Inigo Montoya Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) I have been reading up on Ed Oliver's draft evaluations and the frequent comparisons to Aaron Donald (it's going to be a long time until training camp...). I decided to look at what Donald did in his rookie campaign. He played in all 16 games, starting in 12 of them. He recorded 9 sacks his rookie season. I though we could do an over / under on Oliver's sack total this year based on Donald's first season where he had 9 sacks. Might want to add why you feel that way too. Aaron Donald Career Stats Games Def Interceptions Fumbles Tackles Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV Career 78 74 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 4 40 0 59.5 263 189 74 97 149 76 2014* 23 STL LDT/rdt 99 16 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 9.0 47 37 10 18 13 11 2015*+ 24 STL LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 40 0 11.0 69 43 26 22 37 20 2016*+ 25 LAR dt/LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 8.0 47 36 11 17 31 15 2017*+ 26 LAR DT/lb 99 14 14 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 11.0 41 32 9 15 27 15 2018*+ 27 LAR DT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 20.5 59 41 18 25 41 15 So plant your flag. Go for broke. Make a stand. Go all in. Be bold. Draw a line in the sand. Ed Oliver Sacks 2019; Over / Under 9 I think Oliver is landing in a good situation in Buffalo. I think he will benefit from defensive coaching that will scheme to get him production. McDermott and Frazier like to rotate DTs so Oliver should still be fresh in the 4th quarter of games when the 300 lb lineman opposite him are wearing down. Having Hughes coming off the edge will help flush the QB up in the pocket where Oliver will be pushing. Oliver is quick enough to stunt with Hughes and create mismatches all along the line and sow havoc with blocking assignments for the offensive lineman. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least 10 sacks this season. Inigo says anything less than 9 is INCONCEIVABLE! I say over. Edited June 15, 2019 by Inigo Montoya 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigo Montoya Posted June 15, 2019 Author Share Posted June 15, 2019 1 minute ago, fansince88 said: Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. Gutsy call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 I’ll guess under, but think I’ll still be happy when the season is over. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) I bet he gets around 10-11 true sacks. His speed and twitch is going to confuse defenses for awhile. It depends how he is going to be utilized...he will be disruptive. I have a feeling he will spending a lot of time in the opposing backfield. Therefore just above a 50% chance of 9+ Edited June 15, 2019 by Rocket94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter McGavin Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers? If he gets 7 sacks with penetration to mess up run plays I’ll be happy. Any more and I’m thrilled, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: Gutsy call! Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigo Montoya Posted June 15, 2019 Author Share Posted June 15, 2019 Just now, fansince88 said: Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think? I agree. Don't tell your wife. ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under. He's a rookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Just now, fansince88 said: Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think? Will your wife notice? That’s the tipping point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under 9 is a bit cocky 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Augie said: Will your wife notice? That’s the tipping point. 6 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: I agree. Don't tell your wife. ? Id kick in more but I have a wedding to pay for in August and we are getting the sausage as an add on so.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Well, Kyle has averaged 4 in the past two years under McD. I think it’s stretch to say Oliver comes in a whole lot higher than that. I’d say 6 is a realistic number. I do think they will be working hard to generate pressure in creative ways, and that might free him up for sacks, but I doubt he gets a ton. I think over under on Jerry should be set at 9 and the over under on Murphy should be set at 5. for that I’d take the over on both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 1 minute ago, fansince88 said: Id kick in more but I have a wedding to pay for in August and we are getting the sausage as an add on so.... CONGRATULATIONS! Adding on the sausage is always a tough choice...but the way to go. I expect a wedding in our not too distant future. Our son’s GF used to be a wedding planner, did over 300 a year. She thinks people are CRAZY with how much they spend! She wants to keep is small, then we put together just our side of “must have family”, and I see how it gets out of control. It’s a fine down payment on a house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Augie said: CONGRATULATIONS! Adding on the sausage is always a tough choice...but the way to go. I expect a wedding in our not too distant future. Our son’s GF used to be a wedding planner, did over 300 a year. She thinks people are CRAZY with how much they spend! She wants to keep is small, then we put together just our side of “must have family”, and I see how it gets out of control. It’s a fine down payment on a house! Haha. We are going to be over 200 people. Large italian family on both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil The Thrill Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under...5 sacks for Ed O 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubba Gump Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 I'll take the push and say he gets 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Haha. We are going to be over 200 people. Large italian family on both sides. Love every minute! My wife is Lebanese, and her father was for decades the only dentist in the small town of Rock Hill, SC. We were well over 500. If a single non-blood relation attends.....where do you draw the line? We sent my son a list of “must have” family and it was 40-50. I can see how you get to 200 in a hurry! His GF is one of SIX girls in the family! You could work your whole life just to afford to marry them off! Thank God her family is awesome and her dad is quite successful. But there are limits! Yowza! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Augie said: I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers? Um...I'm not a mathematician, but what if he gets EXACTLY 9 sacks? That's neither over nine nor under nine, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) I'll take the under, and say he finishes with a very respectable 7. Hughes on the other hand should benefit from the interior havoc and collect double digits. Edited June 15, 2019 by Drunken Pygmy Goat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 QB as cakewalk MVP Best D in the history of football From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigo Montoya Posted June 15, 2019 Author Share Posted June 15, 2019 1 hour ago, row_33 said: QB as cakewalk MVP Best D in the history of football From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing It's true. They are already making a movie about it; Josh Wick "They had no idea when they shot his football that they had just signed their own death warrants and unleashed Hell..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfansinceday1 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 I will say under but not by a lot. I will also predict that he will be a PIA for opposing QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Aaron Donald got nine sacks playing about 67% of the defensive snaps his rookie year. The Bills would have to play him as often as they did Kyle Williams (about 65%) last year to come close to that number. I'll go under because of how often McDermott likes to rotate his DT's and he's just a rookie so he could be another Glenn Dorsey or John McCargo for all we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Double digits. There will be no triple teams with Hughes on the end and what appears to be a healthier Murphy and motivated Shaq. He is also lined up next to a house in Star. His speed will catch OL by surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Aaron Donald got nine sacks playing about 67% of the defensive snaps his rookie year. The Bills would have to play him as often as they did Kyle Williams (about 65%) last year to come close to that number. I'll go under because of how often McDermott likes to rotate his DT's and he's just a rookie so he could be another Glenn Dorsey or John McCargo for all we know. John McCargo looked good in college because he lined up with Mario Williams. Niether faced constant triple teams as a nose. He could end up falling short but not on a McCargo Level and I highly doubt he will not make at least multiple probowls. He has Canton potential, nothing either of those two had. Edited June 15, 2019 by formerlyofCtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 6 hours ago, Augie said: Love every minute! My wife is Lebanese, and her father was for decades the only dentist in the small town of Rock Hill, SC. We were well over 500. If a single non-blood relation attends.....where do you draw the line? We sent my son a list of “must have” family and it was 40-50. I can see how you get to 200 in a hurry! His GF is one of SIX girls in the family! You could work your whole life just to afford to marry them off! Thank God her family is awesome and her dad is quite successful. But there are limits! Yowza! Invites went out this week. Rsvp is due in a month. We actually sent north of 200. She is the kind of girl that had 20 kids say they were coming to her birthday party and 4 showed ip. That was alot of pizza left over. If just aunts, uncles, 1st and second cousins show up it will be 125.we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 I feel 6-10 is his likely year 1 range so am going to go just with the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under. I think Oliver will be a good one but I don’t think DT’s getting over 7 sacks is a healthy bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) If Oliver gets 9 sacks as a rookie DT in a rotational system then I'll be amazed. Edited June 15, 2019 by vincec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said: I agree. Don't tell your wife. ? Wait, wait, wait, can we see see pics of his wife first before we tell him not to tell her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CuddyDark Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Still dependent on how well they do against the run. I see them using Oliver in their nickel packages and on rush downs. If they can't stop the run ~5. If they stop the run 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forward Progress Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 9 would be fantastic, but 5 or 6 would be a great rookie campaign. Under. Hughes, Oliver and a healthy Trent Murphy should get to the quarterback more this year than last. With multiple points of pressure, The QB will run away from the first pressure into the waiting arms of the second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) Over Edited June 15, 2019 by HOUSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 I’m going the under. 6-7 and I’m still wearing bandaids on my nipples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeSomeProcess Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Under thinking 4-6 sacks. He’s going to be a rotational DT and needs some refinement on his pass rush. However I see a large number of tackle for loss, that’s was his strength in college. Overall, he’s still going to be a beast this year. I just think he needs a year of coaching and working in the system to eclipse 9 plus sacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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