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Article comparing Josh Allen to other 1st round QBs

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

It IS good enough

 

And if you abandon a QB that you draft and is getting better year to year in every category....then you deserve the decades of failure that this team has endured.

 

We have a QB with talent.....give him what he needs to succeed and stop hitting the ***** reset button on this team

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill or the Bucs with Crab Legs.

 

If next year Josh doesn't make big strides you have to consider cutting bait.  Don't go down with the ship.  Otherwise you may end up not in QB purgatory, but QB limbo instead.  Neither works.

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6 hours ago, entropyrules said:

Year 3 will be the deal maker or breaker with Allen...Darn I hope he hope he makes an improvement as at my age I only have one or two more cycles of waiting for the Bills to find a QB...overall great article summing up his progression

Get Josh some more WR's! Sheesh we have been weak at WR forever now! Love the Beasley signing, now get a deep threat and some big bodies that can catch the ball.

 

 

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Just now, reddogblitz said:

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill or the Bucs with Crab Legs.

 

If next year Josh doesn't make big strides you have to consider cutting bait.  Don't go down with the ship.  Otherwise you may end up not in QB purgatory, but QB limbo instead.  Neither works.

There is NOTHING to indicate that Josh Allen is going to show regression.....all arrows are pointing up

 

This whole topic is frankily stupid

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5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It IS good enough

 

And if you abandon a QB that you draft and is getting better year to year in every category....then you deserve the decades of failure that this team has endured.

 

We have a QB with talent.....give him what he needs to succeed and stop hitting the ***** reset button on this team

A little each season isn't good enough. I get that a lot of you don't want to start over again but by year 3 Allen should make a big jump. He should be in the top half for QBs. If not they should start looking for better. 

 

Why so many Bills fans have low expectations is beyond me. 

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Just now, John from Riverside said:

There is NOTHING to indicate that Josh Allen is going to show regression.....all arrows are pointing up

 

This whole topic is frankily stupid

 

It's called contingency planning.  I'm thinking Beane does this too.  Or at least I hope he does.

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21 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

EJ Manuel says hi.

 

 

EJ Manuel did not have nowhere near the talent that Allen has.  Nice try though.

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Just now, Jrb1979 said:

A little each season isn't good enough. I get that a lot of you don't want to start over again but by year 3 Allen should make a big jump. He should be in the top half for QBs. If not they should start looking for better. 

 

Why so many Bills fans have low expectations is beyond me. 

It isnt A LITTLE.....for christ sake LOOK IT UP

Just now, reddogblitz said:

 

It's called contingency planning.  I'm thinking Beane does this too.  Or at least I hope he does.

I am not saying dont draft a QB under any circumstances......but those high picks need to be used to help our CURRENT qb

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7 hours ago, entropyrules said:

Year 3 will be the deal maker or breaker with Allen...Darn I hope he hope he makes an improvement as at my age I only have one or two more cycles of waiting for the Bills to find a QB...overall great article summing up his progression

It is is not. People gotta stop with this, Josh is hear for the long haul.

 

He would have to be way worse than his rookie year for a couple more years before they even thought about replacing him. McBeane will sink or swim with Allen and they aren't going to replace him that easy.

 

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2 hours ago, H2o said:

I would like to remind everyone that Ben Ro was worse in his 3rd year than in his first two seasons. After that he had a really good 4th year and then a down 5th. After that he sort of leveled out. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/benroethlisberger/2506109/careerstats

 

 

This is a great reminder. I looked up Big Ben this year as well.

 

I think the differences aren't much to be honest. He didn't hit his stride as a big time QB until year 6. Steelers football was mostly a running game with 20-25 passes. Ben was pretty much a game manager with a deep ball to keep the safeties honest for the 1st 5 years.

 

I don't think no one would care if this was Josh if they committed to the run and we had 1 bruiser, Motor, and a good 3rd guy not named DiMarco.

 

Steelers rookie year for Ben he was on the 2nd best rushing team:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2005-02-07
Year 2 5th best

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2006-02-06

Year 3 was his worst year so far for completion % and INTs and they were 11th

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2007-02-05

Year 4 Good year they were 5th again
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2008-02-04

His first big year was 2009 in year 6 and then they were 19th

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2010-02-08

 

Maybe that is the formula:

-Draft for strong defense and road grinder offense

-Let the QB get his head straight but having a top 5 rushing attack

-Get the right coaching

-Let the game become natural

-Be patient for development

With that strong running game, great defense, and game manager with short passes they made the Super Bowl in year 2. Who did they play? Seattle the 2nd best running team with a strong defense.

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It is hard to fairly evaluate Josh Allen based purely on statistics for a number of reasons:

 

1. The conservative mindset of the coaching staff, in which case 300-yard passing games will always be a rarity.

 

2. The fact that his rushing ability is such a big part of his overall game.

 

That said, there are certainly areas in which he needs to continue to improve in terms of decision-making and accuracy.

 

Bill Parcells once described the 4-year cycle for QBs.

 

Year 1: Rookie season; You are looking for "potential"; however, it is unfair to fully assess a young, rookie QB.

 

Year 2: Given the baseline that was provided in Year 1, are there signs of improvement? If not, then time to move on.

 

Year 3: Should be starting to put things together and play a role in putting the team in playoff position. If not, then time to move on.

 

Year 4: Should know by now whether the QB is a Franchise QB. If he is, you are set. If he isn't, can you still win with him? If the answer is, yes, then start thinking about an upgrade -- if not, then time to move on.

 

I think that Josh has actually been on the fast track with thumbs up for both Year 2 and Year 3 based on the Parcells criteria. With continued improvement (and upgrades to supporting offensive talent), I am hopeful for once and for all that he will prove to be the Franchise QB (i.e. able to keep up in a shootout against an opposing high-powered offense) that the team has been longing for since Kelly.

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2 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

 

Well if Bleacher Report says it, it must be true.  Manual was a horrible pick, Buddy Nix boxed himself into a corner that year and was bound and determined to pick a QB, even though by most experts opinion was the worst draft for QBs in over a decade.  Anybody that truly watched FSU when Manuel was there could of told you he would be a bust.  There are a few FSU grads on this board & they all said Manuel was not the answer.  I will take their word over BR.  

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6 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I some how doubt year 3 is a make or break year you don't draft a QB at 7th overall and toss him to the curb that easily.

 

6 hours ago, entropyrules said:

respectfully disagree..they certainly won't cut him until his contract is up but if he regresses or stays the same next year (assuming he has a better Cast of O characters) they will be on the hunt in the 2021 draft for a QB. it may be a 3rd round flyer but they are not going into his 4th year after no progress wishing and hoping he makes some miraculous leap without at least prepping for his departure at the end of the contract. Now having said that if they become like that Ravens team with Dilfer where the D dominated and the QB was just OK then you are probably right they'll go into 2023 where then they will draft a QB. 

 

 

 

This is a "what if"

 

It will be in the form of either: 

 

1. Not taking the 5th year option

2. Not offering him a new contract (compared to starting QB salary/contract negotiations)  Or at least not one that they can't get out of/afford while looking for a replacement. 

 

They will then be looking for contingency plans whether it be through the draft, FA, or trade. 

 

I have said before, I like Josh, he is electric. When it comes time to re-sign in 4 years, he needs to make HUGE strides to get that contract. Take a look at this roster and subtract $30-40M of players from it. Then ask if we can win 10+ games every year with it. 

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2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That frankly doesnt mean much

 

Josh Allen came out of a strong QB draft....EJ Manuel came out of a weak one

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

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1 minute ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

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18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

 

All I was trying to say was the Manuel was thought of as a good QB too when he came out, as Josh was, but Manuel fluttered. I hope Josh succeeds, but I agree that 2020 will be a make-or-break year for Josh. If he doesn't step it up next year, it will be time for the Bills to bring in some competition and draft a QB in 2021. Right now, Josh is the 4th best QB from the class of 2018, behind Jackson, Darnold, and Mayfield.

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40 minutes ago, Mango said:

I have said before, I like Josh, he is electric. When it comes time to re-sign in 4 years, he needs to make HUGE strides to get that contract. Take a look at this roster and subtract $30-40M of players from it. Then ask if we can win 10+ games every year with it. 

 

This is the reason I hope we press the issue some in free agency and the draft. Bills have a two year window before Josh gets expensive (assuming he develops).  If he doesn't develop we're likely rebuilding anyways.

 

The highest upside move is hope Josh develops now and surround him with good enough talent to make a run while he's cheap. Whether or not he's good enough to carry inferior rosters is a question that can wait.    

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am not going to worry about anything regarding him till there is actually something to worry about.

 

increase in all productivity from year 1 to year 2.....NO signs of regression.

 

I expect a similar jump in year 3

I expect improvement once again from Josh! Just not as big of one. I do think that in year 3 his improvement will be in smaller increments. Like the article said. Hitting receivers more in stride, better starts to his games instead of taking a quarter or half to get going. Better recognition of defensive schemes. Overall learning from his mistakes by experience. He already shows toughness, competitiveness and leadership in spades!!! 

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Assuming Allen starts every game next year then he would have 44 games to his name. At that point, it should be pretty clear what kind of QB he’s going to be. 
 

If he is more or less the same next year then I would hate giving him a massive contract extension. I know a lot of people are sold that he’s a franchise QB but I’m not there.

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Just now, Bangarang said:

Assuming Allen starts every game next year then he would have 44 games to his name. At that point, it should be pretty clear what kind of QB he’s going to be. 
 

If he is more or less the same next year then I would hate giving him a massive contract extension. I know a lot of people are sold that he’s a franchise QB but I’m not there.

I don't think there would be any need to. 

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1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill 

tannehill looked like he could play in the nfl with the dolphins when he had some decent talent around him

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The kid has been a ONE MAN GANG since putting on his Wyoming uniform.

 

Allen has NEVER had a premier talent to throw to, unlike every other QB you can mention.

 

Thing is, he still has that one man gang mentality. 

 

If the Bills get themselves a big stud WR (or two), then you can seriously begin to judge what Allen is.

 

A big part of his problem with deep ball accuracy is that he ALWAYS has a very small window to throw in. Also, he rushes on his deep throws and that needs to be coached out of him. A bigger WR will allow him to put more air under those deep throws. With his deep throws to Brown, it almost feels like he hopes Brown can get open instead of throwing him open deep. A bigger stud WR changes all that.

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It’s interesting to think what Allen could do with a DK Metcalf big WR. There’s a case to be made that the Bills simply need to find that #1 WR & #1 TE and the offense should be able to generate another TD per game. Assuming we can do find some more weapons & a big bruising back like Henry we could be a juggernaut in 2020.  

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1 hour ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

The four great predictors.. 1) Lie detectors for detecting truth; 2) IQ tests for measuring how successful someone will be; 3) quarterback rating / QBR for measuring the effectiveness of a quarterback; 4) NFL analysts and fans for detecting who will have a HOF career based on their first 2 seasons.

 

Note: If I was strapped to a lie detector right now it very might well indicate I am telling the truth :).

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