Barnwell: All the RBs who could get paid this offseason & why recent extensions have been disasters

[DCOrange]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

Melvin Gordon: franchise tag, especially if the Chargers let Rivers walk.

Derrick Henry: re-signed due to Titans valuing him more than other teams would.

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

Jordan Howard: likely to hit free agency and sign a very small deal (he suggests 1 year $2 million)

Christian McCaffrey: long-term extension, maybe highest paid RB in the league

Leonard Fournette: Jags pick up his 5th year option, though Barnwell thinks they should be very hesitant about it

Dalvin Cook: likely to be re-signed, though Barnwell thinks they should let him walk

Alvin Kamara: long-term extension around 4 years $60 million

Marlon Mack: long-term extension around 4 years $30 million

Aaron Jones: Potential for another Gordon/LeVeon type of situation

James Connor: should let him play out his contract and re-evaluate

Chris Carson: Let him play out his contract

Joe Mixon: Let him play out his contract before likely re-signing him

Tarik Cohen: -shrugs-

Kareem Hunt, Austin Ekeler, and Matt Breida: likely re-signed to short-term deals

Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, and Jerick McKinnon: likely cap casualties in the offseason

 

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Interesting.  Drake, Cohen, Ekeler Freeman and Lewis would all make a nice compliment to Singletary, especially at the right price.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Singletary will see the most touches next year. Look for Beane to draft a guy in rounds 4-6 with one of the multiple picks the Bills have in each of those rounds.

save the FA money to fix other positions. 
find a cheap vet running back if needed like a Dion Lewis. 

Edited November 21, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[ProcessYaDigg]

I have a feeling that Gore might stick around with us for one more year.

[whatdrought]

I wouldn’t hate having Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard as a power complement to Motor.

[Dkollidas]

2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I wouldn’t hate having Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard as a power complement to Motor.

I think Henry will be expensive and will stay in Tennessee. Howard could be a nice option.

I wouldn’t count out Gore coming back.

 

i also wouldn’t count out signing a veteran who’s a receiving type and draft a pounder late in the draft (AJ Dillon Round 5?) 

[GoBills808]

As always, this says to me in huge flashing letters DON'T DRAFT RBS IN THE FIRST ROUND (also don't spent big $$ in FA either)

 

Think about Fournette- he's a good back. And sure the Jags were still in the end stages of deciding what to do about Bortles. But they took Fournette with the FOURTH OVERALL PICK and passed on both Watson and Mahomes in the process and the kicker is- he's not even a top 5 running back IN HIS OWN DRAFT CLASS

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

......Neon Deon made an interesting comment on NFLN about players getting paid/extended.. not about RB but about Saints WR Michael Thomas.....said, "many guys coast after getting paid but Thomas has taken it to another level....he's gone the other way"......

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

......Neon Deon made an interesting comment on NFLN about players getting paid/extended.. not about RB but about Saints WR Michael Thomas.....said, "many guys coast after getting paid but Thomas has taken it to another level....he's gone the other way"......

 

Thomas has been a beast.  Could be the NFL MVP, if that ever went to a WR.  Dominates game in and out.  

[Plano]

1 hour ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

I have a feeling that Gore might stick around with us for one more year.

Hopefully he retires this year after we win the SB

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Thomas has been a beast.  Could be the NFL MVP, if that ever went to a WR.  Dominates game in and out.  

It will probably never happen for a WR to be MVP, because usually the QB gets the credit for a productive WR. But IF it ever could happen, this would be the year, because Thomas has split time with QB's since Brees missed a bunch of games. Can't give the QB the credit for his production this year.

 

BUT, it will never happen.

[DrDawkinstein]

If I were a GM, I'd never sign a RB to a big contract. I'd draft them in or after the 4th round only. And when their rookie contract was up, draft another late (or even UDFA).

 

Keep 2-3 on the team, all staggered by a year.

 

You can find hungry, driven, hard-running guys to tote the rock almost anywhere.

[Mr. WEO]

Bell, Gurley and Gordon ruined the market for the future.

[thenorthremembers]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

 

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

 

I think he ends up signing with the Cards to be their feature back.  Fully expect them to try and trade Johnson and his contract for a low round pick.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

I think he ends up signing with the Cards to be their feature back.  Fully expect them to try and trade Johnson and his contract for a low round pick.

Will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out. Barnwell's theory is that they won't be able to find a taker for Johnson and they like Edmonds enough and are already paying Johnson a ton so they'll just roll with those two and maybe a draft prospect.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Interesting.  Drake, Cohen, Ekeler Freeman and Lewis would all make a nice compliment to Singletary, especially at the right price.

 

Agreed.  They should all be relatively cheap too.  2nd tier RBs ended up with Annual Average values below 3 mil and total guarantee's of about 3.  Figure with some inflation - and a lot more talent.  4? per year maybe less? 

[billsbackto81]

4 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

I have a feeling that Gore might stick around with us for one more year.

Oh heck no!!

He's ready for the glue factory. Rather have AP and Motor. AP showed he still has strength and speed with a less than stellar O line. Gore? Not so much. We can acquire a better option to compliment Devin. APs checkered past might rub some the wrong way but he's clearly the better back at this stage.

[billsfan89]

The Bills are pretty set at RB with Singletary being the all around back and Yeldon being a backup receiving back. They just need to replace Gore as a between the tackles runner who can absorb 25-35% of the snaps in the short yardage and early down situations. That will either come with a lower mid-level free agency decision (probably something in the range of 3-4 million) or in the mid rounds of the draft. 

[Malazan]

This reads more like a list of why you don't pay a RB money...How many of those guys are clearly separated from the rest?

[JDubya76]

Ekeler all day long. He’s a multi-tool, Swiss Army knife 

Edited November 21, 2019 by JDubya76

[PetermansRedemption]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Agreed.  They should all be relatively cheap too.  2nd tier RBs ended up with Annual Average values below 3 mil and total guarantee's of about 3.  Figure with some inflation - and a lot more talent.  4? per year maybe less? 

I’m not sure Ekeler will be cheap, but the rest may. 

[jrober38]

Never pay a running back on their 2nd contract.

 

Just draft guys or sign guys at the end of their career and leave out everything in between. 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Singletary will see the most touches next year. Look for Beane to draft a guy in rounds 4-6 with one of the multiple picks the Bills have in each of those rounds.

save the FA money to fix other positions. 
find a cheap vet running back if needed like a Dion Lewis. 

Not if he keeps fumbling!!

[billsfan_34]

9 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

I have a feeling that Gore might stick around with us for one more year.

Gore needs to retire

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

 

I hate timeshares, always deceptive.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m not sure Ekeler will be cheap, but the rest may. 

 

He's an RFA anyway so I don't think he's on the radar

[Sherlock Holmes]

12 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

Melvin Gordon: franchise tag, especially if the Chargers let Rivers walk.

Derrick Henry: re-signed due to Titans valuing him more than other teams would.

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

Jordan Howard: likely to hit free agency and sign a very small deal (he suggests 1 year $2 million)

Christian McCaffrey: long-term extension, maybe highest paid RB in the league

Leonard Fournette: Jags pick up his 5th year option, though Barnwell thinks they should be very hesitant about it

Dalvin Cook: likely to be re-signed, though Barnwell thinks they should let him walk

Alvin Kamara: long-term extension around 4 years $60 million

Marlon Mack: long-term extension around 4 years $30 million

Aaron Jones: Potential for another Gordon/LeVeon type of situation

James Connor: should let him play out his contract and re-evaluate

Chris Carson: Let him play out his contract

Joe Mixon: Let him play out his contract before likely re-signing him

Tarik Cohen: -shrugs-

Kareem Hunt, Austin Ekeler, and Matt Breida: likely re-signed to short-term deals

Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, and Jerick McKinnon: likely cap casualties in the offseason

 

Carolina has a rebuild coming, let us make McCaffrey the highest paid RB..and Kuechly one of the highest LBs

[Thurman#1]

OP, nice find from Barnwell.

 

Thanks for posting it.

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28121690/all-nfl-running-backs-get-paid-2020-why-recent-deals-look-disasters

 

As always, a good read from Barnwell on a topic that definitely has not at all been beaten to death: the value of RBs.

 

TLDR:

 

Melvin Gordon: franchise tag, especially if the Chargers let Rivers walk.

Derrick Henry: re-signed due to Titans valuing him more than other teams would.

Kenyan Drake: likely to hit free agency and sign as the lesser role in a timeshare

Jordan Howard: likely to hit free agency and sign a very small deal (he suggests 1 year $2 million)

Christian McCaffrey: long-term extension, maybe highest paid RB in the league

Leonard Fournette: Jags pick up his 5th year option, though Barnwell thinks they should be very hesitant about it

Dalvin Cook: likely to be re-signed, though Barnwell thinks they should let him walk

Alvin Kamara: long-term extension around 4 years $60 million

Marlon Mack: long-term extension around 4 years $30 million

Aaron Jones: Potential for another Gordon/LeVeon type of situation

James Connor: should let him play out his contract and re-evaluate

Chris Carson: Let him play out his contract

Joe Mixon: Let him play out his contract before likely re-signing him

Tarik Cohen: -shrugs-

Kareem Hunt, Austin Ekeler, and Matt Breida: likely re-signed to short-term deals

Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, and Jerick McKinnon: likely cap casualties in the offseason

 

 

I'd sign Austin Ekeler. He is the best pass catching back in the league. If the Bills are after thumper willing to play 2nd fiddle to Singletary replacing the Gore role I'd consider Jordan Howard on a small short term deal. I don't think he is great but if they want that style of back he can be reasonably productive.

11 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Never pay a running back on their 2nd contract.

 

Just draft guys or sign guys at the end of their career and leave out everything in between. 

 

Unless they are a pass game weapon too. That is my view. Guys who are at their best as early down thumpers should never get a 2nd deal even really good ones like Delvin Cook. Alvin Kamara, Christian MCaffrey.... yea.... you re-sign those guys.

[eball]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd sign Austin Ekeler. He is the best pass catching back in the league. If the Bills are after thumper willing to play 2nd fiddle to Singletary replacing the Gore role I'd consider Jordan Howard on a small short term deal. I don't think he is great but if they want that style of back he can be reasonably productive.

 

Unless they are a pass game weapon too. That is my view. Guys who are at their best as early down thumpers should never get a 2nd deal even really good ones like Delvin Cook. Alvin Kamara, Christian MCaffrey.... yea.... you re-sign those guys.

 

Ekeler is a beast.  Would be a great complement to Singletary.  Keep Gore for another year to pound the middle (or draft such a guy 5th or later).

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Ekeler is a beast.  Would be a great complement to Singletary.  Keep Gore for another year to pound the middle (or draft such a guy 5th or later).

 

Gore should retire.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Carolina has a rebuild coming, let us make McCaffrey the highest paid RB..and Kuechly one of the highest LBs

 

Kuechly is under contract for 2 more years... reasonable price - why would you release him?  As for McCaffrey - same thing, 1 more year on his deal and a 5th year option.  

 

MVP candidate and a 5 time first team all-pro LB... those are things you build around.

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Ekeler is a beast.  Would be a great complement to Singletary.  Keep Gore for another year to pound the middle (or draft such a guy 5th or later).

 

None of these guys are available in 2020 (Cook, McCaffrey, Kamara).  Ekeler is a RFA - but he's going to get a fairly high tender so you'd have to overpay and give up probably a 2nd round pick.  Cook and Kamara are in the last year of rookie deals so they'll want to negotiate extensions, and possibly be trade candidates if negotiations are far apart - but they aren't available to sign so they will cost you picks.

[Sherlock Holmes]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Kuechly is under contract for 2 more years... reasonable price - why would you release him?  As for McCaffrey - same thing, 1 more year on his deal and a 5th year option.  

 

MVP candidate and a 5 time first team all-pro LB... those are things you build around.

 

None of these guys are available in 2020 (Cook, McCaffrey, Kamara).  Ekeler is a RFA - but he's going to get a fairly high tender so you'd have to overpay and give up probably a 2nd round pick.  Cook and Kamara are in the last year of rookie deals so they'll want to negotiate extensions, and possibly be trade candidates if negotiations are far apart - but they aren't available to sign so they will cost you picks.

I'm talking trade with them.., if anybody has first dibs it is us, thank God!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Sherlock Holmes said:

I'm talking trade with them.., if anybody has first dibs it is us, thank God!

 

I'm saying - there are certain teams that have players they won't trade.  These are those players, they're the building blocks.  Players that get traded at this point have become distractions, problems, not played to their potential etc.  Not 5 time all-pros and MVP caliber running backs.

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd sign Austin Ekeler. He is the best pass catching back in the league. If the Bills are after thumper willing to play 2nd fiddle to Singletary replacing the Gore role I'd consider Jordan Howard on a small short term deal. I don't think he is great but if they want that style of back he can be reasonably productive.

 

Unless they are a pass game weapon too. That is my view. Guys who are at their best as early down thumpers should never get a 2nd deal even really good ones like Delvin Cook. Alvin Kamara, Christian MCaffrey.... yea.... you re-sign those guys.

 

I disagree.

 

I have no problem using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a running back every few years, and paying those guys $2-3 mil a year in the prime of their career, vs allocating more resources to a veteran on their second contract. 

 

IMO running back is one of the least valuable positions in the league based off what it costs to sign guys after their rookie deal. Just keep drafting young guys and discard them when their rookie deal is up. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

[DrDawkinstein]

43 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

I'm talking trade with them.., if anybody has first dibs it is us, thank God!

 

I love McCaffery so I understand where you are coming from. I wanted us to draft him even if it went against my "no 1st rd RBs" rule, and was fearful that he would land with the Pats.

 

But trading assets (most likely a 1st, at least) AND having to sink so much cap space into him just isnt good business.

 

I'm all for it in theory, he is probably the only RB I'd say is worth a big contract, but it doesnt make practical sense. Good point about our connection to Carolina tho!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I have no problem using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a running back every few years, and paying those guys $2-3 mil a year in the prime of their career, vs allocating more resources to a veteran on their second contract. 

 

IMO running back is one of the least valuable positions in the league based off what it costs to sign guys after their rookie deal. Just keep drafting young guys and discard them when their rookie deal is up. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

 

Fair enough. But I make the distinction between just running back and "offensive weapon"

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Fair enough. But I make the distinction between just running back and "offensive weapon"

 

That's fair.

 

My stance is that there are so many injuries to running backs, that the investment usually won't pan out. I'm not saying guys like McCaffey and Kamara won't continue to play well, but I'm not paying those guys $15-18 mil a year when I could just draft a guy and pay him $3 mil a year for the best four years of his career. 

 

I'd much rather spend that money on other more premium positions. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I love McCaffery so I understand where you are coming from. I wanted us to draft him even if it went against my "no 1st rd RBs" rule, and was fearful that he would land with the Pats.

 

But trading assets (most likely a 1st, at least) AND having to sink so much cap space into him just isnt good business.

 

I'm all for it in theory, he is probably the only RB I'd say is worth a big contract, but it doesnt make practical sense. Good point about our connection to Carolina tho!

I know we'd probably give up huge amounts of picks but I know McCafe is gonna be the GOAT at RB. You don't find those every year, same with Kuechly. I'm willing to give up extra for known talent rather than trade up and waste away picks anyway like with Zay when Kupp is there for free. It would put us over that hump and make us a dynasty that would rival the Pats... especially if we could also find a way to get Kupp and Joey Bosa.

 

Boom our team has all it's centerpieces for years even if it only has late picks for the next 3 years.

[Logic]

Draft a couple of running backs in rounds 3-5. Ride them through their rookie contracts. Let them walk and draft two more. Rinse and repeat.