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Inigo Montoya

Ed Oliver 2019 Sack Total; Over / Under 9

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Posted (edited)

 

I have been reading up on Ed Oliver's draft evaluations and the frequent comparisons to Aaron Donald (it's going to be a long time until training camp...).  I decided to look at what Donald did in his rookie campaign.  He played in all 16 games, starting in 12 of them.  He recorded 9 sacks his rookie season.  I though we could do an over / under on Oliver's sack total this year based on Donald's first season where he had 9 sacks.  Might want to add why you feel that way too.

 

Aaron Donald Career Stats 

Games Def Interceptions Fumbles   Tackles    
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV
Career       78 74 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 4 40 0 59.5 263 189 74 97 149   76
2014* 23 STL LDT/rdt 99 16 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 9.0 47 37 10 18 13   11
2015*+ 24 STL LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 40 0 11.0 69 43 26 22 37   20
2016*+ 25 LAR dt/LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 8.0 47 36 11 17 31   15
2017*+ 26 LAR DT/lb 99 14 14 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 11.0 41 32 9 15 27   15
2018*+ 27 LAR DT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 20.5 59 41 18 25 41   15

 

So plant your flag.  Go for broke.  Make a stand.  Go all in.   Be bold.  Draw a line in the sand.

 

Ed Oliver Sacks 2019;      Over / Under  9

 

I think Oliver is landing in a good situation in Buffalo.  I think he will benefit from defensive coaching that will scheme to get him production.  McDermott and Frazier like to rotate DTs so Oliver should still be fresh in the 4th quarter of games when the 300 lb lineman opposite him are wearing down.  Having Hughes coming off the edge will help flush the QB up in the pocket where Oliver will be pushing.  Oliver is quick enough to stunt with Hughes and create mismatches all along the line and sow havoc with blocking assignments for the offensive lineman.  I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least 10 sacks this season.

 

Inigo says anything less than 9 is INCONCEIVABLE!    I say over.

 

 
Edited by Inigo Montoya
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Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. 

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1 minute ago, fansince88 said:

Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. 

 

Gutsy call!

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I’ll guess under, but think I’ll still be happy when the season is over. 😋

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Posted (edited)

I bet he gets around 10-11 true sacks. His speed and twitch is going to confuse defenses for awhile. It depends how he is going to be utilized...he will be disruptive. I have a feeling he will spending a lot of time in the opposing backfield. Therefore just above a 50% chance of 9+

Edited by Rocket94

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3 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. 

 

I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers? 

 

 

 

If he gets 7 sacks with penetration to mess up run plays I’ll be happy. Any more and I’m thrilled, 

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6 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Gutsy call!

Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think?

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Just now, fansince88 said:

Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think?

 

 

I agree.  Don't tell your wife.  😉

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Under. He's a rookie.

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Just now, fansince88 said:

Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think?

 

Will your wife notice? That’s the tipping point. 

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Under

 

9 is a bit cocky 

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6 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Will your wife notice? That’s the tipping point. 

 

6 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

I agree.  Don't tell your wife.  😉

Id kick in more but I have a wedding to pay for in August and we are getting the sausage as an add on so....

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Well, Kyle has averaged 4 in the past two years under McD. I think it’s stretch to say Oliver comes in a whole lot higher than that. I’d say 6 is a realistic number. I do think they will be working hard to generate pressure in creative ways, and that might free him up for sacks, but I doubt he gets a ton. 

 

I think over under on Jerry should be set at 9 and the over under on Murphy should be set at 5.

 

for that I’d take the over on both.

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1 minute ago, fansince88 said:

 

Id kick in more but I have a wedding to pay for in August and we are getting the sausage as an add on so....

 

CONGRATULATIONS!

 

Adding on the sausage is always a tough choice...but the way to go.

 

I expect a wedding in our not too distant future. Our son’s GF used to be a wedding planner, did over 300 a year. She thinks people are CRAZY with how much they spend! She wants to keep is small, then we put together just our side of “must have family”, and I see how it gets out of control. It’s a fine down payment on a house! 

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2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

CONGRATULATIONS!

 

Adding on the sausage is always a tough choice...but the way to go.

 

I expect a wedding in our not too distant future. Our son’s GF used to be a wedding planner, did over 300 a year. She thinks people are CRAZY with how much they spend! She wants to keep is small, then we put together just our side of “must have family”, and I see how it gets out of control. It’s a fine down payment on a house! 

Haha. We are going to be over 200 people. Large italian family on both sides. 

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2 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Haha. We are going to be over 200 people. Large italian family on both sides. 

Love every minute! 

 

My wife is Lebanese, and her father was for decades the only dentist in the small town of Rock Hill, SC. We were well over 500. If a single non-blood relation attends.....where do you draw the line? 

 

We sent my son a list of “must have” family and it was 40-50. I can see how you get to 200 in a hurry!  His GF is one of SIX girls in the family! You could work your whole life just to afford to marry them off! Thank God her family is awesome and her dad is quite successful. But there are limits! Yowza! 

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2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers? 

 

Um...I'm not a mathematician, but what if he gets EXACTLY 9 sacks?

 

That's neither over nine nor under nine, right?

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Posted (edited)

I'll take the under, and say he finishes with a very respectable 7. Hughes on the other hand should benefit from the interior havoc and collect double digits.

Edited by Drunken Pygmy Goat
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QB as cakewalk MVP

 

Best D in the history of football

 

From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, row_33 said:

QB as cakewalk MVP

 

Best D in the history of football

 

From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing 

 

 

 

 

 

It's true.

 

They are already making a movie about it;   

 

                                                                      Josh Wick

 

"They had no idea when they shot his football that they had just signed their own death warrants and unleashed Hell..."

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