles

 

Hmmmm...maybe the "and offense" part is a thing

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We do realize that the Titans have just won 2 playoff games? 

 

In the first, their QB was 9 of 16 for 76 yds (71 net) with 1 TD, 1 INT and 2 fumbles (0 lost)

In the second, their QB was 8 of 15 for 91 yds (83 net) with 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 fumbles

 

Hmmmm...maybe the "and offense" part is a thing

Once again proving that passing offense doesn’t need to be prolific to be highly effective. 

[LSHMEAB]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We do realize that the Titans have just won 2 playoff games? 

 

In the first, their QB was 9 of 16 for 76 yds (71 net) with 1 TD, 1 INT and 2 fumbles (0 lost)

In the second, their QB was 8 of 15 for 91 yds (83 net) with 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 fumbles

 

Hmmmm...maybe the "and offense" part is a thing

Yeah. This is exactly why the Bills need to get a MUCH stronger run game going. They need to add a RUN BLOCKING LG/RT AND another back.

 

Given McDermott's style, it's kind of baffling that they haven't focused more energy on this. 

 

If the Bills could have run the ball effectively against Houston, whole different ballgame. 

 

The Titans are the Bills with a run game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. This is exactly why the Bills need to get a MUCH stronger run game going. They need to add a RUN BLOCKING LG/RT AND another back.

 

 I've wondered that about Spain.  Given our poor success running up the middle - who is that on?  Morse?  Spain?  A combination?

 

Quote

Given McDermott's style, it's kind of baffling that they haven't focused more energy on this. 

If the Bills could have run the ball effectively against Houston, whole different ballgame. 

 

So of course one of the puzzles is that Singletary, in his 13 carries, gained 4.5 ypc.  Now that isn't fantastic, but it's not chopped liver, either.

We had several series where Singletary gained effective yards then was stuffed and we then ran 6 more plays without once trying to get back to him.  Do they have him on a pitch count or something?

 

Seems other teams get stuffed on the run 1-2 plays but they keep at it.  We only seem to do that if it's Gore and his routine 1 ypc.

 

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Making the playoffs as 6th or 5th seed after a 17 year drought was awesome. That said, we don't want to become the Cincinnati "One 'n Done" Bengals.

 

What we have after 2 years is a good start, nothing more.  We have a Championship Caliber D. Don't waste it.

 

Now it's time for Josh to kick it up a notch. If he can't this year start looking for someone that can.

 

The reset button approach has not worked for this team either.....just saying

 

This is moot though.....I think Josh Allen takes another step this next season.

[JMF2006]

15 hours ago, chongli said:

 

EJ Manuel says hi.

 

I was at that Draft Party in the Jim Kelly Club with my GF.

 

When they traded down I cheered

 

Then 16 came and I wanted them to trade down again they didn't 

 

When they picked EJ I nearly cried.

 

The thing is with EJ I hoped and prayed he would turn out ok.

 

With Josh its different I know deep down that the kid is going to be good.