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Article comparing Josh Allen to other 1st round QBs

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1 minute ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

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18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Which of course tells you everything

 

- What were his weapons like

- What was the offense he was in

 

Look....what ppl keep missing......this team is LEADING THE LEAGUE IN DROPPED PASSES.....STILL....it got better when we jettisoned Zay Jones and the KB.....but still a lot.  A offense that is still a work in progress.....with 9 new starters on that side of the ball.

 

It is my hope that this offseason will be about biulding the offense.

 

All I was trying to say was the Manuel was thought of as a good QB too when he came out, as Josh was, but Manuel fluttered. I hope Josh succeeds, but I agree that 2020 will be a make-or-break year for Josh. If he doesn't step it up next year, it will be time for the Bills to bring in some competition and draft a QB in 2021. Right now, Josh is the 4th best QB from the class of 2018, behind Jackson, Darnold, and Mayfield.

Edited by chongli

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40 minutes ago, Mango said:

I have said before, I like Josh, he is electric. When it comes time to re-sign in 4 years, he needs to make HUGE strides to get that contract. Take a look at this roster and subtract $30-40M of players from it. Then ask if we can win 10+ games every year with it. 

 

This is the reason I hope we press the issue some in free agency and the draft. Bills have a two year window before Josh gets expensive (assuming he develops).  If he doesn't develop we're likely rebuilding anyways.

 

The highest upside move is hope Josh develops now and surround him with good enough talent to make a run while he's cheap. Whether or not he's good enough to carry inferior rosters is a question that can wait.    

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am not going to worry about anything regarding him till there is actually something to worry about.

 

increase in all productivity from year 1 to year 2.....NO signs of regression.

 

I expect a similar jump in year 3

I expect improvement once again from Josh! Just not as big of one. I do think that in year 3 his improvement will be in smaller increments. Like the article said. Hitting receivers more in stride, better starts to his games instead of taking a quarter or half to get going. Better recognition of defensive schemes. Overall learning from his mistakes by experience. He already shows toughness, competitiveness and leadership in spades!!! 

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Assuming Allen starts every game next year then he would have 44 games to his name. At that point, it should be pretty clear what kind of QB he’s going to be. 
 

If he is more or less the same next year then I would hate giving him a massive contract extension. I know a lot of people are sold that he’s a franchise QB but I’m not there.

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Just now, Bangarang said:

Assuming Allen starts every game next year then he would have 44 games to his name. At that point, it should be pretty clear what kind of QB he’s going to be. 
 

If he is more or less the same next year then I would hate giving him a massive contract extension. I know a lot of people are sold that he’s a franchise QB but I’m not there.

I don't think there would be any need to. 

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1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Or, if you hang onto your QB that you drafted high too long thinking he just about to hit it, you end up like the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill 

tannehill looked like he could play in the nfl with the dolphins when he had some decent talent around him

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The kid has been a ONE MAN GANG since putting on his Wyoming uniform.

 

Allen has NEVER had a premier talent to throw to, unlike every other QB you can mention.

 

Thing is, he still has that one man gang mentality. 

 

If the Bills get themselves a big stud WR (or two), then you can seriously begin to judge what Allen is.

 

A big part of his problem with deep ball accuracy is that he ALWAYS has a very small window to throw in. Also, he rushes on his deep throws and that needs to be coached out of him. A bigger WR will allow him to put more air under those deep throws. With his deep throws to Brown, it almost feels like he hopes Brown can get open instead of throwing him open deep. A bigger stud WR changes all that.

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It’s interesting to think what Allen could do with a DK Metcalf big WR. There’s a case to be made that the Bills simply need to find that #1 WR & #1 TE and the offense should be able to generate another TD per game. Assuming we can do find some more weapons & a big bruising back like Henry we could be a juggernaut in 2020.  

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1 hour ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

The four great predictors.. 1) Lie detectors for detecting truth; 2) IQ tests for measuring how successful someone will be; 3) quarterback rating / QBR for measuring the effectiveness of a quarterback; 4) NFL analysts and fans for detecting who will have a HOF career based on their first 2 seasons.

 

Note: If I was strapped to a lie detector right now it very might well indicate I am telling the truth :).

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3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

The article didnt seem to take into account total yardage and total touchdowns when compared to other qbs.  It also didnt seem to take into account w-l pct%.

 

Hard to make comparisons when you dont include the entirety of his game.

W-L % is not a Qb stat. 

 

It did take totals into account.  He's behind in passing yards, and up there in rushing yards. 

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2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

That isn't good enough. At some point he needs to make a big jump. The playoffs has shown you need you QB and offense to put up more points then what the Bills averaged. 17-19 points is not good enough. Next season will be a big test. There is no way they have such an easy schedule playing so many teams below .500 again. 

Except from the article.... 

 

".....overall steps are being taken forward.

But they are just that, steps, rather than the leaps seen by other young QBs across the league. For some of you, that may keep you more on the fence through two seasons and that is okay. I myself still think the jury remains out on Allen and all his fellow 2018 QBs."

 

This is where my feelings are.  He needs a big jump.  Waiting 4-5 years for a Qb to develop is not acceptable today.  Year 3 he should jump to middle of the pack in Qb stats at minimum.  If that doesn't happen, pull the trigger and draft another Qb. 

Edited by TwistofFate
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27 minutes ago, njbuff said:

A big part of his problem with deep ball accuracy is that he ALWAYS has a very small window to throw in. Also, he rushes on his deep throws and that needs to be coached out of him. A bigger WR will allow him to put more air under those deep throws. With his deep throws to Brown, it almost feels like he hopes Brown can get open instead of throwing him open deep. A bigger stud WR changes all that.

 

A big stud WR that is not only huge but outrunning NFL CBs for deep balls. Are we talking about Randy Moss?? If we had Tyreke Hill would he be too small for Josh too? 

 

His problem with deep balls is that he isn't accurate on throws that require touch, especially long ones. He's missing Brown, Knox, Foser, etc. by 5-10 yards sometimes on deep passes. No one is making those catches. I suspect it'll be a big point of emphasis this off season and he'll get it cleaned up just like he did with the intermediate throws.   

Edited by VW82
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2 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Really?? EJ's QB rating was 77.7 his first year, while Josh''s was only 67.9.

Stands to reason as EJ was a far, far more developed QB coming out of college than Josh Allen. 
 

It amazes me that some are so quick to dismiss Allen’s lack of proper QB development vs. that of his peers,  many of whom were being groomed since middle school, attended elite development camps, became star recruits in high school, went on to lead major college programs, and received high level coaching. 
 

Allen got none of that. Instead of knocking him for not being a polished gem currently, perhaps we should give him some credit for reaching this stage in the first place IN SPITE of receiving none of the advantages that 1st round QBs typically get throughout their journey to the NFL. 

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we all knew there would be some that just couldn't stand to watch a qb develop, which is exactly what we knew we had to do with josh.  don't get me wrong...he needs to take a big step again next year, but we'll see him on this team for at least 2 more years.  they're not going to dump him before that.  he needs to keep working like he has, and this team needs to keep giving him the tools to succeed.  i think both of those will happen this off season.

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30 minutes ago, teef said:

we all knew there would be some that just couldn't stand to watch a qb develop, which is exactly what we knew we had to do with josh.  don't get me wrong...he needs to take a big step again next year, but we'll see him on this team for at least 2 more years.  they're not going to dump him before that.  he needs to keep working like he has, and this team needs to keep giving him the tools to succeed.  i think both of those will happen this off season.

 

Well said.

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54 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

W-L % is not a Qb stat. 

 

It did take totals into account.  He's behind in passing yards, and up there in rushing yards. 

No, it’s a team stat

 

But it’s typically indicative of decent quarterback play.

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9 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I some how doubt year 3 is a make or break year you don't draft a QB at 7th overall and toss him to the curb that easily.

 

the team won't cut him but as fans we will know if he is a franchise QB or not 

 

If he has the same stats he did this season we aren't winning more than 6-8 games, not against that schedule. 

Edited by Penfield45

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3 hours ago, chongli said:

 

All I was trying to say was the Manuel was thought of as a good QB too when he came out, as Josh was, but Manuel fluttered. I hope Josh succeeds, but I agree that 2020 will be a make-or-break year for Josh. If he doesn't step it up next year, it will be time for the Bills to bring in some competition and draft a QB in 2021. Right now, Josh is the 4th best QB from the class of 2018, behind Jackson, Darnold, and Mayfield.

How do you figure that Allen is behind Darnold and Mayfield?

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51 minutes ago, K-9 said:

But it’s typically indicative of decent quarterback play.

 

QBs job is to win.

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