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Inigo Montoya

Ed Oliver 2019 Sack Total; Over / Under 9

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1 hour ago, Watkins101 said:

So what you're saying is that it there is a 0% chance he gets exactly 9 sacks. Interesting...

I see you are good at math too.

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I would be thrilled to see him get 9 sacks, that's hard as a D-lineman. I just want to see him shrink the pocket and disrupt QB's timing. Sacks are great, pressures and TFL's need to be the norm. We need to really stuff the run and whoever he is paired up with needs to hold their own as well whether Star or Dirty Harry.

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Have to go with the over on that.

 

Loved the Oliver pick for this defense. With all the (healthy) talent the Bills have in the backfield and with his motor. Even if a team gets a block on him the coverage from our secondary will give him enough time to find a way to plant QBs. So a good mix of sacks just based off his quickness and leverage, and a good few coverage sacks because the kid plays till the whistle.

 

This could be a very good first year for Ed.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Under.  I think the kid will be really good but under 

Edited by oldmanfan
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14 hours ago, fansince88 said:

 

Id kick in more but I have a wedding to pay for in August and we are getting the sausage as an add on so....

Use this to help decide what kind of sausage:

 

 

I hope you went all in and also got rolls.

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9 sacks is a really good year for anyone.  For a rookie it's a dream.

 

Under.  

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This isn't a sack happy team, so I'd say around 5 would be solid to great.

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8 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

John McCargo looked good in college because he lined up with Mario Williams.  Niether faced constant triple teams as a nose.  He could end up falling short but not on a McCargo Level and I highly doubt he will not make at least multiple  probowls.  He has Canton potential, nothing either of those two had.

I was just throwing out names of DT's we thought would be good but ended up being busts.  Dorsey is the better example as I remember Falcons fans being pissed they passed on him for Matt Ryan as some touted him as the most explosive player in the draft.  Until I see Oliver dominate NFL caliber o-lineman I'm not going to crown him.  He's more likely to be an all pro than a bust, but you don't really know with a rookie until he actually plays.

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50 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I was just throwing out names of DT's we thought would be good but ended up being busts.  Dorsey is the better example as I remember Falcons fans being pissed they passed on him for Matt Ryan as some touted him as the most explosive player in the draft.  Until I see Oliver dominate NFL caliber o-lineman I'm not going to crown him.  He's more likely to be an all pro than a bust, but you don't really know with a rookie until he actually plays.

Never thought McCargo would be anything special.  Dorsey, nothing special.  Oliver has a floor that makes a PB here and there but I can definitely see it.

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11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Aaron Donald got nine sacks playing about 67% of the defensive snaps his rookie year.  The Bills would have to play him as often as they did Kyle Williams (about 65%) last year to come close to that number.  I'll go under because of how often McDermott likes to rotate his DT's and he's just a rookie so he could be another Glenn Dorsey or John McCargo for all we know.

John McCargo should never be a comp. Dude was not that athletic and was horrible in college. Seriously, how the hell did we draft him in the first, his stats were putrid. 

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Posted (edited)

No wonder this fan base is always disappointed!

 

9 sacks??  Put down the crack pipe.

 

 

14 hours ago, row_33 said:

QB as cakewalk MVP

 

Best D in the history of football

 

From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing 

 

 

I can't wait for the "First team with 3 thousand yard backs?" thread.

Edited by KD in CA

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I think about 6 but I think he'll also create many hurries & some fumbles

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15 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Um...I'm not a mathematician, but what if he gets EXACTLY 9 sacks?

 

That's neither over nine nor under nine, right?

 

You see? THAT is why I don’t gamble!!!   😋

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17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I have been reading up on Ed Oliver's draft evaluations and the frequent comparisons to Aaron Donald (it's going to be a long time until training camp...).  I decided to look at what Donald did in his rookie campaign.  He played in all 16 games, starting in 12 of them.  He recorded 9 sacks his rookie season.  I though we could do an over / under on Oliver's sack total this year based on Donald's first season where he had 9 sacks.  Might want to add why you feel that way too.

 

Aaron Donald Career Stats 

Games Def Interceptions Fumbles   Tackles    
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV
Career       78 74 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 4 40 0 59.5 263 189 74 97 149   76
2014* 23 STL LDT/rdt 99 16 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 9.0 47 37 10 18 13   11
2015*+ 24 STL LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 40 0 11.0 69 43 26 22 37   20
2016*+ 25 LAR dt/LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 8.0 47 36 11 17 31   15
2017*+ 26 LAR DT/lb 99 14 14 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 11.0 41 32 9 15 27   15
2018*+ 27 LAR DT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 20.5 59 41 18 25 41   15

 

So plant your flag.  Go for broke.  Make a stand.  Go all in.   Be bold.  Draw a line in the sand.

 

Ed Oliver Sacks 2019;      Over / Under  9

 

I think Oliver is landing in a good situation in Buffalo.  I think he will benefit from defensive coaching that will scheme to get him production.  McDermott and Frazier like to rotate DTs so Oliver should still be fresh in the 4th quarter of games when the 300 lb lineman opposite him are wearing down.  Having Hughes coming off the edge will help flush the QB up in the pocket where Oliver will be pushing.  Oliver is quick enough to stunt with Hughes and create mismatches all along the line and sow havoc with blocking assignments for the offensive lineman.  I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least 10 sacks this season.

 

Inigo says anything less than 9 is INCONCEIVABLE!    I say over.

 

 

 

Inigo, I love the Princess Bride references so keep them coming, but regarding the question, I’m going with the over.  Star will eat up the middle for the run and Oliver will penetrate with Hughes as you mentioned getting him to 10 is my guess.

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Under.  He’s certainly got that kind of potential, but he is a rookie DT, not many of them put up double digit sacks out the gate.  I think he ends up between 5 and 8 which would be a good start to his career.  I hope he hits double digits, just seems like too high of an expectation to put on his rookie year.  I think his O/U should have been set at 6.5 instead of 9.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Under.  He’s certainly got that kind of potential, but he is a rookie DT, not many of them put up double digit sacks out the gate.  I think he ends up between 5 and 8 which would be a good start to his career.  I hope he hits double digits, just seems like too high of an expectation to put on his rookie year.  I think his O/U should have been set at 6.5 instead of 9.

 

Hey Alphadawg7

 

I picked 9 based on Darnold's rookie campaign sack total. To provide a little context for that number, in Darnold's rookie season,  2014, the St. Louis Rams finished with a 6-10 record.  Their defense was ranked 16th or 17th in the league depending on which criteria you use.  The team finished with 40 total sacks which ranked them 13th in the league.  Robert Quinn led the team in sacks with 10.5 sacks.  So that defense was not some juggernaut that was routinely destroying people that Darnold was playing in.

 

As an aside the #1 team in the league for sacks that year was our very own Buffalo Bills with 54 sacks...

 

Oliver's entire game and value is based on his ability to get into the back field quickly and disrupt. He is a rookie and there is always a concern with how he will transition to the pros and that is something that you need to consider when estimating how productive he will be this year.  I agree with you, if he gives us 7-8 sacks I wouldn't be upset at all, but I think this Bill's defense is going to be really stout, I hope much better than the 16th ranked defense Darnold was playing on his rookie season.   I think with more talent playing along side Oliver, he is going to have more opportunities to produce. Time will tell.  Opening day can't get here fast enough... 

 

Inigo

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya

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6 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Use this to help decide what kind of sausage:

 

 

I hope you went all in and also got rolls.

Yeah, and I made them change the sauce. 

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